Solar Intensity Forecasting using Artificial Neural Networks and Support Vector Machines

This paper presents several forecasting methodologies based on the application of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Support Vector Machines (SVM), directed to the prediction of the solar radiance intensity. The methodologies differ from each other by using different information in the training of the methods, i.e, different environmental complementary fields such as the wind speed, temperature, and humidity. Additionally, different ways of considering the data series information have been considered. Sensitivity testing has been performed on all methodologies in order to achieve the best parameterizations for the proposed approaches. Results show that the SVM approach using the exponential Radial Basis Function (eRBF) is capable of achieving the best forecasting results, and in half execution time of the ANN based approaches.

Strategic Bidding for Electricity Markets Negotiation Using Support Vector Machines

Energy systems worldwide are complex and challenging environments. Multi-agent based simulation platforms are increasing at a high rate, as they show to be a good option to study many issues related to these systems, as well as the involved players at act in this domain. In this scope the authors’ research group has developed a multi-agent system: MASCEM (Multi- Agent System for Competitive Electricity Markets), which simulates the electricity markets environment. MASCEM is integrated with ALBidS (Adaptive Learning Strategic Bidding System) that works as a decision support system for market players. The ALBidS system allows MASCEM market negotiating players to take the best possible advantages from the market context. This paper presents the application of a Support Vector Machines (SVM) based approach to provide decision support to electricity market players. This strategy is tested and validated by being included in ALBidS and then compared with the application of an Artificial Neural Network, originating promising results. The proposed approach is tested and validated using real electricity markets data from MIBEL - Iberian market operator.

Short-term Wind Speed Forecasting using Support Vector Machines

Wind speed forecasting has been becoming an important field of research to support the electricity industry mainly due to the increasing use of distributed energy sources, largely based on renewable sources. This type of electricity generation is highly dependent on the weather conditions variability, particularly the variability of the wind speed. Therefore, accurate wind power forecasting models are required to the operation and planning of wind plants and power systems. A Support Vector Machines (SVM) model for short-term wind speed is proposed and its performance is evaluated and compared with several artificial neural network (ANN) based approaches. A case study based on a real database regarding 3 years for predicting wind speed at 5 minutes intervals is presented.

