Multidimensional scaling analysis of the dynamics of a country economy

This paper analyzes the Portuguese short-run business cycles over the last 150 years and presents the multidimensional scaling (MDS) for visualizing the results. The analytical and numerical assessment of this long-run perspective reveals periods with close connections between the macroeconomic variables related to government accounts equilibrium, balance of payments equilibrium, and economic growth. The MDS method is adopted for a quantitative statistical analysis. In this way, similarity clusters of several historical periods emerge in the MDS maps, namely, in identifying similarities and dissimilarities that identify periods of prosperity and crises, growth, and stagnation. Such features are major aspects of collective national achievement, to which can be associated the impact of international problems such as the World Wars, the Great Depression, or the current global financial crisis, as well as national events in the context of broad political blueprints for the Portuguese society in the rising globalization process.

Shared resources and precedence constraints with capacity sharing and stealing

This paper proposes a new strategy to integrate shared resources and precedence constraints among real-time tasks, assuming no precise information on critical sections and computation times is available. The concept of bandwidth inheritance is combined with a greedy capacity sharing and stealing policy to efficiently exchange bandwidth among tasks, minimising the degree of deviation from the ideal system's behaviour caused by inter-application blocking. The proposed capacity exchange protocol (CXP) focus on exchanging extra capacities as early, and not necessarily as fairly, as possible. This loss of optimality is worth the reduced complexity as the protocol's behaviour nevertheless tends to be fair in the long run and outperforms other solutions in highly dynamic scenarios, as demonstrated by extensive simulations.

European Union emissions trading scheme impact on the Spanish electricity price during phase II and phase III implementation

The European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) is a cornerstone of the European Union's policy to combat climate change and its key tool for reducing industrial greenhouse gas emissions cost-effectively. The purpose of the present work is to evaluate the influence of CO2 opportunity cost on the Spanish wholesale electricity price. Our sample includes all Phase II of the EU ETS and the first year of Phase III implementation, from January 2008 to December 2013. A vector error correction model (VECM) is applied to estimate not only long-run equilibrium relations, but also short-run interactions between the electricity price and the fuel (natural gas and coal) and carbon prices. The four commodities prices are modeled as joint endogenous variables with air temperature and renewable energy as exogenous variables. We found a long-run relationship (cointegration) between electricity price, carbon price, and fuel prices. By estimating the dynamic pass-through of carbon price into electricity price for different periods of our sample, it is possible to observe the weakening of the link between carbon and electricity prices as a result from the collapse on CO2 prices, therefore compromising the efficacy of the system to reach proposed environmental goals. This conclusion is in line with the need to shape new policies within the framework of the EU ETS that prevent excessive low prices for carbon over extended periods of time.

Pseudo Phase Plane and Fractional Calculus Modelling of Western Global Economic Downturn

This paper applies Pseudo Phase Plane (PPP) and Fractional Calculus (FC) mathematical tools for modeling world economies. A challenging global rivalry among the largest international economies began in the early 1970s, when the post-war prosperity declined. It went on, up to now. If some worrying threatens may exist actually in terms of possible ambitious military aggression, invasion, or hegemony, countries’ PPP relative positions can tell something on the current global peaceful equilibrium. A global political downturn of the USA on global hegemony in favor of Asian partners is possible, but can still be not accomplished in the next decades. If the 1973 oil chock has represented the beginning of a long-run recession, the PPP analysis of the last four decades (1972–2012) does not conclude for other partners’ global dominance (Russian, Brazil, Japan, and Germany) in reaching high degrees of similarity with the most developed world countries. The synergies of the proposed mathematical tools lead to a better understanding of the dynamics underlying world economies and point towards the estimation of future states based on the memory of each time series.

Fractional State Space Analysis of Economy Systems

This paper examines modern economic growth according to the multidimensional scaling (MDS) method and state space portrait (SSP) analysis. Electing GDP per capita as the main indicator for economic growth and prosperity, the long-run perspective from 1870 to 2010 identifies the main similarities among 34 world partners’ modern economic growth and exemplifies the historical waving mechanics of the largest world economy, the USA. MDS reveals two main clusters among the European countries and their old offshore territories, and SSP identifies the Great Depression as a mild challenge to the American global performance, when compared to the Second World War and the 2008 crisis.

Estudo e Projeto de Reabilitação dos Acessos aos Parques Eólicos da Iberwind

A Iberwind recebeu o aluno estagiário para a realização de um projeto de consultoria técnica focada nos acessos dos seus 31 parques eólicos presentes no território nacional. É apresentada a empresa, bem como todo o processo de construção e desenvolvimento de parques eólicos. O presente relatório de estágio foca-se, maioritariamente, na reabilitação de acessos a parques eólicos, debruçando-se sobre as especialidades de terraplenagens, drenagem e pavimentação, bem como as condicionantes geométricas. Verifica-se que com o passar dos anos, após a construção dos primeiros empreendimentos, começa a denotar-se a deterioração dos acessos aos mesmos. É, por isso, relevante e significativo o trabalho realizado no âmbito do estágio, por forma a avaliar as diversas necessidades de reabilitação e manutenção dos acessos a apresentar soluções globais. O levantamento de campo realizado cobriu todo o portefólio da empresa e documentou a totalidade das patologias relacionadas com as especialidades de pavimentação e drenagem. Executaram-se visitas a todos os parques, acompanhadas pelos operadores dos mesmos, e aliaram-se às mesmas entrevistas aos supervisores de zona com o intuito de aglomerar informação e contextualizar a problemática. Realizou-se uma proposta de reabilitação dos acessos em piores condições, o que levou à adjudicação da obra e acompanhamento de alguns trabalhos por parte do autor no presente ano. O trabalho realizado e detalhadamente documentado permitiu a criação de uma metodologia de inspeção e manutenção a ser implementada nos parques eólicos do grupo, de forma a reduzir custos e otimizar recursos a longo prazo. A metodologia consiste, de forma sintetizada, na inspecção periódica dos acessos de cada parque pelas equipas de campo e a definição das necessidades prioritárias de manutenção e reabilitação dos mesmos de maneira independente.