The impacts of the Cape Verde self-employed social security scheme

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Adjusting to external imbalances within the EMU, the case of Portugal

From 1995 to 2010 Portugal has accumulated a negative international asset position of 110 percent of GDP. In a developed and aging economy the number is astonishing and any argument to consider it sustainable must rely on extremely favorable forecasts on growth. Portuguese policy options are reduced in number: no autonomous monetary policy, no currency to devaluate, and limited discretion in changing fiscal deficits and government debt. To start the necessary deleveraging a remaining possible policy is a budget-neutral change of the tax structure that increases private saving and net exports. An increase in the VAT and a decrease in the employer’s social security contribution tax can achieve the desired outcome in the short run if they are complemented with wage moderation. To obtain a substantial improvement in competitiveness and a large decrease in consumption, the changes in the tax rates have to be large. While a precise quantitative assessment is difficult, the initial increase in the effective VAT rate needed to allow the social security tax to decrease by 16 percentage points (pp) is approximately 10 pp. Such a large increase in the effective VAT rate could be obtained by raising most of the reduced VAT rates to the new general VAT rate of 23 percent. The empirical analysis shows that over time the suggested tax swap could generate surpluses and improve the trade balance. A temporary version of the suggested tax-swap has the attractiveness to achieve a sharper increase in the private saving rate maintaining the short run gains in competitiveness. Finally, the temporary version of the fiscal devaluation could be the basis for an automatic stabilizer to external imbalances within a monetary union.Portugal has been running large current account deficits every year since 1995. These deficits have accumulated to an astonishing 110 percent of GDP negative external asset position. The sustainability of such a large external position is questionable and must rely on fantastic productivity growth expectations. The recent global financial crisis appears to have anticipated the international investors reality check on those future expectations with the result of a large increase in the cost of external financing. Today the rebalancing of the current account through an increase in national savings and an improvement in competitiveness must be at the top of the Portuguese authorities “to do” list as the cost of a pull out from international investors is of the order of 10% of GDP. The external rebalancing is difficult as the degrees of freedom of the Portuguese authorities are limited in number: they have no autonomous monetary policy, no currency to devaluate, and little discretion in fiscal policy as deficit limits and debt targets are set by the Stability Growth Pact and the postcrisis consensus on medium-term fiscal consolidation. One possibility that remains is to change the fiscal policy mix for a given budget deficit. The purpose of this paper is to explore the effects of a “fiscal devaluation”1 obtained through a tax swap between employers’ social security contributions and taxes on consumption2. The paper begins by illustrating Portugal’s current account evolution during the euro period. The second section section lays out a model to offer a qualitative assessment of the dynamic outcomes of the the tax swap. I show that the suggested tax swap can in theory achieve the desired outcomes in terms of competitiveness and consumption if complemented with moderation (stickiness) in wages. I also study the effects of a temporary version of the tax swap and show that it achieves a sharper improvement in the current account that accelerate the rebalancing. The third section moves to the empirical analysis and estimates the likely effects of the tax swap for the Portuguese economy. The fourth section concludes.

Equity in the fiscal benefits associated with private health expenditures in Portugal: 2000 - 2010

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Opening Pousada da Serra da Estrela in Covilhã: A two-way impact analysis - interacting with private agents

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Draft for a Mental Health strategy Lebanon

