Long-term price range forecast applied to risk management using regression models

Long-term contractual decisions are the basis of an efficient risk management. However those types of decisions have to be supported with a robust price forecast methodology. This paper reports a different approach for long-term price forecast which tries to give answers to that need. Making use of regression models, the proposed methodology has as main objective to find the maximum and a minimum Market Clearing Price (MCP) for a specific programming period, and with a desired confidence level α. Due to the problem complexity, the meta-heuristic Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) was used to find the best regression parameters and the results compared with the obtained by using a Genetic Algorithm (GA). To validate these models, results from realistic data are presented and discussed in detail.

Post-surgical wound infections involving Enterobacteriaceae with reduced susceptibility to ß-lactams in two Portuguese hospitals

The post-surgical period is often critical for infection acquisition. The combination of patient injury and environmental exposure through breached skin add risk to pre-existing conditions such as drug or depressed immunity. Several factors such as the period of hospital staying after surgery, base disease, age, immune system condition, hygiene policies, careless prophylactic drug administration and physical conditions of the healthcare centre may contribute to the acquisition of a nosocomial infection. A purulent wound can become complicated whenever antimicrobial therapy becomes compromised. In this pilot study, we analysed Enterobacteriaceae strains, the most significant gram-negative rods that may occur in post-surgical skin and soft tissue infections (SSTI) presenting reduced β-lactam susceptibility and those presenting extended-spectrum β-lactamases (ESBL). There is little information in our country regarding the relationship between β-lactam susceptibility, ESBL and development of resistant strains of microorganisms in SSTI. Our main results indicate Escherichia coli and Klebsiella spp. are among the most frequent enterobacteria (46% and 30% respectively) with ESBL production in 72% of Enterobacteriaceae isolates from SSTI. Moreover, coinfection occurred extensively, mainly with Pseudomonas aeruginosa and Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (18% and 13%, respectively). These results suggest future research to explore if and how these associations are involved in the development of antibiotic resistance.

Reduced fluoresceinamine as a fluorescent sensor for nitric oxide

A new fluorescent sensor for nitric oxide (NO) is presented that is based on its reaction with a non fluorescent substance, reduced fluoresceinamine, producing the highly fluorescent fluoresceinamine. Using a portable homemade stabilized light source consisting of 450 nm LED and fiber optics to guide the light, the sensor responds linearly within seconds in the NO concentration range between about 10–750 µM with a limit of detection (LOD) of about 1 µM. The system generated precise intensity readings, with a relative standard deviation of less than 1%. The suitability of the sensor was assessed by monitoring the NO generated by either the nitrous acid decomposition reaction or from a NO-releasing compound. Using relatively high incubation times, the sensor also responds quantitatively to hydrogen peroxide and potassium superoxide, however, using transient signal measurements results in no interfering species.

Quantification of endocrine disruptors and pesticides in water by gas chromatography–tandem mass spectrometry. Method validation using weighted linear regression schemes

Amulti-residue methodology based on a solid phase extraction followed by gas chromatography–tandem mass spectrometry was developed for trace analysis of 32 compounds in water matrices, including estrogens and several pesticides from different chemical families, some of them with endocrine disrupting properties. Matrix standard calibration solutions were prepared by adding known amounts of the analytes to a residue-free sample to compensate matrix-induced chromatographic response enhancement observed for certain pesticides. Validation was done mainly according to the International Conference on Harmonisation recommendations, as well as some European and American validation guidelines with specifications for pesticides analysis and/or GC–MS methodology. As the assumption of homoscedasticity was not met for analytical data, weighted least squares linear regression procedure was applied as a simple and effective way to counteract the greater influence of the greater concentrations on the fitted regression line, improving accuracy at the lower end of the calibration curve. The method was considered validated for 31 compounds after consistent evaluation of the key analytical parameters: specificity, linearity, limit of detection and quantification, range, precision, accuracy, extraction efficiency, stability and robustness.

