Age-period-cohort effects in the incidence of hip fractures: political and economic events are coincident with changes in risk

Introduction: Healthcare improvements have allowed prevention but have also increased life expectancy, resulting in more people being at risk. Our aim was to analyse the separate effects of age, period and cohort on incidence rates by sex in Portugal, 2000–2008. Methods: From the National Hospital Discharge Register, we selected admissions (aged ≥49 years) with hip fractures (ICD9-CM, codes 820.x) caused by low/moderate trauma (falls from standing height or less), readmissions and bone cancer cases. We calculated person-years at risk using population data from Statistics Portugal. To identify period and cohort effects for all ages, we used an age–period–cohort model (1-year intervals) followed by generalised additive models with a negative binomial distribution of the observed incidence rates of hip fractures. Results: There were 77,083 hospital admissions (77.4 % women). Incidence rates increased exponentially with age for both sexes (age effect). Incidence rates fell after 2004 for women and were random for men (period effect). There was a general cohort effect similar in both sexes; risk of hip fracture altered from an increasing trend for those born before 1930 to a decreasing trend following that year. Risk alterations (not statistically significant) coincident with major political and economic change in the history of Portugal were observed around birth cohorts 1920 (stable–increasing), 1940 (decreasing–increasing) and 1950 (increasing–decreasing only among women). Conclusions: Hip fracture risk was higher for those born during major economically/politically unstable periods. Although bone quality reflects lifetime exposure, conditions at birth may determine future risk for hip fractures.

Nephrotoxicity effects of the wood preservative chromium copper arsenate on mice: histopathological and quantitative approaches

Chromium copper arsenate(CCA)was used for the protection of wood building material suntil the restriction by EPA in2002. During a short period of time 14–24h,a comparative nephrotoxicity study was performed regarding the effects of CCA and its compounds per se. Histopathological and histochemical features were correlated with the concentration of the total arsenic and chromium in mice kidney. Animals were subcutaneously injected with CCA(7.2mg/kg arsenic and 10.2mg/kg chromium per body weight), CrO3 (10.2 mg/kg),As2O5 (7.2 mg/kg)andNaCl(0.9%) per se. The histopathological examination of the renal sections evidenced acute tubular necrosis in the groups of animals exposed to CCA(in both periods of time). Although the same contents of pentavalent arsenic and hexavalent chromium were injected in treated animals with CCA and with the prepared solutions of As2O5 and CrO3, the arsenic concentration on kidneys of CCA-exposed animals was much higher than those in animals exposed to As2O5 (32- and28-fold higher at 14 and 24h,respectively). However,the elimination of chromium seems to occur similarly in the kidneys of animals treated with CCA and CrO3 per se. Interactions among the components of CCA result in a marked decrease of the ability of kidney to eliminate simultaneously both analytes.The nephrotoxicity of CCA was higher than its components per se, evidencing a possible synergetic effect.

Stochasticity favoring the effects of the R&D strategies of the firms

We present stochastic dynamics on the production costs of Cournot competitions, based on perfect Nash equilibria of nonlinear R&D investment strategies to reduce the production costs of the firms at every period of the game. We analyse the effects that the R&D investment strategies can have in the profits of the firms along the time. We observe that, in certain cases, the uncertainty can improve the effects of the R&D strategies in the profits of the firms due to the non-linearity of the profit functions and also of the R&D parameters.