Long-term price range forecast applied to risk management using regression models

Long-term contractual decisions are the basis of an efficient risk management. However those types of decisions have to be supported with a robust price forecast methodology. This paper reports a different approach for long-term price forecast which tries to give answers to that need. Making use of regression models, the proposed methodology has as main objective to find the maximum and a minimum Market Clearing Price (MCP) for a specific programming period, and with a desired confidence level α. Due to the problem complexity, the meta-heuristic Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) was used to find the best regression parameters and the results compared with the obtained by using a Genetic Algorithm (GA). To validate these models, results from realistic data are presented and discussed in detail.

A long-term swarm intelligence hedging tool applied to electricity markets

This paper proposes a swarm intelligence long-term hedging tool to support electricity producers in competitive electricity markets. This tool investigates the long-term hedging opportunities available to electric power producers through the use of contracts with physical (spot and forward) and financial (options) settlement. To find the optimal portfolio the producer risk preference is stated by a utility function (U) expressing the trade-off between the expectation and the variance of the return. Variance estimation and the expected return are based on a forecasted scenario interval determined by a long-term price range forecast model, developed by the authors, whose explanation is outside the scope of this paper. The proposed tool makes use of Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) and its performance has been evaluated by comparing it with a Genetic Algorithm (GA) based approach. To validate the risk management tool a case study, using real price historical data for mainland Spanish market, is presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.

A long-term risk management tool for electricity markets using swarm intelligence

This paper addresses the optimal involvement in derivatives electricity markets of a power producer to hedge against the pool price volatility. To achieve this aim, a swarm intelligence meta-heuristic optimization technique for long-term risk management tool is proposed. This tool investigates the long-term opportunities for risk hedging available for electric power producers through the use of contracts with physical (spot and forward contracts) and financial (options contracts) settlement. The producer risk preference is formulated as a utility function (U) expressing the trade-off between the expectation and the variance of the return. Variance of return and the expectation are based on a forecasted scenario interval determined by a long-term price range forecasting model. This model also makes use of particle swarm optimization (PSO) to find the best parameters allow to achieve better forecasting results. On the other hand, the price estimation depends on load forecasting. This work also presents a regressive long-term load forecast model that make use of PSO to find the best parameters as well as in price estimation. The PSO technique performance has been evaluated by comparison with a Genetic Algorithm (GA) based approach. A case study is presented and the results are discussed taking into account the real price and load historical data from mainland Spanish electricity market demonstrating the effectiveness of the methodology handling this type of problems. Finally, conclusions are dully drawn.

Effects of antihypertensive drugs in the differentiation and activation of human bone cells

O osso é um tecido metabolicamente ativo e a sua remodelação é importante para regular e manter a massa óssea. Esse processo envolve a reabsorção do material ósseo por ação dos osteoclastos e a síntese de novo material ósseo mediado pelos osteoblastos. Vários estudos têm sugerido que a pressão arterial elevada está associada a alterações no metabolismo do cálcio, o que leva ao aumento da perda de cálcio e da remoção de cálcio do osso. Embora as alterações no metabolismo ósseo sejam um efeito adverso associado a alguns fármacos antihipertensores, o conhecimento em relação a este efeito terapêutico ligado com os bloqueadores de canais de cálcio é ainda muito escasso. Uma vez que os possíveis efeitos no osso podem ser atribuídos à ação antihipertensiva dessas moléculas, ou através de um efeito direto nas atividades metabólicas ósseas, torna-se necessário esclarecer este assunto. Devido ao facto de que as alterações no metabolismo ósseo são um efeito adverso associado a alguns fármacos antihipertensores, o objetivo deste trabalho é avaliar o efeito que os bloqueadores dos canais de cálcio exercem sobre as células ósseas humanas, nomeadamente osteoclastos, osteoblastos e co-culturas de ambos os tipos celulares. Verificou-se que os efeitos dos fármacos antihipertensores variaram consoante o fármaco testado e o sistema de cultura usado. Alguns fármacos revelaram a capacidade de estimular a osteoclastogénese e a osteoblastogénese em concentrações baixas. Independentemente da identidade do fármaco, concentrações elevadas revelaram ser prejudiciais para a resposta das células ósseas. Os mecanismos intracelulares através dos quais os efeitos foram exercidos foram igualmente afetados de forma diferencial pelos diferentes fármacos. Em resumo, este trabalho demonstrou que os bloqueadores dos canais de cálcio utilizados possuem a capacidade de afetar direta- e indiretamente a resposta de células ósseas humanas, cultivadas isoladamente ou co-cultivadas. Este tipo de informação é crucial para compreender e prevenir os potenciais efeitos destes fármacos no tecido ósseo, e também para adequar e eventualmente melhorar a terapêutica antihipertensora de cada paciente.

