Determinants of Portuguese trade: 1986-2010

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Electoral opportunism and fiscal policy before and after the EMU

A Masters Thesis, presented as part of the requirements for the award of a Research Masters Degree in Economics from NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Ageing on commercial automotive catalysts, a structure reactivity study

Increasingly stringed regulations for diesel engine emissions have a significant impact on the required efficiency of DOC. Lowered DOC oxidation efficiency due to thermal aging effects influences the efficiency of the exhaust aftertreatment systems downstream of the DOC. In this work carried out in the Jean Le Rond d’Alembert Institute the effect of hydrothermal aging on the reactivity and structure of a commercial DOC was investigated. The characterization of the catalytic performance was carried out on a synthetic gas bench using carrots catalyst under conditions close to the realistic conditions i.e. using a synthetic gas mixture, representative of the exhaust gases from diesel engines. Different structural characterization techniques were performed: textural and morphological proprieties were analyzed by BET and TEM, the characterization of the presented crystallographic phases was performed by DRX and the determination of the number of reducible species was possible by TPR. TEM results shown, an increase of the metal particle size with the aging caused by the agglomeration of metal particles, revealing the presence of metal sintering. DRX results also suggest the presence of support sintering. Furthermore, DRX and BET results unexpectedly reveal that the most drastic aging conditions used actually activated the catalyst surface. As expected, the aging affected negatively the catalyst performance on the oxidation of methane and CO, however an improvement of the NO oxidation performance with the aging was observed. Nevertheless, for the aging conditions used, catalytic activity results show that the influence of aging in DOC performance was not significant, and therefore, more drastic aging conditions must be used.

Support in decision-making under uncertainty: a project risk assessment tool development and supplementary advances

A foremost dispute that persists on the contemporary world’s agenda is change. The on-going social/technological/economic changes create a competitive and challenging environment for companies to endure. To benefit from these changes, world economies partially depend on emerging Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) and their adaptability skills, and subsequently the development of an integrated capability to innovate has become the prime strategy for most of SMEs to subsist and grow. However, innovation and change are always somewhat bonded to an inherent risk development, which subsequently brings on the necessity of a revision of risk management approaches in innovative processes, whose importance SMEs tend to disregard. Additionally, little efforts have been made to improve and create empirical models, metrics and tools to assist SMEs managing latent risks in their innovative projects. This work seeks to present and discuss a solution to support SMEs in engaging on systematic risk management practices, which consists on an integrated risk assessment and response support web-based tool - Spotrisk® - designed for SMEs. On the other hand, an inherent subjectivity is linked with risk management and identification processes, due to uncertainty trait of its nature, for each individual perceives situations according to his own idiosyncrasy, which brings complications in normalizing risk profiles and procedures. This essay aims to bring insights concerning the support in decision-making processes under uncertainty, by addressing issues related with the risk behavior character among individuals. To address such issues, subjects of neuroscience or psychology are explored and models to identify such character are proposed, as well as models to improve presented tool. This work attempts to go beyond the restrictive aim of endeavoring on technical improvement dissertation, and in embraces an exploratory conceptualization concerning micro, small and medium businesses’ traits regarding risk characters and project risk assessment tools.

Portuguese business groups at the beginning of the 21st century: Trends, characteristics and configurations

This study considers the literature on the persistence of business groups in developed economies and analyzes the Portuguese case. The reconstruction of the largest business groups assembles information relevant to define characteristics that enable them to thrive. Increasing internationalization, more specialization in core activities and family control define these types of big businesses. New sectors also emerge as a characteristic of these business groups when compared to the ones existing 40 years ago.

The role of income inequality on fiscal multipliers

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Double Degree in Economics from the Nova School of Business and Economics and University of Maastricht

Macroeconomic effects of monetary policy in the Eurozone

To study the macroeconomic effects of unconventional monetary policy across the different countries of the eurozone, I develop an identification scheme to disentangle conventional from non-conventional policy shocks, using futures contracts on overnight interest rates and the size of the European Central Bank balance sheet. Setting these shocks as endogenous variables in a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model, along with the CPI and the employment rate, estimated impulse response functions of policy to macroeconomic variables are studied. I find that unconventional policy shocks generated mixed effects in inflation but had a positive impact on employment, with the exception of Portugal, Spain, Greece and Italy where the employment response is close to zero or negative. The heterogeneity that characterizes the responses shows that the monetary policy measures taken in recent years were not sufficient to stabilize the economies of the eurozone countries under more severe economic conditions.

