Complex dynamics of financial indices

This paper presents a novel method for the analysis of nonlinear financial and economic systems. The modeling approach integrates the classical concepts of state space representation and time series regression. The analytical and numerical scheme leads to a parameter space representation that constitutes a valid alternative to represent the dynamical behavior. The results reveal that business cycles can be clearly revealed, while the noise effects common in financial indices can elegantly be filtered out of the results.

Slow down or race to halt: towards managing complexity of real-time energy management decisions

Existing work in the context of energy management for real-time systems often ignores the substantial cost of making DVFS and sleep state decisions in terms of time and energy and/or assume very simple models. Within this paper we attempt to explore the parameter space for such decisions and possible constraints faced.

Complex order van der Pol oscillator

In this paper a complex-order van der Pol oscillator is considered. The complex derivative Dα±ȷβ , with α,β∈R + is a generalization of the concept of integer derivative, where α=1, β=0. By applying the concept of complex derivative, we obtain a high-dimensional parameter space. Amplitude and period values of the periodic solutions of the two versions of the complex-order van der Pol oscillator are studied for variation of these parameters. Fourier transforms of the periodic solutions of the two oscillators are also analyzed.

Multi-apprentice learning for meta-heuristics parameter tuning in a multi agent scheduling system

The scheduling problem is considered in complexity theory as a NP-hard combinatorial optimization problem. Meta-heuristics proved to be very useful in the resolution of this class of problems. However, these techniques require parameter tuning which is a very hard task to perform. A Case-based Reasoning module is proposed in order to solve the parameter tuning problem in a Multi-Agent Scheduling System. A computational study is performed in order to evaluate the proposed CBR module performance.

Fractional dynamics of genetic algorithms using hexagonal space tessellation

The paper formulates a genetic algorithm that evolves two types of objects in a plane. The fitness function promotes a relationship between the objects that is optimal when some kind of interface between them occurs. Furthermore, the algorithm adopts an hexagonal tessellation of the two-dimensional space for promoting an efficient method of the neighbour modelling. The genetic algorithm produces special patterns with resemblances to those revealed in percolation phenomena or in the symbiosis found in lichens. Besides the analysis of the spacial layout, a modelling of the time evolution is performed by adopting a distance measure and the modelling in the Fourier domain in the perspective of fractional calculus. The results reveal a consistent, and easy to interpret, set of model parameters for distinct operating conditions.

A preliminary idea for an 8-competitive, log2 DMAX + log2 log2 1/U asymptotic-space, interface generation algorithm for two-level hierarchical scheduling of constrained-deadline sporadic tasks on a uniprocessor

Consider a single processor and a software system. The software system comprises components and interfaces where each component has an associated interface and each component comprises a set of constrained-deadline sporadic tasks. A scheduling algorithm (called global scheduler) determines at each instant which component is active. The active component uses another scheduling algorithm (called local scheduler) to determine which task is selected for execution on the processor. The interface of a component makes certain information about a component visible to other components; the interfaces of all components are used for schedulability analysis. We address the problem of generating an interface for a component based on the tasks inside the component. We desire to (i) incur only a small loss in schedulability analysis due to the interface and (ii) ensure that the amount of space (counted in bits) of the interface is small; this is because such an interface hides as much details of the component as possible. We present an algorithm for generating such an interface.

A complex protocol layer as a linux user-space process

With the current complexity of communication protocols, implementing its layers totally in the kernel of the operating system is too cumbersome, and it does not allow use of the capabilities only available in user space processes. However, building protocols as user space processes must not impair the responsiveness of the communication. Therefore, in this paper we present a layer of a communication protocol, which, due to its complexity, was implemented in a user space process. Lower layers of the protocol are, for responsiveness issues, implemented in the kernel. This protocol was developed to support large-scale power-line communication (PLC) with timing requirements.

Auditoria à qualidade do ar interior de um edifício de serviços - RSECE QAI

O objectivo principal deste trabalho é a realização de uma auditoria, à qualidade do ar interior (QAI), a um edifício de serviços – COCIGA, SA, tendo como base o Regulamento dos Sistemas Energéticos de Climatização dos Edifícios (RSECE). A auditoria QAI implica a medição de vários parâmetros físicos, químicos, microbiológicos e também a inspecção aos componentes do sistema de climatização com a finalidade de averiguar o seu estado de limpeza e manutenção. Assim, foram seleccionados 3 espaços, para a realização de amostragens designados por Comercial - Produtos, AVAC e Mezaninne das oficinas, nos quais foi efectuada a medição de diversos parâmetros, de acordo com as imposições do RSECE, utilizando medidores portáteis ou recorrendo a métodos analíticos. Relativamente aos parâmetros físicos, registaram-se valores de temperatura, para os três espaços estudados, entre os 21 e os 24 ºC e valores médios de humidade relativa de cerca de 50 %. Outro parâmetro medido, e de grande importância para garantir o conforto dos ocupantes, foi a velocidade do ar nos postos de trabalho. De acordo com o RSECE este valor não deve ser superior a 0,2 m/s, o que se verificou em todos os pontos medidos. O último parâmetro físico medido foi a concentração de partículas (PM10) tendo-se obtido valores de cerca de 23 μg/m3ar, valor bastante inferior ao máximo permitido pelo RSECE (150 μg/m3ar). Também no que diz respeito aos parâmetros químicos, ou seja, CO2, CO, formaldeído e ozono, não se verificaram valores superiores aos regulamentares. No caso do CO2, o valor máximo encontrado, nestes três espaços, foi de 745 ppm na Mezaninne das Oficinas e para o CO, na zona AVAC com uma concentração de 0,73 ppm. A medição do formaldeído registou valores perto dos 45 μg/m3ar e o ozono apenas foi detectado, em concentração muito reduzida, na zona Comercial – Produtos. Por fim, as concentrações de bactérias e fungos, de acordo com o RSECE, não devem ultrapassar as 500 UFC/m3ar (parâmetros microbiológicos). Em qualquer dos espaços, os valores medidos foram inferiores ao máximo legal, não ultrapassando as 50 UFC/m3ar. Da avaliação do projecto AVAC, e através da medição dos caudais de insuflação/ extracção em cada zona, concluiu-se que os seus valores não estão de acordo com os valores do projecto inicial que poderá ser imputada a uma insuficiência no funcionamento do sistema detectada na altura das medições. No que diz respeito ao estado de limpeza do sistema AVAC, apenas foi possível inspeccionar as unidades de tratamento de ar, tendo-se constatado que se encontram em boas condições. Ou seja, do ponto de vista do RSECE, e referindo-nos apenas à vertente da Qualidade do Ar Interior, o edifício em causa, cumpre todos os limites impostos para as concentrações de poluentes mas, apresenta algumas deficiências no que respeita aos caudais de ar novo insuflados em cada espaço.

