Memória de longo prazo nos retornos acionistas dos índices de referência da euronext, implicações para a hipótese de mercados eficientes e contributo fractal para aperfeiçoamento do capital asset pricing model

Não existe uma definição única de processo de memória de longo prazo. Esse processo é geralmente definido como uma série que possui um correlograma decaindo lentamente ou um espectro infinito de frequência zero. Também se refere que uma série com tal propriedade é caracterizada pela dependência a longo prazo e por não periódicos ciclos longos, ou que essa característica descreve a estrutura de correlação de uma série de longos desfasamentos ou que é convencionalmente expressa em termos do declínio da lei-potência da função auto-covariância. O interesse crescente da investigação internacional no aprofundamento do tema é justificado pela procura de um melhor entendimento da natureza dinâmica das séries temporais dos preços dos ativos financeiros. Em primeiro lugar, a falta de consistência entre os resultados reclama novos estudos e a utilização de várias metodologias complementares. Em segundo lugar, a confirmação de processos de memória longa tem implicações relevantes ao nível da (1) modelação teórica e econométrica (i.e., dos modelos martingale de preços e das regras técnicas de negociação), (2) dos testes estatísticos aos modelos de equilíbrio e avaliação, (3) das decisões ótimas de consumo / poupança e de portefólio e (4) da medição de eficiência e racionalidade. Em terceiro lugar, ainda permanecem questões científicas empíricas sobre a identificação do modelo geral teórico de mercado mais adequado para modelar a difusão das séries. Em quarto lugar, aos reguladores e gestores de risco importa saber se existem mercados persistentes e, por isso, ineficientes, que, portanto, possam produzir retornos anormais. O objetivo do trabalho de investigação da dissertação é duplo. Por um lado, pretende proporcionar conhecimento adicional para o debate da memória de longo prazo, debruçando-se sobre o comportamento das séries diárias de retornos dos principais índices acionistas da EURONEXT. Por outro lado, pretende contribuir para o aperfeiçoamento do capital asset pricing model CAPM, considerando uma medida de risco alternativa capaz de ultrapassar os constrangimentos da hipótese de mercado eficiente EMH na presença de séries financeiras com processos sem incrementos independentes e identicamente distribuídos (i.i.d.). O estudo empírico indica a possibilidade de utilização alternativa das obrigações do tesouro (OT’s) com maturidade de longo prazo no cálculo dos retornos do mercado, dado que o seu comportamento nos mercados de dívida soberana reflete a confiança dos investidores nas condições financeiras dos Estados e mede a forma como avaliam as respetiva economias com base no desempenho da generalidade dos seus ativos. Embora o modelo de difusão de preços definido pelo movimento Browniano geométrico gBm alegue proporcionar um bom ajustamento das séries temporais financeiras, os seus pressupostos de normalidade, estacionariedade e independência das inovações residuais são adulterados pelos dados empíricos analisados. Por isso, na procura de evidências sobre a propriedade de memória longa nos mercados recorre-se à rescaled-range analysis R/S e à detrended fluctuation analysis DFA, sob abordagem do movimento Browniano fracionário fBm, para estimar o expoente Hurst H em relação às séries de dados completas e para calcular o expoente Hurst “local” H t em janelas móveis. Complementarmente, são realizados testes estatísticos de hipóteses através do rescaled-range tests R/S , do modified rescaled-range test M - R/S e do fractional differencing test GPH. Em termos de uma conclusão única a partir de todos os métodos sobre a natureza da dependência para o mercado acionista em geral, os resultados empíricos são inconclusivos. Isso quer dizer que o grau de memória de longo prazo e, assim, qualquer classificação, depende de cada mercado particular. No entanto, os resultados gerais maioritariamente positivos suportam a presença de memória longa, sob a forma de persistência, nos retornos acionistas da Bélgica, Holanda e Portugal. Isto sugere que estes mercados estão mais sujeitos a maior previsibilidade (“efeito José”), mas também a tendências que podem ser inesperadamente interrompidas por descontinuidades (“efeito Noé”), e, por isso, tendem a ser mais arriscados para negociar. Apesar da evidência de dinâmica fractal ter suporte estatístico fraco, em sintonia com a maior parte dos estudos internacionais, refuta a hipótese de passeio aleatório com incrementos i.i.d., que é a base da EMH na sua forma fraca. Atendendo a isso, propõem-se contributos para aperfeiçoamento do CAPM, através da proposta de uma nova fractal capital market line FCML e de uma nova fractal security market line FSML. A nova proposta sugere que o elemento de risco (para o mercado e para um ativo) seja dado pelo expoente H de Hurst para desfasamentos de longo prazo dos retornos acionistas. O expoente H mede o grau de memória de longo prazo nos índices acionistas, quer quando as séries de retornos seguem um processo i.i.d. não correlacionado, descrito pelo gBm(em que H = 0,5 , confirmando- se a EMH e adequando-se o CAPM), quer quando seguem um processo com dependência estatística, descrito pelo fBm(em que H é diferente de 0,5, rejeitando-se a EMH e desadequando-se o CAPM). A vantagem da FCML e da FSML é que a medida de memória de longo prazo, definida por H, é a referência adequada para traduzir o risco em modelos que possam ser aplicados a séries de dados que sigam processos i.i.d. e processos com dependência não linear. Então, estas formulações contemplam a EMH como um caso particular possível.