RESUMO: O Líbano é um pequeno país na costa leste do Mar Mediterrâneo, com uma população de aproximadamente 4.350.000 pessoas, incluindo 1,5 milhões de refugiados, 400 mil dos quais são palestinos atendidos pela UNRWA (Agência das Nações Unidas de Socorro aos Refugiados da Palestina) (UNHCR, 2013; OMS, 2010a). Desde 2012, um excedente de 1.000.000 refugiados sírios cruzaram a fronteira com o Líbano, representando um aumento populacional de aproximadamente 25%. Além disso, entre 1975 e 1990, a violenta guerra civil pela qual o Líbano passou, destruiu grande parte da infra-estrutura do país, incluindo os serviços de saúde. O sector da saúde, mais especificamente os serviços de saúde mental, é majoritariamente privado. Serviços especializados em Saúde Mental estão disponíveis em três hospitais psiquiátricos privados, e em 4 unidades psiquiátricas de hospitais gerais, que estão localizados centralmente em torno da capital, Beirute. O Líbano é um dos dois únicos países da região que não tem uma Política de Saúde Mental e um dos seis países que não têm uma Legislação em Saúde Mental. Nos últimos anos, a Saúde Mental está sendo colocada no topo da agenda nacional, apesar das contínuas questões políticas e de segurança. Baseando-se nas informações acima, um projecto de estratégia em Saúde Mental, conduzido pelo Ministério da Saúde e apoiado pela OMS, foi escrito para servir como um guia para trabalhar em diferentes aspectos relacionados tanto em saúde mental quanto em organização dos serviços, revisão de legislação, financiamento e proteção dos direitos humanos básicos dos usuários do serviço. Esta tese descreve o processo pelo qual o projecto de estratégia nacional de Saúde Mental foi desenvolvido, seus principais componentes, os próximos passos a serem tomados para a sua implementação, os desafios e as oportunidades para implementá-lo e propõe alguns passos iniciais a serem tomados em primeiro lugar.----------ABSTRACT: Lebanon is a small country on the eastern shore of the Mediterranean Sea with a population of approximately 4,350,000 including 1,500,000 refugees, 400,000 of whom are Palestinians served by UNRWA (the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees) (UNHCR, 2013; WHO, 2010a). Since 2012 an excess of 1,000,000 Syrian refugees have crossed the border into Lebanon accounting for approximately 25% increase in the population. In addition, from 1975 to 1990 Lebanon underwent a violent civil war that had also destroyed much of the country infrastructure including health services. The health sector, more so the mental health services, is mostly private. Specialized Mental Health services are available at three private mental hospitals, and 4 psychiatric units within general hospitals, which are located centrally around the capital, Beirut. Lebanon is one of only two countries of the region that does not have a Mental Health policy and one out of the six countries that does not have a Mental Health legislation. In recent years, Mental Health is getting placed higher on the national agenda despite the ever continuing political and security issues. Based on the above, A Mental Health strategy draft, lead by the Ministry of Health and supported by WHO, was written to serve as a guide to work on different aspects related to Mental Health from service organization, to the revision of legislation, financing and the protection of the basic human rights of service users. This thesis describes the process through which the national Mental Health draft strategy was developed, its main components, the next steps to be taken for its implementation, the challenges and the opportunities to implementing it and proposes a few initial steps to be taken first.

A private library in the Mateus Palace (Vila Real). The D. Luís António de Sousa Botelho Mourão (1722-1798) Books Collection

Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia no âmbito de Bolsa de Doutoramento (SFRH/BD/86280/2012)

Satisfação profissional dos médicos dentistas na utilização do cheque-dentista : um estudo exploratório no concelho de Lisboa

RESUMO - A satisfação profissional é um fenómeno amplamente estudado e esse interesse decorre da influência que a mesma pode exercer sobre o trabalhador, afetando a sua saúde, atitudes, comportamento profissional e social, com repercussões tanto para a sua vida privada como para as organizações. Considerando a tendência mundial de se aproximarem os perfis da profissão para um perfil único e de que a investigação sobre a satisfação profissional dos médicos dentistas em vários países estar presentemente a ser divulgada, seria importante avaliar a situação em Portugal para fins comparativos. O presente estudo teve como objetivo investigar o grau de satisfação profissional dos médicos dentistas na utilização do cheque-dentista no concelho de Lisboa, procurando estabelecer relações entre as diferentes dimensões da satisfação profissional e variáveis socioprofissionais. Um questionário de autopreenchimento foi enviado por e-mail para as clínicas onde os médicos dentistas trabalham, num total de 99 obtendo-se uma taxa de resposta de 24,2%. Verificou-se que em relação à satisfação profissional em geral nas várias dimensões questionadas, é a relação profissional/paciente que os médicos dentistas consideram como mais importante logo seguida da realização pessoal e profissional. Como menos importante os médicos dentistas referiram o status/prestígio e a segurança profissional. Já no campo da satisfação profissional no âmbito do cheque-dentista concluiu-se que mais próximo do grau de satisfeito se encontra a relação estabelecida com o paciente assim como a relação de trabalho com a equipa. No grau de satisfação mais baixo, de total insatisfação encontra-se o número de tratamentos que são permitidos efetuar em cada cheque-dentista e um último lugar encontrase o valor remuneratório do cheque-dentista. Comparando a satisfação profissional com o cheque-dentista entre géneros, verificou-se que apenas na dimensão do valor remuneratório do cheque-dentista existem diferenças estatisticamente significativas (p=0,026), sendo que o género feminino demonstra maior satisfação que o género masculino. O número de participantes não foi suficiente para que se possa generalizar os resultados para a população. É necessária a realização de mais estudos neste âmbito com um maior número de profissionais de forma a que os resultados sejam estatisticamente significativos.

