Strategic bidding in electricity markets: an agent-based simulator with game theory for scenario analysis

Electricity markets are complex environments, involving a large number of different entities, with specific characteristics and objectives, making their decisions and interacting in a dynamic scene. Game-theory has been widely used to support decisions in competitive environments; therefore its application in electricity markets can prove to be a high potential tool. This paper proposes a new scenario analysis algorithm, which includes the application of game-theory, to evaluate and preview different scenarios and provide players with the ability to strategically react in order to exhibit the behavior that better fits their objectives. This model includes forecasts of competitor players’ actions, to build models of their behavior, in order to define the most probable expected scenarios. Once the scenarios are defined, game theory is applied to support the choice of the action to be performed. Our use of game theory is intended for supporting one specific agent and not for achieving the equilibrium in the market. MASCEM (Multi-Agent System for Competitive Electricity Markets) is a multi-agent electricity market simulator that models market players and simulates their operation in the market. The scenario analysis algorithm has been tested within MASCEM and our experimental findings with a case study based on real data from the Iberian Electricity Market are presented and discussed.

Object transportation by multiple mobile robots controlled by attractor dynamics: theory and implementation

Dynamical systems theory is used as a theoretical language and tool to design a distributed control architecture for teams of mobile robots, that must transport a large object and simultaneously avoid collisions with (either static or dynamic) obstacles. Here we demonstrate in simulations and implementations in real robots that it is possible to simplify the architectures presented in previous work and to extend the approach to teams of n robots. The robots have no prior knowledge of the environment. The motion of each robot is controlled by a time series of asymptotical stable states. The attractor dynamics permits the integration of information from various sources in a graded manner. As a result, the robots show a strikingly smooth an stable team behaviour.

Fractional control of dynamic systems

The concepts involved with fractional calculus (FC) theory are applied in almost all areas of science and engineering. Its ability to yield superior modeling and control in many dynamical systems is well recognized. In this article, we will introduce the fundamental aspects associated with the application of FC to the control of dynamic systems.

Fractional order modelling of dynamic backlash

This paper studies the dynamical properties of systems with backlash and impact phenomena. This type of non-linearity can be tackled in the perspective of the fractional calculus theory. Fractional and integer order models are compared and their influence upon the emerging dynamics is analysed. It is demonstrated that fractional models can memorize dynamical effects due to multiple micro-collisions.

Strategic Bidding in Electricity Markets: An agent-based simulator with game theory for scenario analysis

Electricity markets are complex environments, involving a large number of different entities, with specific characteristics and objectives, making their decisions and interacting in a dynamic scene. Game-theory has been widely used to support decisions in competitive environments; therefore its application in electricity markets can prove to be a high potential tool. This paper proposes a new scenario analysis algorithm, which includes the application of game-theory, to evaluate and preview different scenarios and provide players with the ability to strategically react in order to exhibit the behavior that better fits their objectives. This model includes forecasts of competitor players’ actions, to build models of their behavior, in order to define the most probable expected scenarios. Once the scenarios are defined, game theory is applied to support the choice of the action to be performed. Our use of game theory is intended for supporting one specific agent and not for achieving the equilibrium in the market. MASCEM (Multi-Agent System for Competitive Electricity Markets) is a multi-agent electricity market simulator that models market players and simulates their operation in the market. The scenario analysis algorithm has been tested within MASCEM and our experimental findings with a case study based on real data from the Iberian Electricity Market are presented and discussed.

O risco do custo e do tempo no escanamento de projetos

Dissertação apresentada ao Instituto Politécnico do Porto para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Logística Orientada por: Prof. Dr. Pedro Godinho

Ankle dynamic in stroke patients: agonist vs. antagonist muscle relations

O documento em anexo encontra-se na versão post-print (versão corrigida pelo editor).

Dynamic artificial neural network for electricity market prices forecast

This paper presents an artificial neural network applied to the forecasting of electricity market prices, with the special feature of being dynamic. The dynamism is verified at two different levels. The first level is characterized as a re-training of the network in every iteration, so that the artificial neural network can able to consider the most recent data at all times, and constantly adapt itself to the most recent happenings. The second level considers the adaptation of the neural network’s execution time depending on the circumstances of its use. The execution time adaptation is performed through the automatic adjustment of the amount of data considered for training the network. This is an advantageous and indispensable feature for this neural network’s integration in ALBidS (Adaptive Learning strategic Bidding System), a multi-agent system that has the purpose of providing decision support to the market negotiating players of MASCEM (Multi-Agent Simulator of Competitive Electricity Markets).

