Long-term price range forecast applied to risk management using regression models

Long-term contractual decisions are the basis of an efficient risk management. However those types of decisions have to be supported with a robust price forecast methodology. This paper reports a different approach for long-term price forecast which tries to give answers to that need. Making use of regression models, the proposed methodology has as main objective to find the maximum and a minimum Market Clearing Price (MCP) for a specific programming period, and with a desired confidence level α. Due to the problem complexity, the meta-heuristic Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) was used to find the best regression parameters and the results compared with the obtained by using a Genetic Algorithm (GA). To validate these models, results from realistic data are presented and discussed in detail.

A long-term swarm intelligence hedging tool applied to electricity markets

This paper proposes a swarm intelligence long-term hedging tool to support electricity producers in competitive electricity markets. This tool investigates the long-term hedging opportunities available to electric power producers through the use of contracts with physical (spot and forward) and financial (options) settlement. To find the optimal portfolio the producer risk preference is stated by a utility function (U) expressing the trade-off between the expectation and the variance of the return. Variance estimation and the expected return are based on a forecasted scenario interval determined by a long-term price range forecast model, developed by the authors, whose explanation is outside the scope of this paper. The proposed tool makes use of Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) and its performance has been evaluated by comparing it with a Genetic Algorithm (GA) based approach. To validate the risk management tool a case study, using real price historical data for mainland Spanish market, is presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.

A long-term risk management tool for electricity markets using swarm intelligence

This paper addresses the optimal involvement in derivatives electricity markets of a power producer to hedge against the pool price volatility. To achieve this aim, a swarm intelligence meta-heuristic optimization technique for long-term risk management tool is proposed. This tool investigates the long-term opportunities for risk hedging available for electric power producers through the use of contracts with physical (spot and forward contracts) and financial (options contracts) settlement. The producer risk preference is formulated as a utility function (U) expressing the trade-off between the expectation and the variance of the return. Variance of return and the expectation are based on a forecasted scenario interval determined by a long-term price range forecasting model. This model also makes use of particle swarm optimization (PSO) to find the best parameters allow to achieve better forecasting results. On the other hand, the price estimation depends on load forecasting. This work also presents a regressive long-term load forecast model that make use of PSO to find the best parameters as well as in price estimation. The PSO technique performance has been evaluated by comparison with a Genetic Algorithm (GA) based approach. A case study is presented and the results are discussed taking into account the real price and load historical data from mainland Spanish electricity market demonstrating the effectiveness of the methodology handling this type of problems. Finally, conclusions are dully drawn.

Global material analysis on phosphorus flows, supply horizon and impact assessment on phosphorus depletion

Different problems are daily discuss on environmental aspects such acid rain, eutrophication, global warming and an others problems. Rarely do we find some discussions about phosphorus problematic. Through the years the phosphorus as been a real problem and must be more discussed. On this thesis was done a global material flow analysis of phosphorus, based on data from the year 2004, the production of phosphate rock in that year was 18.9 million tones, almost this amount it was used as fertilizer on the soil and the plants only can uptake, on average, 20% of the input of fertilizer to grow up, the remainder is lost for the phosphorus soil. In the phosphorus soil there is equilibrium between the phosphorus available to uptake from the plants and the phosphorus associate with other compounds, this equilibrium depends of the kind of soil and is related with the soil pH. A reserve inventory was done and we have 15,000 million tones as reserve, the amount that is economical available. The reserve base is estimated in 47,000 million tones. The major reserves can be found in Morocco and Western Sahara, United Sates, China and South Africa. The reserve estimated in 2009 was 15,000 million tone of phosphate rock or 1,963 million tone of P. If every year the mined phosphate rock is around 22 Mt/yr (phosphorus production on 2008 USGS 2009), and each year the consumption of phosphorus increases because of the food demand, the reserves of phosphate rock will be finished in about 90 years, or maybe even less. About the value/impact assessment was done a qualitative analysis, if on the future we don’t have more phosphate rock to produce fertilizers, it is expected a drop on the crops yields, each depends of the kind of the soil and the impact on the humans feed and animal production will not be a relevant problem. We can recovery phosphorus from different waste streams such as ploughing crop residues back into the soil, Food processing plants and food retailers, Human and animal excreta, Meat and bone meal, Manure fibre, Sewage sludge and wastewater. Some of these examples are developed in the paper.