O contrato de Project Finance

Currently, Angola portrays a notorious economic growth and due to recent innovative legislations, it has become the major investment attracting pole, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa, having, thus, an extraordinary potentiality for a rapid and sustainable development, likely to place her in outstanding positions in the world economic ranking. Yet, such economic growth entails demanding levels of intensive investment in infrastructure, what has been reported of the Angolan Government to be unable to respond to, save if recurring to very high index of external debt, poisoning, in this way, the future budgeting of the country. Due to these infrastructure investment shortages, the cost of production remains highly onerous and the cost of life extremely unaffordable. On this account, the current study disserts about the contract of Project Finance; an alternative finance resource given as a viable solution for the private financing of infrastructure, aiming to demonstrate that such contractual figure, likewise the experience of several emerging economies and others, is a contract bid framework to take into account in today’s world. It refers to a financing technique – through which the Government may satisfy a common need (for example, the construction of a public domain or public servicing), without having to pay neither offer any collateral – based on a complex legal-financial engineering, arranged throughout a coalition of typical and atypical agreements, whereby it is mandatory to look back at the basic concepts of corporate law. More than just a simple financial study, the dissertation at stake analyses the nature and legal framework of Project Finance, which is a legally atypical and innominate contract, concluding that there is a relevant need for regulating and devoting a special legal regime in the Angolan jurisdiction for this promising legal form in the contemporary corporate finance world.

Valorization of grape pomace through hot compressed water extraction/hydrolysis

The world energy consumption is expected to increase strongly in coming years, because of the emerging economies. Biomass is the only renewable carbon resource that is abundant enough to be used as a source of energy Grape pomace is one of the most abundant agro-industrial residues in the world, being a good biomass resource. The aim of this work is the valorization of grape pomace from white grapes (WWGP) and from red grapes (RWGP), through the extraction of phenolic compounds with antioxidant activity, as well as through the extraction/hydrolysis of carbohydrates, using subcritical water, or hot compressed water (HCW). The main focus of this work is the optimization of the process for WWGP, while for RWGP only one set of parameters were tested. The temperatures used were 170, 190 and 210 °C for WWGP, and 180 °C for RWGP. The water flow rates were 5 and 10 mL/min, and the pressure was always kept at 100 bar. Before performing HCW assays, both residues were characterized, revealing that WWGP is very rich in free sugars (around 40%) essentially glucose and fructose, while RWGP has higher contents of structural sugars, lignin, lipids and protein. For WWGP the best results were achieved at 210 °C and 10 mL/min: higher yield in water soluble compounds (69 wt.%), phenolics extraction (26.2 mg/g) and carbohydrates recovery (49.3 wt.% relative to the existing 57.8%). For RWGP the conditions were not optimized (180 °C and 5 mL/min), and the values of the yield in water soluble compounds (25 wt.%), phenolics extraction (19.5 mg/g) and carbohydrates recovery (11.4 wt.% relative to the existing 33.5%) were much lower. The antioxidant activity of the HCW extracts from each assay was determined, the best result being obtained for WWGP, namely for extracts obtained at 210 °C (EC50=20.8 μg/mL; EC50 = half maximum effective concentration; EC50 = 22.1 μg/mL for RWGP, at 180 ºC).

The economic impact of the event Volta a Portugal em Bicicleta 2015

This thesis is a Field Lab project requested by the organizer of the Volta a Portugal em Bicicleta 2015, Podium Events. Its purpose is to determine the economic impact of the event for the 21 host economies and Portugal as a whole. The Volta started in Viseu and ended in Lisboa, and lasted for two weeks from the 29th July until the 8th August. Results were computed by accessing data provided by the different economic agents involved in the event (spectators, attendees and organizer), through face-to-face surveys and contact via e-mail. The Volta generated a total economic impact of €76.261.876. Keywords: Cycling,

A historical approach to the new secular stagnation hypothesis

In this paper, we analyze the behavior of real interest rates over the long-run using historical data for nine developed economies, to assess the extent to which the recent decline observed in most advanced countries is at odds with the past data, as suggested by the Secular Stagnation hypothesis. By using data from 1703 and performing stationarity and structural breaks tests, we find that the recent decline in interest rates is not explained by a structural break in the time series. Our results also show that considering long-run data leads to different conclusions than using short-run data.

