Long-term price range forecast applied to risk management using regression models

Long-term contractual decisions are the basis of an efficient risk management. However those types of decisions have to be supported with a robust price forecast methodology. This paper reports a different approach for long-term price forecast which tries to give answers to that need. Making use of regression models, the proposed methodology has as main objective to find the maximum and a minimum Market Clearing Price (MCP) for a specific programming period, and with a desired confidence level α. Due to the problem complexity, the meta-heuristic Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) was used to find the best regression parameters and the results compared with the obtained by using a Genetic Algorithm (GA). To validate these models, results from realistic data are presented and discussed in detail.

A long-term swarm intelligence hedging tool applied to electricity markets

This paper proposes a swarm intelligence long-term hedging tool to support electricity producers in competitive electricity markets. This tool investigates the long-term hedging opportunities available to electric power producers through the use of contracts with physical (spot and forward) and financial (options) settlement. To find the optimal portfolio the producer risk preference is stated by a utility function (U) expressing the trade-off between the expectation and the variance of the return. Variance estimation and the expected return are based on a forecasted scenario interval determined by a long-term price range forecast model, developed by the authors, whose explanation is outside the scope of this paper. The proposed tool makes use of Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) and its performance has been evaluated by comparing it with a Genetic Algorithm (GA) based approach. To validate the risk management tool a case study, using real price historical data for mainland Spanish market, is presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.

A long-term risk management tool for electricity markets using swarm intelligence

This paper addresses the optimal involvement in derivatives electricity markets of a power producer to hedge against the pool price volatility. To achieve this aim, a swarm intelligence meta-heuristic optimization technique for long-term risk management tool is proposed. This tool investigates the long-term opportunities for risk hedging available for electric power producers through the use of contracts with physical (spot and forward contracts) and financial (options contracts) settlement. The producer risk preference is formulated as a utility function (U) expressing the trade-off between the expectation and the variance of the return. Variance of return and the expectation are based on a forecasted scenario interval determined by a long-term price range forecasting model. This model also makes use of particle swarm optimization (PSO) to find the best parameters allow to achieve better forecasting results. On the other hand, the price estimation depends on load forecasting. This work also presents a regressive long-term load forecast model that make use of PSO to find the best parameters as well as in price estimation. The PSO technique performance has been evaluated by comparison with a Genetic Algorithm (GA) based approach. A case study is presented and the results are discussed taking into account the real price and load historical data from mainland Spanish electricity market demonstrating the effectiveness of the methodology handling this type of problems. Finally, conclusions are dully drawn.

Fin de partie: l'infini recommencement de rien

Dans Fin de partie, Beckett se révèle de nouveau un maître du théâtre de l’âme, mais d’une façon pas du tout conventionnelle. On doit classer cette pièce dans l’antithéâtre parce qu’elle manque d’intrigue, il n’y a que de situations cycliques toujours répétées, le temps ne veut pas passer, c’est plutôt un moment éternel, les personnages manquent de consistance et d’individualité : ils sont davantage des incarnations d’attitudes humaines, et ils parlent un langage décousu, un bourdonnement dépourvu de sens. Bien que tous ces aspects contribuent à l’ambiguïté de la pièce, rien n’y est laissé au hasard : tout sert à communiquer l’incommunicable. La scène se passe dans un lieu clos, avec une lumière crépusculaire qui suggère la fin du jour. Les personnages et les objets se trouvent dans des poubelles (Nagg et Nell) ou couverts par des draps : peu à peu, les objets et les personnages se dévoilent d’une façon fragmentée. C’est Clov qui nous dit qu’il s’agit de la fin de quelque chose, mais déjà le décor, la lumière, la déchéance physique des personnages et les dialogues à peine esquissés suggèrent un stage final qui n’en finit plus, qui devient un moment éternel, car la mort, elle non plus, ne se présente pas comme une solution pour le problème de notre existence absurde. Et nous voilà de nouveau face à face avec l’absurdité de la condition humaine, où l’homme se sent privé de toute certitude et incapable de découvrir un sens à son existence. Le tragique de la condition humaine, et le désir de lui mettre fin est le fil conducteur de Fin de partie. Les personnages montrent tout au long de la pièce que la condition humaine est intolérable et qu’ils sont écrasés par la routine et l’ennui. Ils se sentent perdus et abandonnés par un dieu quiconque, un monstre qui a créé la nature humaine. La vie est une pile de moments infernaux ; tout le monde est dans l’attente de quelqu’un ou d’un événement qui puisse changer son cours. Mais rien ne change, les personnages sont trop passifs – Clov se prépare pour son voyage, cependant, au lieu de partir, il reste là, immobile, jusqu’à la fin. Mais c’est juste pour ce danger que Beckett veut nous alerter : si nous ne faisons pas usage de notre liberté en nous recréant par une succession de choix, nous serons damnés, c’est-à-dire, condamnés à vivre dans le désespoir, le néant, l’absurde – la vie sera toujours un infini recommencement de rien.

