Training control centers' operators in incident diagnosis and power restoration using intelligent tutoring systems

The activity of Control Center operators is important to guarantee the effective performance of Power Systems. Operators’ actions are crucial to deal with incidents, especially severe faults like blackouts. In this paper, we present an Intelligent Tutoring approach for training Portuguese Control Center operators in tasks like incident analysis and diagnosis, and service restoration of Power Systems. Intelligent Tutoring System (ITS) approach is used in the training of the operators, having into account context awareness and the unobtrusive integration in the working environment. Several Artificial Intelligence techniques were criteriously used and combined together to obtain an effective Intelligent Tutoring environment, namely Multiagent Systems, Neural Networks, Constraint-based Modeling, Intelligent Planning, Knowledge Representation, Expert Systems, User Modeling, and Intelligent User Interfaces.

Inexact restoration approaches to solve mathematical program with complementarity constraints

Mathematical Program with Complementarity Constraints (MPCC) finds applica- tion in many fields. As the complementarity constraints fail the standard Linear In- dependence Constraint Qualification (LICQ) or the Mangasarian-Fromovitz constraint qualification (MFCQ), at any feasible point, the nonlinear programming theory may not be directly applied to MPCC. However, the MPCC can be reformulated as NLP problem and solved by nonlinear programming techniques. One of them, the Inexact Restoration (IR) approach, performs two independent phases in each iteration - the feasibility and the optimality phases. This work presents two versions of an IR algorithm to solve MPCC. In the feasibility phase two strategies were implemented, depending on the constraints features. One gives more importance to the complementarity constraints, while the other considers the priority of equality and inequality constraints neglecting the complementarity ones. The optimality phase uses the same approach for both algorithm versions. The algorithms were implemented in MATLAB and the test problems are from MACMPEC collection.

On sampling collection procedure effectiveness for forest soil characterization

One of the most important measures to prevent wild forest fires is the use of prescribed and controlled burning actions as it reduce the fuel mass availability. The impact of these management activities on soil physical and chemical properties varies according to the type of both soil and vegetation. Decisions in forest management plans are often based on the results obtained from soil-monitoring campaigns. Those campaigns are often man-labor intensive and expensive. In this paper we have successfully used the multivariate statistical technique Robust Principal Analysis Compounds (ROBPCA) to investigate on the sampling procedure effectiveness for two different methodologies, in order to reflect on the possibility of simplifying and reduce the sampling collection process and its auxiliary laboratory analysis work towards a cost-effective and competent forest soil characterization.

Forest fires occurrences and burned area in mainland Portugal: preliminary assessment to a fifteen years period

Portugal, as well as the Mediterranean basin, is favorable to the occurrence of forest fires. In this work a statistical analysis was carried out based on the official information, considering the forest fires occurrences and the corresponding burned area for each of the districts of the mainland Portugal, between 1996 and 2010. Concerning to the forest fires occurrence it was possible to identify three main regions in mainland Portugal, while the burned area can be characterized in two main regions. Associations between districts and years are different in the two approaches. The results obtained provide a synthetic analysis of the phenomenon of forest fires in continental Portugal, based on all the official information available to date.

Soil erosion after forest fires: evaluation of mitigation measures applied to drainage channels in the northwest of Portugal

The development and implementation of measures which promote the reduction of the impacts of forest fires on soils is imperative and should be part of any strategy for forest and soil preservation and recovery, especially considering the actual scenario of continuous growth in the number of fires and burnt area. Consequently, with the dendrocaustologic reality that has characterized the Portuguese mainland in recent decades, a research project promoted by the Center for the Study of Geography and Spatial Planning (CEGOT) was implemented with the objective of applying several erosion mitigation measures in a burned area of the Peneda-Geres National Park in NW Portugal. This paper therefore seeks to present the measures applied in the study area within the project Soil Protec, relating to triggered channel processes and the results of preliminary observations concerning the evaluation of the effectiveness of erosion mitigation measures implemented, as well as their cost/benefit ratio.

