Long-term price range forecast applied to risk management using regression models

Long-term contractual decisions are the basis of an efficient risk management. However those types of decisions have to be supported with a robust price forecast methodology. This paper reports a different approach for long-term price forecast which tries to give answers to that need. Making use of regression models, the proposed methodology has as main objective to find the maximum and a minimum Market Clearing Price (MCP) for a specific programming period, and with a desired confidence level α. Due to the problem complexity, the meta-heuristic Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) was used to find the best regression parameters and the results compared with the obtained by using a Genetic Algorithm (GA). To validate these models, results from realistic data are presented and discussed in detail.

A short-term risk management tool applied to OMEL electricity market using particle swarm optimization

Short-term risk management is highly dependent on long-term contractual decisions previously established; risk aversion factor of the agent and short-term price forecast accuracy. Trying to give answers to that problem, this paper provides a different approach for short-term risk management on electricity markets. Based on long-term contractual decisions and making use of a price range forecast method developed by the authors, the short-term risk management tool presented here has as main concern to find the optimal spot market strategies that a producer should have for a specific day in function of his risk aversion factor, with the objective to maximize the profits and simultaneously to practice the hedge against price market volatility. Due to the complexity of the optimization problem, the authors make use of Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) to find the optimal solution. Results from realistic data, namely from OMEL electricity market, are presented and discussed in detail.

Genetic algorithm methodology applied to intelligent house control

In recent years the use of several new resources in power systems, such as distributed generation, demand response and more recently electric vehicles, has significantly increased. Power systems aim at lowering operational costs, requiring an adequate energy resources management. In this context, load consumption management plays an important role, being necessary to use optimization strategies to adjust the consumption to the supply profile. These optimization strategies can be integrated in demand response programs. The control of the energy consumption of an intelligent house has the objective of optimizing the load consumption. This paper presents a genetic algorithm approach to manage the consumption of a residential house making use of a SCADA system developed by the authors. Consumption management is done reducing or curtailing loads to keep the power consumption in, or below, a specified energy consumption limit. This limit is determined according to the consumer strategy and taking into account the renewable based micro generation, energy price, supplier solicitations, and consumers’ preferences. The proposed approach is compared with a mixed integer non-linear approach.

Particle swarm optimization applied to integrated demand response resources scheduling

The concept of demand response has a growing importance in the context of the future power systems. Demand response can be seen as a resource like distributed generation, storage, electric vehicles, etc. All these resources require the existence of an infrastructure able to give players the means to operate and use them in an efficient way. This infrastructure implements in practice the smart grid concept, and should accommodate a large number of diverse types of players in the context of a competitive business environment. In this paper, demand response is optimally scheduled jointly with other resources such as distributed generation units and the energy provided by the electricity market, minimizing the operation costs from the point of view of a virtual power player, who manages these resources and supplies the aggregated consumers. The optimal schedule is obtained using two approaches based on particle swarm optimization (with and without mutation) which are compared with a deterministic approach that is used as a reference methodology. A case study with two scenarios implemented in DemSi, a demand Response simulator developed by the authors, evidences the advantages of the use of the proposed particle swarm approaches.

A long-term swarm intelligence hedging tool applied to electricity markets

This paper proposes a swarm intelligence long-term hedging tool to support electricity producers in competitive electricity markets. This tool investigates the long-term hedging opportunities available to electric power producers through the use of contracts with physical (spot and forward) and financial (options) settlement. To find the optimal portfolio the producer risk preference is stated by a utility function (U) expressing the trade-off between the expectation and the variance of the return. Variance estimation and the expected return are based on a forecasted scenario interval determined by a long-term price range forecast model, developed by the authors, whose explanation is outside the scope of this paper. The proposed tool makes use of Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) and its performance has been evaluated by comparing it with a Genetic Algorithm (GA) based approach. To validate the risk management tool a case study, using real price historical data for mainland Spanish market, is presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.

