7 resultados para Risk controlling strategies
em Instituto Politécnico do Porto, Portugal
Resumo:
Following the deregulation experience of retail electricity markets in most countries, the majority of the new entrants of the liberalized retail market were pure REP (retail electricity providers). These entities were subject to financial risks because of the unexpected price variations, price spikes, volatile loads and the potential for market power exertion by GENCO (generation companies). A REP can manage the market risks by employing the DR (demand response) programs and using its' generation and storage assets at the distribution network to serve the customers. The proposed model suggests how a REP with light physical assets, such as DG (distributed generation) units and ESS (energy storage systems), can survive in a competitive retail market. The paper discusses the effective risk management strategies for the REPs to deal with the uncertainties of the DAM (day-ahead market) and how to hedge the financial losses in the market. A two-stage stochastic programming problem is formulated. It aims to establish the financial incentive-based DR programs and the optimal dispatch of the DG units and ESSs. The uncertainty of the forecasted day-ahead load demand and electricity price is also taken into account with a scenario-based approach. The principal advantage of this model for REPs is reducing the risk of financial losses in DAMs, and the main benefit for the whole system is market power mitigation by virtually increasing the price elasticity of demand and reducing the peak demand.
Resumo:
This paper presents a Multi-Agent Market simulator designed for developing new agent market strategies based on a complete understanding of buyer and seller behaviors, preference models and pricing algorithms, considering user risk preferences and game theory for scenario analysis. This tool studies negotiations based on different market mechanisms and, time and behavior dependent strategies. The results of the negotiations between agents are analyzed by data mining algorithms in order to extract rules that give agents feedback to improve their strategies. The system also includes agents that are capable of improving their performance with their own experience, by adapting to the market conditions, and capable of considering other agent reactions.
Resumo:
Short-term risk management is highly dependent on long-term contractual decisions previously established; risk aversion factor of the agent and short-term price forecast accuracy. Trying to give answers to that problem, this paper provides a different approach for short-term risk management on electricity markets. Based on long-term contractual decisions and making use of a price range forecast method developed by the authors, the short-term risk management tool presented here has as main concern to find the optimal spot market strategies that a producer should have for a specific day in function of his risk aversion factor, with the objective to maximize the profits and simultaneously to practice the hedge against price market volatility. Due to the complexity of the optimization problem, the authors make use of Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) to find the optimal solution. Results from realistic data, namely from OMEL electricity market, are presented and discussed in detail.
Resumo:
In the present paper we will consider strategies of innovation, risk and proactivity as entre/ intrapreneurship strategies. This study was done in a Portuguese and in a Polish region. In Portugal the region was Vale do Sousa, located in the northern Portugal. The Polish region was Lublin Voivodeship and it is situated in the south-eastern part of the country. The study focused on Industrial and Construction sectors. In order to get a valid sample, a group of 251 firms were analysed in Portugal, and 215 in Poland. However, the minimum sample size in Poland should be 323. Since this is a work in progress, we are aiming for this number of questionnaires. Each strategy was analysed individually for both regions and the results pointed to a lack of culture of entrepreneurship in firms’ management. Only Proactivity presented a positive result in firms’ management. Polish firms tend to be more innovative and more risk takers, while in proactivity Portuguese ones present a slightly higher result. Combining the strategy results, it was possible to identify that 61.2% of Portuguese firms present a low level of entrepreneurship, while 60% of Polish firms present a moderate level. Considering intrapreneurship good levels, while Portugal account for 5.2% this figure is 19.1% in Poland.
Resumo:
The goal of the present paper is to analyse the classic entrepreneurship strategies (Innovation, Risk and Proactivity) in small and medium-sized businesses. However as presented in the title, the study will go further by comparing the results of those strategies in familiar and nonfamiliar businesses. This study was carried on in construction and industry sectors, in the region of Vale do Sousa, in the north of Portugal. In order to classify businesses as familiar or non-familiar types two criterion were adopted: (1) Management Control, (2) Family Employability. On the opposite to some studies that present a larger percentage of familiar businesses in national and European entrepreneurial fabric, the criterion used leaded to a larger number of non-familiar businesses (53%). The results showed that in general SMEs in this region are not following entrepreneurship strategies. Analysing the entire sample without a separation of businesses by nature (familiar/non-familiar) only proactivity showed to be more present in the managerial decisions. There is a lack of innovation and risk culture. Comparing the groups only on proactivity tests was possible to verify some differences. It was concluded that non-familiar businesses are more proactive than familiar ones. Between those groups there are no statistical differences on the means of the variables innovation and risk. At the same time some tests were conducted to test the differences on the variable entrepreneurship. The results were similar to innovation and risk strategies: There are no significant differences on entrepreneurship between these groups of businesses.
Resumo:
Fragmentation on dynamically reconfigurable FPGAs is a major obstacle to the efficient management of the logic space in reconfigurable systems. When resource allocation decisions have to be made at run-time a rearrangement may be necessary to release enough contiguous resources to implement incoming functions. The feasibility of run-time relocation depends on the processing time required to set up rearrangements. Moreover, the performance of the relocated functions should not be affected by this process or otherwise the whole system performance, and even its operation, may be at risk. Relocation should take into account not only specific functional issues, but also the FPGA architecture, since these two aspects are normally intertwined. A simple and fast method to assess performance degradation of a function during relocation and to speed up the defragmentation process, based on previous function labelling and on the application of the Euclidian distance concept, is proposed in this paper.
Risk Acceptance in the Furniture Sector: Analysis of Acceptance Level and Relevant Influence Factors
Resumo:
Risk acceptance has been broadly discussed in relation to hazardous risk activities and/or technologies. A better understanding of risk acceptance in occupational settings is also important; however, studies on this topic are scarce. It seems important to understand the level of risk that stakeholders consider sufficiently low, how stakeholders form their opinion about risk, and why they adopt a certain attitude toward risk. Accordingly, the aim of this study is to examine risk acceptance in regard to occupational accidents in furniture industries. The safety climate analysis was conducted through the application of the Safety Climate in Wood Industries questionnaire. Judgments about risk acceptance, trust, risk perception, benefit perception, emotions, and moral values were measured. Several models were tested to explain occupational risk acceptance. The results showed that the level of risk acceptance decreased as the risk level increased. High-risk and death scenarios were assessed as unacceptable. Risk perception, emotions, and trust had an important influence on risk acceptance. Safety climate was correlated with risk acceptance and other variables that influence risk acceptance. These results are important for the risk assessment process in terms of defining risk acceptance criteria and strategies to reduce risks.