Long-term price range forecast applied to risk management using regression models

Long-term contractual decisions are the basis of an efficient risk management. However those types of decisions have to be supported with a robust price forecast methodology. This paper reports a different approach for long-term price forecast which tries to give answers to that need. Making use of regression models, the proposed methodology has as main objective to find the maximum and a minimum Market Clearing Price (MCP) for a specific programming period, and with a desired confidence level α. Due to the problem complexity, the meta-heuristic Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) was used to find the best regression parameters and the results compared with the obtained by using a Genetic Algorithm (GA). To validate these models, results from realistic data are presented and discussed in detail.

Dynamic artificial neural network for electricity market prices forecast

This paper presents an artificial neural network applied to the forecasting of electricity market prices, with the special feature of being dynamic. The dynamism is verified at two different levels. The first level is characterized as a re-training of the network in every iteration, so that the artificial neural network can able to consider the most recent data at all times, and constantly adapt itself to the most recent happenings. The second level considers the adaptation of the neural network’s execution time depending on the circumstances of its use. The execution time adaptation is performed through the automatic adjustment of the amount of data considered for training the network. This is an advantageous and indispensable feature for this neural network’s integration in ALBidS (Adaptive Learning strategic Bidding System), a multi-agent system that has the purpose of providing decision support to the market negotiating players of MASCEM (Multi-Agent Simulator of Competitive Electricity Markets).

Real-time energy resources scheduling considering short-term and very short-term wind forecast

This paper proposes an energy resources management methodology based on three distinct time horizons: day-ahead scheduling, hour-ahead scheduling, and real-time scheduling. In each scheduling process it is necessary the update of generation and consumption operation and of the storage and electric vehicles storage status. Besides the new operation condition, it is important more accurate forecast values of wind generation and of consumption using results of in short-term and very short-term methods. A case study considering a distribution network with intensive use of distributed generation and electric vehicles is presented.

ANN based day-ahead spinning reserve forecast for electricity market simulation

Electricity market players operating in a liberalized environment require adequate decision support tools, allowing them to consider all the business opportunities and take strategic decisions. Ancillary services represent a good negotiation opportunity that must be considered by market players. This paper deals with short-term predication of day-ahead spinning reserve (SR) requirement that helps the ISO to make effective and timely decisions. Based on these forecasted information, market participants can use strategic bidding for day-ahead SR market. The proposed concepts and methodologies are implemented in MASCEM, a multi-agent based electricity market simulator. A case study based on California ISO (CAISO) data is included; the forecasted results are presented and compared with CAISO published forecast.

ANN based day-ahead ancillary services forecast for electricity market simulation

Adequate decision support tools are required by electricity market players operating in a liberalized environment, allowing them to consider all the business opportunities and take strategic decisions. Ancillary services (AS) represent a good negotiation opportunity that must be considered by market players. Based on the ancillary services forecasting, market participants can use strategic bidding for day-ahead ancillary services markets. For this reason, ancillary services market simulation is being included in MASCEM, a multi-agent based electricity market simulator that can be used by market players to test and enhance their bidding strategies. The paper presents the methodology used to undertake ancillary services forecasting, based on an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) approach. ANNs are used to day-ahead prediction of non-spinning reserve (NS), regulation-up (RU), and regulation down (RD). Spinning reserve (SR) is mentioned as past work for comparative analysis. A case study based on California ISO (CAISO) data is included; the forecasted results are presented and compared with CAISO published forecast.

A sensitivity study of the WRF model in wind simulation for an area of high wind energy

