Performance of state space and ARIMA models for consumer retail sales forecasting

Forecasting future sales is one of the most important issues that is beyond all strategic and planning decisions in effective operations of retail businesses. For profitable retail businesses, accurate demand forecasting is crucial in organizing and planning production, purchasing, transportation and labor force. Retail sales series belong to a special type of time series that typically contain trend and seasonal patterns, presenting challenges in developing effective forecasting models. This work compares the forecasting performance of state space models and ARIMA models. The forecasting performance is demonstrated through a case study of retail sales of five different categories of women footwear: Boots, Booties, Flats, Sandals and Shoes. On both methodologies the model with the minimum value of Akaike's Information Criteria for the in-sample period was selected from all admissible models for further evaluation in the out-of-sample. Both one-step and multiple-step forecasts were produced. The results show that when an automatic algorithm the overall out-of-sample forecasting performance of state space and ARIMA models evaluated via RMSE, MAE and MAPE is quite similar on both one-step and multi-step forecasts. We also conclude that state space and ARIMA produce coverage probabilities that are close to the nominal rates for both one-step and multi-step forecasts.

Can ERASMUS mobility really help crossing borders? the in and out of a case-study

As lectures, but above all, as Erasmus....

Collision-free prioritized medium access in the presence of hidden nodes without relying on out-of-band signaling

Consider the problem of sharing a wireless channel between a set of computer nodes. Hidden nodes exist and there is no base station. Each computer node hosts a set of sporadic message streams where a message stream releases messages with real-time deadlines. We propose a collision-free wireless medium access control (MAC) protocol which implements staticpriority scheduling. The MAC protocol allows multiple masters and is fully distributed. It neither relies on synchronized clocks nor out-of-band signaling; it is an adaptation to a wireless channel of the dominance protocol used in the CAN bus. But unlike that protocol, our protocol does not require a node having the ability to receive an incoming bit from the channel while transmitting to the channel. Our protocol has the key feature of not only being prioritized and collision-free but also dealing successfully with hidden nodes. This key feature enables schedulability analysis of sporadic message streams in multihop networks.

Analysis of the Out-Of-Plane Seismic Behavior of Unreinforced Masonry: A Literature Review

Although the issue of the out-of-plane response of unreinforced masonry structures under earthquake excitation is well known with consensus among the research community, this issue is simultaneously one of the more complex and most neglected areas on the seismic assessment of existing buildings. Nonetheless, its characterization should be found on the solid knowledge of the phenomenon and on the complete understanding of methodologies currently used to describe it. Based on this assumption, this article presents a general framework on the issue of the out-of-plane performance of unreinforced masonry structures, beginning with a brief introduction to the topic, followed by a compact state of art in which the principal methodologies proposed to assess the out-of-plane behavior of unreinforced masonry structures are presented. Different analytical approaches are presented, namely force and displacement-based, complemented with the presentation of existing numerical tools for the purpose presented above. Moreover, the most relevant experimental campaigns carried out in order to reproduce the phenomenon are reviewed and briefly discussed.

A simplified four-branch model for the analytical study of the out-of-plane performance of regular stone URM walls

During the last years, several studies have been made aiming to assess the out-of-plane seismic response of unreinforced stone masonry structures. This fact led to the development of a wide variety of models and approaches, ranging from simple kinematic based analytical models up to complex numerical simulations. Nevertheless, for the sake of simplicity, the out-of-plane seismic response of a masonry wall pier may be obtained by means of a simple single-degree-of-freedom system while still providing good results. In fact, despite the assumptions associated with such a simple formulation, it is also true that the epistemic uncertainty inherent with the selection of appropriate input parameters in more complex models may render them truly ineffective. In this framework, this paper focuses on the study of the out-of-plane bending of unreinforced stone masonry walls (cantilevers) by proposing a simplified analytical approach based on the construction of a linearized four-branch model, which is used to characterize the linear and nonlinear response of such structural elements through an overturning moment-rotation relationship. The formulation of the four-branch model is presented and described in detail and the meaningful parameters used for its construction are obtained from a set of experimental laboratory tests performed on six full-scale unreinforced regular sacco stone masonry specimens. Moreover, a parametric analysis aiming to evaluate the effect of these parameters’ variation on the final configuration of the model is presented and critically discussed. Finally, the results obtained from the application of the developed four-branch model on real unreinforced regular sacco stone masonry walls are thoroughly analysed and the main conclusions obtained from its application are summarized.

