25 resultados para Bayesian Population Modelling


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Dissertação para a obtenção de grau de doutor em Bioquímica pelo Instituto de Tecnologia Química e Biológica da Universidade Nova de Lisboa

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A thesis submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Sanitary Engineering in the Faculty of Sciences and Technology of the New University of Lisbon

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Dissertação apresentada na Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Civil Perfil de Estruturas e Geotecnia

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RESUMO:Staphylococcus aureus é um dos principais agentes patogénicos humanos, sendo frequentemente associado a infecções nosocomiais e infecções na comunidade. A prevalência de S. aureus resistentes à meticilina (MRSA) em hospitais portugueses é uma das mais elevadas da Europa e tem sido caracterizada extensivamente; contrariamente, a prevalência e epidemiologia de MRSA na comunidade em Portugal não tem sido devidamente seguida. Com o objectivo de compreender as causas possíveis do aumento na frequência de MRSA num dos maiores hospitais centrais portugueses (HSM) ao longo de 17 anos, isolados de MRSA recolhidos em 1993 (n=54) e 2010 (n=180) de pus, sangue e urina foram analisados por PFGE, MLST, tipagem do spa e tipagem de SCCmec. Os resultados mostraram que ocorreu uma mudança global nos tipos clonais predominantes, onde o clone ST22-IVh substituiu os clones, ST239-IIIvar e ST247-I, representando mais de 70% da população actual. Além disso, entre 1993 e 2010 verificou-se um aumento na diversidade genética dos tipos clonais de MRSA. Para determinar a frequência e a natureza clonal de MRSA e S. aureus sensíveis à meticilina (MSSA) isolados de infecções de pele e tecidos moles (SSTI) em pessoas que frequentam centros de saúde em Portugal, 73 amostras foram recolhidas em nove centros de saúde (Rede Médicos Sentinela). Isolou-se um total de 40 S. aureus (55%), dos quais 17,5% eram MRSA. Os isolados de MRSA pertenciam aos clones ST22-IVh (n=4), ST5-IVc (n=2) e ST105-II (n=1), que foram descritos neste estudo como sendo clones de origem hospitalar. Os nossos resultados sugerem que o aumento da frequência de MRSA no HSM pode estar associado à emergência de um clone de MRSA com maior capacidade epidémica. Além disso, verificámos que a principal causa de SSTI em pessoas que frequentam centros de saúde em Portugal são MRSA de origem hospitalar e não MRSA associados à comunidade.------ABSTRACT: Staphylococcus aureus is one of the most important human pathogens, being a major cause of infections worldwide both in the hospital and in the community. In Portugal, the prevalence of methicillin resistant S. aureus (MRSA) in hospitals is one of the highest in Europe and has been characterized extensively; contrarily the prevalence and epidemiology of MRSA in the community has not been followed in a meaningful way. To understand the epidemiological events that could explain a steep increase in MRSA frequency in a major Portuguese central hospital (HSM) within a 17 year period, two MRSA collections recovered in 1993 (n=54) and 2010 (n=180) from pus, blood and urine were analyzed by PFGE, MLST, spa and SCCmec typing. The results showed that a major clonal shift occurred, wherein ST22-IVh clone has replaced the previous ST239-IIIvar and ST247-I clones and accounts for more than 70% of the present population. Moreover, an increase in genetic diversity of MRSA clonal types was observed between the two study periods. With the aim of determining the frequency and clonal nature of MRSA and methicillin-susceptible S. aureus (MSSA) causing skin and soft tissue infections (SSTI) in patients attending healthcare centers in Portugal, 73 samples were collected from nine healthcare centers (Medicos Sentinela Network). A total of 40 S. aureus were isolated, accounting for 55% of the SSTI, of which 17.5% were MRSA. MRSA isolates belonged to ST22-IVh (n=4), ST5-IVc (n=2) and ST105-II (n=1) that have also been described in the hospital in an equivalent period. Our results suggest that the increase in MRSA frequency in HSM may be associated to the emergence of a MRSA clone with higher epidemic potential. Moreover, we propose that the spillover of MRSA from the hospital rather than community-associated-MRSA was the main cause of SSTI in persons attending healthcare centers in Portugal.

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Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering 36(10) 1605–16

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Background: Little is known about the risk of progression to hazardous alcohol use in people currently drinking at safe limits. We aimed to develop a prediction model (predictAL) for the development of hazardous drinking in safe drinkers. Methods: A prospective cohort study of adult general practice attendees in six European countries and Chile followed up over 6 months. We recruited 10,045 attendees between April 2003 to February 2005. 6193 European and 2462 Chilean attendees recorded AUDIT scores below 8 in men and 5 in women at recruitment and were used in modelling risk. 38 risk factors were measured to construct a risk model for the development of hazardous drinking using stepwise logistic regression. The model was corrected for over fitting and tested in an external population. The main outcome was hazardous drinking defined by an AUDIT score >= 8 in men and >= 5 in women. Results: 69.0% of attendees were recruited, of whom 89.5% participated again after six months. The risk factors in the final predictAL model were sex, age, country, baseline AUDIT score, panic syndrome and lifetime alcohol problem. The predictAL model's average c-index across all six European countries was 0.839 (95% CI 0.805, 0.873). The Hedge's g effect size for the difference in log odds of predicted probability between safe drinkers in Europe who subsequently developed hazardous alcohol use and those who did not was 1.38 (95% CI 1.25, 1.51). External validation of the algorithm in Chilean safe drinkers resulted in a c-index of 0.781 (95% CI 0.717, 0.846) and Hedge's g of 0.68 (95% CI 0.57, 0.78). Conclusions: The predictAL risk model for development of hazardous consumption in safe drinkers compares favourably with risk algorithms for disorders in other medical settings and can be a useful first step in prevention of alcohol misuse.

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This study focus on the probabilistic modelling of mechanical properties of prestressing strands based on data collected from tensile tests carried out in Laboratório Nacional de Engenharia Civil (LNEC), Portugal, for certification purposes, and covers a period of about 9 years of production. The strands studied were produced by six manufacturers from four countries, namely Portugal, Spain, Italy and Thailand. Variability of the most important mechanicalproperties is examined and the results are compared with the recommendations of the ProbabilisticModel Code, as well as the Eurocodes and earlier studies. The obtained results show a very low variability which, of course, benefits structural safety. Based on those results, probabilistic modelsfor the most important mechanical properties of prestressing strands are proposed.

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Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Geológica (Georrecursos)

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Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Engenharia Química, especialidade de Engenharia Bioquímica

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Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Engenharia Química e Bioquímica