Influence of long-term wearing of unstable shoes on compensatory control of posture: An electromyography-based analysis

Purpose: This study investigated the influence of long-term wearing of unstable shoes (WUS) on compensatory postural adjustments (CPA) to an external perturbation. Methods: Participants were divided into two groups: one wore unstable shoes while the other wore conventional shoes for 8 weeks. The ground reaction force signal was used to calculate the anterior– posterior (AP) displacement of the centre of pressure (CoP) and the electromyographic signal of gastrocnemius medialis (GM), tibialis anterior (TA), rectus femoris (RF) and biceps femoris (BF) muscles was used to assess individual muscle activity, antagonist co-activation and reciprocal activation at the joint (TA/GM and RF/(BF + GM) pairs) and muscle group levels (ventral (TA + RF)/dorsal (GM + BF) pair) within time intervals typical for CPA. The electromyographic signal was also used to assess muscle latency. The variables described were evaluated before and after the 8-week period while wearing the unstable shoes and barefoot. Results: Long-term WUS led to: an increase of BF activity in both conditions (barefoot and wearing the unstable shoes); a decrease of GM activity; an increase of antagonist co-activation and a decrease of reciprocal activation level at the TA/GM and ventral/dorsal pairs in the unstable shoe condition. Additionally, WUS led to a decrease in CoP displacement. However, no differences were observed in muscle onset and offset. Conclusion: Results suggest that the prolonged use of unstable shoes leads to increased ankle and muscle groups’ antagonist co-activation levels and higher performance by the postural control system.

Characterization of the effects of antiepileptic drugs on bone metabolism: in vitro studies with human osteoblastic and osteoclastic cells

Bone is constantly being molded and shaped by the action of osteoclasts and osteoblasts. A proper equilibrium between both cell types metabolic activities is required to ensure an adequate skeletal tissue structure, and it involves resorption of old bone and formation of new bone tissue. It is reported that treatment with antiepileptic drugs (AEDs) can elicit alterations in skeletal structure, in particular in bone mineral density. Nevertheless, the knowledge regarding the effects of AEDs on bone cells are still scarce. In this context, the aim of this study was to investigate the effects of five different AEDs on human osteoclastic, osteoblastic and co-cultured cells. Osteoclastic cell cultures were established from precursor cells isolated from human peripheral blood and were characterized for tartrate-resistant acid phosphatase (TRAP) activity, number of TRAP+ multinucleated cells, presence of cells with actin rings and expressing vitronectin and calcitonin receptors and apoptosis rate. Also, the involvement of several signaling pathways on the cellular response was addressed. Osteoblastic cell cultures were obtained from femur heads of patients (25-45 years old) undergoing orthopaedic surgery procedures and were then studied for cellular proliferation/viability, ALP activity, histochemical staining of ALP and apoptosis rate. Also the expression of osteoblast-related genes and the involvement of some osteoblastogenesis-related signalling pathways on cellular response were addressed. For co-cultured cells, osteoblastic cells were firstly seeded and cultured. After that, PBMC were added to the osteoblastic cells and co-cultures were evaluated using the same osteoclast and osteoblast parameters mentioned above for the corresponding isolated cell. Cell-cultures were maintained in the absence (control) or in the presence of different AEDs (carbamazepine, gabapentin, lamotrigine, topiramate and valproic acid). All the tested drugs were able to affect osteoclastic and osteoblastic cells development, although with different profiles on their osteoclastogenic and osteoblastogenic modulation properties. Globally, the tendency was to inhibit the process. Furthermore, the signaling pathways involved in the process also seemed to be differently affected by the AEDs, suggesting that the different drugs may affect osteoclastogenesis and/or osteoblastogenesis through different mechanisms. In conclusion, the present study showed that the different AEDs had the ability to directly and indirectly modulate bone cells differentiation, shedding new light towards a better understanding of how these drugs can affect bone tissue.

