Performance of state space and ARIMA models for consumer retail sales forecasting

Forecasting future sales is one of the most important issues that is beyond all strategic and planning decisions in effective operations of retail businesses. For profitable retail businesses, accurate demand forecasting is crucial in organizing and planning production, purchasing, transportation and labor force. Retail sales series belong to a special type of time series that typically contain trend and seasonal patterns, presenting challenges in developing effective forecasting models. This work compares the forecasting performance of state space models and ARIMA models. The forecasting performance is demonstrated through a case study of retail sales of five different categories of women footwear: Boots, Booties, Flats, Sandals and Shoes. On both methodologies the model with the minimum value of Akaike's Information Criteria for the in-sample period was selected from all admissible models for further evaluation in the out-of-sample. Both one-step and multiple-step forecasts were produced. The results show that when an automatic algorithm the overall out-of-sample forecasting performance of state space and ARIMA models evaluated via RMSE, MAE and MAPE is quite similar on both one-step and multi-step forecasts. We also conclude that state space and ARIMA produce coverage probabilities that are close to the nominal rates for both one-step and multi-step forecasts.

CYCLOTech - an innovative approach for the reliable production of 99mTc - technetium

CYCLOTech is a high-tech Project, related with an innovative method for direct production of a radioactive pharmaceutical, used in excess of 85% of 35 Million Nuclear Medicine procedures done yearly, worldwide, representing globally more than 3 Billion Euros. The CYCLOTech team has developed an innovative proprietary methodology based on the use of Cyclotron Centers, formally identified as the Clients (actually, there are around 450 of this Centers in function worldwide), to directly produce and deliver the radiopharmaceutical to the final users, at the Hospitals and other Health Institutions (estimating at around 25.000, worldwide). The investment still need to finish Research and Technological Development (RTD), Industrial, Regulatory and Intellectual Property Rights (IPR) issues and allow the introduction in the Market is 4,35 M€, with a Payback of 3 years, with an Investment Return Rate (IRR) of 81,7% and a Net Present Value (NPV) of 60.620.525€ (in 2020).

Green production of zero-valent iron nanoparticles using tree leaf extracts

The interest in zero-valent iron nanoparticles has been increasing significantly since the development of a green production method in which extracts from natural products or wastes are used. However, this field of application is yet poorly studied and lacks knowledge that allows the full understanding of the production and application processes. The aim of the present work was to evaluate the viability of the utilization of several tree leaves to produce extracts which are capable of reducing iron(III) in aqueous solution to form nZVIs. The quality of the extracts was evaluated concerning their antioxidant capacity. The results show that: i) dried leaves produce extracts with higher antioxidant capacities than non-dried leaves, ii) the most favorable extraction conditions (temperature, contact time, and volume:mass ratio) were identified for each leaf, iii) with the aim of developing a green, but also low-cost,method waterwas chosen as solvent, iv) the extracts can be classified in three categories according to their antioxidant capacity (expressed as Fe(II) concentration): >40 mmol L−1; 20–40 mmol L−1; and 2–10 mmol L−1; with oak, pomegranate and green tea leaves producing the richest extracts, and v) TEManalysis proves that nZVIs (d=10–20 nm) can be produced using the tree leaf extracts.

A pré-fabricação em betão em edifícios

No presente trabalho apresenta-se um levantamento com base na literatura especializada, das diversas soluções estruturais em betão pré-fabricado existentes, aplicadas em edifícios correntes, mais especificamente as soluções ao nível dos elementos que as constituem, nomeadamente no que respeita a ligações estruturais dos elementos, com combinações in situ, das estruturas préfabricadas e as moldadas em obra, aproveitando o que de melhor se pode obter de ambas as técnicas, com vista a obter um melhor resultado final. Apesar do setor da construção civil estar em crise, tal como vários outros setores, as empresas de pré-fabricação apresentam soluções que poderão contrariar esta tendência, nomeadamente através da diversificação e flexibilização da sua produção, com inovação, criatividade e elevada qualidade. Num mercado em que a construção de edifícios de raiz sofreu um grande abrandamento, começa a surgir no mercado a necessidade de se reabilitar as construções existentes, nomeadamente nos grandes centros das cidades que foram perdendo população ao longo dos tempos. Esta requalificação do espaço urbano permite o desenvolvimento de soluções estruturais pré-fabricadas, no que respeita à reabilitação dos elementos existentes, quer por justaposição para reforço das estruturas, quer por inserção de elementos novos para efetuar correções. Os baixos custos de mão de obra, equipamentos e estaleiro, assim como a redução dos prazos de construção e entrega ao cliente final, dado que a produção não está dependente das condições existentes in situ para se desenvolver, destacam-se da construção civil tradicional. A produção integral dos elementos pré-fabricados de betão em fábrica tem outras vantagens, entre as quais, um melhor planeamento e controle da segurança, um controle rigoroso de qualidade, a redução dos custos de reparação e manutenção, melhor sustentabilidade com redução da quantidade de resíduos produzidos.

Utilization of food industry wastes for the production of zero-valent iron nanoparticles

The proper disposal of the several types of wastes produced in industrial activities increases production costs. As a consequence, it is common to develop strategies to reuse these wastes in the same process and in different processes or to transform them for use in other processes. This work combines the needs for new synthesis methods of nanomaterials and the reduction of production cost using wastes from citrine juice (orange, lime, lemon and mandarin) to produce a new added value product, green zero-valent iron nanoparticles that can be used in several applications, including environmental remediation. The results indicate that extracts of the tested fruit wastes (peel, albedo and pulp fractions) can be used to produce zero-valent iron nanoparticles (nZVIs). This shows that these wastes can be an added value product. The resulting nZVIs had sizes ranging from 3 up to 300 nm and distinct reactivities (pulp > peel > albedo extracts). All the studied nanoparticles did not present a significant agglomeration/settling tendency when compared to similar nanoparticles, which indicates that they remain in suspension and retain their reactivity.