Vulnerability of mediterranean watersheds to climate change

Desertification is a critical issue for Mediterranean drylands. Climate change is expected to aggravate its extension and severity by reinforcing the biophysical driving forces behind desertification processes: hydrology, vegetation cover and soil erosion. The main objective of this thesis is to assess the vulnerability of Mediterranean watersheds to climate change, by estimating impacts on desertification drivers and the watersheds’ resilience to them. To achieve this objective, a modeling framework capable of analyzing the processes linking climate and the main drivers is developed. The framework couples different models adapted to different spatial and temporal scales. A new model for the event scale is developed, the MEFIDIS model, with a focus on the particular processes governing Mediterranean watersheds. Model results are compared with desertification thresholds to estimate resilience. This methodology is applied to two contrasting study areas: the Guadiana and the Tejo, which currently present a semi-arid and humid climate. The main conclusions taken from this work can be summarized as follows: • hydrological processes show a high sensitivity to climate change, leading to a significant decrease in runoff and an increase in temporal variability; • vegetation processes appear to be less sensitive, with negative impacts for agricultural species and forests, and positive impacts for Mediterranean species; • changes to soil erosion processes appear to depend on the balance between changes to surface runoff and vegetation cover, itself governed by relationship between changes to temperature and rainfall; • as the magnitude of changes to climate increases, desertification thresholds are surpassed in a sequential way, starting with the watersheds’ ability to sustain current water demands and followed by the vegetation support capacity; • the most important thresholds appear to be a temperature increase of +3.5 to +4.5 ºC and a rainfall decrease of -10 to -20 %; • rainfall changes beyond this threshold could lead to severe water stress occurring even if current water uses are moderated, with droughts occurring in 1 out of 4 years; • temperature changes beyond this threshold could lead to a decrease in agricultural yield accompanied by an increase in soil erosion for croplands; • combined changes of temperature and rainfall beyond the thresholds could shift both systems towards a more arid state, leading to severe water stresses and significant changes to the support capacity for current agriculture and natural vegetation in both study areas.

Integrated approach to assess vulnerability of the Coastal Region of Bangladesh due to climate change

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

Monitoring and modelling of membrane bioreactors for wastewater treatment incorporating 2D fluorescence spectroscopy

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Engenharia Química e Bioquímica, Especialidade em Engenharia Bioquímica

Groundwater quality, vulnerability and potential assessment in Kobo Valley development project, Ethiopia

This study deals with investigating the groundwater quality for irrigation purpose, the vulnerability of the aquifer system to pollution and also the aquifer potential for sustainable water resources development in Kobo Valley development project. The groundwater quality is evaluated up on predicting the best possible distribution of hydrogeochemicals using geostatistical method and comparing them with the water quality guidelines given for the purpose of irrigation. The hydro geochemical parameters considered are SAR, EC, TDS, Cl-, Na+, Ca++, SO4 2- and HCO3 -. The spatial variability map reveals that these parameters falls under safe, moderate and severe or increasing problems. In order to present it clearly, the aggregated Water Quality Index (WQI) map is constructed using Weighted Arithmetic Mean method. It is found that Kobo-Gerbi sub basin is suffered from bad water quality for the irrigation purpose. Waja Golesha sub-basin has moderate and Hormat Golena is the better sub basin in terms of water quality. The groundwater vulnerability assessment of the study area is made using the GOD rating system. It is found that the whole area is experiencing moderate to high risk of vulnerability and it is a good warning for proper management of the resource. The high risks of vulnerability are noticed in Hormat Golena and Waja Golesha sub basins. The aquifer potential of the study area is obtained using weighted overlay analysis and 73.3% of the total area is a good site for future water well development. The rest 26.7% of the area is not considered as a good site for spotting groundwater wells. Most of this area fall under Kobo-Gerbi sub basin.