Space-time monitoring of prescribed burnt soils performance – an effective tool for forest management

Among the most important measures to prevent wild forest fires is the use of prescribed and controlled burning actions in order to reduce the availability of fuel mass. However, the impact of these activities on soil physical and chemical properties varies according to the type of both soil and vegetation and is not fully understood. Therefore, soil monitoring campaigns are often used to measure these impacts. In this paper we have successfully used three statistical data treatments - the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test followed by the ANOVA and the Kruskall-Wallis tests – to investigate the variability among the soil pH, soil moisture, soil organic matter and soil iron variables for different monitoring times and sampling procedures.

Some reflections on acquisition, processing and analysis of statistical data in forest soils

Beyond the classical statistical approaches (determination of basic statistics, regression analysis, ANOVA, etc.) a new set of applications of different statistical techniques has increasingly gained relevance in the analysis, processing and interpretation of data concerning the characteristics of forest soils. This is possible to be seen in some of the recent publications in the context of Multivariate Statistics. These new methods require additional care that is not always included or refered in some approaches. In the particular case of geostatistical data applications it is necessary, besides to geo-reference all the data acquisition, to collect the samples in regular grids and in sufficient quantity so that the variograms can reflect the spatial distribution of soil properties in a representative manner. In the case of the great majority of Multivariate Statistics techniques (Principal Component Analysis, Correspondence Analysis, Cluster Analysis, etc.) despite the fact they do not require in most cases the assumption of normal distribution, they however need a proper and rigorous strategy for its utilization. In this work, some reflections about these methodologies and, in particular, about the main constraints that often occur during the information collecting process and about the various linking possibilities of these different techniques will be presented. At the end, illustrations of some particular cases of the applications of these statistical methods will also be presented.

Prescribed burning impact on forest soil properties – a fuzzy boolean nets approach

The Portuguese northern forests are often and severely affected by wildfires during the Summer season. These occurrences significantly affect and negatively impact all ecosystems, namely soil, fauna and flora. In order to reduce the occurrences of natural wildfires, some measures to control the availability of fuel mass are regularly implemented. Those preventive actions concern mainly prescribed burnings and vegetation pruning. This work reports on the impact of a prescribed burning on several forest soil properties, namely pH, soil moisture, organic matter content and iron content, by monitoring the soil self-recovery capabilities during a one year span. The experiments were carried out in soil cover over a natural site of Andaluzitic schist, in Gramelas, Caminha, Portugal, which was kept intact from prescribed burnings during a period of four years. Soil samples were collected from five plots at three different layers (0–3, 3–6 and 6–18) 1 day before prescribed fire and at regular intervals after the prescribed fire. This paper presents an approach where Fuzzy Boolean Nets (FBN) and Fuzzy reasoning are used to extract qualitative knowledge regarding the effect of prescribed fire burning on soil properties. FBN were chosen due to the scarcity on available quantitative data. The results showed that soil properties were affected by prescribed burning practice and were unable to recover their initial values after one year.

Fuzzy Boolean nets investigation of the alteration of some physical forest soil properties due to a prescribed fire action

Portuguese northern forests are often and severely affected by wildfires during the summer season. Some preventive actions, such as prescribed (or controlled) burnings and clear-cut logging, are often used as a measure to reduce the occurrences of wildfires. In the particular case of Serra da Cabreira forest, due to extremely difficulties in operational field work, the prescribed (or controlled) burning technique is the the most common preventive action used to reduce the existing fuel load amount. This paper focuses on a Fuzzy Boolean Nets analysis of the changes in some forest soil properties, namely pH, moisture and organic matter content, after a controlled fire, and on the difficulties found during the sampling process and how they were overcome. The monitoring process was conducted during a three-month period in Anjos, Vieira do Minho, Portugal, an area located in a contact zone between a two-mica coarse-grained porphyritic granite and a biotite with plagioclase granite. The sampling sites were located in a spot dominated by quartzphyllite with quartz veins whose bedrock is partially altered and covered by slightly thick humus, which maintains low undergrowth vegetation.

