Acrescentar valor à organização com a auditoria interna

Dissertação de Mestrado Apresentado ao Instituto de Contabilidade e Administração do Porto para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Auditoria, sob orientação de Doutora Alcina Portugal Dias

Reinforcement Learning Based on the Bayesian Theorem for Electricity Markets Decision Support

This paper presents the applicability of a reinforcement learning algorithm based on the application of the Bayesian theorem of probability. The proposed reinforcement learning algorithm is an advantageous and indispensable tool for ALBidS (Adaptive Learning strategic Bidding System), a multi-agent system that has the purpose of providing decision support to electricity market negotiating players. ALBidS uses a set of different strategies for providing decision support to market players. These strategies are used accordingly to their probability of success for each different context. The approach proposed in this paper uses a Bayesian network for deciding the most probably successful action at each time, depending on past events. The performance of the proposed methodology is tested using electricity market simulations in MASCEM (Multi-Agent Simulator of Competitive Electricity Markets). MASCEM provides the means for simulating a real electricity market environment, based on real data from real electricity market operators.

Provisões e contingências

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Contabilidade e Finanças Orientador: Doutor, José Manuel Veiga Pereira

Study of distribution network demand response events in the Portuguese system

In competitive electricity markets with deep concerns for the efficiency level, demand response programs gain considerable significance. As demand response levels have decreased after the introduction of competition in the power industry, new approaches are required to take full advantage of demand response opportunities. Grid operators and utilities are taking new initiatives, recognizing the value of demand response for grid reliability and for the enhancement of organized spot markets’ efficiency. This paper proposes a methodology for the selection of the consumers that participate in an event, which is the responsibility of the Portuguese transmission network operator. The proposed method is intended to be applied in the interruptibility service implemented in Portugal, in convergence with Spain, in the context of the Iberian electricity market. This method is based on the calculation of locational marginal prices (LMP) which are used to support the decision concerning the consumers to be schedule for participation. The proposed method has been computationally implemented and its application is illustrated in this paper using a 937 bus distribution network with more than 20,000 consumers.

Mergers and acquisitions as strategies of business expansion in the pharmaceutical industry

Introduction: The present paper deals with the issue of the increasing usage of corporation mergers and acquisitions strategies within pharmaceutical industry environment. The aim is to identify the triggers of such business phenomenon and the immediate impact on the financial outcome of two powerful biopharmaceutical corporations: Pfizer and GlaxoSmithKline, which have been sampled due to their successful approach of the tactics in question. Materials and Methods: In order to create an overview of the development steps through mergers and acquisitions, the historical data of the two corporations has been consulted, from their official websites. The most relevant events were then associated with adequate information from the financial reports and statements of the two corporations indulged by web-based financial data providers. Results and Discussions: In the past few decades Pfizer and GlaxoSmithKline have purchased or merged with various companies in order to monopolize new markets, diversify products and services portfolios, survive and surpass competitors. The consequences proved to be positive although this approach implies certain capital availability. Conclusions: Results reveal the fact that, as far as the two sampled companies are concerned, acquisitions and mergers are reactions at the pressure of the highly competitive environment. Moreover, the continuous diversification of the market’s needs is also a consistent motive. However, the prevalence and the eminence of mergers and acquisition strategies are conditioned by the tender offer, the announcer’s caliber, research and development status and further other factors determined by the internal and external actors of the market.

LMP triggered real time demand response events

Recent changes in power systems mainly due to the substantial increase of distributed generation and to the operation in competitive environments has created new challenges to operation and planning. In this context, Virtual Power Players (VPP) can aggregate a diversity of players, namely generators and consumers, and a diversity of energy resources, including electricity generation based on several technologies, storage and demand response. Demand response market implementation has been done in recent years. Several implementation models have been considered. An important characteristic of a demand response program is the trigger criterion. A program for which the event trigger depends on the Locational Marginal Price (LMP) used by the New England Independent System operator (ISO-NE) inspired the present paper. This paper proposes a methodology to support VPP demand response programs management. The proposed method has been computationally implemented and its application is illustrated using a 32 bus network with intensive use of distributed generation. Results concerning the evaluation of the impact of using demand response events are also presented.