Improving the reliability of WiDom in a single broadcast domain

WiDom is a previously proposed prioritized medium access control protocol for wireless channels. We present a modification to this protocol in order to improve its reliability. This modification has similarities with cooperative relaying schemes, but, in our protocol, all nodes can relay a carrier wave. The preliminary evaluation shows that, under transmission errors, a significant reduction on the number of failed tournaments can be achieved.

Using a cohesive damage model to predict the tensile behaviour of CFRP single-strap repairs

This work addresses both experimental and numerical analyses regarding the tensile behaviour of CFRP single-strap repairs. Two fundamental geometrical parameters were studied: overlap length and patch thickness. The numerical model used ABAQUS® software and a developed cohesive mixed-mode damage model adequate for ductile adhesives, and implemented within interface finite elements. Stress analyses and strength predictions were carried out. Experimental and numerical comparisons were performed on failure modes, failure load and equivalent stiffness of the repair. Good correlation was found between experimental and numerical results, showing that the proposed model can be successfully applied to bonded joints or repairs.

A Multi-DAG Model for Real-Time Parallel Applications with Conditional Execution

The 30th ACM/SIGAPP Symposium On Applied Computing (SAC 2015). 13 to 17, Apr, 2015, Embedded Systems. Salamanca, Spain.

Enabling inter-domain transactions in bridge-based hybrid wired/wireless PROFIBUS networks

The marriage of emerging information technologies with control technologies is a major driving force that, in the context of the factory-floor, is creating an enormous eagerness for extending the capabilities of currently available fieldbus networks to cover functionalities not considered up to a recent past. Providing wireless capabilities to such type of communication networks is a big share of that effort. The RFieldbus European project is just one example, where PROFIBUS was provided with suitable extensions for implementing hybrid wired/wireless communication systems. In RFieldbus, interoperability between wired and wireless components is achieved by the use specific intermediate networking systems operating as repeaters, thus creating a single logical ring (SLR) network. The main advantage of the SLR approach is that the effort for protocol extensions is not significant. However, a multiple logical ring (MLR) approach provides traffic and error isolation between different network segments. This concept was introduced in, where an approach for a bridge-based architecture was briefly outlined. This paper will focus on the details of the inter-Domain Protocol (IDP), which is responsible for handling transactions between different network domains (wired or wireless) running the PROFIBUS protocol.

