Long-term price range forecast applied to risk management using regression models

Long-term contractual decisions are the basis of an efficient risk management. However those types of decisions have to be supported with a robust price forecast methodology. This paper reports a different approach for long-term price forecast which tries to give answers to that need. Making use of regression models, the proposed methodology has as main objective to find the maximum and a minimum Market Clearing Price (MCP) for a specific programming period, and with a desired confidence level α. Due to the problem complexity, the meta-heuristic Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) was used to find the best regression parameters and the results compared with the obtained by using a Genetic Algorithm (GA). To validate these models, results from realistic data are presented and discussed in detail.

O efeito da técnica de inibição de Jones nos músculos Masseter e temporal nas disfunções temporomandibulares

Introdução: A disfunção temporomandibular (DTM), de causa muscular, caracteriza-se por uma dor músculo-esquelética crónica, com sinais e sintomas específicos como a presença de Trigger Points (TrPs). Objetivo: Avaliar o efeito da Técnica de Inibição de Jones (TIJ) nos músculos masseter e temporal em indivíduos com DTM, e a identificação dos sinais e sintomas, a relação entre a severidade da DTM, a ansiedade e a qualidade de sono. Métodos: Estudo quasi-experimental, constituído por 16 indivíduos no grupo experimental (GE) e 17 grupo controle (GC). O grau de severidade foi avaliado pelo Índice de Helkimo e as alterações do sono pelo questionário de Pittsburgh sobre a qualidade do sono. Apenas o GE foi sujeito a uma TIJ nos TrPs latentes dos músculos masseter e temporal. Os dois grupos foram avaliados pré-intervenção (M0), pós-intervenção (M1) e 3 semanas após (M2), as amplitudes de movimento ativas de abertura, lateralidade direita/esquerda e protusão da boca bem como a dor (EVA) em repouso e na abertura máxima. Resultados: Foi possível observar que quanto maior o grau de DTM, maior a frequência de ansiedade e pior a qualidade do sono. Observou-se um decréscimo de TrPs, no GE, após a aplicação da técnica, principalmente no masseter. Não foi possível verificar diferenças inter-grupos. Contudo, observou-se no GE uma melhoria em todas as amplitudes avaliadas entre o M0 e o M2. Em relação à EVA em repouso e na abertura máxima, o GE demonstrou diminuição da dor no M1 e manteve valores inferiores no M2. Conclusão: Verifica-se uma diminuição dos TrPs, uma melhoria das amplitudes ativas bem como uma diminuição da dor após a aplicação da TIJ no GE. Já ao longo do tempo, o efeito é menos expressivo contudo observam-se valores inferiores comparativamente a M0.

Short- and medium-term effects of manual therapy on cervical active range of motion and pressure pain sensitivity in latent myofascial pain of the upper trapezius muscle: a randomized controlled trial

Objective: The purpose of this study was to investigate effects of different manual techniques on cervical ranges of 17 motion and pressure pain sensitivity in subjects with latent trigger point of the upper trapezius muscle. 18 Methods: One hundred seventeen volunteers, with a unilateral latent trigger point on upper trapezius due to computer 19 work, were randomly divided into 5 groups: ischemic compression (IC) group (n = 24); passive stretching group (n = 20 23); muscle energy technique group (n = 23); and 2 control groups, wait-and-see group (n = 25) and placebo group 21 (n = 22). Cervical spine range of movement was measured using a cervical range of motion instrument as well as 22 pressure pain sensitivity by means of an algometer and a visual analog scale. Outcomes were assessed pretreatment, 23 immediately, and 24 hours after the intervention and 1 week later by a blind researcher. A 4 × 5 mixed repeated- 24 measures analysis of variance was used to examine the effects of the intervention and Cohen d coefficient was used. 25 Results: A group-by-time interaction was detected in all variables (P b .01), except contralateral rotation. The 26 immediate effect sizes of the contralateral flexion, ipsilateral rotation, and pressure pain threshold were large for 3 27 experimental groups. Nevertheless, after 24 hours and 1 week, only IC group maintained the effect size. 28 Conclusions: Manual techniques on upper trapezius with latent trigger point seemed to improve the cervical range of 29 motion and the pressure pain sensitivity. These effects persist after 1 week in the IC group. (J Manipulative Physiol 301 Ther 2013;xx:1-10)