Acquisition and data analysis related to changes in some forest soils properties after prescribed fire action

Controlled fires in forest areas are frequently used in most Mediterranean countries as a preventive technique to avoid severe wildfires in summer season. In Portugal, this forest management method of fuel mass availability is also used and has shown to be beneficial as annual statistical reports confirm that the decrease of wildfires occurrence have a direct relationship with the controlled fire practice. However prescribed fire can have serious side effects in some forest soil properties. This work shows the changes that occurred in some forest soils properties after a prescribed fire action. The experiments were carried out in soil cover over a natural site of Andaluzitic schist, in Gramelas, Caminha, Portugal, that had not been burn for four years. The composed soil samples were collected from five plots at three different layers (0-3cm, 3-6cm and 6-18cm) during a three-year monitoring period after the prescribed burning. Principal Component Analysis was used to reach the presented conclusions.

Soil sampling design and sampling techniques for soil properties monitoring – common difficulties related to forest soils

Mathematical models and statistical analysis are key instruments in soil science scientific research as they can describe and/or predict the current state of a soil system. These tools allow us to explore the behavior of soil related processes and properties as well as to generate new hypotheses for future experimentation. A good model and analysis of soil properties variations, that permit us to extract suitable conclusions and estimating spatially correlated variables at unsampled locations, is clearly dependent on the amount and quality of data and of the robustness techniques and estimators. On the other hand, the quality of data is obviously dependent from a competent data collection procedure and from a capable laboratory analytical work. Following the standard soil sampling protocols available, soil samples should be collected according to key points such as a convenient spatial scale, landscape homogeneity (or non-homogeneity), land color, soil texture, land slope, land solar exposition. Obtaining good quality data from forest soils is predictably expensive as it is labor intensive and demands many manpower and equipment both in field work and in laboratory analysis. Also, the sampling collection scheme that should be used on a data collection procedure in forest field is not simple to design as the sampling strategies chosen are strongly dependent on soil taxonomy. In fact, a sampling grid will not be able to be followed if rocks at the predicted collecting depth are found, or no soil at all is found, or large trees bar the soil collection. Considering this, a proficient design of a soil data sampling campaign in forest field is not always a simple process and sometimes represents a truly huge challenge. In this work, we present some difficulties that have occurred during two experiments on forest soil that were conducted in order to study the spatial variation of some soil physical-chemical properties. Two different sampling protocols were considered for monitoring two types of forest soils located in NW Portugal: umbric regosol and lithosol. Two different equipments for sampling collection were also used: a manual auger and a shovel. Both scenarios were analyzed and the results achieved have allowed us to consider that monitoring forest soil in order to do some mathematical and statistical investigations needs a sampling procedure to data collection compatible to established protocols but a pre-defined grid assumption often fail when the variability of the soil property is not uniform in space. In this case, sampling grid should be conveniently adapted from one part of the landscape to another and this fact should be taken into consideration of a mathematical procedure.

Forest soil short term response to prescribed fire: an approach by Principal Components Analysis

