Performance of state space and ARIMA models for consumer retail sales forecasting

Forecasting future sales is one of the most important issues that is beyond all strategic and planning decisions in effective operations of retail businesses. For profitable retail businesses, accurate demand forecasting is crucial in organizing and planning production, purchasing, transportation and labor force. Retail sales series belong to a special type of time series that typically contain trend and seasonal patterns, presenting challenges in developing effective forecasting models. This work compares the forecasting performance of state space models and ARIMA models. The forecasting performance is demonstrated through a case study of retail sales of five different categories of women footwear: Boots, Booties, Flats, Sandals and Shoes. On both methodologies the model with the minimum value of Akaike's Information Criteria for the in-sample period was selected from all admissible models for further evaluation in the out-of-sample. Both one-step and multiple-step forecasts were produced. The results show that when an automatic algorithm the overall out-of-sample forecasting performance of state space and ARIMA models evaluated via RMSE, MAE and MAPE is quite similar on both one-step and multi-step forecasts. We also conclude that state space and ARIMA produce coverage probabilities that are close to the nominal rates for both one-step and multi-step forecasts.

SmallPower, Energias Renov��veis, Lda.: tradu����o e gest��o de conte��dos

Relat��rio de est��gio realizado por: Tiago Andr�� Nogueira da Cruz Trabalho orientado pela Mestre C��lia Sousa

Abordagem ao risco de cr��dito no ��mbito do acordo de Basileia III em Portugal

Disserta����o para a obten����o do Grau de Mestre em Contabilidade e Finan��as Orientador: Mestre Adalmiro ��lvaro Malheiro de Castro Andrade Pereira

Fatores influenciadores da gest��o da qualidade e independ��ncia do auditor: um estudo de caso

Disserta����o apresentada ao Instituto Superior de Contabilidade para obten����o do Grau de Mestre em Auditoria Orientada por: Doutora Alcina Dias

Biomimetic norfloxacin sensors made of molecularly-imprinted materials for potentiometric transduction

A biomimetic sensor for norfloxacin is presented that is based on host-guest interactions and potentiometric transduction. The artificial host was imprinted into polymers made from methacrylic acid and/or 2-vinyl pyridine. The resulting particles were entrapped in a plasticized poly(vinyl chloride) (PVC) matrix. The sensors exhibit near-Nernstian response in steady state evaluations, and detection limits range from 0.40 to 1.0 ��gmL���1, respectively, and are independent of pH values at between 2 and 6, and 8 and 11, respectively. Good selectivity was observed over several potential interferents. In flowing media, the sensors exhibit fast response, a sensitivity of 68.2 mV per decade, a linear range from 79 ��M to 2.5 mM, a detection limit of 20 ��gmL���1, and a stable baseline. The sensors were successfully applied to field monitoring of norfloxacin in fish samples, biological samples, and pharmaceutical products

Determination of tartaric acid in wines by FIA with tubular tartrate-selective electrodes

A flow injection analysis (FIA) system comprising a tartrate- (TAT) selective electrode has been developed for determination of tartaric acid in wines. Several electrodes constructed for this purpose had a PVC membrane with a complex of quaternary ammonium and TAT as anion exchanger, a phenol derivative as additive, and a more or less polar mediator solvent. Characterization of the electrodes showed behavior was best for membranes with o-nitrophenyl octyl ether as solvent. On injection of 500 ��L into a phosphate buffer carrier (pH = 3.1; ionic strength 10���2 mol/L) flowing at 3 mL/min, the slope was 58.06 �� 0.6 with a lower limit of linear range of 5.0 �� 10���4 mol/L TAT and R2 = 0.9989. The interference of several species, e.g. chloride, bromide, iodide, nitrate, gallic acid, tannin, sucrose, glucose, fructose, acetate, and citrate, was evaluated in terms of potentiometric selectivity coefficients. The Hofmeister series was followed for inorganic species and the most interfering organic ion was citrate. When red and white wines were analyzed and the results compared with those from an independent method they were found to be accurate, with relative standard deviations below 5.0%.