(Non) - Demand driven servitization: strategic implications for suppliers from incorporating their customers up front

Double Degree. A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Master’s Degree in Management from NOVA – School of Business and Economics and a Masters Degree in International Business, Strategy and Innovation from Maastricht University

Castor fiber na gruta do Caldeirão. Existência, distribuição e extinção do castor em Portugal

Beaver only had been found in Portugal in a Chalcolithic locality, the Vila Nova de S. Pedro castrum. It has now been identified in the Upper Paleolithic (Solutrean) from Gruta do Caldeirão, near Tomar. The species has been found recently at «Gruta do Almonda»; 4 teeth were collected in bed C, older than a Solutrean sequence (see Anexo for details). The species seems to have been rare, as it was also the case with portuguese Miocene Castoridae Enroxenomys minutus and Chalicomys jaegeri. If account is taken of the presence in the Middle Ages until Castille of words meaning beaver (relared to the popular latin Fiber/Biber), it is obvious that these animais still existed then. Such nouns were largely predominant over rhe rather erudite latin (greek deríved) words as Castor,-óris and derived ones, as it could be expected. This allowed us to recognize that veiro should be the corresponding word with Fiber affinities in archaic portuguese. It was previously supposed to mean only expensive furs then imported into Portugal. Indeed it was also a zoonym. Anywày, beaver should be scarce by XIIIth century since it is not included in the quite detailed price list imposed by the «Lei da Almotaçaria» from December 26, 1253 (see Quadro II). Toponyms in veiro and derived words (fig. 2; Quadro III) (plural, feminines, diminutives, inhabited places) give a resrrictive view of rhe Middle Age distribution. Some of them are certainly older than Portugal itself (firsr half of XIlth cenrury); others existed by the XIVth century bur were probably older. Some rare toponyms seem to be derived from the erudite latin Castor,-óris. Nothing suggests that these words were still in use as zoonyms during the Middle Ages. All toponyms are located in regions near rivers and other freshwaters ecologically suitable for beavers, so we can approximately retrace its former, Middle Age disrribution in Portugal (fig. 2; Quadro III). Most of them are locared in the Center-West and Northwest of Portugal, with a suitable c1imate (rainfall in general over 800 mílimerers per year); the only sure geographical exception is Veiros, in Alto Alentejo province, in a region with comparable precipitations and less dry climate conditions than mosr of the territories South of rhe Tagus. There are less and less of these toponyms towards rhe South and the inner part of the country, and they are enrirely lacking in all drier regions from Trás-os-Montes, Beira, Alentejo beyond Tagus' basin, and in Algarve. Nothing suggests beavers lived there, No post-medieval toponym is known, nor any reference after middle XVth century. No such locality was at, or close by to, any frontier. Hence the hypothesis of veiro (et al.} as meaning but points where expensive furs (supposedly known as veiros in general but without c1early saying from what animal they were obrained from) is to be discarded. During the Middle Ages, beaver discriburion concerned all the main river basins from Minho to Tagus ones. Quite rarefied in rhe XIIIth, the beavers may have disappeared from Portugal during the XVth century. Ecological requiremenrs restricted their former distriburion. Vulnerability to natural causes (i.e., severe drought) and to human pressure may have accounted heavily for this species' extinction. Last (1446) reference for Portugal known to us suggests the species was by then almost extinct.

On international cost-sharing of pharmaceutical R&D

Ramsey pricing has been proposed in the pharmaceutical industry as a principle to price discriminate among markets while allowing to recover the (fixed) R&D cost. However, such analyses neglect the presence of insurance or the fund raising costs for most of drug reimbursement. By incorporating these new elements, we aim at providing some building blocks towards an economic theory incorporating Ramsey pricing and insurance coverage. We show how coinsurance affects the optimal prices to pay for the R&D investment. We also show that under certain conditions, there is no strategic incentive by governments to set coinsurance rates in order to shift the financial burden of R&D. This will have important implications to the application of Ramsey pricing principles to pharmaceutical products across countries.

