Long-term price range forecast applied to risk management using regression models

Long-term contractual decisions are the basis of an efficient risk management. However those types of decisions have to be supported with a robust price forecast methodology. This paper reports a different approach for long-term price forecast which tries to give answers to that need. Making use of regression models, the proposed methodology has as main objective to find the maximum and a minimum Market Clearing Price (MCP) for a specific programming period, and with a desired confidence level α. Due to the problem complexity, the meta-heuristic Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) was used to find the best regression parameters and the results compared with the obtained by using a Genetic Algorithm (GA). To validate these models, results from realistic data are presented and discussed in detail.

Multi-apprentice learning for meta-heuristics parameter tuning in a multi agent scheduling system

The scheduling problem is considered in complexity theory as a NP-hard combinatorial optimization problem. Meta-heuristics proved to be very useful in the resolution of this class of problems. However, these techniques require parameter tuning which is a very hard task to perform. A Case-based Reasoning module is proposed in order to solve the parameter tuning problem in a Multi-Agent Scheduling System. A computational study is performed in order to evaluate the proposed CBR module performance.

Optimal tuning of fractional controllers using genetic algorithms

This study addresses the optimization of fractional algorithms for the discrete-time control of linear and non-linear systems. The paper starts by analyzing the fundamentals of fractional control systems and genetic algorithms. In a second phase the paper evaluates the problem in an optimization perspective. The results demonstrate the feasibility of the evolutionary strategy and the adaptability to distinct types of systems.

Automated design of microwave discrete tuning differential capacitance circuits in Si-integrated technologies

A genetic algorithm used to design radio-frequency binary-weighted differential switched capacitor arrays (RFDSCAs) is presented in this article. The algorithm provides a set of circuits all having the same maximum performance. This article also describes the design, implementation, and measurements results of a 0.25 lm BiCMOS 3-bit RFDSCA. The experimental results show that the circuit presents the expected performance up to 40 GHz. The similarity between the evolutionary solutions, circuit simulations, and measured results indicates that the genetic synthesis method is a very useful tool for designing optimum performance RFDSCAs.

Automated synthesis procedure of RF discrete tuning differential capacitance circuits

The paper presents a RFDSCA automated synthesis procedure. This algorithm determines several RFDSCA circuits from the top-level system specifications all with the same maximum performance. The genetic synthesis tool optimizes a fitness function proportional to the RFDSCA quality factor and uses the epsiv-concept and maximin sorting scheme to achieve a set of solutions well distributed along a non-dominated front. To confirm the results of the algorithm, three RFDSCAs were simulated in SpectreRF and one of them was implemented and tested. The design used a 0.25 mum BiCMOS process. All the results (synthesized, simulated and measured) are very close, which indicate that the genetic synthesis method is a very useful tool to design optimum performance RFDSCAs.

Optimal fuzzy PID control tuned with genetic algorithms

Fuzzy logic controllers (FLC) are intelligent systems, based on heuristic knowledge, that have been largely applied in numerous areas of everyday life. They can be used to describe a linear or nonlinear system and are suitable when a real system is not known or too difficult to find their model. FLC provide a formal methodology for representing, manipulating and implementing a human heuristic knowledge on how to control a system. These controllers can be seen as artificial decision makers that operate in a closed-loop system, in real time. The main aim of this work was to develop a single optimal fuzzy controller, easily adaptable to a wide range of systems – simple to complex, linear to nonlinear – and able to control all these systems. Due to their efficiency in searching and finding optimal solution for high complexity problems, GAs were used to perform the FLC tuning by finding the best parameters to obtain the best responses. The work was performed using the MATLAB/SIMULINK software. This is a very useful tool that provides an easy way to test and analyse the FLC, the PID and the GAs in the same environment. Therefore, it was proposed a Fuzzy PID controller (FL-PID) type namely, the Fuzzy PD+I. For that, the controller was compared with the classical PID controller tuned with, the heuristic Ziegler-Nichols tuning method, the optimal Zhuang-Atherton tuning method and the GA method itself. The IAE, ISE, ITAE and ITSE criteria, used as the GA fitness functions, were applied to compare the controllers performance used in this work. Overall, and for most systems, the FL-PID results tuned with GAs were very satisfactory. Moreover, in some cases the results were substantially better than for the other PID controllers. The best system responses were obtained with the IAE and ITAE criteria used to tune the FL-PID and PID controllers.