Automatic email organization

Introdução Actualmente, as mensagens electrónicas são consideradas um importante meio de comunicação. As mensagens electrónicas – vulgarmente conhecidas como emails – são utilizadas fácil e frequentemente para enviar e receber o mais variado tipo de informação. O seu uso tem diversos fins gerando diariamente um grande número de mensagens e, consequentemente um enorme volume de informação. Este grande volume de informação requer uma constante manipulação das mensagens de forma a manter o conjunto organizado. Tipicamente esta manipulação consiste em organizar as mensagens numa taxonomia. A taxonomia adoptada reflecte os interesses e as preferências particulares do utilizador. Motivação A organização manual de emails é uma actividade morosa e que consome tempo. A optimização deste processo através da implementação de um método automático, tende a melhorar a satisfação do utilizador. Cada vez mais existe a necessidade de encontrar novas soluções para a manipulação de conteúdo digital poupando esforços e custos ao utilizador; esta necessidade, concretamente no âmbito da manipulação de emails, motivou a realização deste trabalho. Hipótese O objectivo principal deste projecto consiste em permitir a organização ad-hoc de emails com um esforço reduzido por parte do utilizador. A metodologia proposta visa organizar os emails num conjunto de categorias, disjuntas, que reflectem as preferências do utilizador. A principal finalidade deste processo é produzir uma organização onde as mensagens sejam classificadas em classes apropriadas requerendo o mínimo número esforço possível por parte do utilizador. Para alcançar os objectivos estipulados, este projecto recorre a técnicas de mineração de texto, em especial categorização automática de texto, e aprendizagem activa. Para reduzir a necessidade de inquirir o utilizador – para etiquetar exemplos de acordo com as categorias desejadas – foi utilizado o algoritmo d-confidence. Processo de organização automática de emails O processo de organizar automaticamente emails é desenvolvido em três fases distintas: indexação, classificação e avaliação. Na primeira fase, fase de indexação, os emails passam por um processo transformativo de limpeza que visa essencialmente gerar uma representação dos emails adequada ao processamento automático. A segunda fase é a fase de classificação. Esta fase recorre ao conjunto de dados resultantes da fase anterior para produzir um modelo de classificação, aplicando-o posteriormente a novos emails. Partindo de uma matriz onde são representados emails, termos e os seus respectivos pesos, e um conjunto de exemplos classificados manualmente, um classificador é gerado a partir de um processo de aprendizagem. O classificador obtido é então aplicado ao conjunto de emails e a classificação de todos os emails é alcançada. O processo de classificação é feito com base num classificador de máquinas de vectores de suporte recorrendo ao algoritmo de aprendizagem activa d-confidence. O algoritmo d-confidence tem como objectivo propor ao utilizador os exemplos mais significativos para etiquetagem. Ao identificar os emails com informação mais relevante para o processo de aprendizagem, diminui-se o número de iterações e consequentemente o esforço exigido por parte dos utilizadores. A terceira e última fase é a fase de avaliação. Nesta fase a performance do processo de classificação e a eficiência do algoritmo d-confidence são avaliadas. O método de avaliação adoptado é o método de validação cruzada denominado 10-fold cross validation. Conclusões O processo de organização automática de emails foi desenvolvido com sucesso, a performance do classificador gerado e do algoritmo d-confidence foi relativamente boa. Em média as categorias apresentam taxas de erro relativamente baixas, a não ser as classes mais genéricas. O esforço exigido pelo utilizador foi reduzido, já que com a utilização do algoritmo d-confidence obteve-se uma taxa de erro próxima do valor final, mesmo com um número de casos etiquetados abaixo daquele que é requerido por um método supervisionado. É importante salientar, que além do processo automático de organização de emails, este projecto foi uma excelente oportunidade para adquirir conhecimento consistente sobre mineração de texto e sobre os processos de classificação automática e recuperação de informação. O estudo de áreas tão interessantes despertou novos interesses que consistem em verdadeiros desafios futuros.

Using data mining techniques to support breast cancer diagnosis

More than ever, there is an increase of the number of decision support methods and computer aided diagnostic systems applied to various areas of medicine. In breast cancer research, many works have been done in order to reduce false-positives when used as a double reading method. In this study, we aimed to present a set of data mining techniques that were applied to approach a decision support system in the area of breast cancer diagnosis. This method is geared to assist clinical practice in identifying mammographic findings such as microcalcifications, masses and even normal tissues, in order to avoid misdiagnosis. In this work a reliable database was used, with 410 images from about 115 patients, containing previous reviews performed by radiologists as microcalcifications, masses and also normal tissue findings. Throughout this work, two feature extraction techniques were used: the gray level co-occurrence matrix and the gray level run length matrix. For classification purposes, we considered various scenarios according to different distinct patterns of injuries and several classifiers in order to distinguish the best performance in each case described. The many classifiers used were Naïve Bayes, Support Vector Machines, k-nearest Neighbors and Decision Trees (J48 and Random Forests). The results in distinguishing mammographic findings revealed great percentages of PPV and very good accuracy values. Furthermore, it also presented other related results of classification of breast density and BI-RADS® scale. The best predictive method found for all tested groups was the Random Forest classifier, and the best performance has been achieved through the distinction of microcalcifications. The conclusions based on the several tested scenarios represent a new perspective in breast cancer diagnosis using data mining techniques.