La condition de la femme dans le cid

La tragi-comédie de Corneille, «Le Cid» (1636-7), est davantage une pièce d‘amour qui illustre bien la condition de la femme au XVIIème siècle. Le triangle amoureux constitué par l‘Infante, Chimène et Rodrigue est l‘un des fondements de la pièce. Cependant, comme les personnages sont insérés dans un système féodal basé sur une idéologie aristocratique, l‘amour ne se présente pas comme une jouissance paisible. De cette façon, il y a une lutte acharnée entre l‘amour, le devoir et l‘honneur, ce qui est frappant au niveau lexical. Les personnages les plus jeunes utilisent beaucoup de mots associés au thème de l‘amour et qui ont le radical amour-, tandis que les plus âgés emploient très souvent des mots qui appartiennent au champ lexical de l‘honneur et de la gloire. Selon D. Diègue, l‘honneur a plus de puissance que l‘amour, et il trouve que l‘homme qui s‘endort dans l‘amour oublie ses devoirs. Pour l‘Infante, Chimène et Rodrigue, l‘amour est lié à la souffrance. L‘Infante souffre, mais elle se conforme, parce qu‘étant donné qu‘elle est fille de roi, elle ne peut pas aimer Rodrigue qui appartient à un rang inférieur. Chimène est le revers de l‘Infante, c‘est une femme rebelle qui veut mouler sa destinée. Cependant, tout au long de la pièce, l‘héroïne est assujettie à une force mâle: si parfois l‘amour entre elle et Rodrigue ressemble à l‘amour courtois du Moyen âge quand il se met à la disposition de sa maîtresse et la place au-dessus de lui, la plupart du temps il met la passion en dessous de l‘honneur, parce que c‘est un homme et descend d‘une famille de guerriers vaillants. Selon le code chevaleresque dans lequel il est inséré la femme est inférieure à l‘homme. À la fin de la pièce, il y a une victoire de l‘amour sur l‘honneur et le devoir : Chimène abdique de son honneur en pardonnant et en prenant pour mari l‘assassin de son père. Le monde de l‘élément masculin triomphe et elle devient le prix de la victoire de Rodrigue. Mais si son statut de femme l‘empêche de sortir victorieuse, elle ne se conforme pas et dans sa dernière tirade elle met en question la justice et défie la société féodale.

Pelas veredas da luso-brasilidade: ressonâncias do Brasil nas obras de Ferreira de Castro e Miguel Torga