Self-optimization for dynamic scheduling in manufacturing systems

Scheduling is a critical function that is present throughout many industries and applications. A great need exists for developing scheduling approaches that can be applied to a number of different scheduling problems with significant impact on performance of business organizations. A challenge is emerging in the design of scheduling support systems for manufacturing environments where dynamic adaptation and optimization become increasingly important. In this paper, we describe a Self-Optimizing Mechanism for Scheduling System through Nature Inspired Optimization Techniques (NIT).

A hybrid intelligent system for distributed dynamic scheduling

This chapter addresses the resolution of dynamic scheduling by means of meta-heuristic and multi-agent systems. Scheduling is an important aspect of automation in manufacturing systems. Several contributions have been proposed, but the problem is far from being solved satisfactorily, especially if scheduling concerns real world applications. The proposed multi-agent scheduling system assumes the existence of several resource agents (which are decision-making entities based on meta-heuristics) distributed inside the manufacturing system that interact with other agents in order to obtain optimal or near-optimal global performances.

MASDSheGATS – Scheduling System for Dynamic Manufacturing Environments

This chapter addresses the resolution of scheduling in manufacturing systems subject to perturbations. The planning of Manufacturing Systems involves frequently the resolution of a huge amount and variety of combinatorial optimisation problems with an important impact on the performance of manufacturing organisations. Examples of those problems are the sequencing and scheduling problems in manufacturing management, routing and transportation, layout design and timetabling problems.

A study on dynamic state information (DSI) around users for safe urban life

To select each node by devices and by contexts in urban computing, users have to put their plan information and their requests into a computing environment (ex. PDA, Smart Devices, Laptops, etc.) in advance and they will try to keep the optimized states between users and the computing environment. However, because of bad contexts, users may get the wrong decision, so, one of the users’ demands may be requesting the good server which has higher security. To take this issue, we define the structure of Dynamic State Information (DSI) which takes a process about security including the relevant factors in sending/receiving contexts, which select the best during user movement with server quality and security states from DSI. Finally, whenever some information changes, users and devices get the notices including security factors, then an automatic reaction can be possible; therefore all users can safely use all devices in urban computing.

Adaptive learning in multiagent systems: a forecasting methodology based on error analysis

Electricity markets are complex environments, involving a large number of different entities, playing in a dynamic scene to obtain the best advantages and profits. MASCEM is a multi-agent electricity market simu-lator to model market players and simulate their operation in the market. Market players are entities with specific characteristics and objectives, making their decisions and interacting with other players. MASCEM pro-vides several dynamic strategies for agents’ behaviour. This paper presents a method that aims to provide market players strategic bidding capabilities, allowing them to obtain the higher possible gains out of the market. This method uses an auxiliary forecasting tool, e.g. an Artificial Neural Net-work, to predict the electricity market prices, and analyses its forecasting error patterns. Through the recognition of such patterns occurrence, the method predicts the expected error for the next forecast, and uses it to adapt the actual forecast. The goal is to approximate the forecast to the real value, reducing the forecasting error.

MASDScheGATS: a prototype system for dynamic scheduling

A manufacturing system has a natural dynamic nature observed through several kinds of random occurrences and perturbations on working conditions and requirements over time. For this kind of environment it is important the ability to efficient and effectively adapt, on a continuous basis, existing schedules according to the referred disturbances, keeping performance levels. The application of Meta-Heuristics and Multi-Agent Systems to the resolution of this class of real world scheduling problems seems really promising. This paper presents a prototype for MASDScheGATS (Multi-Agent System for Distributed Manufacturing Scheduling with Genetic Algorithms and Tabu Search).

Multi-agent electricity market simulation with dynamic strategies & virtual power producers

Distributed energy resources will provide a significant amount of the electricity generation and will be a normal profitable business. In the new decentralized grid, customers will be among the many decentralized players and may even help to co-produce the required energy services such as demand-side management and load shedding. So, they will gain the opportunity to be more active market players. The aggregation of DG plants gives place to a new concept: the Virtual Power Producer (VPP). VPPs can reinforce the importance of these generation technologies making them valuable in electricity markets. In this paper we propose the improvement of MASCEM, a multi-agent simulation tool to study negotiations in electricity spot markets based on different market mechanisms and behavior strategies, in order to take account of decentralized players such as VPP.