Desenvolvimento de uma metodologia de avaliação de riscos ambientais para apoiar a elaboração de planos de emergência

Dissertação apresentada como requisito parcial para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Ciência e Sistemas de Informação Geográfica

Integrated ecological-economic modelling and assessment aproach for coastal ecosystem management

Thesis submitted to the Faculty of Sciences and Technology, New University of Lisbon, for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Environmental Sciences

Membrane design and characterisation by incorporation of ionic liquids

Dissertação apresentada para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Engenharia Química, especialidade de Operações Unitárias e Fenómenos de Transferência, pela Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia

Preventing human trafficking for the purpose of sexual exploitation: the need for a bottom-up approach : the case-study of Brazilians trafficked to Portugal

Masters Thesis – Academic Year 2007/2008 - European Master’s Degree in Human Rights and Democratization (E.MA) - European Inter-university Centre for Human Rights and Democratization (EIUC) -Faculdade de Direito, Universidade Nova de Lisboa (UNL)

Castor fiber na gruta do Caldeirão Existência, distribuição e extinção do castor em Portugal

Beaver only had been found in Portugal in a Chalcolithic locality, the Vila Nova de S. Pedro castrum. It has now been idenrified in the Upper Paleolithic (Solurrean) from Gruta do Caldeirão, near Tomar. The species has been found recently at «Gruta do Almonda»; 4 teeth were collected in bed C, older than a Solutrean sequence (see Anexo for details). The species seems to have been rare, as it was also the case with portuguese miocene Castoridae Enroxenomys minutus and Chalicomys jaegeri. If account is taken of the presence in the Middle Ages until Castille of words meaning beaver (related to the popular latin Fiber/Biber), it is obvious that these animals still existed then. Such nouns were largely predominant over the rather erudite larin (greek derived) words as Castor, -óris and derived ones, as it could be expected. This allowed us to recognize that veiro should be the corresponding word with Fiber affinities in archaic portuguese. It was previously supposed to mean only expensive furs then imported into Portugal. Indeed it was also a zoonym. Anyway, beaver should be scarce by XIIIth century since it is not included in the quite detailed price list imposed by the «Lei da Almotaçaria» from December 26, 1253 (see Quadro II). Toponyms in veiro and derived words (fig. 2; Quadro III) (plural, feminines, diminutives, inhabited places) give a restrictive view of the Middle Age distribution. Some of them are certainly older than Portugal itself (first half of XIIth century); others existed by the XIVth century but were probably older. Some rare toponyms seem to be derived from rhe erudite latin Castor, -óris. Nothing suggests that these words were still in use as zoonyms during the Middle Ages. All toponyms are located in regions near rivers and other freshwaters ecologically suitable for beavers, so wecan approximately retrace irs former, Middle Age distribution in Portugal (fig. 2; Quadro III). Most of them are located in the Center-West and Northwest of Portugal, with a suitable c1imate (rainfall in general over 800 milimeters per year); the only sure geographical exception is Veiros, in Alto Alentejo province, in a region with comparable precipitations and less dry climare conditions than most of the territories South of the Tagus. There are less and less of these toponyms towards the South and the inner part of the country, and they are enrirely lacking in ali drier regions from Trás-os-Montes, Beira, Alentejo beyond Tagus' basin, and in Algarve. Nothing suggests beavers lived there, No pose-medieval toponym is known, nor any reference after middle XVth century. No such locality was at, or close by to, any frontier. Hence the hypothesis of veiro (e: al.) as meaning but points where expensive furs(supposedly known as veiros in general but without clearly saying from what animal they were obtained from) is to be discarded. During the Middle Ages, beaver distribution concerned all the main river basins from Minho to Tagus ones. Quice racefied in the XIIIth, the beavers may have disappeared from Portugal during the XVth century. Ecological requirements restricted their former distribution. Vulnerability to natural causes (i.e., severe drought) and to human pressure may have accounted heavily for this species extinction. Last (1446) reference for Portugal known to us suggests the species was by then almost extinct.

Climas de Mudança: Vulnerabilidade Humana às Alterações Climáticas no Concelho de Sintra

Dissertação apresentada para cumprimento dos requisitos necessários à obtenção do grau de Mestre em ECOLOGIA HUMANA e Problemas Sociais Contemporâneos.

