Three essays on the term structure of interest rates

A PhD Dissertation, presented as part of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy from the NOVA - School of Business and Economics

War and propaganda in the XXth Century

Propaganda represented the sacrifice of soldiers in war and praised the power of the country. It has been around these images that all over the world entire populations were mobilized on the expectation of victory. Through the static image of printed posters or the newspaper news projected in cinemas all over the globe, governments sought to promote a patriotic spirit, encouraging the effort of individual sacrifice by sending a clear set of messages that directly appealed to the voluntary enlistment in the armies, messages that explained the important of rationing essential goods, of the intensification of food production or the purchase of war bonds, exacerbating feelings, arousing emotions and projecting an image divided between the notion of superiority and the idea of fear of the opponent. From press, in the First World War, to radio in World War II, to television and cinema from the 1950s onwards, propaganda proved to be a weapon as deadly as those managed by soldiers in the battlefield. That’s why it is essential to analyse and discuss the topic of War and Propaganda in the Twentieth Century. This conference is organized by the IHC and the CEIS20 and is part of the Centennial Program of the Great War, organized by the IHC, and the International Centennial Program coordinated by the Imperial War Museum in London.

Individual and aggregate money demands

I construct a model in which money and bond holdings are consistent with individual decisions and aggregate variables such as production and interest rates. The agents are infinitely-lived, have constant-elasticity preferences, and receive a fraction of their income in money. Each agent solves a Baumol-Tobin money management problem. Markets are segmented because financial frictions make agents trade bonds for money at different times. Trading frequency, consumption, government decisions and prices are mutually consistent. An increase in inflation, for example, implies higher trading frequency, more bonds sold to account for seigniorage, and lower real balances.

Transparency in project bond ratings: Assessment of rating methodologies and development of a proven rating simulator

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Machine learning Gaussian short rate

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Estatística e Gestão do Risco

Rebalancing frequency and the welfare cost of inflation

Cash-in-advance models usually require agents to reallocate money and bonds in fixed periods, every month or quarter, for example. I show that fixed periods underestimate the welfare cost of inflation. I use a model in which agents choose how often they exchange bonds for money. In the benchmark specification, the welfare cost of ten percent instead of zero inflation increases from 0.1 percent of income with fixed periods to one percent with optimal periods. The results are robust to different preferences, to different compositions of income in bonds or money, and to the introduction of capital and labor.

Characterization of molecular damage induced by UV photons and carbon ions on biomimetic heterostructures

The study of the effect of radiation on living tissues is a rather complex task to address mainly because they are made of a set of complex functional biological structures and interfaces. Particularly if one is looking for where damage is taking place in a first stage and what are the underlying reaction mechanisms. In this work a new approach is addressed to study the effect of radiation by making use of well identified molecular hetero-structures samples which mimic the biological environment. These were obtained by assembling onto a solid support deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) and phospholipids together with a soft water-containing polyelectrolyte precursor in layered structures and by producing lipid layers at liquid/air interface with DNA as subphase. The effects of both ultraviolet (UV) radiation and carbon ions beams were systematically investigated in these heterostructures, namely damage on DNA by means vacuum ultraviolet (VUV), infrared (IR), X-Ray Photoelectron (XPS) and impedance spectroscopy. Experimental results revealed that UV affects furanose, PO2-, thymines, cytosines and adenines groups. The XPS spectrometry carried out on the samples allowed validate the VUV and IR results and to conclude that ionized phosphate groups, surrounded by the sodium counterions, congregate hydration water molecules which play a role of UV protection. The ac electrical conductivity measurements revealed that the DNA electrical conduction is arising from DNA chain electron hopping between base-pairs and phosphate groups, with the hopping distance equal to the distance between DNA base-pairs and is strongly dependent on UV radiation exposure, due loss of phosphate groups. Characterization of DNA samples exposed to a 4 keV C3+ ions beam revealed also carbon-oxygen bonds break, phosphate groups damage and formation of new species. Results from radiation induced damage carried out on biomimetic heterostructures having different compositions revealed that damage is dependent on sample composition, with respect to functional targeted groups and extent of damage. Conversely, LbL films of 1,2-dipalmitoyl-sn-Glycero-3-[Phospho-rac-(1-glycerol)] (Sodium Salt) (DPPG) liposomes, alternated with poly(allylamine hydrochloride) (PAH) revealed to be unaffected, even by prolonged UV irradiation exposure, in the absence of water molecules. However, DPPG molecules were damaged by the UV radiation in presence of water with cleavage of C-O, C=O and –PO2- bonds. Finally, the study of DNA interaction with the ionic lipids at liquid/air interfaces revealed that electrical charge of the lipid influences the interaction of phospholipid with DNA. In the presence of DNA in the subphase, the effects from UV irrladiation were seen to be smaller, which means that ionic products from biomolecules degradation stabilize the intact DPPG molecules. This mechanism may explain why UV irradiation does not cause immediate cell collapse, thus providing time for the cellular machinery to repair elements damaged by UV.