Multi-dimensional scaling applied to histogram-based DNA analysis

This paper aims to study the relationships between chromosomal DNA sequences of twenty species. We propose a methodology combining DNA-based word frequency histograms, correlation methods, and an MDS technique to visualize structural information underlying chromosomes (CRs) and species. Four statistical measures are tested (Minkowski, Cosine, Pearson product-moment, and Kendall τ rank correlations) to analyze the information content of 421 nuclear CRs from twenty species. The proposed methodology is built on mathematical tools and allows the analysis and visualization of very large amounts of stream data, like DNA sequences, with almost no assumptions other than the predefined DNA “word length.” This methodology is able to produce comprehensible three-dimensional visualizations of CR clustering and related spatial and structural patterns. The results of the four test correlation scenarios show that the high-level information clusterings produced by the MDS tool are qualitatively similar, with small variations due to each correlation method characteristics, and that the clusterings are a consequence of the input data and not method’s artifacts.

Comparison between deterministic and meta-heuristic methods applied to ancillary services dispatch

This paper proposes two meta-heuristics (Genetic Algorithm and Evolutionary Particle Swarm Optimization) for solving a 15 bid-based case of Ancillary Services Dispatch in an Electricity Market. A Linear Programming approach is also included for comparison purposes. A test case based on the dispatch of Regulation Down, Regulation Up, Spinning Reserve and Non-Spinning Reserve services is used to demonstrate that the use of meta-heuristics is suitable for solving this kind of optimization problem. Faster execution times and lower computational resources requirements are the most relevant advantages of the used meta-heuristics when compared with the Linear Programming approach.

Image upsampling algorithms applied on Nuclear Medicine: comparision of hqnx and nxSaI algorithms families with two interpolation algorithms - nearest neighbour and bicubic interpolation

Introduction: Image resizing is a normal feature incorporated into the Nuclear Medicine digital imaging. Upsampling is done by manufacturers to adequately fit more the acquired images on the display screen and it is applied when there is a need to increase - or decrease - the total number of pixels. This paper pretends to compare the “hqnx” and the “nxSaI” magnification algorithms with two interpolation algorithms – “nearest neighbor” and “bicubic interpolation” – in the image upsampling operations. Material and Methods: Three distinct Nuclear Medicine images were enlarged 2 and 4 times with the different digital image resizing algorithms (nearest neighbor, bicubic interpolation nxSaI and hqnx). To evaluate the pixel’s changes between the different output images, 3D whole image plot profiles and surface plots were used as an addition to the visual approach in the 4x upsampled images. Results: In the 2x enlarged images the visual differences were not so noteworthy. Although, it was clearly noticed that bicubic interpolation presented the best results. In the 4x enlarged images the differences were significant, with the bicubic interpolated images presenting the best results. Hqnx resized images presented better quality than 4xSaI and nearest neighbor interpolated images, however, its intense “halo effect” affects greatly the definition and boundaries of the image contents. Conclusion: The hqnx and the nxSaI algorithms were designed for images with clear edges and so its use in Nuclear Medicine images is obviously inadequate. Bicubic interpolation seems, from the algorithms studied, the most suitable and its each day wider applications seem to show it, being assumed as a multi-image type efficient algorithm.

Accounting for the dissociating properties of organic chemicals in LCIA: an uncertainty analysis applied to micropollutants in the assessment of freshwater ecotoxicity

In life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) models, the sorption of the ionic fraction of dissociating organic chemicals is not adequately modeled because conventional non-polar partitioning models are applied. Therefore, high uncertainties are expected when modeling the mobility, as well as the bioavailability for uptake by exposed biota and degradation, of dissociating organic chemicals. Alternative regressions that account for the ionized fraction of a molecule to estimate fate parameters were applied to the USEtox model. The most sensitive model parameters in the estimation of ecotoxicological characterization factors (CFs) of micropollutants were evaluated by Monte Carlo analysis in both the default USEtox model and the alternative approach. Negligible differences of CFs values and 95% confidence limits between the two approaches were estimated for direct emissions to the freshwater compartment; however the default USEtox model overestimates CFs and the 95% confidence limits of basic compounds up to three orders and four orders of magnitude, respectively, relatively to the alternative approach for emissions to the agricultural soil compartment. For three emission scenarios, LCIA results show that the default USEtox model overestimates freshwater ecotoxicity impacts for the emission scenarios to agricultural soil by one order of magnitude, and larger confidence limits were estimated, relatively to the alternative approach.