Influence of long-term wearing of unstable shoes on compensatory control of posture: An electromyography-based analysis

Purpose: This study investigated the influence of long-term wearing of unstable shoes (WUS) on compensatory postural adjustments (CPA) to an external perturbation. Methods: Participants were divided into two groups: one wore unstable shoes while the other wore conventional shoes for 8 weeks. The ground reaction force signal was used to calculate the anterior– posterior (AP) displacement of the centre of pressure (CoP) and the electromyographic signal of gastrocnemius medialis (GM), tibialis anterior (TA), rectus femoris (RF) and biceps femoris (BF) muscles was used to assess individual muscle activity, antagonist co-activation and reciprocal activation at the joint (TA/GM and RF/(BF + GM) pairs) and muscle group levels (ventral (TA + RF)/dorsal (GM + BF) pair) within time intervals typical for CPA. The electromyographic signal was also used to assess muscle latency. The variables described were evaluated before and after the 8-week period while wearing the unstable shoes and barefoot. Results: Long-term WUS led to: an increase of BF activity in both conditions (barefoot and wearing the unstable shoes); a decrease of GM activity; an increase of antagonist co-activation and a decrease of reciprocal activation level at the TA/GM and ventral/dorsal pairs in the unstable shoe condition. Additionally, WUS led to a decrease in CoP displacement. However, no differences were observed in muscle onset and offset. Conclusion: Results suggest that the prolonged use of unstable shoes leads to increased ankle and muscle groups’ antagonist co-activation levels and higher performance by the postural control system.

Using attractor dynamics to generate decentralized motion control of two mobile robots transporting a long object in coordination

Dynamical systems theory is used here as a theoretical language and tool to design a distributed control architecture for a team of two mobile robots that must transport a long object and simultaneously avoid obstacles. In this approach the level of modeling is at the level of behaviors. A “dynamics” of behavior is defined over a state space of behavioral variables (heading direction and path velocity). The environment is also modeled in these terms by representing task constraints as attractors (i.e. asymptotically stable states) or reppelers (i.e. unstable states) of behavioral dynamics. For each robot attractors and repellers are combined into a vector field that governs the behavior. The resulting dynamical systems that generate the behavior of the robots may be nonlinear. By design the systems are tuned so that the behavioral variables are always very close to one attractor. Thus the behavior of each robot is controled by a time series of asymptotically stable states. Computer simulations support the validity of our dynamic model architectures.

Long-term dependence in financial prices: evidence from the Belgian stock market returns

This article aims to contribute to the discussion of long-term dependence, focusing on the behavior of the main Belgian stock index. Non-parametric analyzes of the general characteristics of temporal frequency show that daily returns are non-ergodic and non-stationary. Therefore, we use the rescaled-range analysis (R/S) and the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA), under the fractional Brownian motion approach, and we found slight evidence of long-term dependence. These results refute the random walk hypothesis with i.i.d. increments, which is the basis of the EMH in its weak form, and call into question some theoretical modeling of asset pricing. Other more localized complementary study, to identify the evolution of the degree of dependence over time windows, showed that the index has become less persistent from 2010. This may mean a maturing market by the extension of the effects of current financial crisis.

Long-term memory in financial prices: evidence from the Dutch stock market returns

Prepared for presentation at the Portuguese Finance Network International Conference 2014, Vilamoura, Portugal, June 18-20

A new horizon for online teaching and learning

The Polytechnic Institute of Oporto (IPP), which has a solid history of online education and innovation through the use of technology, has been particularly interested and focused on Massive Open Online Courses (MOOC) developments. The aim of this paper is to present the whole process from initial discussions to completion of the “Mathematics Without Limits” MOOC Project that exists in IPP and also to contribute for a change in the way as teaching and learning Mathematics is seen and practiced nowadays. In 2013, IPP developed its own platform, which gave us the opportunity to explore new educational techniques as a pedagogical resource as well as to enhance students’ motivation, through a set of interactive materials at their disposal, totally adapted to their needs. Students lack of motivation is mainly justified by their weak Math preparation, poor consolidated basis on the subject and different backgrounds of the students. To tackle this issue and based on our Math online courses teaching experience, we decided to create short duration MOOC, expecting to aid retention of students and also to reverse the path of students giving up on Math by giving them a friendly way of managing their own learning commitment. We also think that this MOOC will be a good approach to level out some math skills among freshmen.

A new horizon for online teaching and learning

The Polytechnic Institute of Oporto (IPP), which has a solid history of online education and innovation through the use of technology, has been particularly interested and focused on Massive Open Online Courses (MOOC) developments. The aim of this paper is to present the whole process from initial discussions to completion of the “Mathematics Without Limits” MOOC Project that exists in IPP and also to contribute for a change in the way as teaching and learning Mathematics is seen and practiced nowadays. In 2013, IPP developed its own platform, which gave us the opportunity to explore new educational techniques as a pedagogical resource as well as to enhance students’ motivation, through a set of interactive materials at their disposal, totally adapted to their needs. Students lack of motivation is mainly justified by their weak Math preparation, poor consolidated basis on the subject and different backgrounds of the students. To tackle this issue and based on our Math online courses teaching experience, we decided to create short duration MOOC, expecting to aid retention of students and also to reverse the path of students giving up on Math by giving them a friendly way of managing their own learning commitment. We also think that this MOOC will be a good approach to level out some math skills among freshmen.

