SmallPower, Energias Renováveis, Lda.: tradução e gestão de conteúdos

Relatório de estágio realizado por: Tiago André Nogueira da Cruz Trabalho orientado pela Mestre Célia Sousa

On the development of an automatic voice pleasantness classification and intensity estimation system

In the last few years, the number of systems and devices that use voice based interaction has grown significantly. For a continued use of these systems, the interface must be reliable and pleasant in order to provide an optimal user experience. However there are currently very few studies that try to evaluate how pleasant is a voice from a perceptual point of view when the final application is a speech based interface. In this paper we present an objective definition for voice pleasantness based on the composition of a representative feature subset and a new automatic voice pleasantness classification and intensity estimation system. Our study is based on a database composed by European Portuguese female voices but the methodology can be extended to male voices or to other languages. In the objective performance evaluation the system achieved a 9.1% error rate for voice pleasantness classification and a 15.7% error rate for voice pleasantness intensity estimation.

Osteoporotic hip fractures: Bisphosphonates sales and observed turning point in trend. A population-based retrospective study

The aim is to examine the temporal trends of hip fracture incidence in Portugal by sex and age groups, and explore the relation with anti-osteoporotic medication. From the National Hospital Discharge Database, we selected from 1st January 2000 to 31st December 2008, 77,083 hospital admissions (77.4% women) caused by osteoporotic hip fractures (low energy, patients over 49 years-age), with diagnosis codes 820.x of ICD 9-CM. The 2001 Portuguese population was used as standard to calculate direct age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) (100,000 inhabitants). Generalized additive and linear models were used to evaluate and quantify temporal trends of age specific rates (AR), by sex. We identified 2003 as a turning point in the trend of ASIR of hip fractures in women. After 2003, the ASIR in women decreased on average by 10.3 cases/100,000 inhabitants, 95% CI (− 15.7 to − 4.8), per 100,000 anti-osteoporotic medication packages sold. For women aged 65–69 and 75–79 we identified the same turning point. However, for women aged over 80, the year 2004 marked a change in the trend, from an increase to a decrease. Among the population aged 70–74 a linear decrease of incidence rate (95% CI) was observed in both sexes, higher for women: − 28.0% (− 36.2 to − 19.5) change vs − 18.8%, (− 32.6 to − 2.3). The abrupt turning point in the trend of ASIR of hip fractures in women is compatible with an intervention, such as a medication. The trends were different according to gender and age group, but compatible with the pattern of bisphosphonates sales.

Sulphonamide-imprinted sol–gel materials as ionophores in potentiometric transduction

This work proposes different kind of solid-contact graphite-based electrodes for the selective determination of sulphonamides (SPHs) in pharmaceuticals, biological fluids and aquaculture waters. Sulfadiazine (SDZ) and sulfamethoxazole (SMX) were selected for this purpose for being the most representative compounds of this group. The template molecules were imprinted in sol–gel (ISG) and the resulting material was used as detecting element. This was made by employing it as either a sensing layer or an ionophore of PVC-based membranes and subsequent potentiometric transduction, a strategy never reported before. The corresponding non-imprinted sol–gel (NISG) membranes were used as blank. The effect of plasticizer and kind/charge of ionic lipophilic additive was also studied. The best performance in terms of slope, linearity ranges and signal reproducibility and repeatability was achieved by PVC membranes including a high dielectric constant plasticizer and 15 mg of ISG particles. The corresponding average slope was −51.4 and −52.4 mV/decade, linear responses were 9.0 × 10−6 and 1.7 × 10−5 M, and limits of detection were 0.74 and 1.3 μg/mL for SDZ and for SMX, respectively. Good selectivity with log Kpot < −0.3 was observed for carbonate, chloride, fluoride, hydrogenocarbonate, nitrate, nitrite, phosphate, cyanide, sulfate, borate, persulphate, citrate, tartrate, salicylate, tetracycline, ciprofloxacin, sulphamerazine, sulphatiazole, dopamine, glucose, galactose, cysteine and creatinine. The best sensors were successfully applied to the analysis of real samples with relative errors ranging from −6.8 to + 3.7%.

Performance of state space and ARIMA models for consumer retail sales forecasting

Forecasting future sales is one of the most important issues that is beyond all strategic and planning decisions in effective operations of retail businesses. For profitable retail businesses, accurate demand forecasting is crucial in organizing and planning production, purchasing, transportation and labor force. Retail sales series belong to a special type of time series that typically contain trend and seasonal patterns, presenting challenges in developing effective forecasting models. This work compares the forecasting performance of state space models and ARIMA models. The forecasting performance is demonstrated through a case study of retail sales of five different categories of women footwear: Boots, Booties, Flats, Sandals and Shoes. On both methodologies the model with the minimum value of Akaike's Information Criteria for the in-sample period was selected from all admissible models for further evaluation in the out-of-sample. Both one-step and multiple-step forecasts were produced. The results show that when an automatic algorithm the overall out-of-sample forecasting performance of state space and ARIMA models evaluated via RMSE, MAE and MAPE is quite similar on both one-step and multi-step forecasts. We also conclude that state space and ARIMA produce coverage probabilities that are close to the nominal rates for both one-step and multi-step forecasts.