Ferreira de Castro (1898-1974) e Miguel Torga (1907-1995) viveram ambos, no início da adolescência, a dura experiência de emigração para o Brasil. O primeiro partiu com apenas doze anos, em 1911, o segundo, com treze, em 1920. Ambos procuraram o ―Eldorado‖, cruzaram o Atlântico num vapor, cresceram, amadureceram, regressaram a Portugal, revisitaram novamente o Brasil e escreveram sobre essas vivências, como é corroborado por Emigrantes e A Selva de Ferreira de Castro, o Diário, A Criação do Mundo, Traço de União de Miguel Torga que constituem o nosso corpus de trabalho. No presente artigo, analisaremos à luz da imagologia, um dos métodos da literatura comparada, que visa precisamente o estudo das imagens, as representações do Brasil que emergem da obra destes dois escritores. Nesta sequência, analisaremos, numa óptica comparatista, a ficcionalização das vivências dos autores, a trajectórias das suas personagens, contemplando, na configuração do espaço estrangeiro, as primeiras impressões e sua evolução, as descrições da paisagem, do povo, da vida e da cultura brasileiras. Além disso, seguiremos os caminhos da alteridade para desvendarmos igualmente o modo como é visto o ―outro‖, e a forma como se inscreve no discurso. Em suma, analisaremos o impacto da vivência da emigração, a importância desempenhada pelo país de acolhimento na obra dos dois escritores supramencionados, atendendo às ressonâncias da luso-brasilidade, alicerçadoras de uma maior abertura e dum diálogo mais próximo com o Brasil.

Influence of long-term wearing of unstable shoes on compensatory control of posture: An electromyography-based analysis

Purpose: This study investigated the influence of long-term wearing of unstable shoes (WUS) on compensatory postural adjustments (CPA) to an external perturbation. Methods: Participants were divided into two groups: one wore unstable shoes while the other wore conventional shoes for 8 weeks. The ground reaction force signal was used to calculate the anterior– posterior (AP) displacement of the centre of pressure (CoP) and the electromyographic signal of gastrocnemius medialis (GM), tibialis anterior (TA), rectus femoris (RF) and biceps femoris (BF) muscles was used to assess individual muscle activity, antagonist co-activation and reciprocal activation at the joint (TA/GM and RF/(BF + GM) pairs) and muscle group levels (ventral (TA + RF)/dorsal (GM + BF) pair) within time intervals typical for CPA. The electromyographic signal was also used to assess muscle latency. The variables described were evaluated before and after the 8-week period while wearing the unstable shoes and barefoot. Results: Long-term WUS led to: an increase of BF activity in both conditions (barefoot and wearing the unstable shoes); a decrease of GM activity; an increase of antagonist co-activation and a decrease of reciprocal activation level at the TA/GM and ventral/dorsal pairs in the unstable shoe condition. Additionally, WUS led to a decrease in CoP displacement. However, no differences were observed in muscle onset and offset. Conclusion: Results suggest that the prolonged use of unstable shoes leads to increased ankle and muscle groups’ antagonist co-activation levels and higher performance by the postural control system.

Impacto dos sistemas colaborativos nas organizações: estudo de casos de adopção e utilização de sistemas workflow

Dissertação apresentada na Universidade do Minho com vista à obtenção do grau de Doutor em Tecnologias e Sistemas de Informação (Engenharia e Gestão de Sistemas de Informação)

Using attractor dynamics to generate decentralized motion control of two mobile robots transporting a long object in coordination

Dynamical systems theory is used here as a theoretical language and tool to design a distributed control architecture for a team of two mobile robots that must transport a long object and simultaneously avoid obstacles. In this approach the level of modeling is at the level of behaviors. A “dynamics” of behavior is defined over a state space of behavioral variables (heading direction and path velocity). The environment is also modeled in these terms by representing task constraints as attractors (i.e. asymptotically stable states) or reppelers (i.e. unstable states) of behavioral dynamics. For each robot attractors and repellers are combined into a vector field that governs the behavior. The resulting dynamical systems that generate the behavior of the robots may be nonlinear. By design the systems are tuned so that the behavioral variables are always very close to one attractor. Thus the behavior of each robot is controled by a time series of asymptotically stable states. Computer simulations support the validity of our dynamic model architectures.