Saúde mental, qualidade de vida e acesso aos cuidados de saúde na comunidade brasileira de Lisboa

Introdução: A utilização de serviços de saúde tem implicações importantes para o estado de saúde das populações. As políticas de imigração adoptadas nos países de destino têm influência no estado de saúde das comunidades imigrantes. Políticas que limitam o acesso de imigrantes aos cuidados de saúde aumentarão a vulnerabilidade e os riscos na saúde. Apesar da imigração promover uma série de rupturas na vida do sujeito, migrar, por si só, não pode ser considerado como factor de risco no âmbito da saúde e da saúde mental. O peso dos determinantes socioeconómicos tem ganho relevância no estudo das migrações, estado de saúde geral e mental. Isto porque, em geral, os imigrantes estão em situação mais precária do que a população autóctone. O estatuto socioeconómico baixo, as condições precárias de habitação e de trabalho, a falta de suporte social e a irregularidade jurídica são indicadores de risco acrescido para a saúde mental. Neste sentido é um desafio de monta os governos estabelecerem medidas sustentadas e, simultaneamente, integradoras dos imigrantes. Em Portugal, considera-se que há escassez de estudos relacionados com a área das migrações e da saúde.Metodologia: Estudo exploratório, descritivo e transversal. A finalidade foi a de identificar o estado de saúde, saúde mental e qualidade de vida da comunidade brasileira residente em Lisboa e o seu acesso aos serviços de saúde. Este estudo teve como principais objectivos a caracterização sociodemográfica, a identificação de variáveis inerentes ao processo migratório, a identificação da auto-apreciação do estado de saúde, a caracterização do acesso aos cuidados de saúde, a identificação do grupo em provável sofrimento psicológico, a comparação entre os resultados dos imigrantes juridicamente regulares e irregulares e a comparação entre a população imigrante e a população portuguesa. Inicialmente, foi prevista a utilização da técnica de amostragem de propagação geométrica ou snowball, pois a amostra tornar-se-ia maior à medida que os próprios inquiridos identificam outros potenciais respondentes. Ao longo do estudo, a metodologia inicial mostrou-se insuficiente para estabelecer uma amostra mais representativa dos imigrantes juridicamente irregulares. Para este feito, foi utilizada a metodologia de amostragem por conveniência e o local escolhido para a recolha da amostra foi o Consulado do Brasil em Lisboa. O instrumento de recolha de dados empregue baseou-se no questionário utilizado no 4º Inquérito Nacional de Saúde. O MHI-5 (Mental Health Index 5) é um instrumento de saúde mental e é parte integrante do inquérito, sendo recomendado pela Organização Mundial de Saúde. Consta de cinco itens relativos à saúde mental e os resultados são classificados através de um indicador que mede a existência de provável sofrimento psicológico. Foram incluídos no estudo 213 brasileiros. De seguida, procedeu-se ao tratamento estatístico dos dados. Resultados: A população inquirida é jovem, a maior parte tem entre 18 e 44 anos. As mulheres representam mais de metade da amostra. A taxa de actividade é elevada e a taxa de desemprego é similar à nacional. A inserção laboral prioritária é nos segmentos pouco qualificados ou de semi-qualificação. Aproximadamente um terço dos inquiridos afirmou ser beneficiário do Sistema Nacional de Saúde. A autoapreciação do estado de saúde é classificada como bastante positiva, assim como a qualidade de vida. O provável sofrimento psicológico, definido no MHI-5 pelo ponto de corte no score 52, atinge 23,3% dos participantes. Os homens apresentam melhores resultados do que as mulheres. Além disso, para os valores mais baixos no MHI-5 foram encontradas relações com as longas jornadas de trabalho e o diagnóstico de doença crónica.Discussão: O presente estudo apresenta limitações em relação à dimensão da amostra e à provável existência de enviesamento pela ausência de aleatorização. Apesar da legislação portuguesa garantir o acesso aos serviços de saúde e garantir a equidade no caso dos imigrantes que fazem descontos para a Segurança Social, apenas um terço referiu ser beneficiário do Sistema Nacional de Saúde. Este dado pode ser justificado por factores como o cumprimento da lei por alguns serviços e, também, pela falta de conhecimento da legislação e da forma de funcionamento do Serviço Nacional de Saúde por parte dos imigrantes. O facto das mulheres representarem o maior grupo em provável sofrimento psicológico é consistente com a literatura. As hipóteses levantadas para explicar este resultado podem ser agrupadas em: artefactos metodológicos, causalidade biológica e determinação social. Em relação ao instrumento, é possível que o MHI-5 se comporte de forma diferente no que diz respeito ao género.