Economic analysis in health care regulation : three essays

ABSTRACT - It is the purpose of the present thesis to emphasize, through a series of examples, the need and value of appropriate pre-analysis of the impact of health care regulation. Specifically, the thesis presents three papers on the theme of regulation in different aspects of health care provision and financing. The first two consist of economic analyses of the impact of health care regulation and the third comprises the creation of an instrument for supporting economic analysis of health care regulation, namely in the field of evaluation of health care programs. The first paper develops a model of health plan competition and pricing in order to understand the dynamics of health plan entry and exit in the presence of switching costs and alternative health premium payment systems. We build an explicit model of death spirals, in which profitmaximizing competing health plans find it optimal to adopt a pattern of increasing relative prices culminating in health plan exit. We find the steady-state numerical solution for the price sequence and the plan’s optimal length of life through simulation and do some comparative statics. This allows us to show that using risk adjusted premiums and imposing price floors are effective at reducing death spirals and switching costs, while having employees pay a fixed share of the premium enhances death spirals and increases switching costs. Price regulation of pharmaceuticals is one of the cost control measures adopted by the Portuguese government, as in many European countries. When such regulation decreases the products’ real price over time, it may create an incentive for product turnover. Using panel data for the period of 1997 through 2003 on drug packages sold in Portuguese pharmacies, the second paper addresses the question of whether price control policies create an incentive for product withdrawal. Our work builds the product survival literature by accounting for unobservable product characteristics and heterogeneity among consumers when constructing quality, price control and competition indexes. These indexes are then used as covariates in a Cox proportional hazard model. We find that, indeed, price control measures increase the probability of exit, and that such effect is not verified in OTC market where no such price regulation measures exist. We also find quality to have a significant positive impact on product survival. In the third paper, we develop a microsimulation discrete events model (MSDEM) for costeffectiveness analysis of Human Immunodeficiency Virus treatment, simulating individual paths from antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation to death. Four driving forces determine the course of events: CD4+ cell count, viral load resistance and adherence. A novel feature of the model with respect to the previous MSDEMs is that distributions of time to event depend on individuals’ characteristics and past history. Time to event was modeled using parametric survival analysis. Events modeled include: viral suppression, regimen switch due virological failure, regimen switch due to other reasons, resistance development, hospitalization, AIDS events, and death. Disease progression is structured according to therapy lines and the model is parameterized with cohort Portuguese observational data. An application of the model is presented comparing the cost-effectiveness ART initiation with two nucleoside analogue reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTI) plus one non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor(NNRTI) to two NRTI plus boosted protease inhibitor (PI/r) in HIV- 1 infected individuals. We find 2NRTI+NNRTI to be a dominant strategy. Results predicted by the model reproduce those of the data used for parameterization and are in line with those published in the literature.

Testing for volatility persistence change: The effect of the credit crisis on the Portuguese banks

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

A cross-cultural study on the effect of decimal separator on price perception

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Effect of surfactant on PDLC films with and without permanent memory effect

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Química e Bioquímica

A simulation model for lean, agile, resilient and green supply chain management: practices and interoperability assessment

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia e Gestão Industrial

Nevirapine in an animal model of pre-diabetes: study of drug pharmacokinetic and its effects on fasting glycemia and insulin resistance

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Biotecnologia

Absorption in human capital and r&d effects in an endogenous growth model

Until now, in models of endogenous growth with physical capital, human capital and R&D such as in Arnold [Journal of Macroeconomics 20 (1998)] and followers, steady-state growth is independent of innovation activities. We introduce absorption in human capital accumulation and describe the steady-state and transition of the model. We show that this new feature provides an effect of R&D in growth, consumption and welfare. We compare the quantitative effects of R&D productivity with the quantitative effects of Human Capital productivity in wealth and welfare.

The strength of the waterbed effect depends on tariff type

We show that the waterbed effect, i.e. the pass-through of a change in one price of a firm to its other prices, is much stronger if the latter include subscription rather than only usage fees. In particular, in mobile network competition with a fixed number of customers, the waterbed effect is full under two-part tariffs, while it is only partial under linear tariffs.