The Past, Polish politics of memory, and stereotyping: an intercultural perspective

The main idea of the article is to consider the interdependence between Politics of Memory (as a type of narrating the Past) and Stereotyping. The author suggests that, in a time of information revolution, we are still constructing images of others on the basis of simplification, overestimation of association between features, and illusory correlations, instead of basing them on knowledge and personal contact. The Politics of Memory, national remembrance, and the historical consciousness play a significant role in these processes, because – as the author argues – they transform historically based 'symbolic analogies' into 'illusory correlations' between national identity and the behavior of its members. To support his theoretical investigation, the author presents results of his draft experiment and two case studies: (a) a social construction of images of neighbors based on Polish narrations about the Past; and (b) various processes of stereotyping based on the Remembrance of the Holocaust. All these considerations lead him to state that the Politics of Memory should be recognized as an influential source of commonly shared stereotypes on other cultures and nations.

Market impact of international sporting and cultural events

We study market reaction to the announcements of the selected country hosting the Summer and Winter Olympic Games, the World Football Cup, the European Football Cup and World and Specialized Exhibitions. We generalize previous results analyzing a large number and different types of mega-events, evaluate the effects for winning and losing countries, investigate the determinants of the observed market reaction and control for the ex ante probability of a country being a successful bidder. Average abnormal returns measured at the announcement date and around the event are not significantly different from zero. Further, we find no evidence supporting that industries, that a priori were more likely to extract direct benefits from the event, observe positive significant effects. Yet, when we control for anticipation, the stock price reactions around the announcements are significant.

Real-time tracking and reporting of dynamic events in hierarchical wireless sensor networks

Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) are highly distributed systems in which resource allocation (bandwidth, memory) must be performed efficiently to provide a minimum acceptable Quality of Service (QoS) to the regions where critical events occur. In fact, if resources are statically assigned independently from the location and instant of the events, these resources will definitely be misused. In other words, it is more efficient to dynamically grant more resources to sensor nodes affected by critical events, thus providing better network resource management and reducing endto- end delays of event notification and tracking. In this paper, we discuss the use of a WSN management architecture based on the active network management paradigm to provide the real-time tracking and reporting of dynamic events while ensuring efficient resource utilization. The active network management paradigm allows packets to transport not only data, but also program scripts that will be executed in the nodes to dynamically modify the operation of the network. This presumes the use of a runtime execution environment (middleware) in each node to interpret the script. We consider hierarchical (e.g. cluster-tree, two-tiered architecture) WSN topologies since they have been used to improve the timing performance of WSNs as they support deterministic medium access control protocols.

Improving the IEEE 802.15.4 Slotted CSMA/CA MAC for time-critical events in wireless sensor networks

In beacon-enabled mode, IEEE 802.15.4 is ruled by the slotted CSMA/CA Medium Access Control (MAC) protocol. The standard slotted CSMA/CA mechanism does not provide any means of differentiated services to improve the quality of service for timecritical events (such as alarms, time slot reservation, PAN management messages etc.). In this paper, we present and discuss practical service differentiation mechanisms to improve the performance of slotted CSMA/CA for time-critical events, with only minor add-ons to the protocol. The contribution of our proposal is more practical than theoretical since our initial requirement is to leave the original algorithm of the slotted CSMA/CA unchanged, but rather tuning its parameters adequately according to the criticality of the messages. We present a simulation study based on an accurate model of the IEEE 802.15.4 MAC protocol, to evaluate the differentiated service strategies. Four scenarios with different settings of the slotted CSMA/CA parameters are defined. Each scenario is evaluated for FIFO and Priority Queuing. The impact of the hiddennode problem is also analyzed, and a solution to mitigate it is proposed.

The role of cultural mega events in the enhancement of city’s image attributes: differences between engaged and attendee participants

In a time of fierce competition between regions, an image serve as a basis to develop a strong sense of community, which fosters trust and cooperation that can be mobilized for regional growth. A positive image and reputation could be used in the promotional activities of the region benefiting all the stakeholders as a whole. Mega cultural events are frequently used to attract tourists and investments to a region, but also to enhance the city’s image. This study adopts a marketing/communication perspective of city’s image, and intends to explain how the image of the city is perceived by their residents. Specifically, we intend to compare the perceptions of residents that effectively participated in the Guimarães European Capital of Culture (ECOC) 2012 (engaged residents), and the residents that only assisted to the event (attendees). Several significant findings are reported and their implications for event managers and public policy administrators presented, along with the limitations of the study

Dynamic load management in a smart home to participate in demand response events

In future power systems, in the smart grid and microgrids operation paradigms, consumers can be seen as an energy resource with decentralized and autonomous decisions in the energy management. It is expected that each consumer will manage not only the loads, but also small generation units, heating systems, storage systems, and electric vehicles. Each consumer can participate in different demand response events promoted by system operators or aggregation entities. This paper proposes an innovative method to manage the appliances on a house during a demand response event. The main contribution of this work is to include time constraints in resources management, and the context evaluation in order to ensure the required comfort levels. The dynamic resources management methodology allows a better resources’ management in a demand response event, mainly the ones of long duration, by changing the priorities of loads during the event. A case study with two scenarios is presented considering a demand response with 30 min duration, and another with 240 min (4 h). In both simulations, the demand response event proposes the power consumption reduction during the event. A total of 18 loads are used, including real and virtual ones, controlled by the presented house management system.