A New horizon for online teaching and learning

The Polytechnic Institute of Oporto (IPP), which has a solid history of online education and innovation through the use of technology, has been particularly interested and focused on Massive Open Online Courses (MOOC) developments. The aim of this paper is to present the whole process from initial discussions to completion of the “Mathematics Without Limits” MOOC Project that exists in IPP and also to contribute for a change in the way as teaching and learning Mathematics is seen and practiced nowadays. In 2013, IPP developed its own platform, which gave us the opportunity to explore new educational techniques as a pedagogical resource as well as to enhance students’ motivation, through a set of interactive materials at their disposal, totally adapted to their needs. Students lack of motivation is mainly justified by their weak Math preparation, poor consolidated basis on the subject and different backgrounds of the students. To tackle this issue and based on our Math online courses teaching experience, we decided to create short duration MOOC, expecting to aid retention of students and also to reverse the path of students giving up on Math by giving them a friendly way of managing their own learning commitment. We also think that this MOOC will be a good approach to level out some math skills among freshmen.

Expatriates recruitment and selection for long-term international assignments in portuguese companies

Long-term international assignments’ increase requires more attention being paid for the preparation of these foreign assignments, especially on the recruitment and selection process of expatriates. This article explores how the recruitment and selection process of expatriates is developed in Portuguese companies, examining the main criteria on recruitment and selection of expatriates’ decision to send international assignments. The paper is based on qualitative case studies of companies located in Portugal. The data were collected through semi-structured interviews of 42 expatriates and 18 organisational representatives as well from nine Portuguese companies. The findings show that the most important criteria are: (1) trust from managers, (2) years in service, (3) previous technical and language competences, (4) organisational knowledge and, (5) availability. Based on the findings, the article discusses in detail the main theoretical and managerial implications. Suggestions for further research are also presented.

Modelos de previsão de produção para centrais mini-hídricas

O constante crescimento dos produtores em regime especial aliado à descentralização dos pontos injetores na rede, tem permitido uma redução da importação de energia mas também tem acarretado maiores problemas para a gestão da rede. Estes problemas estão relacionados com o facto da produção estar dependente das condições climatéricas, como é o caso dos produtores eólicos, hídricos e solares. A previsão da energia produzida em função da previsão das condições climatéricas tem sido alvo de atenção por parte da comunidade empresarial do setor, pelo facto de existir modelos razoáveis para a previsão das condições climatéricas a curto prazo, e até a longo prazo. Este trabalho trata, em concreto, do problema da previsão de produção em centrais mini-hídricas, apresentando duas propostas para essa previsão. Em ambas as propostas efetua-se inicialmente a previsão do caudal que chega à central, sendo esta depois convertida em potência que é injetada na rede. Para a previsão do caudal utilizaram-se dois métodos estatísticos: o método Holt-Winters e os modelos ARMAX. Os dois modelos de previsão propostos consideram um horizonte temporal de uma semana, com discretização horária, para uma central no norte de Portugal, designadamente a central de Penide. O trabalho também contempla um pequeno estudo da bibliografia existente tanto para a previsão da produção como de afluências de centrais hidroelétricas. Aborda, ainda, conceitos relacionados com as mini-hídricas e apresenta uma caraterização do parque de centrais mini-hídricas em Portugal.

TURTLE: Systems and technologies for deep ocean long term presence

This paper describes the TURTLE project that aim to develop sub-systems with the capability of deep-sea long-term presence. Our motivation is to produce new robotic ascend and descend energy efficient technologies to be incorporated in robotic vehicles used by civil and military stakeholders for underwater operations. TURTLE contribute to the sustainable presence and operations in the sea bottom. Long term presence on sea bottom, increased awareness and operation capabilities in underwater sea and in particular on benthic deeps can only be achieved through the use of advanced technologies, leading to automation of operation, reducing operational costs and increasing efficiency of human activity.

Responses of the alga Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata to long-term exposure to metal stress

The green alga Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata has been widely used in ecological risk assessment, usually based on the impact of the toxicants in the alga growth. However, the physiological causes that lead algal growth inhibition are not completely understood. This work aimed to evaluate the biochemical and structural modifications in P. subcapitata after exposure, for 72 h, to three nominal concentrations of Cd(II), Cr(VI), Cu(II) and Zn(II), corresponding approximately to 72 h-EC10 and 72 h-EC50 values and a high concentration (above 72 h-EC90 values). The incubation of algal cells with the highest concentration of Cd(II), Cr(VI) or Cu(II) resulted in a loss of membrane integrity of ~16, 38 and 55%, respectively. For all metals tested, an inhibition of esterase activity, in a dose-dependent manner, was observed. Reduction of chlorophyll a content, decrease of maximum quantum yield of photosystem II and modification of mitochondrial membrane potential was also verified. In conclusion, the exposure of P. subcapitata to metals resulted in a perturbation of the cell physiological status. Principal component analysis revealed that the impairment of esterase activity combined with the reduction of chlorophyll a content were related with the inhibition of growth caused by a prolonged exposure to the heavy metals.