Analysis of the interaction of polycyclic aromatic compounds in a model organism: integration of genotoxic and histopathological effects

Due to their toxicity, especially their carcinogenic potential, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) became priority pollutants in biomonitoring programmes and environmental policy, such as the European Water Framework Directive. The model substances tested in this study, namely benzo[b]fluoranthene (B[b]F), considered potentially carcinogenic to humans and an effector carcinogenic PAH to wildlife, and phenanthrene (Phe), deemed a non-carcinogenic PAH, are common PAHs in coastal waters, owning distinct properties reflected in different, albeit overlapping, mechanisms of toxicity. Still, as for similar PAHs, their interaction effects remain largely unknown. In order to study the genotoxic effects of caused by the interaction of carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic PAHs, and their relation to histopathological alterations, juvenile sea basses, Dicentrarchus labrax, a highly ecologically- and economically-relevant marine fish, were injected with different doses (5 and 10 μg.g-1 fish ww) of the two PAHs, isolated or in mixture, and incubated for 48 h. Individuals injected with B[b]F and the PAH mixture exhibited higher clastogenic/aneugenic effects and DNA strand breakage in blood cells, determined through the erythrocytic nuclear abnormalities (ENA) and Comet assays, respectively. Also, hepatic histopathological alterations were found in all animals, especially those injected with B[b]F and the PAH mixture, relating especially to inflammation. Still, Phe also exhibited genotoxic effects in sea bass, especially in higher doses, revealing a very significant acute effect that was accordant with the Microtox test performed undergone in parallel. Overall, sea bass was sensitive to B[b]F (a higher molecular weight PAH), likely due to efficient bioactivation of the pollutant (yielding genotoxic metabolites and reactive oxygen species), when compared to Phe, the latter revealing a more significant acute effect. The results indicate no significant additive effect between the substances, under the current experimental conditions. The present study highlights the importance of understanding PAH interactions in aquatic organisms, since they are usually present in the aquatic environment in complex mixtures.

The effect of key process operational conditions on enhanced biological phosphorus removal from wastewater

Enhanced biological phosphorus removal (EBPR) is the most economic and sustainable option used in wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) for phosphorus removal. In this process it is important to control the competition between polyphosphate accumulating organisms (PAOs) and glycogen accumulating organisms (GAOs), since EBPR deterioration or failure can be related with the proliferation of GAOs over PAOs. This thesis is focused on the effect of operational conditions (volatile fatty acid (VFA) composition, dissolved oxygen (DO) concentration and organic carbon loading) on PAO and GAO metabolism. The knowledge about the effect of these operational conditions on EBPR metabolism is very important, since they represent key factors that impact WWTPs performance and sustainability. Substrate competition between the anaerobic uptake of acetate and propionate (the main VFAs present in WWTPs) was shown in this work to be a relevant factor affecting PAO metabolism, and a metabolic model was developed that successfully describes this effect. Interestingly, the aerobic metabolism of PAOs was not affected by different VFA compositions, since the aerobic kinetic parameters for phosphorus uptake, polyhydroxyalkanoates (PHAs) degradation and glycogen production were relatively independent of acetate or propionate concentration. This is very relevant for WWTPs, since it will simplify the calibration procedure for metabolic models, facilitating their use for full-scale systems. The DO concentration and aerobic hydraulic retention time (HRT) affected the PAO-GAO competition, where low DO levels or lower aerobic HRT was more favourable for PAOs than GAOs. Indeed, the oxygen affinity coefficient was significantly higher for GAOs than PAOs, showing that PAOs were far superior at scavenging for the often limited oxygen levels in WWTPs. The operation of WWTPs with low aeration is of high importance for full-scale systems, since it decreases the energetic costs and can potentially improve WWTP sustainability. Extended periods of low organic carbon load, which are the most common conditions that exist in full-scale WWTPs, also had an impact on PAO and GAO activity. GAOs exhibited a substantially higher biomass decay rate as compared to PAOs under these conditions, which revealed a higher survival capacity for PAOs, representing an advantage for PAOs in EBPR processes. This superior survival capacity of PAOs under conditions more closely resembling a full-scale environment was linked with their ability to maintain a residual level of PHA reserves for longer than GAOs, providing them with an effective energy source for aerobic maintenance processes. Overall, this work shows that each of these key operational conditions play an important role in the PAO-GAO competition and should be considered in WWTP models in order to improve EBPR processes.

