Effects of a monetary union on a small peripheral country: Stabilization and competitiveness in Portugal

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Liquidity, business cycles and monetary policy: A simulation

A Masters Thesis, presented as part of the requirements for the award of a Research Masters Degree in Economics from NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Macroeconomic effects of monetary policy in the Eurozone

To study the macroeconomic effects of unconventional monetary policy across the different countries of the eurozone, I develop an identification scheme to disentangle conventional from non-conventional policy shocks, using futures contracts on overnight interest rates and the size of the European Central Bank balance sheet. Setting these shocks as endogenous variables in a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model, along with the CPI and the employment rate, estimated impulse response functions of policy to macroeconomic variables are studied. I find that unconventional policy shocks generated mixed effects in inflation but had a positive impact on employment, with the exception of Portugal, Spain, Greece and Italy where the employment response is close to zero or negative. The heterogeneity that characterizes the responses shows that the monetary policy measures taken in recent years were not sufficient to stabilize the economies of the eurozone countries under more severe economic conditions.

Search-for-yield in Portuguese fixed-income mutual funds and monetary policy

This paper studies the effects of monetary policy on mutual fund risk taking using a sample of Portuguese fixed-income mutual funds in the 2000-2012 period. Firstly I estimate time-varying measures of risk exposure (betas) for the individual funds, for the benchmark portfolio, as well as for a representative equally-weighted portfolio, through 24-month rolling regressions of a two-factor model with two systematic risk factors: interest rate risk (TERM) and default risk (DEF). Next, in the second phase, using the estimated betas, I try to understand what portion of the risk exposure is in excess of the benchmark (active risk) and how it relates to monetary policy proxies (one-month rate, Taylor residual, real rate and first principal component of a cross-section of government yields and rates). Using this methodology, I provide empirical evidence that Portuguese fixed-income mutual funds respond to accommodative monetary policy by significantly increasing exposure, in excess of their benchmarks, to default risk rate and slightly to interest risk rate as well. I also find that the increase in funds’ risk exposure to gain a boost in return (search-for-yield) is more pronounced following the 2007-2009 global financial crisis, indicating that the current historic low interest rates may incentivize excessive risk taking. My results suggest that monetary policy affects the risk appetite of non-bank financial intermediaries.

Deflation and monetary policy: A look into Japan and the Euro Area

With more than two decades of weak economic performance since the bubble burst in the ‘90s, the Japanese deflationary scenario has become the economic fate every developed economy fears to become. As the euro area continues to experience sustained low inflation, studying the Japanese monetary policy may shed light on how to prevent persistent deflation. Using an SVAR methodology to understand the monetary transmission mechanism, we find some evidence that the euro area may possess characteristics that would eventually lead to a deflationary scenario. The extent of whether it would suffer the same Japanese fate would depend on how macroeconomic policies are timely coordinated as a response to its liquidity problem and increasing public debt across member states.

Microstructural changes befor macroeconomic announcements: Predictability of economic surprises in the U.S. market

Flow of new information is what produces price changes, understanding if the market is unbalanced is fundamental to know how much inventory market makers should keep during an important economic release. After identifying which economic indicators impact the S&P and 10 year Treasuries. The Volume Synchronized Probability of Information-Based Trading (VPIN) will be used as a predictability measure. The results point to some predictability power over economic surprises of the VPIN metric, mainly when calculated using the S&P. This finding appears to be supported when analysing depth imbalance before economic releases. Inferior results were achieved when using treasuries. The final aim of this study is to fill the gap between microstructural changes and macroeconomic events.

Information Society in Croatia, Landsc@pes of Knowledge for Development

Sabbatical Studies Report

Does corruption drive the stock market?

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Bank-firm relationships and financial crisis

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

The impact of Ireland’s current Mental Health Policy on the profile of community mental Health Services

