Migrant networks and migrant intentions to return

Social ties are potentially an important determinant of migrants’ intention to return to their home country, and yet this topic has not been addressed in the existing economics literature on international migration. This study examines the absolute and relative importance of migrant social networks both at destination and at origin. We base our research on experimental data from Batista and Narciso (2013)1. By defining networks according to different characteristics of their members and migrant return intentions with respect to three different time horizons, we are able to dissect the network effect into its components. After controlling for unobserved heterogeneity and reverse causality biases we find that network at home seems to be the most important determinant of the migrant’s intention to return home within five and ten years.

Fiscal dynamics and electoral behavior in the Eurozone

Abstract: The Stability Growth Pact and the 3% rule did not prevent countries from running large deficits. Countries in the EMU administrate fiscal policies differently, despite the existence of a common quantitative goal. The main focus of this work project is to study differences in the fiscal dynamics of eight EMU countries and assess the role of political variables in shaping those dynamics. We find that elections negatively affect government revenue in Austria, Belgium, Portugal, Spain and Germany. Expenditure, on the other hand, responds positively to incoming elections in Portugal, Italy, France and Netherlands, and negatively in the case of Germany.

Understanding churn and its reasons: The GuestU case

In the age of computerisation, entrepreneurs around the world aim to revolutionise their field with ground-breaking ICTs. GuestU is one of those offering mobile application development to small and medium-sized tourism enterprises. To assure the young start-ups steady growth this paper aims to identify reasons for the high customer churn risk. Primary data is used to analyse end-user behaviour and particularly the success of acquisition and activation. Results show troubling download quantities as well as retention rates leading to the recommendations for GuestU to incentivise and guide their customers in increasing promotion for the applications.

On the labor share the long-run equilibrium and its adjustment process

This research computes an Equilibrium Labor Share using a VECM for a panel of 19 countries, analyzes what determines the speed at which the labor share adjusts towards that equilibrium and decomposes this adjustment in terms of real wages and employment. Results suggest that the speed at which a country adjusts decreases with employment protection legislation and labor taxes. Most countries’ labor shares adjustment is made through real wages changes instead of changing employment, suggesting that wage moderation policies may play an important role on the adjustment process without harming employment.

Modeling and optimization of extracellular polysaccharides production by Enterobacter A47

Polysaccharides are gaining increasing attention as potential environmental friendly and sustainable building blocks in many fields of the (bio)chemical industry. The microbial production of polysaccharides is envisioned as a promising path, since higher biomass growth rates are possible and therefore higher productivities may be achieved compared to vegetable or animal polysaccharides sources. This Ph.D. thesis focuses on the modeling and optimization of a particular microbial polysaccharide, namely the production of extracellular polysaccharides (EPS) by the bacterial strain Enterobacter A47. Enterobacter A47 was found to be a metabolically versatile organism in terms of its adaptability to complex media, notably capable of achieving high growth rates in media containing glycerol byproduct from the biodiesel industry. However, the industrial implementation of this production process is still hampered due to a largely unoptimized process. Kinetic rates from the bioreactor operation are heavily dependent on operational parameters such as temperature, pH, stirring and aeration rate. The increase of culture broth viscosity is a common feature of this culture and has a major impact on the overall performance. This fact complicates the mathematical modeling of the process, limiting the possibility to understand, control and optimize productivity. In order to tackle this difficulty, data-driven mathematical methodologies such as Artificial Neural Networks can be employed to incorporate additional process data to complement the known mathematical description of the fermentation kinetics. In this Ph.D. thesis, we have adopted such an hybrid modeling framework that enabled the incorporation of temperature, pH and viscosity effects on the fermentation kinetics in order to improve the dynamical modeling and optimization of the process. A model-based optimization method was implemented that enabled to design bioreactor optimal control strategies in the sense of EPS productivity maximization. It is also critical to understand EPS synthesis at the level of the bacterial metabolism, since the production of EPS is a tightly regulated process. Methods of pathway analysis provide a means to unravel the fundamental pathways and their controls in bioprocesses. In the present Ph.D. thesis, a novel methodology called Principal Elementary Mode Analysis (PEMA) was developed and implemented that enabled to identify which cellular fluxes are activated under different conditions of temperature and pH. It is shown that differences in these two parameters affect the chemical composition of EPS, hence they are critical for the regulation of the product synthesis. In future studies, the knowledge provided by PEMA could foster the development of metabolically meaningful control strategies that target the EPS sugar content and oder product quality parameters.

Practice variations in the production of health

This study investigates three questions related to medical practice variation. First, it tests whether average length of stay across Portuguese National Health Service hospitals varies when controlling for differences in patients’ characteristics. Second, it looks at hospital-level characteristics in order to find out whether these are able to explain differences in average length of stay across hospitals. Finally, it proposes a best practice average length of stay for each of the six episodes of care analyzed. To perform the analysis, administrative data from the Diagnosis-Related groups’ data set for the year of 2012 was used. A replication of a hierarchical two-stage model with hospital fixed effects was carried out. The results show that after taking patients’ characteristics into account, variation in average length of stay across hospitals exists. This variation cannot be explained by hospital-level characteristics.

