A short-term risk management tool applied to OMEL electricity market using particle swarm optimization

Short-term risk management is highly dependent on long-term contractual decisions previously established; risk aversion factor of the agent and short-term price forecast accuracy. Trying to give answers to that problem, this paper provides a different approach for short-term risk management on electricity markets. Based on long-term contractual decisions and making use of a price range forecast method developed by the authors, the short-term risk management tool presented here has as main concern to find the optimal spot market strategies that a producer should have for a specific day in function of his risk aversion factor, with the objective to maximize the profits and simultaneously to practice the hedge against price market volatility. Due to the complexity of the optimization problem, the authors make use of Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) to find the optimal solution. Results from realistic data, namely from OMEL electricity market, are presented and discussed in detail.

A long-term risk management tool for electricity markets using swarm intelligence

This paper addresses the optimal involvement in derivatives electricity markets of a power producer to hedge against the pool price volatility. To achieve this aim, a swarm intelligence meta-heuristic optimization technique for long-term risk management tool is proposed. This tool investigates the long-term opportunities for risk hedging available for electric power producers through the use of contracts with physical (spot and forward contracts) and financial (options contracts) settlement. The producer risk preference is formulated as a utility function (U) expressing the trade-off between the expectation and the variance of the return. Variance of return and the expectation are based on a forecasted scenario interval determined by a long-term price range forecasting model. This model also makes use of particle swarm optimization (PSO) to find the best parameters allow to achieve better forecasting results. On the other hand, the price estimation depends on load forecasting. This work also presents a regressive long-term load forecast model that make use of PSO to find the best parameters as well as in price estimation. The PSO technique performance has been evaluated by comparison with a Genetic Algorithm (GA) based approach. A case study is presented and the results are discussed taking into account the real price and load historical data from mainland Spanish electricity market demonstrating the effectiveness of the methodology handling this type of problems. Finally, conclusions are dully drawn.

Targeting specific nutrient deficiencies in proteinrestricted diets: some practical facts in PKU dietary management

Among aminoacidopathies, phenylketonuria (PKU) is the most prevalent one. Early diagnosis in the neonatal period with a prompt nutritional therapy (low natural-protein and phenylalanine diet, supplemented with phenylalanine-free amino acid mixtures and special low-protein foods) remains the mainstay of the treatment. Data considering nutrient contents of cooked dishes is lacking. In this study, fourteen dishes specifically prepared for PKU individuals were analysed, regarding the lipid profile and iron and zinc contents. These dishes are poor sources of essential nutrients like Fe, Zn or n-3 fatty acids, reinforcing the need for adequate supplementation to cover individual patients’ needs. This study can contribute to a more accurate adjustment of PKU diets and supplementation in order to prevent eventual nutritional deficiencies. This study contributes to a better understanding of nutrient intake from PKU patients’ meals, showing the need for dietary supplementation.