Long-term price range forecast applied to risk management using regression models

Long-term contractual decisions are the basis of an efficient risk management. However those types of decisions have to be supported with a robust price forecast methodology. This paper reports a different approach for long-term price forecast which tries to give answers to that need. Making use of regression models, the proposed methodology has as main objective to find the maximum and a minimum Market Clearing Price (MCP) for a specific programming period, and with a desired confidence level α. Due to the problem complexity, the meta-heuristic Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) was used to find the best regression parameters and the results compared with the obtained by using a Genetic Algorithm (GA). To validate these models, results from realistic data are presented and discussed in detail.

Numerical optimization experiments using the hyperbolic smoothing strategy to solve MPCC

In this work we solve Mathematical Programs with Complementarity Constraints using the hyperbolic smoothing strategy. Under this approach, the complementarity condition is relaxed through the use of the hyperbolic smoothing function, involving a positive parameter that can be decreased to zero. An iterative algorithm is implemented in MATLAB language and a set of AMPL problems from MacMPEC database were tested.

Numerical experiments with a modified regularization scheme for mathematical programs with complementarity constraints

On this paper we present a modified regularization scheme for Mathematical Programs with Complementarity Constraints. In the regularized formulations the complementarity condition is replaced by a constraint involving a positive parameter that can be decreased to zero. In our approach both the complementarity condition and the nonnegativity constraints are relaxed. An iterative algorithm is implemented in MATLAB language and a set of AMPL problems from MacMPEC database were tested.

Short- and medium-term effects of manual therapy on cervical active range of motion and pressure pain sensitivity in latent myofascial pain of the upper trapezius muscle: a randomized controlled trial

Objective: The purpose of this study was to investigate effects of different manual techniques on cervical ranges of 17 motion and pressure pain sensitivity in subjects with latent trigger point of the upper trapezius muscle. 18 Methods: One hundred seventeen volunteers, with a unilateral latent trigger point on upper trapezius due to computer 19 work, were randomly divided into 5 groups: ischemic compression (IC) group (n = 24); passive stretching group (n = 20 23); muscle energy technique group (n = 23); and 2 control groups, wait-and-see group (n = 25) and placebo group 21 (n = 22). Cervical spine range of movement was measured using a cervical range of motion instrument as well as 22 pressure pain sensitivity by means of an algometer and a visual analog scale. Outcomes were assessed pretreatment, 23 immediately, and 24 hours after the intervention and 1 week later by a blind researcher. A 4 × 5 mixed repeated- 24 measures analysis of variance was used to examine the effects of the intervention and Cohen d coefficient was used. 25 Results: A group-by-time interaction was detected in all variables (P b .01), except contralateral rotation. The 26 immediate effect sizes of the contralateral flexion, ipsilateral rotation, and pressure pain threshold were large for 3 27 experimental groups. Nevertheless, after 24 hours and 1 week, only IC group maintained the effect size. 28 Conclusions: Manual techniques on upper trapezius with latent trigger point seemed to improve the cervical range of 29 motion and the pressure pain sensitivity. These effects persist after 1 week in the IC group. (J Manipulative Physiol 301 Ther 2013;xx:1-10)

Numerical and experimental analyses of biocomposites reinforced with natural fibres

n the last decades the biocomposites have been widely used in the construction, automobile and aerospace industries. Not only the interface transition zone (ITZ) but also the heterogeneity of natural fibres affects the mechanical behaviour of these composites. This work focuses on the numerical and experimental analyses of a polymeric composite fabricated with epoxy resin and unidirectional sisal and banana fibres. A three-dimensional model was set to analyze the composites using the elastic properties of the individual phases. In addition, a two-dimensional model was set taking into account the effective composite properties obtained by micromechanical models. A tensile testing was performed to validate the numerical analyses and evaluating the interface condition of the constitutive phases.