Rebalancing frequency and the welfare cost of inflation

Cash-in-advance models usually require agents to reallocate money and bonds in fixed periods. Every month or quarter, for example. I show that fixed periods underestimate the welfare cost of inflation. I use a model in which agents choose how often they exchange bonds for money. In the benchmark specification, the welfare cost of 10 percent instead of 0 inflation increases from 0.1 percent of income with fixed periods to 1 percent with optimal periods. The results are robust to different references, to different compositions of income in bonds or money, and to the introduction of capital and labor.

Beyond the carry trade: Optimal currency portfolios

Author's Pre-print

The Portuguese contemporary art as an investment

In this paper we investigate what drives the prices of Portuguese contemporary art at auction and explore the potential of art as an asset. Based on a hedonic prices model we construct an Art Price Index as a proxy for the Portuguese contemporary art market over the period of 1994 to 2014. A performance analysis suggests that art underperforms the S&P500 but overperforms the Portuguese stock market and American Government bonds. However, It does it at the cost of higher risk. Results also show that art as low correlation with financial markets, evidencing some potential in risk mitigation when added to traditional equity portfolios.

Os seguros de riscos catastróficos

Este livro pertence à Colecção Obras Colectivas da Editora Almedina e tem a coordenação de Carla Amado Gomes

Catástrofes naturais e seguros

Actas do Colóquio "Catástrofes naturais – uma realidade multidimensional" sob a coordenação de Carla Amado Gomes e Rute Gil Saraiva

Trading the differences in expectations between the CDS and bond markets

This paper uses the framework developed by Vrugt (2010) to extract the recovery rate and term-structure of risk-neutral default probabilities implied in the cross-section of Portuguese sovereign bonds outstanding between March and August 2011. During this period the expectations on the recovery rate remain firmly anchored around 50 percent while the instantaneous default probability increases steadily from 6 to above 30 percent. These parameters are then used to calculate the fair-value of a 5-year and 10- year CDS contract. A credit-risk-neutral strategy is developed from the difference between the market price of a CDS of the same tenors and the fair-value calculated, yielding a sharpe ratio of 3.2

Reactive electron scattering from biomolecules and technologically relevant molecules

The role of a set of gases relevant within the context of biomolecules and technologically relevant molecules under the interaction of low-energy electrons was studied in an effort to contribute to the understanding of the underlying processes yielding negative ion formation. The results are relevant within the context of damage to living material exposed to energetic radiation, to the role of dopants in the ion-molecule chemistry processes, to Electron Beam Induced Deposition (EBID) and Ion Beam Induced Deposition (IBID) techniques. The research described in this thesis addresses dissociative electron attachment (DEA) and electron transfer studies involving experimental setups from the University of Innsbruck, Austria and Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Portugal, respectively. This thesis presents DEA studies, obtained by a double focusing mass spectrometer, of dimethyl disulphide (C2H6S2), two isomers, enflurane and isoflurane (C3F5Cl5) and two chlorinated ethanes, pentachloroethane (C2HCl5) and hexachloroethane (C2Cl6), along with quantum chemical calculations providing information on the molecular orbitals as well as thermochemical thresholds of anion formation for enflurane, isoflurane, pentachloroethane and hexachloroethane. The experiments represent the most accurate DEA studies to these molecules, with significant differences from previous work reported in the literature. As far as electron transfer studies are concerned, negative ion formation in collisions of neutral potassium atoms with N1 and N3 methylated pyrimidine molecules were obtained by time-of-flight mass spectrometry (TOF). The results obtained allowed to propose concerted mechanisms for site and bond selective excision of bonds.

Managing marginal capital requirements in solvency II: Analysis of a real insurance portfolio

This thesis provides a complete analysis of the Standard Capital Requirements given by Solvency II for a real insurance portfolio. We analyze the investment portfolio of BPI Vida e Pensões, an insurance company affiliated with a Portuguese bank BPI, both at security, sub-portfolio and asset class levels. By using the Standard Formula from EIOPA, Total SCR amounts to 239M€. This value is mostly explained by Market and Default Risk whereas the former is driven by Spread and Concentration Risks. Following the methodology of Leblanc (2011), we examine the Marginal Contribution of an asset to the SCR which allows for the evaluation of the risks of each security given its characteristics and interactions in the portfolio. The top contributors to the SCR are Corporate Bonds and Term Deposits. By exploring further the composition of the portfolio, our results show that slight changes in allocation of Term and Cash Deposits have severe impacts on the total Concentration and Default Risks, respectively. Also, diversification effects are very relevant by representing savings of 122M€. Finally, Solvency II represents an opportunity for the portfolio optimization. By constructing efficient frontiers, we find that as the target expected return increases, a shift from Term Deposits/ Commercial Papers to Eurozone/Peripheral and finally Equities occurs.