Short-term Wind Speed Forecasting using Support Vector Machines

Wind speed forecasting has been becoming an important field of research to support the electricity industry mainly due to the increasing use of distributed energy sources, largely based on renewable sources. This type of electricity generation is highly dependent on the weather conditions variability, particularly the variability of the wind speed. Therefore, accurate wind power forecasting models are required to the operation and planning of wind plants and power systems. A Support Vector Machines (SVM) model for short-term wind speed is proposed and its performance is evaluated and compared with several artificial neural network (ANN) based approaches. A case study based on a real database regarding 3 years for predicting wind speed at 5 minutes intervals is presented.

Effects of Soil Compaction and Organic Carbon Content on Preferential Flow in Loamy Field Soils

Abstract: Preferential flow and transport through macropores affect plant water use efficiency and enhance leaching of agrochemicals and the transport of colloids, thereby increasing the risk for contamination of groundwater resources. The effects of soil compaction, expressed in terms of bulk density (BD), and organic carbon (OC) content on preferential flow and transport were investigated using 150 undisturbed soil cores sampled from 15 × 15–m grids on two field sites. Both fields had loamy textures, but one site had significantly higher OC content. Leaching experiments were conducted in each core by applying a constant irrigation rate of 10 mm h−1 with a pulse application of tritium tracer. Five percent tritium mass arrival times and apparent dispersivities were derived from each of the tracer breakthrough curves and correlated with texture, OC content, and BD to assess the spatial distribution of preferential flow and transport across the investigated fields. Soils from both fields showed strong positive correlations between BD and preferential flow. Interestingly, the relationships between BD and tracer transport characteristics were markedly different for the two fields, although the relationship between BD and macroporosity was nearly identical. The difference was likely caused by the higher contents of fines and OC at one of the fields leading to stronger aggregation, smaller matrix permeability, and a more pronounced pipe-like pore system with well-aligned macropores.

Predictivity Strength of the Spatial Variability of Phenanthrene Sorption Across Two Sandy Loam Fields

Sorption is commonly agreed to be the major process underlying the transport and fate of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in soils. However, there is still a scarcity of studies focusing on spatial variability at the field scale in particular. In order to investigate the variation in the field of phenanthrene sorption, bulk topsoil samples were taken in a 15 × 15-m grid from the plough layer in two sandy loam fields with different texture and organic carbon (OC) contents (140 samples in total). Batch experiments were performed using the adsorption method. Values for the partition coefficient K d (L kg−1) and the organic carbon partition coefficient K OC (L kg−1) agreed with the most frequently used models for PAH partitioning, as OC revealed a higher affinity for sorption. More complex models using different OC compartments, such as non-complexed organic carbon (NCOC) and complexed organic carbon (COC) separately, performed better than single K OC models, particularly for a subset including samples with Dexter n < 10 and OC <0.04 kg kg−1. The selected threshold revealed that K OC-based models proved to be applicable for more organic fields, while two-component models proved to be more accurate for the prediction of K d and retardation factor (R) for less organic soils. Moreover, OC did not fully reflect the changes in phenanthrene retardation in the field with lower OC content (Faardrup). Bulk density and available water content influenced the phenanthrene transport mechanism phenomenon.

Fluência de materiais

A presente dissertação apresenta uma abordagem ao tema Fluência, com um desenvolvimento geral para quatro materiais: madeira, alumínio, betão e aço. No entanto, particularizou-se este estudo apenas para dois destes materiais, a madeira e o alumínio. A madeira é um material viscoelástico, logo fortemente influenciado quando submetido a uma ação constante (Fluência) sendo agravada com alterações do teor em água. Iniciou-se o estudo, com uma introdução aos objetivos principais e a revisão teórica do conhecimento da propriedade mecânica (Fluência). Efetuou-se o estudo inicial para os quatro materiais indicados. Posteriormente, fez-se avaliação do efeito mecânico sortivo durante 60 dias com sete ciclos, em provetes de dimensões 20 x 20 x 400 mm3 (escala 1:10) de madeira de Eucalyptus globulus Labill. Recorrendo ao levantamento de um conjunto de modelos numéricos, procedeu-se ao ajuste e extrapolação do comportamento, em Fluência, para distintos períodos de tempo (1, 10 e 50 anos). Os resultados obtidos demonstraram que a madeira de Eucalipto não apresenta um limite no seu comportamento em Fluência, logo instável para os 60 dias de duração de ensaio. Os diferentes modelos de Fluência (x6) apresentaram uma variabilidade crescente de resultados, de acordo com o aumento de extrapolação dos resultados. Para a espécie de madeira de Eucalipto constatou-se ainda, que o ajuste e extrapolação de deformação para 50 anos ultrapassaram os valores sugeridos pelo Eurocódigo 5. A última parte deste trabalho, incidiu sobre o desenvolvimento da metodologia do ensaio em flexão de 3 provetes de alumínio similares, cujas dimensões eram de 20 x 20 x 400mm3. O objetivo desta metodologia foi avaliar o seu comportamento em Fluência. Numa primeira fase, foi aplicada uma carga contante de 160 kN. E numa segunda fase, foi aplicada o dobro dessa carga sujeita adicionalmente a uma temperatura bastante superior à temperatura ambiente (a rondar os 50 oC). Conclusivamente verificou-se que o alumínio não apresenta deformação por Fluência, para as condições de ensaio apresentadas.