Application mapping in NoC-Based many-cores

Many-core platforms based on Network-on-Chip (NoC [Benini and De Micheli 2002]) present an emerging technology in the real-time embedded domain. Although the idea to group the applications previously executed on separated single-core devices, and accommodate them on an individual many-core chip offers various options for power savings, cost reductions and contributes to the overall system flexibility, its implementation is a non-trivial task. In this paper we address the issue of application mapping onto a NoCbased many-core platform when considering fundamentals and trends of current many-core operating systems, specifically, we elaborate on a limited migrative application model encompassing a message-passing paradigm as a communication primitive. As the main contribution, we formulate the problem of real-time application mapping, and propose a three-stage process to efficiently solve it. Through analysis it is assured that derived solutions guarantee the fulfilment of posed time constraints regarding worst-case communication latencies, and at the same time provide an environment to perform load balancing for e.g. thermal, energy, fault tolerance or performance reasons.We also propose several constraints regarding the topological structure of the application mapping, as well as the inter- and intra-application communication patterns, which efficiently solve the issues of pessimism and/or intractability when performing the analysis.

Scalable data acquisition for densely instrumented cyber-physical systems

Consider the problem of designing an algorithm for acquiring sensor readings. Consider specifically the problem of obtaining an approximate representation of sensor readings where (i) sensor readings originate from different sensor nodes, (ii) the number of sensor nodes is very large, (iii) all sensor nodes are deployed in a small area (dense network) and (iv) all sensor nodes communicate over a communication medium where at most one node can transmit at a time (a single broadcast domain). We present an efficient algorithm for this problem, and our novel algorithm has two desired properties: (i) it obtains an interpolation based on all sensor readings and (ii) it is scalable, that is, its time-complexity is independent of the number of sensor nodes. Achieving these two properties is possible thanks to the close interlinking of the information processing algorithm, the communication system and a model of the physical world.

A parallel programming model for ada

Over the last three decades, computer architects have been able to achieve an increase in performance for single processors by, e.g., increasing clock speed, introducing cache memories and using instruction level parallelism. However, because of power consumption and heat dissipation constraints, this trend is going to cease. In recent times, hardware engineers have instead moved to new chip architectures with multiple processor cores on a single chip. With multi-core processors, applications can complete more total work than with one core alone. To take advantage of multi-core processors, parallel programming models are proposed as promising solutions for more effectively using multi-core processors. This paper discusses some of the existent models and frameworks for parallel programming, leading to outline a draft parallel programming model for Ada.

Optimization study of hybrid spot-welded/bonded single-lap joints

Joining of components with structural adhesives is currently one of the most widespread techniques for advanced structures (e.g., aerospace or aeronautical). Adhesive bonding does not involve drilling operations and it distributes the load over a larger area than mechanical joints. However, peak stresses tend to develop near the overlap edges because of differential straining of the adherends and load asymmetry. As a result, premature failures can be expected, especially for brittle adhesives. Moreover, bonded joints are very sensitive to the surface treatment of the material, service temperature, humidity and ageing. To surpass these limitations, the combination of adhesive bonding with spot-welding is a choice to be considered, adding a few advantages like superior static strength and stiffness, higher peeling and fatigue strength and easier fabrication, as fixtures during the adhesive curing are not needed. The experimental and numerical study presented here evaluates hybrid spot-welded/bonded single-lap joints in comparison with the purely spot-welded and bonded equivalents. A parametric study on the overlap length (LO) allowed achieving different strength advantages, up to 58% compared to spot-welded joints and 24% over bonded joints. The Finite Element Method (FEM) and Cohesive Zone Models (CZM) for damage growth were also tested in Abaqus® to evaluate this technique for strength prediction, showing accurate estimations for all kinds of joints.