-------------------------------------------Introduction: The utilization of health services has important implications for the health state of the populations. The immigration policies adopted in the destiny countries are going to influence the health state of immigrant communities. Policies that limit the access of immigrants to health care are going to increase the vulnerability and the risk factor in health. Although immigration promotes several disruptive actions in ones life, migrating, on its own, cannot be considered as a risk factor for health and mental health. The preponderance of the socioeconomic factors has gained relevance in the study of migrations and also in the study of general health state and mental health. This happens because, in general, immigrants are in a more unfavorable situation compared with the destiny country population. The low socioeconomic status, the poor working and housing conditions, the lack of social support and the juridical irregularity are indicators of the incremented risk to mental health. Therefore, it is a major challenge for governments to find sustainable, and simultaneously, integrative measures for the immigrants. The studies related with the migrations and health in Portugal were considered to be few.Methods: It is an exploratory, descriptive and transversal study. The purpose is to identify the health state, mental health, quality of life and the access to health care of the Brazilian community resident in Lisbon. In addition, this study has as main goals the sociodemographic characterization, the variables identification inherent to the migrating process, the identification of the self-appreciation of health state, the characterization of the access to health care, the identification of the group in probable psychological suffer, the comparison between the results of regular and irregular immigrants and the comparison between the immigrant population and the Portuguese population. Initially it was predicted the utilization of the geometric propagation or “snowball”, as sampling technique, because the sample becomes larger as one answerer identify other potential answering persons. Along with the study, the methodology has shown insufficient to establish a more representative sample of the irregular immigrants. For this latter case, it was used a convenient sample methodology and the place chosen for the sample gathering was the “Consulate of Brazil in Lisbon”. The instrument was based in the questionnaire used in the “4th National Health Inquiry”. The MHI-5 (Mental Health Index 5) is a mental health instrument which is part of the enquiry and it is recommended by the World Health Organization. There are five items related to mental health and the results are classified through an indicator which measures the existence of a probable psychological suffer. It were included 213 Brazilian in the study. After, the statistical treatment of the data took place.Results: The answering population is young and the majority is between the 18 and 44 years of age. The women represent more than one half of the sample. The activity rate is high and the unemployment rate is similar to the national one. The priority labor insertion is in the few qualified or of semi-qualification segments. Approximately, one third of the answering people has stated to be beneficiary of the National Health System. The self-appreciation of the health state as well as the quality of life are classified as fairly positive ones. The probable psychological suffer, as defined in the MHI-5 through the cut point in the score below or equal to 52, reaches 23,3% of the sample population. Men show the better results than women. Further, for the lower values of MHI-5 it was found a relation with the long work periods and chronic disease diagnostic. Discussion: The present study evidences limitations in relation to the sample dimension and in relation to the existence of biases due to the lack of randomness. Although the Portuguese legislation guarantees the access to health services and the equality in the cases of the immigrants that do their Social Security discounts, only one third has mentioned to be beneficiary of the National Health System. This can be justified by several facts such as the non-fulfillment of law by some national services or the lack of knowledge of the legislation or the functioning process of the National Health System. Women representing the bigger group in probable psychological suffer has been coherent with the literature review. The hypothesis set to explain this result might be grouped in: methodological artifacts, biologic cause and social determination. In relation to the instrument used, it may be that MHI-5 behaves in a different way in respect to gender.