CANDi: context-aware node discovery for short-range cooperation

Multi-standard mobile devices are allowing users to enjoy higher data rates with ubiquitous connectivity. However, the benefits gained from multiple interfaces come at an expense—that being higher energy consumption in an era where mobile devices need to be energy compliant. One promising solution is the usage of short-range cooperative communication as an overlay for infrastructure-based networks taking advantage of its context information. However, the node discovery mechanism, which is pivotal to the bearer establishment process, still represents a major burden in terms of the total energy budget. In this paper, we propose a technology agnostic approach towards enhancing the MAC energy ratings by presenting a context-aware node discovery (CANDi) algorithm, which provides a priori knowledge towards the node discovery mechanism by allowing it to search nodes in the near vicinity at the ‘right time and at the right place’. We describe the different beacons required for establishing the cooperation, as well as the context information required, including battery level, modes, location and so on. CANDi uses the long-range network (WiMAX and WiFi) to distribute the context information about cooperative clusters (Ultra-wideband-based) in the vicinity. The searching nodes can use this context in locating the cooperative clusters/nodes, which facilitates the establishing of short-range connections. Analytical and simulation results are obtained, and the energy saving gains are further demonstrated in the laboratory using a customised testbed. CANDi saves up to 50% energy during the node discovery process, while the demonstrative testbed shows up to 75% savings in the total energy budget, thus validating the algorithm, as well as providing viable evidence to support the usage of short-range cooperative communications for energy savings.

Determination of Microcystin-LR in waters in the subnanomolar range by sol–gel imprinted polymers on solid contact electrodes

The present work reports new sensors for the direct determination of Microcystin-LR (MC-LR) in environmental waters. Both selective membrane and solid contact were optimized to ensure suitable analytical features in potentiometric transduction. The sensing layer consisted of Imprinted Sol–Gel (ISG) materials capable of establishing surface interactions with MC-LR. Non-Imprinted Sol–Gel (NISG) membranes were used as negative control. The effects of an ionic lipophilic additive, time of sol–gel polymerization, time of extraction of MC-LR from the sensitive layer, and pH were also studied. The solid contact was made of carbon, aluminium, titanium, copper or nickel/chromium alloys (80 : 20 or 90 : 10). The best ISG sensor had a carbon solid contact and displayed average slopes of 211.3 mV per decade, with detection limits of 7.3 1010 M, corresponding to 0.75 mg L1 . It showed linear responses in the range of 7.7 1010 to 1.9 109 M of MC-LR (corresponding to 0.77–2.00 mg L1 ), thus including the limiting value for MC-LR in waters (1.0 mg L1 ). The potentiometric-selectivity coefficients were assessed by the matched potential method for ionic species regularly found in waters up to their limiting levels. Chloride (Cl) showed limited interference while aluminium (Al3+), ammonium (NH4 + ), magnesium (Mg2+), manganese (Mn2+), sodium (Na+ ), and sulfate (SO4 2) were unable to cause the required potential change. Spiked solutions were tested with the proposed sensor. The relative errors and standard deviation obtained confirmed the accuracy and precision of the method. It also offered the advantages of low cost, portability, easy operation and suitability for adaptation to flow methods.

Effects of Aerobic Exercise on Anxiety Disorders: A Systematic Review

Anxiety disorders are the most common psychiatric disorders observed currently. It is a normal adaptive response to stress that allows coping with adverse situations. Nevertheless, when anxiety becomes excessive or disproportional in relation to the situation that evokes it or when there is not any special object directed at it, such as an irrational dread of routine stimuli, it becomes a disabling disorder and is considered to be pathological. The traditional treatment used is medication and cognitive behavioral psychotherapy, however, last years the practice of physical exercise, specifically aerobic exercise, has been investigated as a new non-pharmacological therapy for anxiety disorders. Thus, the aim of this article was to provide information on research results and key chains related to the therapeutic effects of aerobic exercise compared with other types of interventions to treat anxiety, which may become a useful clinical application in a near future. Researches have shown the effectiveness of alternative treatments, such as physical exercise, minimizing high financial costs and minimizing side effects. The sample analyzed, 66.8% was composed of women and 80% with severity of symptoms anxiety as moderate to severe. The data analyzed in this review allows us to claim that alternative therapies like exercise are effective in controlling and reducing symptoms, as 91% of anxiety disorders surveys have shown effective results in treating. However, there is still disagreement regarding the effect of exercise compared to the use of antidepressant symptoms and cognitive function in anxiety, this suggests that there is no consensus on the correct intensity of aerobic exercise as to achieve the best dose-response, with intensities high to moderate or moderate to mild.