Complex-order forced van der Pol oscillator

In this paper we consider a complex-order forced van der Pol oscillator. The complex derivative Dα1jβ, with α, β ∈ ℝ+, is a generalization of the concept of an integer derivative, where α = 1, β = 0. The Fourier transforms of the periodic solutions of the complex-order forced van der Pol oscillator are computed for various values of parameters such as frequency ω and amplitude b of the external forcing, the damping μ, and parameters α and β. Moreover, we consider two cases: (i) b = 1, μ = {1.0, 5.0, 10.0}, and ω = {0.5, 2.46, 5.0, 20.0}; (ii) ω = 20.0, μ = {1.0, 5.0, 10.0}, and b = {1.0, 5.0, 10.0}. We verified that most of the signal energy is concentrated in the fundamental harmonic ω0. We also observed that the fundamental frequency of the oscillations ω0 varies with α and μ. For the range of tested values, the numerical fitting led to logarithmic approximations for system (7) in the two cases (i) and (ii). In conclusion, we verify that by varying the parameter values α and β of the complex-order derivative in expression (7), we accomplished a very effective way of perturbing the dynamical behavior of the forced van der Pol oscillator, which is no longer limited to parameters b and ω.

Numerical and experimental study of tensile strength of single and double-strap repairs

Adhesive bonding as a joining or repair method has a wide application in many industries. Repairs with bonded patches are often carried out to re-establish the stiffness at critical regions or spots of corrosion and/or fatigue cracks. Single and double-strap repairs (SS and DS, respectively) are a viable option for repairing. For the SS repairs, a patch is adhesively-bonded on one of the structure faces. SS repairs are easy to execute, but the load eccentricity leads to peel peak stresses at the overlap edges. DS repairs involve the use of two patches, one on each face of the structure. These are more efficient than SS repairs, due to the doubling of the bonding area and suppression of the transverse deflection of the adherends. Shear stresses also become more uniform as a result of smaller differential straining. The experimental and Finite Element (FE) study presented here for strength prediction and design optimization of bonded repairs includes SS and DS solutions with different values of overlap length (LO). The examined values of LO include 10, 20 and 30 mm. The failure strengths of the SS and DS repairs were compared with FE results by using the Abaqus® FE software. A Cohesive Zone Model (CZM) with a triangular shape in pure tensile and shear modes, including the mixed-mode possibility for crack growth, was used to simulate fracture of the adhesive layer. A good agreement was found between the experiments and the FE simulations on the failure modes, elastic stiffness and strength of the repairs, showing the effectiveness and applicability of the proposed FE technique in predicting strength of bonded repairs. Furthermore, some optimization principles were proposed to repair structures with adhesively-bonded patches that will allow repair designers to effectively design bonded repairs.

Numerical prediction of delamination onset in carbon/epoxy composites drilling

Despite the fact that their physical properties make them an attractive family of materials, composites machining can cause several damage modes such as delamination, fibre pull-out, thermal degradation, and others. Minimization of axial thrust force during drilling reduces the probability of delamination onset, as it has been demonstrated by analytical models based on linear elastic fracture mechanics (LEFM). A finite element model considering solid elements of the ABAQUS® software library and interface elements including a cohesive damage model was developed in order to simulate thrust forces and delamination onset during drilling. Thrust force results for delamination onset are compared with existing analytical models.

A simple approach to numerical modelling of propane combustion in fluidized beds

A mathematical model is proposed for the evolution of temperature, chemical composition, and energy release in bubbles, clouds, and emulsion phase during combustion of gaseous premixtures of air and propane in a bubbling fluidized bed. The analysis begins as the bubbles are formed at the orifices of the distributor, until they explode inside the bed or emerge at the free surface of the bed. The model also considers the freeboard region of the fluidized bed until the propane is thoroughly burned. It is essentially built upon the quasi-global mechanism of Hautman et al. (1981) and the mass and heat transfer equations from the two-phase model of Davidson and Harrison (1963). The focus is not on a new modeling approach, but on combining the classical models of the kinetics and other diffusional aspects to obtain a better insight into the events occurring inside a fluidized bed reactor. Experimental data are obtained to validate the model by testing the combustion of commercial propane, in a laboratory-scale fluidized bed, using four sand particle sizes: 400–500, 315–400, 250–315, and 200–250 µm. The mole fractions of CO2, CO, and O2 in the flue gases and the temperature of the fluidized bed are measured and compared with the numerical results.