Space-time monitoring of prescribed burnt soils performance – an effective tool for forest management

Among the most important measures to prevent wild forest fires is the use of prescribed and controlled burning actions in order to reduce the availability of fuel mass. However, the impact of these activities on soil physical and chemical properties varies according to the type of both soil and vegetation and is not fully understood. Therefore, soil monitoring campaigns are often used to measure these impacts. In this paper we have successfully used three statistical data treatments - the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test followed by the ANOVA and the Kruskall-Wallis tests – to investigate the variability among the soil pH, soil moisture, soil organic matter and soil iron variables for different monitoring times and sampling procedures.

An integer programming framework for sequencing cutting patterns based on interval graph completion

We derived a framework in integer programming, based on the properties of a linear ordering of the vertices in interval graphs, that acts as an edge completion model for obtaining interval graphs. This model can be applied to problems of sequencing cutting patterns, namely the minimization of open stacks problem (MOSP). By making small modifications in the objective function and using only some of the inequalities, the MOSP model is applied to another pattern sequencing problem that aims to minimize, not only the number of stacks, but also the order spread (the minimization of the stack occupation problem), and the model is tested.

An integer programming model for the minimum interval graph completion problem

The minimum interval graph completion problem consists of, given a graph G = ( V, E ), finding a supergraph H = ( V, E ∪ F ) that is an interval graph, while adding the least number of edges |F| . We present an integer programming formulation for solving the minimum interval graph completion problem recurring to a characteri- zation of interval graphs that produces a linear ordering of the maximal cliques of the solution graph.

A Fractional Perspective to the Bond Graph Modelling of World Economies

Inspired in dynamic systems theory and Brewer’s contributions to apply it to economics, this paper establishes a bond graph model. Two main variables, a set of inter-connectivities based on nodes and links (bonds) and a fractional order dynamical perspective, prove to be a good macro-economic representation of countries’ potential performance in nowadays globalization. The estimations based on time series for 50 countries throughout the last 50 decades confirm the accuracy of the model and the importance of scale for economic performance.

Efficient Legendre spectral tau algorithm for solving two-sided space-time Caputo fractional advection-dispersion equation

In this paper we present the operational matrices of the left Caputo fractional derivative, right Caputo fractional derivative and Riemann–Liouville fractional integral for shifted Legendre polynomials. We develop an accurate numerical algorithm to solve the two-sided space–time fractional advection–dispersion equation (FADE) based on a spectral shifted Legendre tau (SLT) method in combination with the derived shifted Legendre operational matrices. The fractional derivatives are described in the Caputo sense. We propose a spectral SLT method, both in temporal and spatial discretizations for the two-sided space–time FADE. This technique reduces the two-sided space–time FADE to a system of algebraic equations that simplifies the problem. Numerical results carried out to confirm the spectral accuracy and efficiency of the proposed algorithm. By selecting relatively few Legendre polynomial degrees, we are able to get very accurate approximations, demonstrating the utility of the new approach over other numerical methods.

State Space Analysis of Forest Fires

This paper studies forest fires from the perspective of dynamical systems. Burnt area, precipitation and atmospheric temperatures are interpreted as state variables of a complex system and the correlations between them are investigated by means of different mathematical tools. First, we use mutual information to reveal potential relationships in the data. Second, we adopt the state space portrait to characterize the system’s behavior. Third, we compare the annual state space curves and we apply clustering and visualization tools to unveil long-range patterns. We use forest fire data for Portugal, covering the years 1980–2003. The territory is divided into two regions (North and South), characterized by different climates and vegetation. The adopted methodology represents a new viewpoint in the context of forest fires, shedding light on a complex phenomenon that needs to be better understood in order to mitigate its devastating consequences, at both economical and environmental levels.

Fractional State Space Analysis of Economy Systems

This paper examines modern economic growth according to the multidimensional scaling (MDS) method and state space portrait (SSP) analysis. Electing GDP per capita as the main indicator for economic growth and prosperity, the long-run perspective from 1870 to 2010 identifies the main similarities among 34 world partners’ modern economic growth and exemplifies the historical waving mechanics of the largest world economy, the USA. MDS reveals two main clusters among the European countries and their old offshore territories, and SSP identifies the Great Depression as a mild challenge to the American global performance, when compared to the Second World War and the 2008 crisis.