Scenarios Generation for Multi-Agent simulation of Electricity Markets based on Intelligent Data Analysis

This document presents a tool able to automatically gather data provided by real energy markets and to generate scenarios, capture and improve market players’ profiles and strategies by using knowledge discovery processes in databases supported by artificial intelligence techniques, data mining algorithms and machine learning methods. It provides the means for generating scenarios with different dimensions and characteristics, ensuring the representation of real and adapted markets, and their participating entities. The scenarios generator module enhances the MASCEM (Multi-Agent Simulator of Competitive Electricity Markets) simulator, endowing a more effective tool for decision support. The achievements from the implementation of the proposed module enables researchers and electricity markets’ participating entities to analyze data, create real scenarios and make experiments with them. On the other hand, applying knowledge discovery techniques to real data also allows the improvement of MASCEM agents’ profiles and strategies resulting in a better representation of real market players’ behavior. This work aims to improve the comprehension of electricity markets and the interactions among the involved entities through adequate multi-agent simulation.

Data Mining Approach to support the Generation of Realistic Scenarios for Multi-Agent simulation of Electricity Markets

This paper presents the Realistic Scenarios Generator (RealScen), a tool that processes data from real electricity markets to generate realistic scenarios that enable the modeling of electricity market players’ characteristics and strategic behavior. The proposed tool provides significant advantages to the decision making process in an electricity market environment, especially when coupled with a multi-agent electricity markets simulator. The generation of realistic scenarios is performed using mechanisms for intelligent data analysis, which are based on artificial intelligence and data mining algorithms. These techniques allow the study of realistic scenarios, adapted to the existing markets, and improve the representation of market entities as software agents, enabling a detailed modeling of their profiles and strategies. This work contributes significantly to the understanding of the interactions between the entities acting in electricity markets by increasing the capability and realism of market simulations.

Data mining techniques contributions to support electrical vehicle demand response

The introduction of Electric Vehicles (EVs) together with the implementation of smart grids will raise new challenges to power system operators. This paper proposes a demand response program for electric vehicle users which provides the network operator with another useful resource that consists in reducing vehicles charging necessities. This demand response program enables vehicle users to get some profit by agreeing to reduce their travel necessities and minimum battery level requirements on a given period. To support network operator actions, the amount of demand response usage can be estimated using data mining techniques applied to a database containing a large set of operation scenarios. The paper includes a case study based on simulated operation scenarios that consider different operation conditions, e.g. available renewable generation, and considering a diversity of distributed resources and electric vehicles with vehicle-to-grid capacity and demand response capacity in a 33 bus distribution network.

Distributed generation producers' reserve management

Sustainable development concerns are being addressed with increasing attention, in general, and in the scope of power industry, in particular. The use of distributed generation (DG), mainly based on renewable sources, has been seen as an interesting approach to this problem. However, the increasing of DG in power systems raises some complex technical and economic issues. This paper presents ViProd, a simulation tool that allows modeling and simulating DG operation and participation in electricity markets. This paper mainly focuses on the operation of Virtual Power Producers (VPP) which are producers’ aggregations, being these producers mainly of DG type. The paper presents several reserve management strategies implemented in the scope of ViProd and the results of a case study, based on real data.

Using data mining techniques to support DR programs definition in smart grids

In recent years, Power Systems (PS) have experimented many changes in their operation. The introduction of new players managing Distributed Generation (DG) units, and the existence of new Demand Response (DR) programs make the control of the system a more complex problem and allow a more flexible management. An intelligent resource management in the context of smart grids is of huge important so that smart grids functions are assured. This paper proposes a new methodology to support system operators and/or Virtual Power Players (VPPs) to determine effective and efficient DR programs that can be put into practice. This method is based on the use of data mining techniques applied to a database which is obtained for a large set of operation scenarios. The paper includes a case study based on 27,000 scenarios considering a diversity of distributed resources in a 32 bus distribution network.

A data-mining based methodology for wind forecasting

In many countries the use of renewable energy is increasing due to the introduction of new energy and environmental policies. Thus, the focus on the efficient integration of renewable energy into electric power systems is becoming extremely important. Several European countries have already achieved high penetration of wind based electricity generation and are gradually evolving towards intensive use of this generation technology. The introduction of wind based generation in power systems poses new challenges for the power system operators. This is mainly due to the variability and uncertainty in weather conditions and, consequently, in the wind based generation. In order to deal with this uncertainty and to improve the power system efficiency, adequate wind forecasting tools must be used. This paper proposes a data-mining-based methodology for very short-term wind forecasting, which is suitable to deal with large real databases. The paper includes a case study based on a real database regarding the last three years of wind speed, and results for wind speed forecasting at 5 minutes intervals.