Electrochemical determination of antioxidant capacities in flavored waters by guanine and adenine biosensors

The immobilization and electro-oxidation of guanine and adenine asDNA bases on glassy carbon electrode are evaluated by square wave voltammetric analysis. The influence of electrochemical pretreatments, nature of supporting electrolyte, pH, accumulation time and composition of DNA nucleotides on the immobilization effect and the electrochemical mechanism are discussed. Trace levels of either guanine or adenine can be readily detected following short accumulation time with detection limits of 35 and 40 ngmL���1 for guanine and adenine, respectively. The biosensors of guanine and adenine were employed for the voltammetric detection of antioxidant capacity in flavored water samples. The method relies on monitoring the changes of the intrinsic anodic response of the surface-confined guanine and adenine species, resulting from its interaction with free radicals from Fenton-type reaction in absence and presence of antioxidant. Ascorbic acid was used as standard to evaluate antioxidant capacities of samples. Analytical data was compared with that of FRAP method.

Electrochemical study of butylate: application to the analysis of water

The electroactivity of butylate (BTL) is studied by cyclic voltammetry (CV) and square wave voltammetry (SWV) at a glassy carbon electrode (GCE) and a hanging mercury drop electrode (HMDE). Britton���Robinson buffer solutions of pH 1.9���11.5 are used as supporting electrolyte. CV voltammograms using GCE show a single anodic peak regarding the oxidation of BTL at +1.7V versus AgCl/ Ag, an irreversible process controlled by diffusion. Using a HMDE, a single cathodic peak is observed, at 1.0V versus AgCl/Ag. The reduction of BTL is irreversible and controlled by adsorption. Mechanism proposals are presented for these redox transformations. Optimisation is carried out univaryingly. Linearity ranges were 0.10���0.50 mmol L-1 and 2.0���9.0 ��molL-1 for anodic and cathodic peaks, respectively. The proposed method is applied to the determination of BTL in waters. Analytical results compare well with those obtained by an HPLC method.

Ecotoxicity tests using the green algae chlorella vulgaris ��� a useful tool in hazardous effluents management

The treatment efficiency of laboratory wastewaters was evaluated and ecotoxicity tests with Chlorella vulgaris were performed on them to assess the safety of their environmental discharge. For chemical oxygen demand wastewaters, chromium (VI), mercury (II) and silver were efficiently removedby chemical treatments.Areduction of ecotoxicitywas achieved; nevertheless, an EC50 (effective concentration that causes a 50% inhibition in the algae growth) of 1.5% (v/v) indicated still high level of ecotoxicity. For chloride determination wastewaters, an efficient reduction of chromium and silver was achieved after treatment. Regarding the reduction of ecotoxicity observed, EC50 increased from 0.059% to 0.5%, only a 0.02% concentration in the aquatic environment would guarantee no effects. Wastewaters containing phenanthroline/iron (II) complex were treated by chemical oxidation. Treatmentwas satisfactory concerning chemical parameters, although an increase in ecotoxicitywas observed (EC50 reduced from 0.31% to 0.21%). The wastes from the kinetic study of persulphate and iodide reaction were treated with sodium bisulphite until colour was removed. Although they did not reveal significant ecotoxicity, only over 1% of the untreated waste produced observable effects over algae. Therefore, ecotoxicity tests could be considered a useful tool not only in laboratory effluents treatment, as shown, but also in hazardous wastewaters management.