Maritime Security in the Gulf of Guinea: Issues and Solutions for the 21st Century

A producer of 5.4 M bbl/d, totalling almost half of the consumption of the entire European Union, the Gulf of Guinea is a fundamental lifeline and maritime link between Europe, the Americas and Africa. Geographically positioned as a staging post for transit originating in Latin America and coupled with its relatively porous borders, the region is also the perfect stepping stone for contraband heading to European shores. While blessed with an enviable wealth of marine and mineral resources, the region is also plagued by an ever-increasing spectre of maritime piracy; accounting for around 30% of incidents in African waters from 2003 to 2011. It is for these reasons that this research centres around the issues of maritime security in the Gulf of Guinea, with a particular focus on the first two decades of the 21st century. This research looks to examine the overall picture of the present state of play in the area, before going on to provide an analysis of potential regional developments in maritime security. This research begins with the analysis of concepts/phenomena that have played a notable role in the shaping of the field of maritime security, namely Globalisation and security issues in the post-Cold War era. The ensuing chapter then focuses in on the Gulf of Guinea and the issues dominating the field of maritime security in the region. The penultimate chapter presents a SWOT analysis, undertaken as part of this research with the aim of correlating opinions from a variety of sectors/professions regarding maritime security in the Gulf of Guinea. The final chapter builds upon the results obtained from the abovementioned SWOT analysis, presenting a series of potential proposals/strategies that can contribute to the field of maritime security in the region over the coming years. This research draws to a close with the presentation of conclusions taken from this particular investigation, as well as a final overview of the earlier presented proposals applicable to the field of maritime security during the second decade of the 21st century.

Determinants of social security pensions expenditure in Portugal

In most European countries Social Security (SS) systems are characterized as Pay-asyou- go systems. Their sustainability is being challenged with demographic changes, namely population ageing. Portugal’s population is ageing rapidly being one of the countries where this problem is more critical. With the growing debate on this topic several public choice models have been developed so as to explain SS size. In this work project there is an attempt to understand whether these models contribute to better explain Social security expenditure with pensions (SSEP) and to establish the need of finding ways to reduce present commitment with pension expenditure in Portugal.

Optimal choice between even- and uneven-aged forestry: the case of non-industrial private forest owners

An infinite-horizon discrete time model with multiple size-class structures using a transition matrix is built to assess optimal harvesting schedules in the context of Non-Industrial Private Forest (NIPF) owners. Three model specifications accounting for forest income, financial return on an asset and amenity valuations are considered. Numerical simulations suggest uneven-aged forest management where a rational forest owner adapts her or his forest policy by influencing the regeneration of trees or adjusting consumption dynamics depending on subjective time preference and market return rate dynamics on the financial asset. Moreover she or he does not value significantly non-market benefits captured by amenity valuations relatively to forest income.

Shiva's dance: Crisis, local institutions and private firms

The uneven spatial distribution of start-ups and their respective survival may reflect comparative advantages resulting from the local institutional background. For the first time, we explore this idea using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) to assess the relative efficiency of Portuguese municipalities in this specific context. We depart from the related literature where expenditure is perceived as a desirable input by choosing a measure of fiscal responsibility and infrastructural variables in the first stage. Comparing results for 2006 and 2010, we find that mean performance decreased substantially 1) with the effects of the Global Financial Crisis, 2) as municipal population increases and 3) as financial independence decreases. A second stage is then performed employing a double-bootstrap procedure to evaluate how the regional context outside the control of local authorities (e.g. demographic characteristics and political preferences) impacts on efficiency.

COMTEMP: Financing expansion through private equity?

COMTEMP – Companhia de Temperos, Lda. is a Portuguese company that produces vinegars (e.g. CRISTAL vinegars), sauces and condiments. This case study aims to analyze its attractiveness to receive a venture capital investment. The main covered topics are arranged into the following sections: foundation, company, industry, competition, industrial kitchen opportunity, financial strategy and decision.

“Private label products: A category analysis”

The presented dissertation was developed within a partnership between Nova School of Business and Economics and the Portuguese retailer Sonae MC. The main objective of the study was to develop an analysis for the confectionary category to identify potential development opportunities for new Private Label products. In order to do so, the starting point was to understand how the confectionery market was behaving, followed by and understanding of Continente’s performance in that market. Aiming to point out development opportunities, the analysis was split between the subcategories – Chocolate, Chewing Gums and Sweets. The Subcategory performance was assessed in terms of sales, number of SKU’s, Private Label weight and it market position in terms of share. For the potential development opportunities a comparison between the top selling Branded Product and the competitors’ position was developed, in order to establish a reasonable size and retail price for such products. Key Word: Private Label, Branded Products, Continente, Sonae MC, Retail, SKU’s, Sales, Price, Market Share,