Experimental characterization of the out-of-plane performance of regular stone masonry walls, including test setups and axial load influence

Stone masonry is one of the oldest and most worldwide used building techniques. Nevertheless, the structural response of masonry structures is complex and the effective knowledge about their mechanical behaviour is still limited. This fact is particularly notorious when dealing with the description of their out-of-plane behaviour under horizontal loadings, as is the case of the earthquake action. In this context, this paper describes an experimental program, conducted in laboratory environment, aiming at characterizing the out-of-plane behaviour of traditional unreinforced stone masonry walls. In the scope of this campaign, six full-scale sacco stone masonry specimens were fully characterised regarding their most important mechanic, geometric and dynamic features and were tested resorting to two different loading techniques under three distinct vertical pre-compression states; three of the specimens were subjected to an out-of-plane surface load by means of a system of airbags and the remaining were subjected to an out-of-plane horizontal line-load at the top. From the experiments it was possible to observe that both test setups were able to globally mobilize the out-of-plane response of the walls, which presented substantial displacement capacity, with ratios of ultimate displacement to the wall thickness ranging between 26 and 45 %, as well as good energy dissipation capacity. Finally, very interesting results were also obtained from a simple analytical model used herein to compute a set of experimental-based ratios, namely between the maximum stability displacement and the wall thickness for which a mean value of about 60 % was found.

Simulation of masonry out-of-plane failure modes by multi-body dynamics

The seismic assessment of the local failure modes in existing masonry buildings is currently based on the identification of the so-called local mechanisms, often associated with the out-of-plane wall behavior, whose stability is evaluated by static force-based approaches and, more recently, by some displacement-based proposals. Local mechanisms consist of kinematic chains of masonry portions, often regarded as rigid bodies, with geometric nonlinearity and concentrated nonlinearity in predefined contact regions (unilateral no-tension behavior, possible sliding with friction). In this work, the dynamic behavior of local mechanisms is simulated through multi-body dynamics, to obtain the nonlinear response with efficient time history analyses that directly take into account the characteristics of the ground motion. The amplification/filtering effects of the structure are considered within the input motion. The proposed approach is validated with experimental results of two full-scale shaking-table tests on stone masonry buildings: a sacco-stone masonry façade tested at Laboratório Nacional de Engenharia Civil and a two-storey double-leaf masonry building tested at European Centre for Training and Research in Earthquake Engineering (EUCENTRE).

Analysis of PCBs in soils and sediments by microwave-assisted extraction, headspace-SPME and high resolution gas chromatography with ion-trap tandem mass spectrometry

A procedure for the determination of seven indicator PCBs in soils and sediments using microwave-assisted extraction (MAE) and headspace solid-phase microextraction (HS-SPME) prior to GC-MS/MS is described. Optimization of the HS-SPME was carried out for the most important parameters such as extraction time, sample volume and temperature. The adopted methodology has reduced consumption of organic solvents and analysis runtime. Under the optimized conditions, the method detection limit ranged from 0.6 to 1 ng/g when 5 g of sample was extracted, the precision on real samples ranged from 4 to 21% and the recovery from 69 to 104%. The proposed method, which included the analysis of a certified reference material in its validation procedure, can be extended to several other PCBs and used in the monitoring of soil or sediments for the presence of PCBs.

QuEChERS: a sample preparation for extraction of carbaryl from rat feces

Carbamate compounds are an important group of cholinesterase inhibitors. There is a need for creating awareness regarding the risks of the inadequate carbamate use in the residential areas due to potential adverse human effects. Carbaryl is a commonly used pesticide worldwide. A simple, fast, and high throughput method was developed employing liquid chromatography with fluorescence detector to determine carbaryl residues in rat feces. The extraction was performed by using a rapid, easy, cheap, effective, reliable, and safe (QuEChERS) method, using acetonitrile as the extracting solvent. The parameters for the performance of the extraction method were optimized, such as ratio of mass of sample per volume of extraction solvent, QuEChERS content, and cleanup columns. Linear response was obtained for all calibration curves (solven and matrix-matched) over the established concentration range (5 500 mg/L) with a correlation coefficients higher than 0.999. The achieved recovery was 97.9% with relative standard deviation values of 1.1% (n D 4) at 167 mg/kg fortified concentration level and the limits of detection and quantification were 27.7 and 92.3 mg/kg respectively.