The effect of ownership concentration on management behavior in Belgian banks: A case study

Double Degree. A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Master’s Degree in Finance from NOVA – School of Business and Economics and a Masters Degree in Management from Louvain School of Management

Search-for-yield in Portuguese fixed-income mutual funds and monetary policy

This paper studies the effects of monetary policy on mutual fund risk taking using a sample of Portuguese fixed-income mutual funds in the 2000-2012 period. Firstly I estimate time-varying measures of risk exposure (betas) for the individual funds, for the benchmark portfolio, as well as for a representative equally-weighted portfolio, through 24-month rolling regressions of a two-factor model with two systematic risk factors: interest rate risk (TERM) and default risk (DEF). Next, in the second phase, using the estimated betas, I try to understand what portion of the risk exposure is in excess of the benchmark (active risk) and how it relates to monetary policy proxies (one-month rate, Taylor residual, real rate and first principal component of a cross-section of government yields and rates). Using this methodology, I provide empirical evidence that Portuguese fixed-income mutual funds respond to accommodative monetary policy by significantly increasing exposure, in excess of their benchmarks, to default risk rate and slightly to interest risk rate as well. I also find that the increase in funds’ risk exposure to gain a boost in return (search-for-yield) is more pronounced following the 2007-2009 global financial crisis, indicating that the current historic low interest rates may incentivize excessive risk taking. My results suggest that monetary policy affects the risk appetite of non-bank financial intermediaries.

Evaluation of antihypertensive drugs in patients with obstructive sleep apnea and in rats submitted to chronic intermittent hypoxia