Transient Spaces: unsettling boundaries and norms at the cultural event Noc Noc, Guimarães, Portugal

Cities are increasingly expected to be creative, inventive and to exhibit intense expressivity. In the past decades many cities have experienced growing pressure to produce and stage cultural events of different sorts and to develop new strategies that optimize competitive advantages, in order to promote themselves and to boost and sell their image. Often these actions have relied on heavy public investment and major private corporation sponsoring, but it is not always clear or measured how successful and reproductive these investments have been. In the context of strained public finances and profound economic crisis of European peripheral countries, events that emerge from local communities and have low budgets, which manage to create significant fluxes of visitors and visibility, assume an increased interest. In order to reflect and sketch possible answers, we look to an emerging body of literature concerning creative cities, and we focus on the organisation of a particular cultural event and its impact and assimilation into a medium size Portuguese city. This paper looks at the two editions (2011 and 2012) of one of such events – Noc Noc – organized by a local association in the city of Guimarães, Portugal. Inspired by similar events, Noc Noc is based on creating transient spaces of culture which are explored by artists and audiences, by transforming numerous homes into ephemeral convivial and playful social ‘public’ environments. The event is based on a number of cultural venues/homes scattered around the old and newer city, which allows for an informal urban exploration and an autonomous rambling and getting lost along streets. This strategy not only disrupts the cleavages between public and private space permitting for various transgressions, but it also disorders normative urban experiences and unsettles the dominant role of the city council as the culture patron of the large majority of events. Guimarães, an UNESCO World Heritage City was the European Capital of Culture in 2012, with a public investment of roughly 73 million euro. By interviewing a sample of people who have hosted these transitory art performances and exhibitions, sometimes doubling as artists, the events’ organizers and by experience both editions of the event, this paper illustrates how urban citizens’ engagement and motivations in a low budget cultural event can strengthen community ties. Furthermore, it also questions the advantages of large scale high budget events, and how this event may be seen as unconscious counter movement against a commodification of cultural events and everyday urban experience at large, engaging with the concepts of staging and authenticity.

Age-period-cohort effects in the incidence of hip fractures: political and economic events are coincident with changes in risk

Introduction: Healthcare improvements have allowed prevention but have also increased life expectancy, resulting in more people being at risk. Our aim was to analyse the separate effects of age, period and cohort on incidence rates by sex in Portugal, 2000–2008. Methods: From the National Hospital Discharge Register, we selected admissions (aged ≥49 years) with hip fractures (ICD9-CM, codes 820.x) caused by low/moderate trauma (falls from standing height or less), readmissions and bone cancer cases. We calculated person-years at risk using population data from Statistics Portugal. To identify period and cohort effects for all ages, we used an age–period–cohort model (1-year intervals) followed by generalised additive models with a negative binomial distribution of the observed incidence rates of hip fractures. Results: There were 77,083 hospital admissions (77.4 % women). Incidence rates increased exponentially with age for both sexes (age effect). Incidence rates fell after 2004 for women and were random for men (period effect). There was a general cohort effect similar in both sexes; risk of hip fracture altered from an increasing trend for those born before 1930 to a decreasing trend following that year. Risk alterations (not statistically significant) coincident with major political and economic change in the history of Portugal were observed around birth cohorts 1920 (stable–increasing), 1940 (decreasing–increasing) and 1950 (increasing–decreasing only among women). Conclusions: Hip fracture risk was higher for those born during major economically/politically unstable periods. Although bone quality reflects lifetime exposure, conditions at birth may determine future risk for hip fractures.

A Learning Algorithm and System Approach to Address Exceptional Events in Domestic Consumption Management

The integration of the Smart Grid concept into the electric grid brings to the need for an active participation of small and medium players. This active participation can be achieved using decentralized decisions, in which the end consumer can manage loads regarding the Smart Grid needs. The management of loads must handle the users’ preferences, wills and needs. However, the users’ preferences, wills and needs can suffer changes when faced with exceptional events. This paper proposes the integration of exceptional events into the SCADA House Intelligent Management (SHIM) system developed by the authors, to handle machine learning issues in the domestic consumption context. An illustrative application and learning case study is provided in this paper.