Efeito da exposição às temperaturas extremas na população portuguesa - um contributo da epidemiologia

Backgroud: O International Panel on Climate Change prevê que o aumento da temperatura média global, até ao ano de 2100, varie entre 1,4 e 5,8ºC desconhecendo-se a evolução da adaptação da população a esta subida da temperatura. Em Portugal morre-se mais no Inverno que no Verão. Mas existem evidências de repercussões na mortalidade atribuíveis ao calor extremo. Este estudo procura conhecer os grupos etários e/ou populacionais que parecem revelar vulnerabilidade acrescida à exposição a temperaturas extremas e identificar indicadores de saúde apropriados para revelar esses mesmos efeitos. Métodos: Foram analisados dados de internamentos hospitalar e mortalidade por doenças cardiovasculares, respiratórias, renais, efeitos directos do frio e do calor, na população com 75 e mais anos de idade, nos distritos de Beja, Bragança e Faro, nos meses de Janeiro e Junho. Para os dados de morbilidade o período de análise foi 2002 a 2005 e para os de mortalidade de 2002 a 2004. Os dados meteorológicos analisados corresponderam aos valores da temperatura máxima e percentis da temperatura máxima, nos meses de Janeiro (P10) e Junho (P90). Os excessos de internamentos hospitalares, definidos como os dias em que ocorreram internamentos acima do valor da média mais 2 desvio padrão, foram relacionados com a distribuição das temperaturas extremas (frias abaixo do P10, quentes acima do P90.Os dias com óbitos acima do valor da média foram relacionados com a distribuição das temperaturas extremas (frias abaixo do P10, quentes acima do P90). Os indicadores propostos foram baseados em Odds Ratios e intervalos de confiança que sugeriam as estimativas mais precisas. Resultados: O grupo que revelou maior vulnerabilidade às temperaturas extremas foi o grupo dos 75 e mais anos, com doenças cardiovasculares quando exposto a temperaturas extremas, nos 3 distritos observados.O nº de dias de excesso de óbitos por doenças cardiovasculares relacionados com temperaturas extremas foi o mais elevado comparado com as restantes causas de morte. O grupo etário dos 75 e mais anos com de doenças respiratórias também é vulnerável, às temperaturas extremas frias, nos 3 distritos. Verificaram-se dias de excessos de internamentos hospitalares e óbitos por esta causa de morte, relacionados com a exposição às temperaturas extremas frias. Em Junho, não se verificou excesso de mortalidade associado à exposição a temperaturas extremas por esta causa, em qualquer dos distritos analisados. Apenas se verificou a associação entre os dias de ocorrência de internamentos hospitalares por doenças renais e o calor extremo, em Bragança. Conclusões: Foram encontradas associações estatísticas significativas entre dias de excesso de ocorrência de internamentos hospitalares ou óbitos por causa e exposição a temperaturas extremas frias e quentes possibilitando a identificação de um conjunto de indicadores de saúde ambiental apropriados para monitorizar a evolução dos padrões de morbilidade, mortalidade e susceptibilidade das populações ao longo do tempo.-------------------- Backgroud: International Panel on Climate Change estimates that the rise of mean global temperature varies between 1,4 e 5,8ºC until 2100, with unknowing evolution adaptation of populations. In Portugal we die more in Winter than in Summer time. But there are several evidences of mortality attributable to extreme eat. The proposal of this study is to know the age and/or populations groups that reveal more vulnerability to exposure to extreme temperature and identifying proper health indicators to reveal those effects. Methods: Data from hospital admissions and mortality caused by cardiovascular, respiratory, renal diseases and direct effects from direct exposure to extreme cold and heat, in population with 75 and more years, in Beja, Bragança and Faro districts, during January and June, were analysed. Analysis period for morbidity data was from 2002 to 2005 and form mortality was 2002 to 2004. Meteorological data analysed were maximum temperature and percentile of maximum temperature, from January (P10) and June (P90. Relationship between excess of hospital admission, defined as the days that occurred hospital admissions above mean value more 2 standards desviation and distribution of extreme temperatures were established (cold under P10 and heat above P90. Proposal indicators were based on Odds Ratios and confidence intervals, suggesting the most precises estimatives. Results: The most vulnerable group to extreme temperature were people with 75 or more years older with cardiovascular diseases, observed in the 3 districts. Number of days caused by excess cardiovascular mortality and extreme temperature were the most number of days between the other causes. The group with 75 or more years old with respiratory diseases is vulnerable too, especially to cold extreme temperature, in all the 3 districts. There were excess of days of hospital admissions and days with deaths, for this cause relating to extreme cold temperature. In June, does not funded excess of mortality associated to extreme temperature by this cause in any district of the in observation. Just was found relationship between days of hospital admissions caused by renal diseases in Bragança in days with extreme heat. Conclusions: Were found statistically significant associations between days of excess of hospital admissions or deaths and exposure to extreme cold and heat temperatures giving the possibility of identifying a core of environmental indicators proper to monitoring patterns and trends evolutions on morbidity, mortality and susceptibly of populations for a long time.