Using neural networks and support vector regression to relate marchetti dilatometer test parameters and maximum shear modulus

In the last two decades, small strain shear modulus became one of the most important geotechnical parameters to characterize soil stiffness. Finite element analysis have shown that in-situ stiffness of soils and rocks is much higher than what was previously thought and that stress-strain behaviour of these materials is non-linear in most cases with small strain levels, especially in the ground around retaining walls, foundations and tunnels, typically in the order of 10−2 to 10−4 of strain. Although the best approach to estimate shear modulus seems to be based in measuring seismic wave velocities, deriving the parameter through correlations with in-situ tests is usually considered very useful for design practice.The use of Neural Networks for modeling systems has been widespread, in particular within areas where the great amount of available data and the complexity of the systems keeps the problem very unfriendly to treat following traditional data analysis methodologies. In this work, the use of Neural Networks and Support Vector Regression is proposed to estimate small strain shear modulus for sedimentary soils from the basic or intermediate parameters derived from Marchetti Dilatometer Test. The results are discussed and compared with some of the most common available methodologies for this evaluation.

Using neural networks and support vector regression to relate marchetti dilatometer test parameters and maximum shear modulus

In the last two decades, small strain shear modulus became one of the most important geotechnical parameters to characterize soil stiffness. Finite element analysis have shown that in-situ stiffness of soils and rocks is much higher than what was previously thought and that stress-strain behaviour of these materials is non-linear in most cases with small strain levels, especially in the ground around retaining walls, foundations and tunnels, typically in the order of 10−2 to 10−4 of strain. Although the best approach to estimate shear modulus seems to be based in measuring seismic wave velocities, deriving the parameter through correlations with in-situ tests is usually considered very useful for design practice.The use of Neural Networks for modeling systems has been widespread, in particular within areas where the great amount of available data and the complexity of the systems keeps the problem very unfriendly to treat following traditional data analysis methodologies. In this work, the use of Neural Networks and Support Vector Regression is proposed to estimate small strain shear modulus for sedimentary soils from the basic or intermediate parameters derived from Marchetti Dilatometer Test. The results are discussed and compared with some of the most common available methodologies for this evaluation.

Interface caligráfica de escrita no ar

Na atualidade, está a emergir um novo paradigma de interação, designado por Natural User Interface (NUI) para reconhecimento de gestos produzidos com o corpo do utilizador. O dispositivo de interação Microsoft Kinect foi inicialmente concebido para controlo de videojogos, para a consola Xbox360. Este dispositivo demonstra ser uma aposta viável para explorar outras áreas, como a do apoio ao processo de ensino e de aprendizagem para crianças do ensino básico. O protótipo desenvolvido visa definir um modo de interação baseado no desenho de letras no ar, e realizar a interpretação dos símbolos desenhados, usando os reconhecedores de padrões Kernel Discriminant Analysis (KDA), Support Vector Machines (SVM) e $N. O desenvolvimento deste projeto baseou-se no estudo dos diferentes dispositivos NUI disponíveis no mercado, bibliotecas de desenvolvimento NUI para este tipo de dispositivos e algoritmos de reconhecimento de padrões. Com base nos dois elementos iniciais, foi possível obter uma visão mais concreta de qual o hardware e software disponíveis indicados à persecução do objetivo pretendido. O reconhecimento de padrões constitui um tema bastante extenso e complexo, de modo que foi necessária a seleção de um conjunto limitado deste tipo de algoritmos, realizando os respetivos testes por forma a determinar qual o que melhor se adequava ao objetivo pretendido. Aplicando as mesmas condições aos três algoritmos de reconhecimento de padrões permitiu avaliar as suas capacidades e determinar o $N como o que apresentou maior eficácia no reconhecimento. Por último, tentou-se averiguar a viabilidade do protótipo desenvolvido, tendo sido testado num universo de elementos de duas faixas etárias para determinar a capacidade de adaptação e aprendizagem destes dois grupos. Neste estudo, constatou-se um melhor desempenho inicial ao modo de interação do grupo de idade mais avançada. Contudo, o grupo mais jovem foi revelando uma evolutiva capacidade de adaptação a este modo de interação melhorando progressivamente os resultados.