The performance of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model in wind simulation was evaluated under different numerical and physical options for an area of Portugal, located in complex terrain and characterized by its significant wind energy resource. The grid nudging and integration time of the simulations were the tested numerical options. Since the goal is to simulate the near-surface wind, the physical parameterization schemes regarding the boundary layer were the ones under evaluation. Also, the influences of the local terrain complexity and simulation domain resolution on the model results were also studied. Data from three wind measuring stations located within the chosen area were compared with the model results, in terms of Root Mean Square Error, Standard Deviation Error and Bias. Wind speed histograms, occurrences and energy wind roses were also used for model evaluation. Globally, the model accurately reproduced the local wind regime, despite a significant underestimation of the wind speed. The wind direction is reasonably simulated by the model especially in wind regimes where there is a clear dominant sector, but in the presence of low wind speeds the characterization of the wind direction (observed and simulated) is very subjective and led to higher deviations between simulations and observations. Within the tested options, results show that the use of grid nudging in simulations that should not exceed an integration time of 2 days is the best numerical configuration, and the parameterization set composed by the physical schemes MM5–Yonsei University–Noah are the most suitable for this site. Results were poorer in sites with higher terrain complexity, mainly due to limitations of the terrain data supplied to the model. The increase of the simulation domain resolution alone is not enough to significantly improve the model performance. Results suggest that error minimization in the wind simulation can be achieved by testing and choosing a suitable numerical and physical configuration for the region of interest together with the use of high resolution terrain data, if available.

Distributed energy resources scheduling considering real-time resources forecast

Energy resource scheduling is becoming increasingly important, such as the use of more distributed generators and electric vehicles connected to the distribution network. This paper proposes a methodology to be used by Virtual Power Players (VPPs), regarding the energy resource scheduling in smart grids and considering day-ahead, hour-ahead and realtime time horizons. This method considers that energy resources are managed by a VPP which establishes contracts with their owners. The full AC power flow calculation included in the model takes into account network constraints. In this paper, distribution function errors are used to simulate variations between time horizons, and to measure the performance of the proposed methodology. A 33-bus distribution network with large number of distributed resources is used.

Avaliação da posição ortostática em plataforma de forças de dois indivíduos com acidente vascular encefálico antes e após uma intervenção baseado no conceito Bobath