RESUMO: A hipertensão arterial (HA) é uma patologia altamente prevalente, embora claramente subdiagnosticada, em doentes com síndrome de apneia obstrutiva do sono (SAOS). Estas duas patologias apresentam uma estreita relação e a monitorização ambulatória da pressão arterial (MAPA), por um período de 24 horas, parece ser o método mais preciso para o diagnóstico de hipertensão em doentes com SAOS. No entanto, esta ferramenta de diagnóstico para além de ser dispendiosa e envolver um número acrescido de meios técnicos e humanos, é mais morosa e, por conseguinte, não é utilizada por rotina no contexto do diagnóstico da SAOS. Por outro lado, apesar da aplicação de pressão positiva contínua nas vias aéreas (CPAP – Continous Positive Airway Pressure) ser considerada a terapêutica de eleição para os doentes com SAOS, o seu efeito no abaixamento da pressão arterial (PA) parece ser modesto, exigindo, por conseguinte, a implementação concomitante de terapêutica anti-hipertensora. Acontece que são escassos os dados relativos aos regimes de fármacos anti-hipertensores utilizados em doentes com SAOS e, acresce ainda que, as guidelines terapêuticas para o tratamento farmacológico da HA, neste grupo particular de doentes, permanecem, até ao momento, inexistentes. A utilização de modelos animais de hipóxia crónica intermitente (CIH), que mimetizam a HA observada em doentes com SAOS, revela-se extremamente importante, uma vez que se torna imperativo identificar fármacos que promovam um controle adequado da PA neste grupo de doentes. No entanto, estudos concebidos com o intuito de investigar o efeito anti-hipertensor dos fármacos neste modelo animal revelam-se insuficientes e, por outro lado, os escassos estudos que testaram fármacos anti-hipertensores neste modelo não foram desenhados para responder a questões de natureza farmacológica. Acresce ainda que se torna imprescindível garantir a escolha de um método para administração destes fármacos que seja não invasivo e que minimize o stress do animal. Embora a gavagem seja uma técnica indiscutivelmente eficaz e amplamente utilizada para a administração diária de fármacos a animais de laboratório, ela compreende uma sequência de procedimentos geradores de stress para os animais e, que podem por conseguinte, constituir um viés na interpretação dos resultados obtidos. O objectivo global da presente investigação translacional foi contribuir para a identificação de fármacos anti-hipertensores mais efectivos para o tratamento da HT nos indivíduos com SAOS e investigar mecanismos subjacentes aos efeitos sistémicos associadas à SAOS bem como a sua modulação por fármacos anti-hipertensores. Os objectivos específicos foram: em primeiro lugar,encontrar novos critérios, baseados nas medidas antropométricas, que permitam a identificação de doentes com suspeita de SAOS, que erroneamente se auto-classifiquem como nãohipertensos, e desta forma promover um uso mais criterioso do MAPA; em segundo lugar, investigar a existência de uma hipotética associação entre os esquemas de fármacos antihipertensores e o controle da PA (antes e após a adaptação de CPAP) em doentes com SAOS em terceiro lugar, avaliar a eficácia do carvedilol (CVD), um fármaco bloqueador β-adrenérgico não selectivo com actividade antagonista α1 intrínseca e propriedades anti-oxidantes num modelo animal de hipertensão induzida pela CIH; em quarto lugar, explorar os efeitos da CIH sobre o perfil farmacocinético do CVD; e, em quinto lugar, investigar um método alternativo à gavagem para a administração crónica de fármacos anti-hipertensores a animais de laboratório. Com este intuito, na primeira fase deste projecto, fizemos uso de uma amostra com um número apreciável de doentes com SAOS (n=369), que acorreram, pela primeira vez, à consulta de Patologia do Sono do CHLN e que foram submetidos a um estudo polissonográfico do sono, à MAPA e que preencheram um questionário que contemplava a obtenção de informação relativa ao perfil da medicação anti-hipertensora em curso. Numa segunda fase, utilizámos um modelo experimental de HT no rato induzida por um paradigma de CIH. Do nosso trabalho resultaram os seguintes resultados principais: em primeiro lugar, o índice de massa corporal (IMC) e o perímetro do pescoço (PP) foram identificados como preditores independentes de “auto-classificação errónea” da HA em doentes com suspeita de SAOS; em segundo lugar, não encontramos qualquer associação com significado estatístico entre os vários esquemas de fármacos anti-hipertensores bem como o número de fármacos incluídos nesse esquemas, e o controle da PA (antes e depois da adaptação do CPAP); em terceiro lugar, apesar das doses de 10, 30 e 50 mg/kg de carvedilol terem promovido uma redução significativa da frequência cardíaca, não foi observado qualquer decréscimo na PA no nosso modelo animal; em quarto lugar, as razões S/(R+S) dos enantiómeros do CVD nos animais expostos à CIH e a condições de normóxia revelaram-se diferentes; e, em quinto lugar, a administração oral voluntária mostrou ser um método eficaz para a administração diária controlada de fármacos anti-hipertensores e que é independente da manipulação e contenção do animal. Em conclusão, os resultados obtidos através do estudo clínico revelaram que o controle da PA, antes e após a adaptação do CPAP, em doentes com SAOS é independente, quer do esquema de fármacos anti-hipertensores, quer do número de fármacos incluídos num determinado esquema. Os nossos resultados salientam ainda a falta de validade da chamada self-reported hypertension e sugerem que em todos os doentes com suspeita de SAOS, com HA não diagnosticada e com um IMC e um PP acima de 27 kg/m2 e 39 cm, respectivamente, a confirmação do diagnóstico de HA deverá ser realizada através da MAPA, ao invés de outros métodos que com maior frequência são utilizados com este propósito. Os resultados obtidos no modelo animal de HA induzida pela CIH sugerem que o bloqueio do sistema nervoso simpático, juntamente com os supostos efeitos pleiotrópicos do CVD, não parece ser a estratégia mais adequada para reverter este tipo particular de hipertensão e indicam que as alterações farmacocinéticas induzidas pela CIH no ratio S/(R+S) não justificam a falta de eficácia anti-hipertensora do CVD observada neste modelo animal. Por último, os resultados do presente trabalho suportam ainda a viabilidade da utilização da administração oral voluntária, em alternativa à gavagem, para a administração crónica de uma dose fixa de fármacos anti-hipertensores.