Tradutor da língua gestual portuguesa modelo de tradução bidireccional

O projeto tem como objetivo desenvolver e avaliar um modelo que facilita o acesso para pessoas surdas ou com deficiência auditiva, o acesso ao conteúdo digital - em particular o conteúdo educacional e objetos de aprendizagem – a criação de condições para uma maior inclusão social de surdos e deficientes auditivos. Pretende-se criar um modelo bidirecional, em que permite a pessoas com deficiências auditivas, possam se comunicar com outras pessoas, com a tradução da Língua Gestual Portuguesa (LGP) para a Língua Portuguesa (LP) e que outras pessoas não portadoras de qualquer deficiência auditiva possam por sua vez comunicar com os surdos ou deficientes auditivos através da tradução da LP para a LGP. Há um conjunto de técnicas que poderíamos nos apoiar para desenvolver o modelo e implementar a API de tradução da LGP em LP. Muitos estudos são feitos com base nos modelos escondidos de Markov (HMM) para efetuar o reconhecimento. Recentemente os estudos estão a caminhar para o uso de técnicas como o “Dynamic Time Warping” (DTW), que tem tido mais sucesso do que outras técnicas em termos de performance e de precisão. Neste projeto optamos por desenvolver a API e o Modelo, com base na técnica de aprendizagem Support Vector Machines (SVM) por ser uma técnica simples de implementar e com bons resultados demonstrados em reconhecimento de padrões. Os resultados obtidos utilizando esta técnica de aprendizagem foram bastante ótimos, como iremos descrever no decorrer do capítulo 4, mesmo sabendo que utilizamos dois dispositivos para capturar dados de descrição de cada gesto. Toda esta tese integra-se no âmbito do projeto científico/ investigação a decorrer no grupo de investigação GILT, sob a coordenação da professora Paula Escudeiro e suportado pela Fundação para Ciência e Tecnologia (FCT).

Modelo de representação de texto mais adequado à classificação

Mestrado em Engenharia Informática

A Clinical Support System Based on Quality of Life Estimation

Quality of life is a concept influenced by social, economic, psychological, spiritual or medical state factors. More specifically, the perceived quality of an individual's daily life is an assessment of their well-being or lack of it. In this context, information technologies may help on the management of services for healthcare of chronic patients such as estimating the patient quality of life and helping the medical staff to take appropriate measures to increase each patient quality of life. This paper describes a Quality of Life estimation system developed using information technologies and the application of data mining algorithms to access the information of clinical data of patients with cancer from Otorhinolaryngology and Head and Neck services of an oncology institution. The system was evaluated with a sample composed of 3013 patients. The results achieved show that there are variables that may be significant predictors for the Quality of Life of the patient: years of smoking (p value 0.049) and size of the tumor (p value < 0.001). In order to assign the variables to the classification of the quality of life the best accuracy was obtained by applying the John Platt's sequential minimal optimization algorithm for training a support vector classifier. In conclusion data mining techniques allow having access to patients additional information helping the physicians to be able to know the quality of life and produce a well-informed clinical decision.

Using data mining techniques to support DR programs definition in smart grids

In recent years, Power Systems (PS) have experimented many changes in their operation. The introduction of new players managing Distributed Generation (DG) units, and the existence of new Demand Response (DR) programs make the control of the system a more complex problem and allow a more flexible management. An intelligent resource management in the context of smart grids is of huge important so that smart grids functions are assured. This paper proposes a new methodology to support system operators and/or Virtual Power Players (VPPs) to determine effective and efficient DR programs that can be put into practice. This method is based on the use of data mining techniques applied to a database which is obtained for a large set of operation scenarios. The paper includes a case study based on 27,000 scenarios considering a diversity of distributed resources in a 32 bus distribution network.

Position paper on time and event-triggered communication services in the context of e-manufacturing

Modern factories are complex systems where advances in networking and information technologies are opening new ways towards higher efficiency. Such move is being driven by market rules with ever-increasing competition levels, in search for faster time-to-market, improved process yield, non-stop operations, flexible manufacturing and tighter supply-chain coupling. All these aims present a common requirement, i.e. a realtime flow of information, from the plant-floor up to the management, maintenance, suppliers and clients, to support accurate monitoring and control of the factory. This stresses the importance achieved by the communication infrastructure in modern manufacturing industry. This paper presents the authors view concerning the current trends in modern factory communication systems. It addresses the problems of seamlessly integrating different information flows with diverse requirements, mainly in terms of timeliness. In this aspect, the debate between event-triggered and time-triggered communication is revisited as well as the joint support for both types of traffic. Finally, a view of where factory communication systems are moving to is also presented, showing the impact of open and widely available technologies.