Introdução: O acidente vascular encefálico (AVE) é uma importante e frequente condição de saúde que se repercute na funcionalidade do indivíduo. No sentido de reabilitar a função perdida, é comum o recurso a intervenções de fisioterapia baseado o conceito de Bobath. Como tal, importa verificar, as modificações no âmbito do controlo postural, através da migração do centro de pressão na base de suporte, face à aplicação de uma intervenção segundo abordagem baseada no conceito de Bobath em dois indivíduos com AVE. Métodos e participantes: Foram recrutados dois indivíduos com diagnóstico de AVE num hospital da zona do grande Porto. Dados referentes ao equilíbrio estático na condição de medição “olhos abertos ou fechados” e “calçado ou descalço” foram obtidos através de plataforma de forças, antes e após uma intervenção baseado no conceito de Bobath durante 13 semanas (M0 e M1). Nestes dois momentos foram ainda avaliados a mobilidade, função cognitiva, participação, equilíbrio através do teste Timed Up & Go (TUG) e Timed Up & Go Modificado (TUGM), e das escalas Mini Mental State Examination (MMSE), Postural Assessment for Stroke Scale (PASS), Escala de Berg (EB) e Índice de Barthel Modificado (IBM). Resultados: Os participantes obtiveram em ambos os momentos pontuação máxima no MMSE. Ambos os indivíduos atingiram o valor máximo no IBM em M1 (Mo: A: 78; B: 65). Ambos os indivíduos aumentaram o score entre M0 e M1, relativamente ao PASS (A: M0:21; M1:33; B: M0: 26; M1:34) e EB (A: M0:48; M1:54; B: M0: 30; M1:50). O tempo de realização do TUG e do TUGM diminuíram entre momentos em ambos os indivíduos (respectivamente: A: 15''13'' a 13''27''; B: 24''13'' a 13''88'' e A: 19''08''' a 13''27''; B: 29''60''' a 17''64'''). A área de deslocação do centro de pressão (CP) variou entre momentos em todas as condições de avaliação, sendo menor na condição “olhos abertos e descalço” em ambos os participantes (“olhos abertos e calçado”: A: M0= 1,364, M1=2,796; B: M0=1,892, M1=2,979; “olhos abertos e descalço”: A: M0= 0,758, M1=0,727; B: M0=3,064, M1=1,952; “olhos fechados e calçado”: A: M0= 2,360, M1=2,998; B: M0=2,232, M1= 4,392; “olhos fechados e descalço”: A: M0= 1,347, M1=2,388; B: M0=1,652, M1= 1,016). O desvio padrão das deslocações anteroposteriores variou entre momentos, sendo tendencialmente maior em M1 e na condição “descalço e olhos abertos”(“olhos abertos e calçado”: A: M0= 0,201, M1=0,500; B: M0=0,252, M1=0,310; “olhos abertos e descalço”: A: M0= 0,118, M1=0,165; B: M0=0,282, M1=0,276; “olhos fechados e calçado”: A: M0= 0,308, M1=0,398; B: M0=0,274, M1= 0,471; “olhos fechados e descalço”: A: M0= 0,158 , M1=0,373; B: M0=0,230, M1= 0,172), o desvio padrão das deslocações médio-lateral seguem a mesma tendência (“olhos abertos e calçado”: A: M0= 0,370 , M1=0,473; B: M0=0,454, M1=0,517; “olhos abertos e descalço”: A: M0= 0,354, M1=0,236 ; B: M0=0,584, M1=0,381; “olhos fechados e calçado”: A: M0= 0,425, M1=0,463; B: M0=0,462, M1= 0,583; “olhos fechados e descalço”: A: M0= 0,475, M1=0,416; B: M0=0,389, M1= 0,342). A velocidade de oscilação na direcção antero – posterior variou entre momentos, sendo tendencialmente menor em M1, em ambos os participantes e em todas as condições de avaliação: “olhos abertos e calçado”: A: M0= 0,886 , M1=0,532; B: M0=2,507, M1=01,072; “olhos abertos e descalço”: A: M0= 2,562, M1=3,815 ; B: M0=4,367, M1=0,262; “olhos fechados e calçado”: A: M0= 2,689, M1=1,757; B: M0=2,821, M1= 0,769; “olhos fechados e descalço”: A: M0= 2,984, M1=2,525; B: M0=4,100, M1= 0,265), a velocidade de oscilação na direcção médio – lateral seguem a mesma tendência para as condições de “olhos abertos e calçado”: A: M0= 6,524 , M1=6,218; B: M0=0,467, M1=0,404; “olhos fechados e calçado”: A: M0= 6,387, M1=1,927; B: M0=0,351, M1= 0,505; mas a velocidade de oscilação aumenta para as condições de “olhos abertos e descalço”: A: M0= 3,108, M1=7,806 ; B: M0=1,150, M1=8,054; “olhos fechados e descalço”: A: M0= 3,444, M1=3,839; B: M0=1,434, M1= 7,891). Conclusão: Entre os dois momentos os indivíduos melhoraram a sua mobilidade, equilíbrio, participação e actividades, potencialmente devido à intervenção baseado no conceito de Bobath.

Crescer com saúde. Perspectiva dos professores do 1.º ciclo acerca da postura dos alunos e análise postural de crianças com 6 a 7 anos inseridas na comunidade escolar

O presente estudo teve como objectivos conhecer a percepção dos professores do ensino básico acerca da postura corporal dos alunos na sala de aula e analisar a postura de alunos do 1º ano do ensino básico. Este estudo foi realizado numa escola do 1º Ciclo, com 6 professores voluntários e 40 alunos do 1º ano. Na I parte referente ao estudo qualitativo, realizou-se uma discussão por grupo focal, com um roteiro de perguntas que os professores foram discutindo livremente expondo as suas opiniões. Concluiu-se que há por parte dos professores noção de como é a postura corporal dos alunos na sala de aula, como essa postura corporal, pode influenciar de forma, positiva ou negativa o estado de saúde do aluno na sala de aula e comprometer a qualidade de vida dos alunos. Na II parte quantitativa os alunos foram avaliados através do registo fotográfico, num programa de avaliação postural, demonstrando os resultados que na amostra em estudo não foi encontrado desvio vertical significativo entre a cintura escapular e a cintura pélvica. No entanto, foi encontrado desvio horizontal significativo do alinhamento das omoplatas entre si e das espinhas ilíacas postero-superiores entre si, já indicando um início de desvio postural com carácter escoliótico. Conclui-se pois que os alunos avaliados apresentavam problemas posturais com necessidade de serem acompanhados por Fisioterapeutas.

