Synopsis of global scenario and forecasting surveys scenarios in risk habitat megacity (RHM)

The main objective of the paper is to provide a synopsis of global scenario and forecasting surveys. First, the paper will give an overview on existing global scenario and forecasting surveys and their specific scenario philosophies and storylines. Second, the major driving forces that shape and characterise the different scenarios will be identified. The scenario analysis has been provided for the research project Risk Habitat Megacity (HRM) that aims at developing strategies for sustainable development in megacities and urban agglomerations. The analysis of international scenario surveys is an essential component within RHM. The scenario analysis will be the basis and source for the development of own RHM-framework scenarios and for defining specific driving forces of change.

Assessing scenarios on the future of work

In this paper will be discussed different types of scenarios and the aims for using scenarios. Normaly they are being used by organisations due to the need to anticipate processes, to support policy-making and to understand the complexities of relations. Such organisations can be private companies, R&D organisations and networks of organisations, or even by some public administration institutions. Some cases will be discussed as the methods for ongoing scenario-building process (Shell Internacional). Scenarios should anticipate possible relations among social actors as in the Triple Helix Model, and is possible to develop strategic intelligence in the innovation process that would enable the construction of scenarios. Such processes can be assessed. The focus will be made in relation to the steps chosen for the WORKS scenarios. In this case is there a model of work changes that can be used for foresight? Differences according to sectors were found, as well on other dimensions. Problems of assessment are analysed with specific application to the scenario construction methods.

Integrating the theme approach with aspectual scenarios

Dissertação de Mestrado em Engenharia Informática

The International Multilateral System: Imperatives of Change, Potential Scenarios and Suggestions for the Future

Thesis presented to satisfy the necessary requirements for obtaining a PhD degree in International Relation with specialization in Globalization and the Environment,

Impacts of climate change scenarios on terrestrial productivity and biomass for energy in the Iberian Peninsula: assessment through the JSBACH model

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia do Ambiente, Perfil de Gestão e Sistemas Ambientais

Credit risk stress testing: The Portuguese environment, macroeconomic scenarios and the estimation of losses for corporate sectors

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Clearing the cloudy crystal balls: Hybrid modelling for energy and climate change mitigation scenarios – A case study for Portugal

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Ambiente

Toxicity of carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons and their mixtures to aquatic organisms under ecologically-relevant scenarios

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are ubiquitous priority pollutants that tend to be trapped in aquatic sediments due to their high hydrophobicity. Nonetheless, the differential toxicological effects and mechanisms between the various classes of PAHs and their mixtures, as they invariably occur in the environment, are scarcely known, especially under ecologically-relevant scenarios. This thesis aimed at establishing a bridge between the study of mechanistic pathways and environmental monitoring of carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic PAHs, by introducing ecological-relevance in the research with model PAHs. A first bioassay conducted in situ with the mussel Mytilus edulis demonstrated that, dredging operations in harbours increase PAH bioavailability, eliciting genotoxicity, and showed that established environmental guidelines underestimate risk. Subsequent ex situ bioassays were performed with the carcinogenic benzo[b]fluoranthene (B[b]F) and non-carcinogenic phenantrene (Phe), selected following preceding results, and revealed that low-moderate concentrations of these PAHs in spiked sediments induce genotoxic effects to the clam Ruditapes decussatus, therefore contradicting the general notion that bivalves are less sensitive to PAHs than vertebrates due to inefficient bioactivation. Also, it was demonstrated that passive samplers permit inferring on PAH bioavailability but not on bioaccumulation or toxic effects. On the other hand, sea basses (Dicentrarchus labrax), yielded a complex pattern of effects and responses, relatively to genotoxicity, oxidative stress and production of specific metabolites, especially when exposed to mixtures of the PAHs which led to additive, if not synergistic, effects. It was shown that Phe may elicit significant genotoxicity especially in presence of B[b]F, even though the low, albeit realistic, exposure concentrations diluted dose- and time-independent relationships. The present work demonstrated that environmental quality guidelines underestimate the effects of PAHs in realistic scenarios and showed that the significant genotoxic and histopathological effects caused by mixed PAHs may not be reflected by oxidative stress- or CYP-related biomarkers. Besides important findings on the metabolism of PAH mixtures, the work calls for the need to re-evaluate the criteria for assessing risk and for the disclosure of more efficient indicators of toxicological hazard.