---------------------------- ABSTRACT: Hypertension (HT) is a highly prevalent condition, although under diagnosed, in patients with obstructive sleep apnea (OSA). These conditions are closely related and 24-hour ambulatory blood pressure monitoring (ABPM) seems to be the most accurate measurement for diagnosing hypertension in OSA. However, this diagnostic tool is expensive and time-consuming and, therefore, not routinely used. On the other hand, although continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) is considered the gold standard treatment for symptomatic OSA, its lowering effect on blood pressure (BP) seems to be modest and, therefore, concomitant antihypertensive therapy is still required. Data on antihypertensive drug regimens in patients with OSA are scarce and specific therapeutic guidelines for the pharmacological treatment of hypertension in these patients remain absent. The use of animal models of CIH, which mimic the HT observed in patients with OSA, is extremely important since it is imperative to identify preferred compounds for an adequate BP control in this group of patients. However, studies aimed at investigating the antihypertensive effect of antihypertensive drugs in this animal model are insufficient, and most reports on CIH animal models in which drugs have been tested were not designed to respond to pharmacological issues. Moreover, when testing antihypertensive drugs (AHDs) it becomes crucial to ensure the selection of a non-invasive and stress-free method for drug delivery. Although gavage is effective and a widely performed technique for daily dosing in laboratory rodents, it comprises a sequence of potentially stressful procedures for laboratory animals that may constitute bias for the experimental results. The overall goal of the present translational research was to contribute to identify more effective AHDs for the treatment of hypertension in patients with OSA and investigate underlying mechanisms of systemic effects associated with OSA, as well as its modulation by AHDs. The specific aims were: first, to find new predictors based on anthropometric measures to identify patients that misclassify themselves as non-hypertensive, and thereby promote the selective use of ABPM; second, to investigate a hypothetical association between ongoing antihypertensive regimens and BP control rates in patients with OSA, before and after CPAP adaptation; third, to determine, in a rat model of CIH-induced hypertension, the efficacy of carvedilol (CVD), a nonselective beta-blocker with intrinsic anti-α1-adrenergic activity and antioxidant properties; fourth, to explore the effects of CIH on the pharmacokinetics profile of CVD and fifth, to investigate an alternative method to gavage, for chronic administration of AHDs to laboratory rats. For that, in the first phase of this project, we used a sizeable sample of patients with OSA (n=369), that attended a first visit at Centro Hospitalar Lisboa Norte, EPE Sleep Unit, and underwent overnight polysomnography, 24-h ABPM and filled a questionnaire that included ongoing antihypertensive medication profile registration. In the second phase, a rat experimental model of HT induced by a paradigm of CIH that simulates OSA was used. The main findings of this work were: first, body mass index (BMI) and neck circumference (NC) were identified as independent predictors of hypertension misclassification in patients suspected of OSA; second, in patients with OSA, BP control is independent of both the antihypertensive regimen and the number of antihypertensive drugs, either before or after CPAP adaptation; third, although the doses of 10, 30 and 50 mg/Kg of CVD promoted a significant reduction in heart rate, no decrease in mean arterial pressure was observed; fourth, the S/(R+S) ratios of CVD enantiomers, between rats exposed to CIH and normoxic conditions, were different and fifth, voluntary ingestion proved to be an effective method for a controlled daily dose administration, with a define timetable, that is independent of handling and restraint procedures. In conclusion, the clinical study showed that BP control in OSA patients is independent of both the antihypertensive regimen and the number of antihypertensive drugs. Additionally, our results highlight the lack of validity of self-reported hypertension and suggest that all patients suspected of OSA with undiagnosed hypertension and with a BMI and NC above 27 Kg/m2 and 39 cm should be screened for hypertension, through ABPM. The results attained in the rat model of HT related to CIH suggest that the blockade of the sympathetic nervous system together with the putative pleiotropic effects of carvedilol is not able to revert hypertension induced by CIH and point out that the pharmacokinetic changes induced by CIH on S/(R+S) ratio are not apparently responsible for the lack of efficacy of carvedilol in reversing this particular type of hypertension. Finally, the results here presented support the use of voluntary oral administration as a viable alternative to gavage for chronic administration of a fixed dose of AHDs.