A qualidade de vida no indivíduo com perda auditiva

Este estudo pretende medir a qualidade de vida dos indivíduos com perda auditiva (PA), definida pela perda média dos limiares aéreos tonais. Este estudo transversal quantitativo e descritivo foi conduzido entre Maio e Outubro de 2010 numa amostra de 328 indivíduos (47.0% do género masculino), com idade média ± desvio-padrão de 45.82 ± 12.93 anos, referenciados ao Gabinete de Audiologia do CHTS-UPA, EPE que foram avaliados e entrevistados. Recorreu-se à Versão Portuguesa 2 do Questionário de Estado de Saúde (SF-36v2) do CEIS-FE-UC, como instrumento para medir a qualidade de vida, complementado com um questionário de identificação e de dados sócio-demográficos e clínicos. RESULTADOS: Os indivíduos com perda auditiva que integraram a amostra do presente estudo revelaram piores percepções do Estado de Saúde do que as autopercepções dos elementos da amostra que constituiram os valores de referência, principalmente nas dimensões Saúde Geral da componente Física e nas dimensões Função Social e Saúde Mental da componente Mental da Saúde. CONCLUSÕES: a perda auditiva encontra-se negativamente associada a valores elevados de saúde, promovendo diferenças entre indivíduos com PA e indivíduos sem PA, nas dimensões do SF-36v2, Funcão Física e Social, Desempenho Físico e Emocional, Saúde Geral e Mental e Vitalidade. A avaliação da audição, a prevenção da perda auditiva e a reabilitação auditiva podem contribuir para uma melhoria do desempenho social e bemestar da população.

Abordagem ao risco de crédito no âmbito do acordo de Basileia III em Portugal

Dissertação para a obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Contabilidade e Finanças Orientador: Mestre Adalmiro Álvaro Malheiro de Castro Andrade Pereira

Análise do investimento direto estrangeiro em Portugal utilizando a metodologia de box-jenkins

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Contabilidade e Finanças Orientadora: Professora Doutora Patrícia Ramos

Influence of an unstable shoe on compensatory postural adjustments: an experimental evaluation

This study attempted to evaluate the influence of using an unstable shoe in muscle re-cruitment strategies and center of pressure (CoP) displacement after the application of an external perturba-tion. Fourteen healthy female subjects participated in this study. The electromyographic activity of medial ga-strocnemius, tibialis anterior, rectus femoris, biceps femoris, rectus abdominis and erector spinae muscles and the kinetic values to calculate the CoP were collected and analyzed after the application of an external pertur-bation with the subject in standing position, with no shoes and using unstable footwear. The results showed increased in medial gastrocnemius activity during the first compensatory postural adjustments and late com-pensatory postural adjustments when using an unstable shoe. There were no differences in standard deviation and maximum peak of anteroposterior displacement of CoP between measurements. From the experimental findings, one can conclude that the use of an unstable shoe leads to an increase in gastrocnemius activity with no increase in CoP displacement following an unexpected external perturbation.

Natural Gas location design and operation

A major determinant of the level of effective natural gas supply is the ease to feed customers, minimizing system total costs. The aim of this work is the study of the right number of Gas Supply Units – GSUs - and their optimal location in a gas network. This paper suggests a GSU location heuristic, based on Lagrangean relaxation techniques. The heuristic is tested on the Iberian natural gas network, a system modelized with 65 demand nodes, linked by physical and virtual pipelines. Lagrangean heuristic results along with the allocation of loads to gas sources are presented, using a 2015 forecast gas demand scenario.

Short-term wind forecasting for energy resources scheduling

This paper proposes a wind power forecasting methodology based on two methods: direct wind power forecasting and wind speed forecasting in the first phase followed by wind power forecasting using turbines characteristics and the aforementioned wind speed forecast. The proposed forecasting methodology aims to support the operation in the scope of the intraday resources scheduling model, namely with a time horizon of 5 minutes. This intraday model supports distribution network operators in the short-term scheduling problem, in the smart grid context. A case study using a real database of 12 months recorded from a Portuguese wind power farm was used. The results show that the straightforward methodology can be applied in the intraday model with high wind speed and wind power accuracy. The wind power forecast direct method shows better performance than wind power forecast using turbine characteristics and wind speed forecast obtained in first phase.