In the current context of serious climate changes, where the increase of the frequency of some extreme events occurrence can enhance the rate of periods prone to high intensity forest fires, the National Forest Authority often implements, in several Portuguese forest areas, a regular set of measures in order to control the amount of fuel mass availability (PNDFCI, 2008). In the present work we’ll present a preliminary analysis concerning the assessment of the consequences given by the implementation of prescribed fire measures to control the amount of fuel mass in soil recovery, in particular in terms of its water retention capacity, its organic matter content, pH and content of iron. This work is included in a larger study (Meira-Castro, 2009(a); Meira-Castro, 2009(b)). According to the established praxis on the data collection, embodied in multidimensional matrices of n columns (variables in analysis) by p lines (sampled areas at different depths), and also considering the quantitative data nature present in this study, we’ve chosen a methodological approach that considers the multivariate statistical analysis, in particular, the Principal Component Analysis (PCA ) (Góis, 2004). The experiments were carried out in a soil cover over a natural site of Andaluzitic schist, in Gramelas, Caminha, NW Portugal, who was able to maintain itself intact from prescribed burnings from four years and was submit to prescribed fire in March 2008. The soils samples were collected from five different plots at six different time periods. The methodological option that was adopted have allowed us to identify the most relevant relational structures inside the n variables, the p samples and in two sets at the same time (Garcia-Pereira, 1990). Consequently, and in addition to the traditional outputs produced from the PCA, we have analyzed the influence of both sampling depths and geomorphological environments in the behavior of all variables involved.

Soil attributes dynamics evaluation after prescribed burning practice in northwestern Portugal forest

The Portuguese northern forests are often and severely affected by wildfires during the summer season. These occurrences affect significant and rudely all ecosystems, namely soil, fauna and flora. Preventive actions such as prescribed burnings and clear-cut logging are frequently used and have showed a significant reduction of the natural wildfires occurrences. In Portugal, and due to some technical and operational conditions, prescribed burnings in forests are the most common preventive action used to reduce the existing fuel hazard. The overall impacts of this preventive action on Portuguese ecosystems are complex and not fully understood. This work reports to the study of a prescribed burning impact in soil chemical properties, namely pH, humidity and organic matter, by monitoring the soil self-recovery capacity. The experiments were carried out in soil cover over a natural site of Andaluzitic schist, in Gramelas, Caminha, Portugal, who was able to maintain itself intact from prescribed burnings from four years. The composed soil samples were collected from five plots at three different layers (0-3cm, 3-6cm and 6-18cm) 1 day before prescribed fire and after the prescribed fire. The results have shown that the dynamic equilibrium in soil was affected significantly.

Analysis of Forest Fires by means of Pseudo Phase Plane and Multidimensional Scaling Methods

Forest fires dynamics is often characterized by the absence of a characteristic length-scale, long range correlations in space and time, and long memory, which are features also associated with fractional order systems. In this paper a public domain forest fires catalogue, containing information of events for Portugal, covering the period from 1980 up to 2012, is tackled. The events are modelled as time series of Dirac impulses with amplitude proportional to the burnt area. The time series are viewed as the system output and are interpreted as a manifestation of the system dynamics. In the first phase we use the pseudo phase plane (PPP) technique to describe forest fires dynamics. In the second phase we use multidimensional scaling (MDS) visualization tools. The PPP allows the representation of forest fires dynamics in two-dimensional space, by taking time series representative of the phenomena. The MDS approach generates maps where objects that are perceived to be similar to each other are placed on the map forming clusters. The results are analysed in order to extract relationships among the data and to better understand forest fires behaviour.

Dynamic Analysis and Pattern Visualization of Forest Fires

This paper analyses forest fires in the perspective of dynamical systems. Forest fires exhibit complex correlations in size, space and time, revealing features often present in complex systems, such as the absence of a characteristic length-scale, or the emergence of long range correlations and persistent memory. This study addresses a public domain forest fires catalogue, containing information of events for Portugal, during the period from 1980 up to 2012. The data is analysed in an annual basis, modelling the occurrences as sequences of Dirac impulses with amplitude proportional to the burnt area. First, we consider mutual information to correlate annual patterns. We use visualization trees, generated by hierarchical clustering algorithms, in order to compare and to extract relationships among the data. Second, we adopt the Multidimensional Scaling (MDS) visualization tool. MDS generates maps where each object corresponds to a point. Objects that are perceived to be similar to each other are placed on the map forming clusters. The results are analysed in order to extract relationships among the data and to identify forest fire patterns.