Dynamic artificial neural network for electricity market prices forecast

This paper presents an artificial neural network applied to the forecasting of electricity market prices, with the special feature of being dynamic. The dynamism is verified at two different levels. The first level is characterized as a re-training of the network in every iteration, so that the artificial neural network can able to consider the most recent data at all times, and constantly adapt itself to the most recent happenings. The second level considers the adaptation of the neural network’s execution time depending on the circumstances of its use. The execution time adaptation is performed through the automatic adjustment of the amount of data considered for training the network. This is an advantageous and indispensable feature for this neural network’s integration in ALBidS (Adaptive Learning strategic Bidding System), a multi-agent system that has the purpose of providing decision support to the market negotiating players of MASCEM (Multi-Agent Simulator of Competitive Electricity Markets).

A multi-agent based approach for intelligent smart grid management

The spread and globalization of distributed generation (DG) in recent years has should highly influence the changes that occur in Electricity Markets (EMs). DG has brought a large number of new players to take action in the EMs, therefore increasing the complexity of these markets. Simulation based on multi-agent systems appears as a good way of analyzing players’ behavior and interactions, especially in a coalition perspective, and the effects these players have on the markets. MASCEM – Multi-Agent System for Competitive Electricity Markets was created to permit the study of the market operation with several different players and market mechanisms. MASGriP – Multi-Agent Smart Grid Platform is being developed to facilitate the simulation of micro grid (MG) and smart grid (SG) concepts with multiple different scenarios. This paper presents an intelligent management method for MG and SG. The simulation of different methods of control provides an advantage in comparing different possible approaches to respond to market events. Players utilize electric vehicles’ batteries and participate in Demand Response (DR) contracts, taking advantage on the best opportunities brought by the use of all resources, to improve their actions in response to MG and/or SG requests.

The role of demand response in future power systems

Power systems are planed and operated according to the optimization of the available resources. Traditionally these tasks were mostly undertaken in a centralized way which is no longer adequate in a competitive environment. Demand response can play a very relevant role in this context but adequate tools to negotiate this kind of resources are required. This paper presents an approach to deal with these issues, by using a multi-agent simulator able to model demand side players and simulate their strategic behavior. The paper includes an illustrative case study that considers an incident situation. The distribution company is able to reduce load curtailment due to load flexibility contracts previously established with demand side players.

Supporting real-time distributed computer-controlled systems with multi-hop P-NET networks

Fieldbus communication networks aim to interconnect sensors, actuators and controllers within process control applications. Therefore, they constitute the foundation upon which real-time distributed computer-controlled systems can be implemented. P-NET is a fieldbus communication standard, which uses a virtual token-passing medium-access-control mechanism. In this paper pre-run-time schedulability conditions for supporting real-time traffic with P-NET networks are established. Essentially, formulae to evaluate the upper bound of the end-to-end communication delay in P-NET messages are provided. Using this upper bound, a feasibility test is then provided to check the timing requirements for accessing remote process variables. This paper also shows how P-NET network segmentation can significantly reduce the end-to-end communication delays for messages with stringent timing requirements.

Multi-agent system for personalization of location-based services

The current ubiquitous network access and increase in network bandwidth are driving the sales of mobile location-aware user devices and, consequently, the development of context-aware applications, namely location-based services. The goal of this project is to provide consumers of location-based services with a richer end-user experience by means of service composition, personalization, device adaptation and continuity of service. Our approach relies on a multi-agent system composed of proxy agents that act as mediators and providers of personalization meta-services, device adaptation and continuity of service for consumers of pre-existing location-based services. These proxy agents, which have Web services interfaces to ensure a high level of interoperability, perform service composition and take in consideration the preferences of the users, the limitations of the user devices, making the usage of different types of devices seamless for the end-user. To validate and evaluate the performance of this approach, use cases were defined, tests were conducted and results gathered which demonstrated that the initial goals were successfully fulfilled.

Beliefs and Conflicts in a Real World Multi-Agent System

In a real world multiagent system, where the agents are faced with partial, incomplete and intrinsically dynamic knowledge, conflicts are inevitable. Frequently, different agents have goals or beliefs that cannot hold simultaneously. Conflict resolution methodologies have to be adopted to overcome such undesirable occurrences. In this paper we investigate the application of distributed belief revision techniques as the support for conflict resolution in the analysis of the validity of the candidate beams to be produced in the CERN particle accelerators. This CERN multiagent system contains a higher hierarchy agent, the Specialist agent, which makes use of meta-knowledge (on how the con- flicting beliefs have been produced by the other agents) in order to detect which beliefs should be abandoned. Upon solving a conflict, the Specialist instructs the involved agents to revise their beliefs accordingly. Conflicts in the problem domain are mapped into conflicting beliefs of the distributed belief revision system, where they can be handled by proven formal methods. This technique builds on well established concepts and combines them in a new way to solve important problems. We find this approach generally applicable in several domains.

Intelligent Micro Grid Management using a Multi-Agent approach

Recent changes in electricity markets (EMs) have been potentiating the globalization of distributed generation. With distributed generation the number of players acting in the EMs and connected to the main grid has grown, increasing the market complexity. Multi-agent simulation arises as an interesting way of analysing players’ behaviour and interactions, namely coalitions of players, as well as their effects on the market. MASCEM was developed to allow studying the market operation of several different players and MASGriP is being developed to allow the simulation of the micro and smart grid concepts in very different scenarios This paper presents a methodology based on artificial intelligence techniques (AI) for the management of a micro grid. The use of fuzzy logic is proposed for the analysis of the agent consumption elasticity, while a case based reasoning, used to predict agents’ reaction to price changes, is an interesting tool for the micro grid operator.

Metalearner based on Dynamic Neural Network for Strategic Bidding in electricity Markets

The restructuring of electricity markets, conducted to increase the competition in this sector, and decrease the electricity prices, brought with it an enormous increase in the complexity of the considered mechanisms. The electricity market became a complex and unpredictable environment, involving a large number of different entities, playing in a dynamic scene to obtain the best advantages and profits. Software tools became, therefore, essential to provide simulation and decision support capabilities, in order to potentiate the involved players’ actions. This paper presents the development of a metalearner, applied to the decision support of electricity markets’ negotiation entities. The proposed metalearner executes a dynamic artificial neural network to create its own output, taking advantage on several learning algorithms implemented in ALBidS, an adaptive learning system that provides decision support to electricity markets’ players. The proposed metalearner considers different weights for each strategy, depending on its individual quality of performance. The results of the proposed method are studied and analyzed in scenarios based on real electricity markets’ data, using MASCEM - a multi-agent electricity market simulator that simulates market players’ operation in the market.

Swordfish: an Autonomous Surface Vehicle for Network Centric Operations

The design and development of the swordfish autonomous surface vehicle (ASV) system is discussed. Swordfish is an ocean capable 4.5 m long catamaran designed for network centric operations (with ocean and air going vehicles and human operators). In the basic configuration, Swordfish is both a survey vehicle and a communications node with gateways for broadband, Wi-Fi and GSM transports and underwater acoustic modems. In another configuration, Swordfish mounts a docking station for the autonomous underwater vehicle Isurus from Porto University. Swordfish has an advanced control architecture for multi-vehicle operations with mixed initiative interactions (human operators are allowed to interact with the control loops).