28 resultados para Hydrological model
Watershed-scale runoff routing and solute transport in a spatially aggregated hydrological framework
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Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies
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Tese de doutoramento em Ciências da Educação
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Desertification is a critical issue for Mediterranean drylands. Climate change is expected to aggravate its extension and severity by reinforcing the biophysical driving forces behind desertification processes: hydrology, vegetation cover and soil erosion. The main objective of this thesis is to assess the vulnerability of Mediterranean watersheds to climate change, by estimating impacts on desertification drivers and the watersheds’ resilience to them. To achieve this objective, a modeling framework capable of analyzing the processes linking climate and the main drivers is developed. The framework couples different models adapted to different spatial and temporal scales. A new model for the event scale is developed, the MEFIDIS model, with a focus on the particular processes governing Mediterranean watersheds. Model results are compared with desertification thresholds to estimate resilience. This methodology is applied to two contrasting study areas: the Guadiana and the Tejo, which currently present a semi-arid and humid climate. The main conclusions taken from this work can be summarized as follows: • hydrological processes show a high sensitivity to climate change, leading to a significant decrease in runoff and an increase in temporal variability; • vegetation processes appear to be less sensitive, with negative impacts for agricultural species and forests, and positive impacts for Mediterranean species; • changes to soil erosion processes appear to depend on the balance between changes to surface runoff and vegetation cover, itself governed by relationship between changes to temperature and rainfall; • as the magnitude of changes to climate increases, desertification thresholds are surpassed in a sequential way, starting with the watersheds’ ability to sustain current water demands and followed by the vegetation support capacity; • the most important thresholds appear to be a temperature increase of +3.5 to +4.5 ºC and a rainfall decrease of -10 to -20 %; • rainfall changes beyond this threshold could lead to severe water stress occurring even if current water uses are moderated, with droughts occurring in 1 out of 4 years; • temperature changes beyond this threshold could lead to a decrease in agricultural yield accompanied by an increase in soil erosion for croplands; • combined changes of temperature and rainfall beyond the thresholds could shift both systems towards a more arid state, leading to severe water stresses and significant changes to the support capacity for current agriculture and natural vegetation in both study areas.
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FEBS Letters 579 (2005) 4585–4590
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In this thesis we implement estimating procedures in order to estimate threshold parameters for the continuous time threshold models driven by stochastic di®erential equations. The ¯rst procedure is based on the EM (expectation-maximization) algorithm applied to the threshold model built from the Brownian motion with drift process. The second procedure mimics one of the fundamental ideas in the estimation of the thresholds in time series context, that is, conditional least squares estimation. We implement this procedure not only for the threshold model built from the Brownian motion with drift process but also for more generic models as the ones built from the geometric Brownian motion or the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. Both procedures are implemented for simu- lated data and the least squares estimation procedure is also implemented for real data of daily prices from a set of international funds. The ¯rst fund is the PF-European Sus- tainable Equities-R fund from the Pictet Funds company and the second is the Parvest Europe Dynamic Growth fund from the BNP Paribas company. The data for both funds are daily prices from the year 2004. The last fund to be considered is the Converging Europe Bond fund from the Schroder company and the data are daily prices from the year 2005.
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Dissertation submitted to the Faculty of Sciences and Technology of New University of Lisbon for obtaining the degree of Master in Environmental Management Systems
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Dissertação apresentada na Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Informática
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Dissertation submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies
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Dissertação apresentada na Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova da Lisboa para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia e Gestão Industrial (MEGI)
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Revista Portuguesa de Pneumologia. VIII(3): 223-235.
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Dissertação apresentada como requisito parcial para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Ciência e Sistemas de Informação Geográfica
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MSc. Dissertation presented at Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia of Universidade Nova de Lisboa to obtain the Master degree in Electrical and Computer Engineering
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33rd IAHR Congress: Water Engineering for a Sustainable Environment
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Dissertação apresentada para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Engenharia Electrotécnica, Especialidade de Sistemas Digitais, pela Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia
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Critical Issues in Environmental Taxation: International and Comparative Perspectives: Volume VI, 699-715