A sensitivity study of the WRF model in wind simulation for an area of high wind energy

The performance of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model in wind simulation was evaluated under different numerical and physical options for an area of Portugal, located in complex terrain and characterized by its significant wind energy resource. The grid nudging and integration time of the simulations were the tested numerical options. Since the goal is to simulate the near-surface wind, the physical parameterization schemes regarding the boundary layer were the ones under evaluation. Also, the influences of the local terrain complexity and simulation domain resolution on the model results were also studied. Data from three wind measuring stations located within the chosen area were compared with the model results, in terms of Root Mean Square Error, Standard Deviation Error and Bias. Wind speed histograms, occurrences and energy wind roses were also used for model evaluation. Globally, the model accurately reproduced the local wind regime, despite a significant underestimation of the wind speed. The wind direction is reasonably simulated by the model especially in wind regimes where there is a clear dominant sector, but in the presence of low wind speeds the characterization of the wind direction (observed and simulated) is very subjective and led to higher deviations between simulations and observations. Within the tested options, results show that the use of grid nudging in simulations that should not exceed an integration time of 2 days is the best numerical configuration, and the parameterization set composed by the physical schemes MM5–Yonsei University–Noah are the most suitable for this site. Results were poorer in sites with higher terrain complexity, mainly due to limitations of the terrain data supplied to the model. The increase of the simulation domain resolution alone is not enough to significantly improve the model performance. Results suggest that error minimization in the wind simulation can be achieved by testing and choosing a suitable numerical and physical configuration for the region of interest together with the use of high resolution terrain data, if available.

Mechanical characterization of polyhydroxyalkanoate and poly (lactic acid) blends

In this work, the mechanical behavior of polyhyroxyalkanoate (PHA)/poly(lactic acid) (PLA) blends is investigated in a wide range of compositions. The mechanical properties can be optimized by varying the PHA contents of the blend. The flexural and tensile properties were estimated by different models: the rule of mixtures, Kerner–Uemura–Takayanagi (KUT) model, Nicolai–Narkis model and Béla–Pukánsky model. This study was aimed at investigating the adhesion between the two material phases. The results anticipate a good adhesion between both phases. Nevertheless, for low levels of incorporation of PHA (up to 30%), where PLA is expectantly the matrix, the experimental data seem to deviate from the perfect adhesion models, suggesting a decrease in the adhesion between both polymeric phases when PHA is the disperse phase. For the tensile modulus, a linear relationship is found, following the rules of mixtures (or a KUT model with perfect adhesion between phases) denoting a good adhesion between the phases over the composition range. The incorporation of PHA in the blend leads to a decrease in the flexural modulus but, at the same time, increases the tensile modulus. The impact energy of the blends varies more than 157% over the entire composition. For blends with PHA weight fraction lower than 50%, the impact strength of the blend is higher than the pure base polymers. The highest synergetic effect is found when the PLA is the matrix and the PHA is the disperse phase for the blend PHA/PLA of 30/70. The second maximum is found for the inverse composition of 70/30. PLA has a heat-deflection temperature (HDT) substantially lower than PHA. For the blends, the HDT increases with the increment in the percentage of the incorporation of PHA. With up to 50% PHA (PLA as matrix), the HDT is practically constant and equal to PLA value. Above this point (PHA matrix), the HDT of the polymer blends increases linearly with the percentage of addition of PHA.

Fractional-order impulse response of the respiratory system

This paper presents the measurement, frequency-response modeling and identification, and the corresponding impulse time response of the human respiratory impedance and admittance. The investigated adult patient groups were healthy, diagnosed with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and kyphoscoliosis, respectively. The investigated children patient groups were healthy, diagnosed with asthma and cystic fibrosis, respectively. Fractional order (FO) models are identified on the measured impedance to quantify the respiratory mechanical properties. Two methods are presented for obtaining and simulating the time-domain impulse response from FO models of the respiratory admittance: (i) the classical pole-zero interpolation proposed by Oustaloup in the early 90s, and (ii) the inverse discrete Fourier Transform (DFT). The results of the identified FO models for the respiratory admittance are presented by means of their average values for each group of patients. Consequently, the impulse time response calculated from the frequency response of the averaged FO models is given by means of the two methods mentioned above. Our results indicate that both methods provide similar impulse response data. However, we suggest that the inverse DFT is a more suitable alternative to the high order transfer functions obtained using the classical Oustaloup filter. Additionally, a power law model is fitted on the impulse response data, emphasizing the intrinsic fractal dynamics of the respiratory system.