Using attractor dynamics to generate decentralized motion control of two mobile robots transporting a long object in coordination

Dynamical systems theory is used here as a theoretical language and tool to design a distributed control architecture for a team of two mobile robots that must transport a long object and simultaneously avoid obstacles. In this approach the level of modeling is at the level of behaviors. A “dynamics” of behavior is defined over a state space of behavioral variables (heading direction and path velocity). The environment is also modeled in these terms by representing task constraints as attractors (i.e. asymptotically stable states) or reppelers (i.e. unstable states) of behavioral dynamics. For each robot attractors and repellers are combined into a vector field that governs the behavior. The resulting dynamical systems that generate the behavior of the robots may be nonlinear. By design the systems are tuned so that the behavioral variables are always very close to one attractor. Thus the behavior of each robot is controled by a time series of asymptotically stable states. Computer simulations support the validity of our dynamic model architectures.

Long-term dependence in financial prices: evidence from the Belgian stock market returns

This article aims to contribute to the discussion of long-term dependence, focusing on the behavior of the main Belgian stock index. Non-parametric analyzes of the general characteristics of temporal frequency show that daily returns are non-ergodic and non-stationary. Therefore, we use the rescaled-range analysis (R/S) and the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA), under the fractional Brownian motion approach, and we found slight evidence of long-term dependence. These results refute the random walk hypothesis with i.i.d. increments, which is the basis of the EMH in its weak form, and call into question some theoretical modeling of asset pricing. Other more localized complementary study, to identify the evolution of the degree of dependence over time windows, showed that the index has become less persistent from 2010. This may mean a maturing market by the extension of the effects of current financial crisis.

Long-term memory in financial prices: evidence from the Dutch stock market returns

Prepared for presentation at the Portuguese Finance Network International Conference 2014, Vilamoura, Portugal, June 18-20

Role of SPARC in Bone Remodeling and Cancer‐Related Bone Metastasis

There is a growing socioeconomic recognition that clinical bone diseases such as bone infections, bone tumors and osteoporotic bone loss mainly associated with ageing, are major issues in today0s society. SPARC (secreted protein, acidic and rich in cysteine), a matricellular glycoprotein, may be a promising therapeutic target for preventing or treating bone‐related diseases. In fact, SPARC is associated with tissue remodeling, repair, development, cell turnover, bone mineralization and may also participate in growth and progression of tumors, namely cancer‐related bone metastasis. Yet, the function of SPARC in such biological processes is poorly understood and controversial. The main objective of this work is to review the current knowledge related to the activity of SPARC in bone remodeling, tumorigenesis, and bone metastasis. Progress in understanding SPARC biology may provide novel strategies for bone regeneration and the development of anti‐angiogenic, anti‐proliferative, or counter‐adhesive treatments specifically against bone metastasis.

A biocomposite of collagen nanofibers and nanohydroxyapatite for bone regeneration

This work aims to design a synthetic construct that mimics the natural bone extracellular matrix through innovative approaches based on simultaneous type I collagen electrospinning and nanophased hydroxyapatite (nanoHA) electrospraying using non-denaturating conditions and non-toxic reagents. The morphological results, assessed using scanning electron microscopy and atomic force microscopy (AFM), showed a mesh of collagen nanofibers embedded with crystals of HA with fiber diameters within the nanometer range (30 nm), thus significantly lower than those reported in the literature, over 200 nm. The mechanical properties, assessed by nanoindentation using AFM, exhibited elastic moduli between 0.3 and 2 GPa. Fourier transformed infrared spectrometry confirmed the collagenous integrity as well as the presence of nanoHA in the composite. The network architecture allows cell access to both collagen nanofibers and HA crystals as in the natural bone environment. The inclusion of nanoHA agglomerates by electrospraying in type I collagen nanofibers improved the adhesion and metabolic activity of MC3T3-E1 osteoblasts. This new nanostructured collagen–nanoHA composite holds great potential for healing bone defects or as a functional membrane for guided bone tissue regeneration and in treating bone diseases.

Expatriates recruitment and selection for long-term international assignments in portuguese companies

Long-term international assignments’ increase requires more attention being paid for the preparation of these foreign assignments, especially on the recruitment and selection process of expatriates. This article explores how the recruitment and selection process of expatriates is developed in Portuguese companies, examining the main criteria on recruitment and selection of expatriates’ decision to send international assignments. The paper is based on qualitative case studies of companies located in Portugal. The data were collected through semi-structured interviews of 42 expatriates and 18 organisational representatives as well from nine Portuguese companies. The findings show that the most important criteria are: (1) trust from managers, (2) years in service, (3) previous technical and language competences, (4) organisational knowledge and, (5) availability. Based on the findings, the article discusses in detail the main theoretical and managerial implications. Suggestions for further research are also presented.