Assessing the role of social networks on migrant labor market outcomes: Evidence from a representative immigrant survey

What role do social networks play in determining migrant labor market outcomes? We examine this question using data from a random sample of 1500 immigrants living in Ireland. We propose a theoretical model formally predicting that immigrants with more contacts have additional access to job offers, and are therefore better able to become employed and choose higher paid jobs. Our empirical analysis confirms these findings, while focusing more generally on the relationship between migrants’ social networks and a variety of labor market outcomes (namely wages, employment, occupational choice and job security), contrary to the literature. We find evidence that having one more contact in the network is associated with an increase of 11pp in the probability of being employed and with an increase of about 100 euros in the average salary. However, our data is not suggestive of a network size effect on occupational choice and job security. Our findings are robust to sample selection and other endogeneity concerns.

Alpha generation with Twitter’s daily momentum

This thesis does not set out to focus on the dynamics relationship between Twitter and stock prices, but instead tries to understand if using relevant information extracted from tweets has the power to increase investors’ stock picking ability, and generate alpha in portfolio’s choice relative to a benchmark. Despite the short period analyzed, it gives promising results that the sentiment analysis performed by Social Market Analytics Inc. applied to an equity portfolio, is able to generate positive abnormal returns, statistically significant in and out of sample.

Introducing risk parity on momentum and carry portfolios

The momentum and carry anomalies have been extensively documented in the literature. However, there are still many issues relating to the risks associated to them that are left unexplained. One is the fact that an investor holds for too long the most volatile assets, both under momentum and carry strategies. Therefore, they present a level of risk and a probability of extreme events to happen inconsistent. This work project hypothesizes and proves the introduction of risk parity rules on the weights of the portfolios do increase risk rewarding of carry strategies. However, it fails under momentum strategies.

Predicting market movement with Artificial Neural Networks

This paper presents an application of an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to the prediction of stock market direction in the US. Using a multilayer perceptron neural network and a backpropagation algorithm for the training process, the model aims at learning the hidden patterns in the daily movement of the S&P500 to correctly identify if the market will be in a Trend Following or Mean Reversion behavior. The ANN is able to produce a successful investment strategy which outperforms the buy and hold strategy, but presents instability in its overall results which compromises its practical application in real life investment decisions.

A segurança no terrorismo e na indústria dos eventos

Nowadays, safety and security regarding the tourism and events industries are a fundamental subject to society. Portugal’s tourism has significantly increased its number of visitors, whether due to the increasing number of cruisers docking in Lisbon, or due to visitors arriving by air, travelling the country from North to South and staying in the most varied accommodation units. Issues like human security and internal security of the different countries, even the security in the world, as development factors of a modern society, are discussed on a daily basis. On the contrary, few deal with tourism and major events security as being part of internal security, as well as the existing barriers tourism encounters to integrate the system for fighting terrorism. Although two distinct activities, they are complementary and may influence the country’s economy, provided that they can offer certainty to all actors involved. It is this substance that organised crime groups look for when planning terror acts. Therefore, as tourism can offer deception and shelter opportunities and events the theatre of a possible attack, those events assemble all the necessary conditions for an attack to achieve its goals.

Do Comandante Supremo das Forças Armadas

The President of the Portuguese Republic’s relation with the Armed Forces in the current political system is not confined to the vast legislative and constitutional set. As Chief of State and Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces, the President holds different powers. We develop an approach through the main concepts and themes that regulate the Armed Forces and National Defense, focusing the relations that involve the President directly. The attribution by inherence of the Supreme Command of the Armed Forces to the Chief of State, imposes a peculiar relation with the remainder sovereign institutions. The need to analyze the intermediate services as far as military and defense issues are concerned becomes necessary, in particular the role of the Military Cabinet – as a structure of direct support – and the High Council of National Defense – as an advisory body.

Consulting project for the marketing oil department of Galp Energia evaluation of marketing campaigns

Field lab: Consulting lab

Carl Icahn pushes ebay to spin-off paypal

The following case-study describes the situation involving eBay, PayPal and Carl Icahn as of February 2014. Its structure is divided between the narrative and a teaching note. The case narrative describes all the events between the three parties until the 24th of February 2014, when the activist investor Carl Icahn sends a public shareholder letter strongly criticizing eBay’s board and corporate governance practices while proposing at the same time the spin-off of PayPal from eBay. The teaching note intends to analyse the possibility of spinning-off PayPal, while at the same time analysing the Corporate Governance issues in eBay’s board. The final conclusion in the teaching note is favourable towards the spin-off of PayPal.