Self-similarity principle: the reduced description of randomness

A new general fitting method based on the Self-Similar (SS) organization of random sequences is presented. The proposed analytical function helps to fit the response of many complex systems when their recorded data form a self-similar curve. The verified SS principle opens new possibilities for the fitting of economical, meteorological and other complex data when the mathematical model is absent but the reduced description in terms of some universal set of the fitting parameters is necessary. This fitting function is verified on economical (price of a commodity versus time) and weather (the Earth’s mean temperature surface data versus time) and for these nontrivial cases it becomes possible to receive a very good fit of initial data set. The general conditions of application of this fitting method describing the response of many complex systems and the forecast possibilities are discussed.

Multiple Linear Regression and Artificial Neural Networks to Predict Time and Efficiency of Soil Vapor Extraction

The prediction of the time and the efficiency of the remediation of contaminated soils using soil vapor extraction remain a difficult challenge to the scientific community and consultants. This work reports the development of multiple linear regression and artificial neural network models to predict the remediation time and efficiency of soil vapor extractions performed in soils contaminated separately with benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, xylene, trichloroethylene, and perchloroethylene. The results demonstrated that the artificial neural network approach presents better performances when compared with multiple linear regression models. The artificial neural network model allowed an accurate prediction of remediation time and efficiency based on only soil and pollutants characteristics, and consequently allowing a simple and quick previous evaluation of the process viability.

Predicting Xerostomia induced by IMRT treatments: A logistic regression approach

Radiotherapy is one of the main treatments used against cancer. Radiotherapy uses radiation to destroy cancerous cells trying, at the same time, to minimize the damages in healthy tissues. The planning of a radiotherapy treatment is patient dependent, resulting in a lengthy trial and error procedure until a treatment complying as most as possible with the medical prescription is found. Intensity Modulated Radiation Therapy (IMRT) is one technique of radiation treatment that allows the achievement of a high degree of conformity between the area to be treated and the dose absorbed by healthy tissues. Nevertheless, it is still not possible to eliminate completely the potential treatments’ side-effects. In this retrospective study we use the clinical data from patients with head-and-neck cancer treated at the Portuguese Institute of Oncology of Coimbra and explore the possibility of classifying new and untreated patients according to the probability of xerostomia 12 months after the beginning of IMRT treatments by using a logistic regression approach. The results obtained show that the classifier presents a high discriminative ability in predicting the binary response “at risk for xerostomia at 12 months”

Electrospun Polyaniline-Reduced Graphene Oxide Composite Nanofibers Based High Sensitive Ammonia Gas Sensor

Ammonia is an important gas in many power plants and industrial processes so its detection is of extreme importance in environmental monitoring and process control due to its high toxicity. Ammonia’s threshold limit is 25 ppm and the exposure time limit is 8 h, however exposure to 35 ppm is only secure for 10 min. In this work a brief introduction to ammonia aspects are presented, like its physical and chemical properties, the dangers in its manipulation, its ways of production and its sources. The application areas in which ammonia gas detection is important and needed are also referred: environmental gas analysis (e.g. intense farming), automotive-, chemical- and medical industries. In order to monitor ammonia gas in these different areas there are some requirements that must be attended. These requirements determine the choice of sensor and, therefore, several types of sensors with different characteristics were developed, like metal oxides, surface acoustic wave-, catalytic-, and optical sensors, indirect gas analyzers, and conducting polymers. All the sensors types are described, but more attention will be given to polyaniline (PANI), particularly to its characteristics, syntheses, chemical doping processes, deposition methods, transduction modes, and its adhesion to inorganic materials. Besides this, short descriptions of PANI nanostructures, the use of electrospinning in the formation of nanofibers/microfibers, and graphene and its characteristics are included. The created sensor is an instrument that tries to achieve a goal of the medical community in the control of the breath’s ammonia levels being an easy and non-invasive method for diagnostic of kidney malfunction and/or gastric ulcers. For that the device should be capable to detect different levels of ammonia gas concentrations. So, in the present work an ammonia gas sensor was developed using a conductive polymer composite which was immobilized on a carbon transducer surface. The experiments were targeted to ammonia measurements at ppb level. Ammonia gas measurements were carried out in the concentration range from 1 ppb to 500 ppb. A commercial substrate was used; screen-printed carbon electrodes. After adequate surface pre-treatment of the substrate, its electrodes were covered by a nanofibrous polymeric composite. The conducting polyaniline doped with sulfuric acid (H2SO4) was blended with reduced graphene oxide (RGO) obtained by wet chemical synthesis. This composite formed the basis for the formation of nanofibers by electrospinning. Nanofibers will increase the sensitivity of the sensing material. The electrospun PANI-RGO fibers were placed on the substrate and then dried at ambient temperature. Amperometric measurements were performed at different ammonia gas concentrations (1 to 500 ppb). The I-V characteristics were registered and some interfering gases were studied (NO2, ethanol, and acetone). The gas samples were prepared in a custom setup and were diluted with dry nitrogen gas. Electrospun nanofibers of PANI-RGO composite demonstrated an enhancement in NH3 gas detection when comparing with only electrospun PANI nanofibers. Was visible higher range of resistance at concentrations from 1 to 500 ppb. It was also observed that the sensor had stable, reproducible and recoverable properties. Moreover, it had better response and recovery times. The new sensing material of the developed sensor demonstrated to be a good candidate for ammonia gas determination.