Response surface methodology applied to SPE for the determination of ibuprofen in various types of water samples

Over the last few years, there has been a growing concern about the presence of pharmaceuticals in the environment. The main objective of this study was to develop and validate an SPE method using surface response methodology for the determination of ibuprofen in different types of water samples. The influence of sample pH and sample volume on the ibuprofen recovery was studied. The effect of each studied independent variable is pronounced on the dependent variable (ibuprofen recovery). Good selectivity, extraction efficiency, and precision were achieved using 600 mL of sample volume with the pH adjusted to 2.2. LC with fluorescence detection was employed. The optimized method was applied to 20 water samples from the North and South of Portugal.

Distributed active traction control system applied to the RoboCup middle size league

This work addresses the problem of traction control in mobile wheeled robots in the particular case of the RoboCup Middle Size League (MSL). The slip control problem is formulated using simple friction models for ISePorto Team robots with a differential wheel configuration. Traction was also characterized experimentally in the MSL scenario for relevant game events. This work proposes a hierarchical traction control architecture which relies in local slip detection and control at each wheel, with relevant information being relayed to a higher level responsible for global robot motion control. A dedicated one axis control embedded hardware subsystem allowing complex local control, high frequency current sensing and odometric information procession was developed. This local axis control board is integrated in a distributed system using CAN bus communications. The slipping observer was implemented in the axis control hardware nodes integrated in the ISePorto robots and was used to control and detect loss of for traction. %and to detect the ball in the kicking device. An external vision system was used to perform a qualitative analysis of the slip detection and observer performance results are presented.

Uncertainty analysis based on sensitivity applied to angle-ply composite structures

This article describes a finite element-based formulation for the statistical analysis of the response of stochastic structural composite systems whose material properties are described by random fields. A first-order technique is used to obtain the second-order statistics for the structural response considering means and variances of the displacement and stress fields of plate or shell composite structures. Propagation of uncertainties depends on sensitivities taken as measurement of variation effects. The adjoint variable method is used to obtain the sensitivity matrix. This method is appropriated for composite structures due to the large number of random input parameters. Dominant effects on the stochastic characteristics are studied analyzing the influence of different random parameters. In particular, a study of the anisotropy influence on uncertainties propagation of angle-ply composites is carried out based on the proposed approach.

Design state exploration applied to the development of a remote lab for projectile launch experiments

This paper describes the application of Design State Exploration techniques in the development of a remote lab for projectile motion experiments. The application was enabled by the existence of two independent teams: one composed of a series of internships that started first and another with two grantees that started a few months later. The paper presents evidence on how this approach provided gains in the development process conducted by the second team that benefited from design state exploration studies performed by the first team. This particular aspect is highlighted in relation to the work already presented in the 10th Remote Engineering and Virtual Instrumentation (REV) conference.

Soil erosion after forest fires: evaluation of mitigation measures applied to drainage channels in the northwest of Portugal

The development and implementation of measures which promote the reduction of the impacts of forest fires on soils is imperative and should be part of any strategy for forest and soil preservation and recovery, especially considering the actual scenario of continuous growth in the number of fires and burnt area. Consequently, with the dendrocaustologic reality that has characterized the Portuguese mainland in recent decades, a research project promoted by the Center for the Study of Geography and Spatial Planning (CEGOT) was implemented with the objective of applying several erosion mitigation measures in a burned area of the Peneda-Geres National Park in NW Portugal. This paper therefore seeks to present the measures applied in the study area within the project Soil Protec, relating to triggered channel processes and the results of preliminary observations concerning the evaluation of the effectiveness of erosion mitigation measures implemented, as well as their cost/benefit ratio.