Citrate selective electrodes for the flow injection analysis of soft drinks, beers and pharmaceutical products

Aiming the establishment of simple and accurate readings of citric acid (CA) in complex samples, citrate (CIT) selective electrodes with tubular configuration and polymeric membranes plus a quaternary ammonium ion exchanger were constructed. Several selective membranes were prepared for this purpose, having distinct mediator solvents (with quite different polarities) and, in some cases, p-tert-octylphenol (TOP) as additive. The latter was used regarding a possible increase in selectivity. The general working characteristics of all prepared electrodes were evaluated in a low dispersion flow injection analysis (FIA) manifold by injecting 500��l of citrate standard solutions into an ionic strength (IS) adjuster carrier (10���2 mol l���1) flowing at 3ml min���1. Good potentiometric response, with an average slope and a repeatability of 61.9mV per decade and ��0.8%, respectively, resulted from selective membranes comprising additive and bis(2-ethylhexyl)sebacate (bEHS) as mediator solvent. The same membranes conducted as well to the best selectivity characteristics, assessed by the separated solutions method and for several chemical species, such as chloride, nitrate, ascorbate, glucose, fructose and sucrose. Pharmaceutical preparations, soft drinks and beers were analyzed under conditions that enabled simultaneous pH and ionic strength adjustment (pH = 3.2; ionic strength = 10���2 mol l���1), and the attained results agreed well with the used reference method (relative error < 4%). The above experimental conditions promoted a significant increase in sensitivity of the potentiometric response, with a supra-Nernstian slope of 80.2mV per decade, and allowed the analysis of about 90 samples per hour, with a relative standard deviation <1.0%.

Construction and evaluation of cysteine selective electrodes for FIA analysis of pharmaceuticals

A flow injection analysis (FIA) system comprising a cysteine selective electrode as detection system was developed for determination of this amino acid in pharmaceuticals. Several electrodes were constructed for this purpose, having PVC membranes with different ionic exchangers and mediator solvents. Better working characteristics were attained with membranes comprising o-nitrophenyl octyl ether as mediator solvent and a tetraphenylborate based ionic-sensor. Injection of 500 ��L standard solutions into an ionic strength adjuster carrier (3x10-3 M) of barium chloride flowing at 2.4mL min-1, showed linearity ranges from 5.0x10-5 to 5.0x10-3 M, with slopes of 76.4��0.6mV decade-1 and R2>0.9935. Slope decreased significantly under the requirement of a pH adjustment, selected at 4.5. Interference of several compounds (sodium, potassium, magnesium, barium, glucose, fructose, and sucrose) was estimated by potentiometric selectivity coefficients and considered negligible. Analysis of real samples were performed and considered accurate, with a relative error to an independent method of +2.7%.

Determination of polyphenols in wines by reaction with 4-aminoantipyrine and photometric flow-injection analysis

A new flow-injection analytical procedure is proposed for the determination of the total amount of polyphenols in wines; the method is based on the formation of a colored complex between 4-aminoantipyrine and phenols, in the presence of an oxidizing reagent. The oxidizing agents hexacyanoferrate(III), peroxodisulfate, and tetroxoiodate(VII) were tested. Batch trials were first performed to select appropriate oxidizing agents, pH, and concentration ratios of reagents, on the basis of their effect on the stability of the colored complex. Conditions selected as a result of these trials were implemented in a flow-injection analytical system in which the influence of injection volume, flow rate, and reaction- coil length, was evaluated. Under the optimum conditions the total amount of polyphenols, expressed as gallic acid, could be determined within a concentration range of 36 to 544 mg L���1, and with a sensitivity of 344 L mol���1 cm���1 and an RSD <1.1%. The reproducibility of analytical readings was indicative of standard deviations <2%. Interference from sugars, tartaric acid, ascorbic acid, methanol, ammonium sulfate, and potassium chloride was negligible. The proposed system was applied to the determination of total polyphenols in red wines, and enabled analysis of approximately 55 samples h���1. Results were usually precise and accurate; the RSD was <3.9% and relative errors, by the Folin���Ciocalteu method, <5.1%.