RESUMO: Em 2006, foi aprovada uma nova política governamental para a saúde mental intitulada “Uma Visão para a Mudança”, a qual está neste momento no sétimo ano de implementação. A política descreve um enquadramento para o desenvolvimento e promoção da saúde mental positiva para toda a Comunidade e para a prestação de serviços acessíveis, baseados na comunidade, serviços especializados para pessoas com doença mental. A implementação da política e o tornar a “Vision for Change” uma realidade têm sido problemáticos, com críticas consideráveis por parte dos intervenientes, relativas à lenta e desconexa implementação. Este estudo fornece informação sobre as características dos serviços de três importantes tipos de instituições de saúde mental comunitária a nível nacional, nomeadamente Hospitais de Dia, Centros de Dia e residências comunitárias operantes 24 horas. A pesquisa analisa objetivos e funções, perfis dos pacientes, atividades terapêuticas, a eficácia das redes de comunicação e beneficia da perspectiva dos funcionários sobre o que mudou no terreno ao longo dos últimos sete anos. As questões identificadas a partir das características dos três serviços dizem respeito a todos. Os participantes indicaram que o ethos da recuperação parece ter alcançado um papel mais central no tratamento do paciente na comunidade mas reconheceram que o desafio de integrar os princípios de recuperação na prática clínica se mantém presente. Parece ser reconhecida a importância da planificação do cuidado individual nos serviços comunitários e os entrevistados indicaram que existe um empenho para garantir o envolvimento do usuário do serviço. Há diferenças entre os „pontos de vista do pessoal‟ e os „pontos de vista dos representantes‟ sobre uma série de aspetos da prestação de serviços. Este é o primeiro estudo irlandês deste género a examinar a prestação de serviços das três principais instituições comunitárias de saúde mental num só estudo. Estes serviços representam um enorme investimento em recursos, quer a nível monetário, quer humano. O estudo examinou os desafios e as questões fundamentais que lhe são aplicáveis e que têm impacto nestes três tipos de prestação de serviços. Também forneceu informações sobre os elementos de mudança positiva, os quais se começam a focar lentamente na prestação do serviço, assim como na importância da centralidade do utilizador do serviço e na promoção de um ethos da recuperação.----------ABSTRACT: In 2006, a new Government policy for mental health “A Vision for Change” was endorsed and is currently in the seventh year of implementation. The policy describes a comprehensive framework for building and fostering positive mental health across the entire community and for providing accessible, community based, specialist services for people with mental illness. The implementation of the policy and turning “Vision for Change” into reality has been problematic with considerable criticism from stakeholders concerning slow and disjointed implementation. This study provides information on three key community mental health service settings, namely Day Hospitals, Day Centres and 24 Hour Community Residences at a national level. The research looks at aims and functions, patient profiles, therapeutic activities, effectiveness of key communication networks and gains an insight from staff on what has changed on the ground over the past seven years. Issues identified from the three service settings pertain to all. Participants indicated that the recovery ethos appears to have moved to a more central role in patient care in the community but acknowledged that the challenge of integrating recovery principles in clinical practice remains present. The importance of individual care planning appears to be recognised in community services and respondents indicated that efforts are being made to ensure service user involvement. There were differences between „staff views‟ and „advocate views‟ on a number of aspects of service provision. This is the first Irish study of its kind to examine service provision across the three main community mental health settings in one study. These services represent a huge investment in resources both on a monetary and human level. This study has examined the challenges and key issues which are applicable and impacting on all three types of service provision. It has also provided information on the elements of positive change, which are slowly embedding themselves in service provision such as the importance of the centricity of the service user and the promotion of a recovery ethos.

Adjusting to external imbalances within the EMU, the case of Portugal

From 1995 to 2010 Portugal has accumulated a negative international asset position of 110 percent of GDP. In a developed and aging economy the number is astonishing and any argument to consider it sustainable must rely on extremely favorable forecasts on growth. Portuguese policy options are reduced in number: no autonomous monetary policy, no currency to devaluate, and limited discretion in changing fiscal deficits and government debt. To start the necessary deleveraging a remaining possible policy is a budget-neutral change of the tax structure that increases private saving and net exports. An increase in the VAT and a decrease in the employer’s social security contribution tax can achieve the desired outcome in the short run if they are complemented with wage moderation. To obtain a substantial improvement in competitiveness and a large decrease in consumption, the changes in the tax rates have to be large. While a precise quantitative assessment is difficult, the initial increase in the effective VAT rate needed to allow the social security tax to decrease by 16 percentage points (pp) is approximately 10 pp. Such a large increase in the effective VAT rate could be obtained by raising most of the reduced VAT rates to the new general VAT rate of 23 percent. The empirical analysis shows that over time the suggested tax swap could generate surpluses and improve the trade balance. A temporary version of the suggested tax-swap has the attractiveness to achieve a sharper increase in the private saving rate maintaining the short run gains in competitiveness. Finally, the temporary version of the fiscal devaluation could be the basis for an automatic stabilizer to external imbalances within a monetary union.Portugal has been running large current account deficits every year since 1995. These deficits have accumulated to an astonishing 110 percent of GDP negative external asset position. The sustainability of such a large external position is questionable and must rely on fantastic productivity growth expectations. The recent global financial crisis appears to have anticipated the international investors reality check on those future expectations with the result of a large increase in the cost of external financing. Today the rebalancing of the current account through an increase in national savings and an improvement in competitiveness must be at the top of the Portuguese authorities “to do” list as the cost of a pull out from international investors is of the order of 10% of GDP. The external rebalancing is difficult as the degrees of freedom of the Portuguese authorities are limited in number: they have no autonomous monetary policy, no currency to devaluate, and little discretion in fiscal policy as deficit limits and debt targets are set by the Stability Growth Pact and the postcrisis consensus on medium-term fiscal consolidation. One possibility that remains is to change the fiscal policy mix for a given budget deficit. The purpose of this paper is to explore the effects of a “fiscal devaluation”1 obtained through a tax swap between employers’ social security contributions and taxes on consumption2. The paper begins by illustrating Portugal’s current account evolution during the euro period. The second section section lays out a model to offer a qualitative assessment of the dynamic outcomes of the the tax swap. I show that the suggested tax swap can in theory achieve the desired outcomes in terms of competitiveness and consumption if complemented with moderation (stickiness) in wages. I also study the effects of a temporary version of the tax swap and show that it achieves a sharper improvement in the current account that accelerate the rebalancing. The third section moves to the empirical analysis and estimates the likely effects of the tax swap for the Portuguese economy. The fourth section concludes.

Government bond yield spreads in EMU countries: The story of an ephemeral convergence

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Electoral opportunism and fiscal policy before and after the EMU

A Masters Thesis, presented as part of the requirements for the award of a Research Masters Degree in Economics from NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Essay on secular stagnation

In this paper we show that a closed economy, with a balanced budget and unable to increase public spending, can avoid or leave a persistent slump through adequate and timely combination of monetary and fiscal policy based on distortionary taxation. We use a three generations OLG New Keynesian model in which a permanent slump is possible without any self-correcting force to full-employment. Complementing recent work on Secular Stagnation using lump-sum taxation and government spending as fiscal instruments, our contribution is to use distortionary taxes over labor, consumption and capital, in a balanced budget environment with constant (or decreasing) government spending.