Numerical and experimental study of tensile strength of single and double-strap repairs

Adhesive bonding as a joining or repair method has a wide application in many industries. Repairs with bonded patches are often carried out to re-establish the stiffness at critical regions or spots of corrosion and/or fatigue cracks. Single and double-strap repairs (SS and DS, respectively) are a viable option for repairing. For the SS repairs, a patch is adhesively-bonded on one of the structure faces. SS repairs are easy to execute, but the load eccentricity leads to peel peak stresses at the overlap edges. DS repairs involve the use of two patches, one on each face of the structure. These are more efficient than SS repairs, due to the doubling of the bonding area and suppression of the transverse deflection of the adherends. Shear stresses also become more uniform as a result of smaller differential straining. The experimental and Finite Element (FE) study presented here for strength prediction and design optimization of bonded repairs includes SS and DS solutions with different values of overlap length (LO). The examined values of LO include 10, 20 and 30 mm. The failure strengths of the SS and DS repairs were compared with FE results by using the Abaqus® FE software. A Cohesive Zone Model (CZM) with a triangular shape in pure tensile and shear modes, including the mixed-mode possibility for crack growth, was used to simulate fracture of the adhesive layer. A good agreement was found between the experiments and the FE simulations on the failure modes, elastic stiffness and strength of the repairs, showing the effectiveness and applicability of the proposed FE technique in predicting strength of bonded repairs. Furthermore, some optimization principles were proposed to repair structures with adhesively-bonded patches that will allow repair designers to effectively design bonded repairs.

Analysis of the domain of applicability of an algorithm for a resources system selection problem for Distributed/Agile/Virtual Enterprises integration

The process of resources systems selection takes an important part in Distributed/Agile/Virtual Enterprises (D/A/V Es) integration. However, the resources systems selection is still a difficult matter to solve in a D/A/VE, as it is pointed out in this paper. Globally, we can say that the selection problem has been equated from different aspects, originating different kinds of models/algorithms to solve it. In order to assist the development of a web prototype tool (broker tool), intelligent and flexible, that integrates all the selection model activities and tools, and with the capacity to adequate to each D/A/V E project or instance (this is the major goal of our final project), we intend in this paper to show: a formulation of a kind of resources selection problem and the limitations of the algorithms proposed to solve it. We formulate a particular case of the problem as an integer programming, which is solved using simplex and branch and bound algorithms, and identify their performance limitations (in terms of processing time) based on simulation results. These limitations depend on the number of processing tasks and on the number of pre-selected resources per processing tasks, defining the domain of applicability of the algorithms for the problem studied. The limitations detected open the necessity of the application of other kind of algorithms (approximate solution algorithms) outside the domain of applicability founded for the algorithms simulated. However, for a broker tool it is very important the knowledge of algorithms limitations, in order to, based on problem features, develop and select the most suitable algorithm that guarantees a good performance.

Buckling strength of adhesively-bonded single and double-strap repairs on carbon-epoxy structures

This work reports on an experimental and finite element method (FEM) parametric study of adhesively-bonded single and double-strap repairs on carbon-epoxy structures under buckling unrestrained compression. The influence of the overlap length and patch thickness was evaluated. This loading gains a particular significance from the additional characteristic mechanisms of structures under compression, such as fibres microbuckling, for buckling restrained structures, or global buckling of the assembly, if no transverse restriction exists. The FEM analysis is based on the use of cohesive elements including mixed-mode criteria to simulate a cohesive fracture of the adhesive layer. Trapezoidal laws in pure modes I and II were used to account for the ductility of most structural adhesives. These laws were estimated for the adhesive used from double cantilever beam (DCB) and end-notched flexure (ENF) tests, respectively, using an inverse technique. The pure mode III cohesive law was equalled to the pure mode II one. Compression failure in the laminates was predicted using a stress-based criterion. The accurate FEM predictions open a good prospect for the reduction of the extensive experimentation in the design of carbon-epoxy repairs. Design principles were also established for these repairs under buckling.