Digitalização das promoções de vendas e email marketing

Dissertação de Mestrado apresentado ao Instituto de Contabilidade e Administração do Porto para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Marketing Digital, sob orientação de Professor Doutor António Correia de Barros

From antimicrobial agents to health promotion

A emergência de multiresistência apresentada por microrganismos é um dos grandes desafios que enfrentam actualmente os profissionais de Saúde e a população em geral. Os factores que contribuem para o desenvolvimento de resistência a antibióticos na comunidade podem ser categorizados como comportamentais ou ambientais/políticas. O objectivo deste trabalho foi caracterizar a situação actual na visão dos Pais de alunos do pré-escolar e 1º ciclo. De modo a avaliar as necessidades de intervenção e as actividades a serem desenvolvidas, um instrumento para estudar os hábitos e comportamentos adoptados na utilização de antibióticos, foi adaptado, validado e aplicado numa amostra piloto.

Osteoporotic hip fractures: Bisphosphonates sales and observed turning point in trend. A population-based retrospective study

The aim is to examine the temporal trends of hip fracture incidence in Portugal by sex and age groups, and explore the relation with anti-osteoporotic medication. From the National Hospital Discharge Database, we selected from 1st January 2000 to 31st December 2008, 77,083 hospital admissions (77.4% women) caused by osteoporotic hip fractures (low energy, patients over 49 years-age), with diagnosis codes 820.x of ICD 9-CM. The 2001 Portuguese population was used as standard to calculate direct age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) (100,000 inhabitants). Generalized additive and linear models were used to evaluate and quantify temporal trends of age specific rates (AR), by sex. We identified 2003 as a turning point in the trend of ASIR of hip fractures in women. After 2003, the ASIR in women decreased on average by 10.3 cases/100,000 inhabitants, 95% CI (− 15.7 to − 4.8), per 100,000 anti-osteoporotic medication packages sold. For women aged 65–69 and 75–79 we identified the same turning point. However, for women aged over 80, the year 2004 marked a change in the trend, from an increase to a decrease. Among the population aged 70–74 a linear decrease of incidence rate (95% CI) was observed in both sexes, higher for women: − 28.0% (− 36.2 to − 19.5) change vs − 18.8%, (− 32.6 to − 2.3). The abrupt turning point in the trend of ASIR of hip fractures in women is compatible with an intervention, such as a medication. The trends were different according to gender and age group, but compatible with the pattern of bisphosphonates sales.

Performance of state space and ARIMA models for consumer retail sales forecasting

Forecasting future sales is one of the most important issues that is beyond all strategic and planning decisions in effective operations of retail businesses. For profitable retail businesses, accurate demand forecasting is crucial in organizing and planning production, purchasing, transportation and labor force. Retail sales series belong to a special type of time series that typically contain trend and seasonal patterns, presenting challenges in developing effective forecasting models. This work compares the forecasting performance of state space models and ARIMA models. The forecasting performance is demonstrated through a case study of retail sales of five different categories of women footwear: Boots, Booties, Flats, Sandals and Shoes. On both methodologies the model with the minimum value of Akaike's Information Criteria for the in-sample period was selected from all admissible models for further evaluation in the out-of-sample. Both one-step and multiple-step forecasts were produced. The results show that when an automatic algorithm the overall out-of-sample forecasting performance of state space and ARIMA models evaluated via RMSE, MAE and MAPE is quite similar on both one-step and multi-step forecasts. We also conclude that state space and ARIMA produce coverage probabilities that are close to the nominal rates for both one-step and multi-step forecasts.