Using neural networks and support vector regression to relate marchetti dilatometer test parameters and maximum shear modulus

In the last two decades, small strain shear modulus became one of the most important geotechnical parameters to characterize soil stiffness. Finite element analysis have shown that in-situ stiffness of soils and rocks is much higher than what was previously thought and that stress-strain behaviour of these materials is non-linear in most cases with small strain levels, especially in the ground around retaining walls, foundations and tunnels, typically in the order of 10−2 to 10−4 of strain. Although the best approach to estimate shear modulus seems to be based in measuring seismic wave velocities, deriving the parameter through correlations with in-situ tests is usually considered very useful for design practice.The use of Neural Networks for modeling systems has been widespread, in particular within areas where the great amount of available data and the complexity of the systems keeps the problem very unfriendly to treat following traditional data analysis methodologies. In this work, the use of Neural Networks and Support Vector Regression is proposed to estimate small strain shear modulus for sedimentary soils from the basic or intermediate parameters derived from Marchetti Dilatometer Test. The results are discussed and compared with some of the most common available methodologies for this evaluation.

Using neural networks and support vector regression to relate marchetti dilatometer test parameters and maximum shear modulus

In the last two decades, small strain shear modulus became one of the most important geotechnical parameters to characterize soil stiffness. Finite element analysis have shown that in-situ stiffness of soils and rocks is much higher than what was previously thought and that stress-strain behaviour of these materials is non-linear in most cases with small strain levels, especially in the ground around retaining walls, foundations and tunnels, typically in the order of 10−2 to 10−4 of strain. Although the best approach to estimate shear modulus seems to be based in measuring seismic wave velocities, deriving the parameter through correlations with in-situ tests is usually considered very useful for design practice.The use of Neural Networks for modeling systems has been widespread, in particular within areas where the great amount of available data and the complexity of the systems keeps the problem very unfriendly to treat following traditional data analysis methodologies. In this work, the use of Neural Networks and Support Vector Regression is proposed to estimate small strain shear modulus for sedimentary soils from the basic or intermediate parameters derived from Marchetti Dilatometer Test. The results are discussed and compared with some of the most common available methodologies for this evaluation.

Analyzing Multiple Outcomes: Is it Really Worth the use of Multivariate Linear Regression?

In health related research it is common to have multiple outcomes of interest in a single study. These outcomes are often analysed separately, ignoring the correlation between them. One would expect that a multivariate approach would be a more efficient alternative to individual analyses of each outcome. Surprisingly, this is not always the case. In this article we discuss different settings of linear models and compare the multivariate and univariate approaches. We show that for linear regression models, the estimates of the regression parameters associated with covariates that are shared across the outcomes are the same for the multivariate and univariate models while for outcome-specific covariates the multivariate model performs better in terms of efficiency.