Chlormequat selective electrodes: construction, evaluation and application at FIA systems

A flow injection analysis (FIA) system having a chlormequat selective electrode is proposed. Several electrodes with poly(vinyl chloride) based membranes were constructed for this purpose. Comparative characterization suggestedthe use of membrane with chlormequat tetraphenylborate and dibutylphthalate. On a single-line FIA set-up, operating with 1x10-2 mol L-1 ionic strength and 6.3 pH, calibration curves presented slopes of 53.6��0.4mV decade-1 within 5.0x10-6 and1.0x10-3 mol L-1, andsquaredcorrelation coefficients >0.9953. The detection limit was 2.2x10-6 mol L-1 and the repeatability equal to ��0.68mV (0.7%). A dual-channel FIA manifold was therefore constructed, enabling automatic attainment of previous ionic strength andpH conditions and thus eliminating sample preparation steps. Slopes of 45.5��0.2mV decade -1 along a concentration range of 8.0x10-6 to 1.0x10-3 mol L-1 with a repeatability ��0.4mV (0.69%) were obtained. Analyses of real samples were performed, and recovery gave results ranging from 96.6 to 101.1%.

Electroanalytical study of the pesticide ethiofencarb

A detailed study of voltammetric behavior of ethiofencarb (ETF) is reported using glassy carbon electrode (GCE) and hanging mercury drop electrode (HMDE). With GCE, it is possible to verify that the oxidative mechanism is irreversible, independent of pH, and the maximum intensity current was observed at +1.20 V vs. AgCl/Ag at pH 1.9. A linear calibration line was obtained from 1.0x10-4 to 8.0x10-4 mol L-1 with SWV method. To complete the electrochemical knowledge of ETF pesticide, the reduction was also explored with HMDE. A well-defined peak was observed at ���1.00V vs. AgCl/Ag in a large range of pH with higher signal at pH 7.0. Linearity was obtained in 4.2x10-6 and 9.4x10-6 mol L-1 ETF concentration range. An immediate alkaline hydrolysis of ETF was executed, producing a phenolic compound (2-ethylthiomethylphenol) (EMP), and the electrochemical activity of the product was examined. It was deduced that it is oxidized on GCE at +0.75V vs. AgCl/Ag with a maximum peak intensity current at pH 3.2, but the compound had no reduction activity on HMDE. Using the decrease of potential peak, a flow injection analysis (FIA) system was developed connected to an amperometric detector, enabling the determination of EMP over concentration range of 1.0x10-7 and 1.0x10-5 mol L-1 at a sampling rate of 60 h-1. The results provided by FIA methodology were performed by comparison with results from high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) technique and demonstrated good agreement with relative deviations lower than 4%. Recovery trials were performed and the obtained values were between 98 and 104%.

Ciprofloxacin-imprinted polymeric receptors as ionophores for potentiometric transduction

A 3D-mirror synthetic receptor for ciprofloxacin host���guest interactions and potentiometric transduction is presented. The host cavity was shaped on a polymeric surface assembled with methacrylic acid or 2-vinyl pyridine monomers by radical polymerization. Molecularly imprinted particles were dispersed in 2-nitrophenyl octyl ether and entrapped in a poly(vinyl chloride) matrix. The sensors exhibited a near-Nernstian response in steady state evaluations. Slopes and detection limits ranged from 26.8 to 50.0mVdecade���1 and 1.0��10���5 to 2.7��10���5 mol L���1, respectively. Good selectivity was observed for trimethoprim, enrofloxacin, tetracycline, cysteine, galactose, hydroxylamine, creatinine, ammonium chloride, sucrose, glucose, sulphamerazine and sulfadiazine. The sensors were successfully applied to the determination of ciprofloxacin concentrations in fish and in pharmaceuticals. The method presented offered the advantages of simplicity, accuracy, applicability to colored and turbid samples and automation feasibility, as well as confirming the use of molecularly imprinted polymers as ionophores for organic ion recognition in potentiometric transduction.