Long-term dependence in financial prices: evidence from the Belgian stock market returns

This article aims to contribute to the discussion of long-term dependence, focusing on the behavior of the main Belgian stock index. Non-parametric analyzes of the general characteristics of temporal frequency show that daily returns are non-ergodic and non-stationary. Therefore, we use the rescaled-range analysis (R/S) and the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA), under the fractional Brownian motion approach, and we found slight evidence of long-term dependence. These results refute the random walk hypothesis with i.i.d. increments, which is the basis of the EMH in its weak form, and call into question some theoretical modeling of asset pricing. Other more localized complementary study, to identify the evolution of the degree of dependence over time windows, showed that the index has become less persistent from 2010. This may mean a maturing market by the extension of the effects of current financial crisis.

Long-term memory in financial prices: evidence from the Dutch stock market returns

Prepared for presentation at the Portuguese Finance Network International Conference 2014, Vilamoura, Portugal, June 18-20

Simulação da Central de Cogeração da Refinaria de Matosinhos (Petrogal)

Mestrado em Engenharia Química – Ramo Optimização Energética na Indústria Química

Expatriates recruitment and selection for long-term international assignments in portuguese companies

Long-term international assignments’ increase requires more attention being paid for the preparation of these foreign assignments, especially on the recruitment and selection process of expatriates. This article explores how the recruitment and selection process of expatriates is developed in Portuguese companies, examining the main criteria on recruitment and selection of expatriates’ decision to send international assignments. The paper is based on qualitative case studies of companies located in Portugal. The data were collected through semi-structured interviews of 42 expatriates and 18 organisational representatives as well from nine Portuguese companies. The findings show that the most important criteria are: (1) trust from managers, (2) years in service, (3) previous technical and language competences, (4) organisational knowledge and, (5) availability. Based on the findings, the article discusses in detail the main theoretical and managerial implications. Suggestions for further research are also presented.

A elaboração do Portefólio de Transição [identificação de interesses e aspetos positivos da funcionalidade por uma jovem com incapacidade intelectual]

O presente estudo teve como objetivo analisar em que medida o envolvimento de uma jovem de 19 anos, com incapacidade intelectual, na elaboração de um portefólio de transição para a vida ativa, se revela um processo promotor do autoconhecimento e exploração pessoal, através de uma identificação mais abrangente das suas experiências, interesses e competências funcionais. O efeito valorativo da elaboração do portefólio - processo desenvolvido ao longo de 27 sessões - no reconhecimento de experiências e interações positivas de funcionalidade que sejam tomadas, pela própria jovem, como um ponto de partida para novas oportunidades no domínio de uma vida adulta autónoma, foi avaliado através da condução de uma entrevista – nos momentos pré e pós elaboração do portefólio – e do registo contínuo da participação da jovem ao longo das sessões. O guião da entrevista procurou incorporar tópicos que permitissem obter, através da perspetiva da jovem, um retrato da sua funcionalidade e do seu perfil pessoal. Socorremo-nos de técnicas de análise de conteúdo para examinar mudanças no conteúdo do discurso da jovem, procurando, com base nessa análise, quantificar e analisar a diversidade de experiências, interesses, funcionalidades e suportes reconhecidas pela própria antes e após elaboração do portefólio. Os resultados deste estudo indicam que a elaboração do portefólio promoveu a construção de um maior autoconhecimento, pela jovem, das suas competências, interesses e aspirações - havendo no momento pós-elaboração do portefólio uma maior referência a aspetos positivos da sua funcionalidade, nestas dimensões de análise. Assim, este estudo parece sugerir que o processo de elaboração do portefólio poder-se-á afigurar como uma metodologia facilitadora na condução de uma transição consonante com os princípios avançados na abordagem de planeamento centrado na pessoa.

TURTLE: Systems and technologies for deep ocean long term presence

This paper describes the TURTLE project that aim to develop sub-systems with the capability of deep-sea long-term presence. Our motivation is to produce new robotic ascend and descend energy efficient technologies to be incorporated in robotic vehicles used by civil and military stakeholders for underwater operations. TURTLE contribute to the sustainable presence and operations in the sea bottom. Long term presence on sea bottom, increased awareness and operation capabilities in underwater sea and in particular on benthic deeps can only be achieved through the use of advanced technologies, leading to automation of operation, reducing operational costs and increasing efficiency of human activity.