Predictability of stock market returns: Evidence from Eurozone's banking sectors

This paper analyzes the in-, and out-of sample, predictability of the stock market returns from Eurozone’s banking sectors, arising from bank-specific ratios and macroeconomic variables, using panel estimation techniques. In order to do that, I set an unbalanced panel of 116 banks returns, from April, 1991, to March, 2013, to constitute equal-weighted country-sorted portfolios representative of the Austrian, Belgian, Finish, French, German, Greek, Irish, Italian, Portuguese and Spanish banking sectors. I find that both earnings per share (EPS) and the ratio of total loans to total assets have in-sample predictive power over the portfolios’ monthly returns whereas, regarding the cross-section of annual returns, only EPS retain significant explanatory power. Nevertheless, the sign associated with the impact of EPS is contrarian to the results of past literature. When looking at inter-yearly horizon returns, I document in-sample predictive power arising from the ratios of provisions to net interest income, and non-interest income to net income. Regarding the out-of-sample performance of the proposed models, I find that these would only beat the portfolios’ historical mean on the month following the disclosure of year-end financial statements. Still, the evidence found is not statistically significant. Finally, in a last attempt to find significant evidence of predictability of monthly and annual returns, I use Fama and French 3-Factor and Carhart models to describe the cross-section of returns. Although in-sample the factors can significantly track Eurozone’s banking sectors’ stock market returns, they do not beat the portfolios’ historical mean when forecasting returns.

The impact of the Board of Director's composition on companies performance

The impact of the Board of Directors’ composition on companies’ performance This paper studies the impact that the board of directors’ composition has on companies’ performance in the Italian market. The research has been carried out by using a sample of 10 Italian companies, across different market sectors, over a period of 10 years (2005-2014). The characteristics of the BoD taken into consideration are the following: board size, board diversity (% of female directors), board independence and CEO duality. Results from the sample data collected concluded that these factors have a statistically significant impact on the performance of the companies that have been analysed.

Surrogacy in Portugal

Surrogacy is the arrangement made by at least three people, in order for a surrogate or gestational mother to carry a pregnancy for the two intended parents, with the objective of the former party relinquishing all rights to the child, once the child is born. As it has only been in recent years that that same reproductive method has begun to be commonly accepted due to certain modern scientific developments that thus diminished ethical and moral negative stances, there is still an unsettling legal void (both at a national and international level) in regards to such subsidiary form of reproduction. As such, some countries have not only left their citizens with no choice but to travel abroad in order to enter a surrogacy arrangement (leading to private international law issues on establishing parenthood and nationality of the born child) or to resort to surrogacy within black market conditions. Unfortunately, one of those countries is Portugal as it has been considered, both by its political parties and experts in the area, and by its citizens as not dealing adequately with such theme and thus being poorly equipped to deal with surrogacy, at both a legal and social level. The present paper attempts to analyse Portugal’s current legal perspective by looking at the present efforts being made to contradict the current situation, and thus outline altruistic gestational surrogacy’s tangible future within such nation. In order to also become aware of possible improvements specifically regarding to the full protection of human rights and human dignity as a whole, the United Kingdom’s legal standpoint in relation to surrogacy was also studied. Via direct comparison of both social and legal perspectives, a new approach to altruistic surrogacy is thus proposed with view to suggest a harmonious solution for countries that have at least recognized that the present issue deserves to be duly noticed and that altruistic gestational surrogacy may exist in order to grant protection of human dignity and not to place it in check.