Towards comparable simulations of cooperating objects and wireless sensor networks

Simulators are indispensable tools to support the development and testing of cooperating objects such as wireless sensor networks (WSN). However, it is often not possible to compare the results of different simulation tools. Thus, the goal of this paper is the specification of a generic simulation platform for cooperating objects. We propose a platform that consists of a set of simulators that together fulfill desired simulator properties. We show that to achieve comparable results the use of a common specification language for the software-under-test is not feasible. Instead, we argue that using common input formats for the simulated environment and common output formats for the results is useful. This again motivates that a simulation tool consisting of a set of existing simulators that are able to use common scenario-input and can produce common output which will bring us a step closer to the vision of achieving comparable simulation results.

A survey of technologies and applications for climbing robots locomotion and adhesion

The interest in the development of climbing robots has grown rapidly in the last years. Climbing robots are useful devices that can be adopted in a variety of applications, such as maintenance and inspection in the process and construction industries. These systems are mainly adopted in places where direct access by a human operator is very expensive, because of the need for scaffolding, or very dangerous, due to the presence of an hostile environment. The main motivations are to increase the operation efficiency, by eliminating the costly assembly of scaffolding, or to protect human health and safety in hazardous tasks. Several climbing robots have already been developed, and other are under development, for applications ranging from cleaning to inspection of difficult to reach constructions. A wall climbing robot should not only be light, but also have large payload, so that it may reduce excessive adhesion forces and carry instrumentations during navigation. These machines should be capable of travelling over different types of surfaces, with different inclinations, such as floors, walls, or ceilings, and to walk between such surfaces (Elliot et al. (2006); Sattar et al. (2002)). Furthermore, they should be able of adapting and reconfiguring for various environment conditions and to be self-contained. Up to now, considerable research was devoted to these machines and various types of experimental models were already proposed (according to Chen et al. (2006), over 200 prototypes aimed at such applications had been developed in the world by the year 2006). However, we have to notice that the application of climbing robots is still limited. Apart from a couple successful industrialized products, most are only prototypes and few of them can be found in common use due to unsatisfactory performance in on-site tests (regarding aspects such as their speed, cost and reliability). Chen et al. (2006) present the main design problems affecting the system performance of climbing robots and also suggest solutions to these problems. The major two issues in the design of wall climbing robots are their locomotion and adhesion methods. With respect to the locomotion type, four types are often considered: the crawler, the wheeled, the legged and the propulsion robots. Although the crawler type is able to move relatively faster, it is not adequate to be applied in rough environments. On the other hand, the legged type easily copes with obstacles found in the environment, whereas generally its speed is lower and requires complex control systems. Regarding the adhesion to the surface, the robots should be able to produce a secure gripping force using a light-weight mechanism. The adhesion method is generally classified into four groups: suction force, magnetic, gripping to the surface and thrust force type. Nevertheless, recently new methods for assuring the adhesion, based in biological findings, were proposed. The vacuum type principle is light and easy to control though it presents the problem of supplying compressed air. An alternative, with costs in terms of weight, is the adoption of a vacuum pump. The magnetic type principle implies heavy actuators and is used only for ferromagnetic surfaces. The thrust force type robots make use of the forces developed by thrusters to adhere to the surfaces, but are used in very restricted and specific applications. Bearing these facts in mind, this chapter presents a survey of different applications and technologies adopted for the implementation of climbing robots locomotion and adhesion to surfaces, focusing on the new technologies that are recently being developed to fulfill these objectives. The chapter is organized as follows. Section two presents several applications of climbing robots. Sections three and four present the main locomotion principles, and the main "conventional" technologies for adhering to surfaces, respectively. Section five describes recent biological inspired technologies for robot adhesion to surfaces. Section six introduces several new architectures for climbing robots. Finally, section seven outlines the main conclusions.