Tendências futuras de evolução das qualificações na Europa

The aim of this report is to highlight the importance of foresight exercises as a necessary tool to help the decision makers, allowing through projections and identification of the main trends, the identification of the key variables of the process and which ones may have more influence in the process of evolution of societies. It will be presented some examples of prospective methods and also scenarios construction. One example is the European project WORKS (Work organization restructuring in the knowledge society) that pretend to built a set of scenarios about the possible evolution of work in Europe in a short, medium and long term, stressing the key variables that may have an important role in the process and their interconnections. Another exemple is the report ‘Future skill needs in Europe’ prepared in 2008 by Cedefop, that presents data about the future development of employment by industry, occupation and qualification by 2015.

Autonomous behaviors for an unmanned mini-aerial vehicle

This thesis aims at addressing the development of autonomous behaviors, for search and exploration with a mini-UAV (Unmanned Aerial Vehicle), or also called MAV (Mini Aerial Vehicle) prototype, in order to gather information in rescue scenarios. The platform used in this work is a four rotor helicopter, known as quad-rotor from the German company Ascending Technologies GmbH, which is later assembled with a on-board processing unit (i.e. a tiny light weight computer) and a on-board sensor suite (i.e. 2D-LIDAR and Ultrasonic Sonar). This work can be divided into two phases. In the first phase an Indoor Position Tracking system was settled in order to obtain the Cartesian coordinates (i.e. X, Y, Z) and orientation (i.e.heading) which provides the relative position and orientation of the platform. The second phase was the design and implementation of medium/high level controllers on each command input in order to autonomously control the aircraft position, which is the first step towards an autonomous hovering flight, and any autonomous behavior (e.g. Landing, Object avoidance, Follow the wall). The main work is carried out in the Laboratory ”Intelligent Systems for Emergencies and Civil Defense”, in collaboration with ”Dipartimento di Informatica e Sistemistica” of Sapienza Univ. of Rome and ”Istituto Superiore Antincendi” of the Italian Firemen Department.

Traceability support in software product lines

Dissertação apresentada na Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Informática.

O plano de deslocações urbanas e a resposta estratégica que falta aos PROTs e PDMs: A descentralização do planeamento do território e dos transportes

The sustainable urban mobility plan is the framework of planning and organisation of mobility system. It is a strategic and operational plan with consequences in the planning and organisation of territorial and transport systems. When it’s defining the principles and the objectives of sustainable development and when it’s working in the scenarios of modal shift more favourable to the alternative modes than the car, the planning and the organisation of territory will be integrated on the political of reduction of road circulation volumes, in the reduction of GEE, waste of space and time, in the improvement of quality of urban environment. The Urbanism Agencies and the Urban Transport Authorities will get their selves in the urban mobility plan, in territory scenarios development, mobility and transports, with the objective to understand the sustainable politics in the accessibilities which are available by the transportation bill. In Portugal, although the authorities are not yet working, the law (1/2009) recently approved in last December and published at the beginning of the year, they have the sustainable urban mobility plans forward in this strategy.

Assessment of climate change statistical downscaling methods: Application and comparison of two statistical methods to a single site in Lisbon

Dissertação apresentada na Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia do Ambiente

Oysters return to the Tagus estuary through an ecological model

Dissertation submitted to the Faculty of Sciences and Technology of New University of Lisbon for obtaining the degree of Master in Environmental Management Systems

Analysis of support for modularity in object teams based on design patterns

Dissertação de Mestrado em Engenharia Informática