Improving accuracy of inflation forecasts using macroeconomic information

This thesis examines the effects of macroeconomic factors on inflation level and volatility in the Euro Area to improve the accuracy of inflation forecasts with econometric modelling. Inflation aggregates for the EU as well as inflation levels of selected countries are analysed, and the difference between these inflation estimates and forecasts are documented. The research proposes alternative models depending on the focus and the scope of inflation forecasts. I find that models with a Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) in mean process have better explanatory power for inflation variance compared to the regular GARCH models. The significant coefficients are different in EU countries in comparison to the aggregate EU-wide forecast of inflation. The presence of more pronounced GARCH components in certain countries with more stressed economies indicates that inflation volatility in these countries are likely to occur as a result of the stressed economy. In addition, other economies in the Euro Area are found to exhibit a relatively stable variance of inflation over time. Therefore, when analysing EU inflation one have to take into consideration the large differences on country level and focus on those one by one.

The economic impact of the event Volta a Portugal em Bicicleta 2015

This thesis is a Field Lab project requested by the organizer of the Volta a Portugal em Bicicleta 2015, Podium Events. Its purpose is to determine the economic impact of the event for the 21 host economies and Portugal as a whole. The Volta started in Viseu and ended in Lisboa, and lasted for two weeks from the 29th July until the 8th August. Results were computed by accessing data provided by the different economic agents involved in the event (spectators, attendees and organizer), through face-to-face surveys and contact via e-mail. The Volta generated a total economic impact of €76.261.876.

Towards a knowledge society

Economies are moving towards competitive stadiums based on knowledge and innovation. The changing environment and the level of globalization demand important efforts in order to sustain competitive advantages. Portugal has experienced a remarkable evolution since its adhesion to the European Union in several fields: economic development, Research & Development (R&D) consolidation, health parameters and social cohesion. As other developed economies, Portugal started its journey towards a knowledge-based economy and has been consolidating an innovation system during the last 35 years. The following report aims to analyze the evolution of a system since its creation to its last transformation within a globalized context. Challenges such as the lack of maturity of the system, the economic crisis, the European paradox, and closing the gap with other European countries are addressed in the next chapters. Likewise, recommendations on these points are provided by the end of the report as potential solutions.

Sustained competitive advantage of different sized multinational corporations in rural base of the pyramid markets

This thesis explores how multinational corporations of different sizes create barriers to imitation and therefore sustain competitive advantage in rural and informal Base of the Pyramid economies. These markets require close cooperation with local partners in a dynamic environment that lacks imposable property rights and follows a different rationale than developed markets. In order to explore how competitive advantage is sustained by different sized multinational corporations at the Base of the Pyramid, the natural-resource-based view and the dynamic capabilities perspective are integrated. Based on this integration the natural-resource-based view is extended by identifying critical dynamic capabilities that are assumed to be sources of competitive advantage at the Base of the Pyramid. Further, a contrasting case study explores how the identified dynamic capabilities are protected and their competitive advantage is sustained by isolating mechanisms that create barriers to imitation for a small to medium sized and a large multinational corporation. The case study results give grounds to assume that most resource-based isolating mechanisms create barriers to imitation that are fairly high for large and established multinational corporations that operate at the rural Base of the Pyramid and have a high product and business model complexity. On the contrary, barriers to imitation were found to be lower for young and small to medium sized multinational corporations with low product and business model complexity that according to some authors represent the majority of rural Base of the Pyramid companies. Particularly for small to medium sized multinational corporations the case study finds a relationship- and transaction-based unwillingness of local partners to act opportunistically rather than a resource-based inability to imitate. By offering an explanation of sustained competitive advantage for small to medium sized multinational corporations at the rural Base of the Pyramid this thesis closes an important research gap and recommends to include institutional and transaction-based research perspectives.