A data-mining-based methodology for transmission expansion planning

In recent decades, all over the world, competition in the electric power sector has deeply changed the way this sector’s agents play their roles. In most countries, electric process deregulation was conducted in stages, beginning with the clients of higher voltage levels and with larger electricity consumption, and later extended to all electrical consumers. The sector liberalization and the operation of competitive electricity markets were expected to lower prices and improve quality of service, leading to greater consumer satisfaction. Transmission and distribution remain noncompetitive business areas, due to the large infrastructure investments required. However, the industry has yet to clearly establish the best business model for transmission in a competitive environment. After generation, the electricity needs to be delivered to the electrical system nodes where demand requires it, taking into consideration transmission constraints and electrical losses. If the amount of power flowing through a certain line is close to or surpasses the safety limits, then cheap but distant generation might have to be replaced by more expensive closer generation to reduce the exceeded power flows. In a congested area, the optimal price of electricity rises to the marginal cost of the local generation or to the level needed to ration demand to the amount of available electricity. Even without congestion, some power will be lost in the transmission system through heat dissipation, so prices reflect that it is more expensive to supply electricity at the far end of a heavily loaded line than close to an electric power generation. Locational marginal pricing (LMP), resulting from bidding competition, represents electrical and economical values at nodes or in areas that may provide economical indicator signals to the market agents. This article proposes a data-mining-based methodology that helps characterize zonal prices in real power transmission networks. To test our methodology, we used an LMP database from the California Independent System Operator for 2009 to identify economical zones. (CAISO is a nonprofit public benefit corporation charged with operating the majority of California’s high-voltage wholesale power grid.) To group the buses into typical classes that represent a set of buses with the approximate LMP value, we used two-step and k-means clustering algorithms. By analyzing the various LMP components, our goal was to extract knowledge to support the ISO in investment and network-expansion planning.

Previsão de vento baseado em técnicas de Data Mining

Mestrado em Engenharia Electrotécnica – Sistemas Eléctricos de Energia

Towards a unified European electricity market: The contribution of data-mining to support realistic simulation studies

Worldwide electricity markets have been evolving into regional and even continental scales. The aim at an efficient use of renewable based generation in places where it exceeds the local needs is one of the main reasons. A reference case of this evolution is the European Electricity Market, where countries are connected, and several regional markets were created, each one grouping several countries, and supporting transactions of huge amounts of electrical energy. The continuous transformations electricity markets have been experiencing over the years create the need to use simulation platforms to support operators, regulators, and involved players for understanding and dealing with this complex environment. This paper focuses on demonstrating the advantage that real electricity markets data has for the creation of realistic simulation scenarios, which allow the study of the impacts and implications that electricity markets transformations will bring to the participant countries. A case study using MASCEM (Multi-Agent System for Competitive Electricity Markets) is presented, with a scenario based on real data, simulating the European Electricity Market environment, and comparing its performance when using several different market mechanisms.

SNC / NCRF 24 – Acontecimentos após a data do balanço e suas implicações fiscais e de auditoria

Orientador Prof. Dr. João Domingues Costa

Geostatistical Mapping of Outfall Plume Dispersion Data gathered with an autonomous underwater vehicle

The main purpose of this study was to examine the applicability of geostatistical modeling to obtain valuable information for assessing the environmental impact of sewage outfall discharges. The data set used was obtained in a monitoring campaign to S. Jacinto outfall, located off the Portuguese west coast near Aveiro region, using an AUV. The Matheron’s classical estimator was used the compute the experimental semivariogram which was fitted to three theoretical models: spherical, exponential and gaussian. The cross-validation procedure suggested the best semivariogram model and ordinary kriging was used to obtain the predictions of salinity at unknown locations. The generated map shows clearly the plume dispersion in the studied area, indicating that the effluent does not reach the near by beaches. Our study suggests that an optimal design for the AUV sampling trajectory from a geostatistical prediction point of view, can help to compute more precise predictions and hence to quantify more accurately dilution. Moreover, since accurate measurements of plume’s dilution are rare, these studies might be very helpful in the future for validation of dispersion models.

An architecture for an effective usage of data mining in business intelligence systems

Business Intelligence (BI) is one emergent area of the Decision Support Systems (DSS) discipline. Over the last years, the evolution in this area has been considerable. Similarly, in the last years, there has been a huge growth and consolidation of the Data Mining (DM) field. DM is being used with success in BI systems, but a truly DM integration with BI is lacking. Therefore, a lack of an effective usage of DM in BI can be found in some BI systems. An architecture that pretends to conduct to an effective usage of DM in BI is presented.

Norma internacional de contabilidade [NIC 10 ]: acontecimento após a data de balanço

Revista Fiscal Maio 2006

Data mining contributions to characterize MV consumers and to improve the suppliers-consumers settlements

This paper deals with the establishment of a characterization methodology of electric power profiles of medium voltage (MV) consumers. The characterization is supported on the data base knowledge discovery process (KDD). Data Mining techniques are used with the purpose of obtaining typical load profiles of MV customers and specific knowledge of their customers’ consumption habits. In order to form the different customers’ classes and to find a set of representative consumption patterns, a hierarchical clustering algorithm and a clustering ensemble combination approach (WEACS) are used. Taking into account the typical consumption profile of the class to which the customers belong, new tariff options were defined and new energy coefficients prices were proposed. Finally, and with the results obtained, the consequences that these will have in the interaction between customer and electric power suppliers are analyzed.

Intelligent management of end consumers loads including electric vehicles through a SCADA system

The large penetration of intermittent resources, such as solar and wind generation, involves the use of storage systems in order to improve power system operation. Electric Vehicles (EVs) with gridable capability (V2G) can operate as a means for storing energy. This paper proposes an algorithm to be included in a SCADA (Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition) system, which performs an intelligent management of three types of consumers: domestic, commercial and industrial, that includes the joint management of loads and the charge/discharge of EVs batteries. The proposed methodology has been implemented in a SCADA system developed by the authors of this paper – the SCADA House Intelligent Management (SHIM). Any event in the system, such as a Demand Response (DR) event, triggers the use of an optimization algorithm that performs the optimal energy resources scheduling (including loads and EVs), taking into account the priorities of each load defined by the installation users. A case study considering a specific consumer with several loads and EVs is presented in this paper.