Proteomic analysis of a neurodegeneration cell model, treated with plant extracts with potential neuroprotective activity

Nowadays, a significant increase in chronic diseases is observed. Epidemiological studies showed a consistent relationship between the consumption of fruits and vegetables and a reduced risk of certain chronic diseases, namely neurodegenerative disorders. One factor common to these diseases is oxidative stress, which is highly related with proteins, lipids, carbohydrates and nucleic acids damage, leading to cellular dysfunction. Polyphenols, highly abundant in berries and associated products, were described as having antioxidant properties, with beneficial effect in these pathologies. The aims of this study were to evaluate by proteomic analyses the effect of oxidative insult in a neuroblastoma cell line (SK-N-MC) and understand the mechanisms involved in the neuroprotective effects of digested extracts from commercial and wild blackberry (R. vagabundus Samp.). The analysis of the total proteome by two-dimensional electrophoresis revealed that oxidative stress in SK-N-MC cells resulted in altered expression of 12 protein spots from a total of 318. Regarding some redox proteomics alterations, particularly proteins carbonylation and glutathionylation, protein carbonyl alterations during stress suggest that cells produce an early and late response; on the other hand, no glutathionylated polypeptides were detected. Relatively to the incubation of SK-N-MC cells with digested berry extracts, commercial blackberry promotes more changes in protein pattern of these cells than R. vagabundus. From 9 statistically different protein spots of cells incubated with commercial blackberry, only β-tubulin and GRP 78 were until now identified by mass spectrometry. Further studies involving the selection of sub proteomes will be necessary to have a better understanding of the mechanisms underlying the neuroprotective effects of berries.

The thermal effects on the methanol-to-olefins reaction: A modelling and experimental approach

With the projection of an increasing world population, hand-in-hand with a journey towards a bigger number of developed countries, further demand on basic chemical building blocks, as ethylene and propylene, has to be properly addressed in the next decades. The methanol-to-olefins (MTO) is an interesting reaction to produce those alkenes using coal, gas or alternative sources, like biomass, through syngas as a source for the production of methanol. This technology has been widely applied since 1985 and most of the processes are making use of zeolites as catalysts, particularly ZSM-5. Although its selectivity is not especially biased over light olefins, it resists to a quick deactivation by coke deposition, making it quite attractive when it comes to industrial environments; nevertheless, this is a highly exothermic reaction, which is hard to control and to anticipate problems, such as temperature runaways or hot-spots, inside the catalytic bed. The main focus of this project is to study those temperature effects, by addressing both experimental, where the catalytic performance and the temperature profiles are studied, and modelling fronts, which consists in a five step strategy to predict the weight fractions and activity. The mind-set of catalytic testing is present in all the developed assays. It was verified that the selectivity towards light olefins increases with temperature, although this also leads to a much faster catalyst deactivation. To oppose this effect, experiments were carried using a diluted bed, having been able to increase the catalyst lifetime between 32% and 47%. Additionally, experiments with three thermocouples placed inside the catalytic bed were performed, analysing the deactivation wave and the peaks of temperature throughout the bed. Regeneration was done between consecutive runs and it was concluded that this action can be a powerful means to increase the catalyst lifetime, maintaining a constant selectivity towards light olefins, by losing acid strength in a steam stabilised zeolitic structure. On the other hand, developments on the other approach lead to the construction of a raw basic model, able to predict weight fractions, that should be tuned to be a tool for deactivation and temperature profiles prediction.