Experimental and numerical evaluation of composite repairs on wood beams damaged by cross-graining

An experimental and Finite Element study was performed on the bending behaviour of wood beams of the Pinus Pinaster species repaired with adhesively-bonded carbon–epoxy patches, after sustaining damage by cross-grain failure. This damage is characterized by crack growth at a small angle to the beams longitudinal axis, due to misalignment between the wood fibres and the beam axis. Cross-grain failure can occur in large-scale in a wood member when trees that have grown spirally or with a pronounced taper are cut for lumber. Three patch lengths were tested. The simulations include the possibility of cohesive fracture of the adhesive layer, failure within the wood beam in two propagation planes and patch interlaminar failure, by the use of cohesive zone modelling. The respective cohesive properties were estimated either by an inverse method or from the literature. The comparison with the tests allowed the validation of the proposed methodology, opening a good perspective for the reduction of costs in the design stages of these repairs due to extensive experimentation.

Numerical evaluation of three-dimensional scarf repairs in carbon-epoxy structures

The widespread employment of carbon-epoxy laminates in high responsibility and severely loaded applications introduces an issue regarding their handling after damage. Repair of these structures should be evaluated, instead of their disposal, for cost saving and ecological purposes. Under this perspective, the availability of efficient repair methods is essential to restore the strength of the structure. The development and validation of accurate predictive tools for the repairs behaviour are also extremely important, allowing the reduction of costs and time associated to extensive test programmes. Comparing with strap repairs, scarf repairs have the advantages of a higher efficiency and the absence of aerodynamic disturbance. This work reports on a numerical study of the tensile behaviour of three-dimensional scarf repairs in carbon-epoxy structures, using a ductile adhesive (Araldite® 2015). The finite elements analysis was performed in ABAQUS® and Cohesive Zone Modelling was used for the simulation of damage onset and growth in the adhesive layer. Trapezoidal cohesive laws in each pure mode were used to account for the ductility of the specific adhesive mentioned. A parametric study was performed on the repair width and scarf angle. The use of over-laminating plies covering the repaired region at the outer or both repair surfaces was also tested as an attempt to increase the repairs efficiency. The obtained results allowed the proposal of design principles for repairing composite structures.

Formative assessment and motivation in higher education: a successful approach in mechanical engineer thermodynamics

Between 2000/01 and 2006/07, the approval rate of a Thermodynamics course in a Mechanical Engineer graduation was 25%. However, a careful analysis of the results showed that 41% of the students chosen not to attend or dropped out, missing the final examination. Thus, a continuous assessment methodology was developed, whose purpose was to reduce drop out, motivating students to attend this course, believing that what was observed was due, not to the incapacity to pass, but to the anticipation of the inevitability of failure by the students. If, on one hand, motivation is defined as a broad construct pertaining to the conditions and processes that account for the arousal, direction, magnitude, and maintenance of effort, on the other hand, assessment is one of the most powerful tools to change the will that students have to learn, motivating them to learn in a quicker and permanent way. Some of the practices that were implemented, included: promoting learning goal orientation rather than performance goal orientation; cultivating intrinsic interest in the subject and put less emphasis on grades but make grading criteria explicit; emphasizing teaching approaches that encourage collaboration among students and cater for a range of teaching styles; explaining the reasons for, and the implications of, tests; providing feedback to students about their performance in a form that is non-egoinvolving and non-judgemental and helping students to interpret it; broadening the range of information used in assessing the attainment of individual students. The continuous assessment methodology developed was applied in 2007/08 and 2008/09, having found an increase in the approval from 25% to 55% (30%), accompanied by a decrease of the drop out from 41% to 23,5% (17,5%). Flunking with a numerical grade lowered from 34,4% to 22,0% (12,4%). The perception by the students of the continuous assessment relevance was evaluated with a questionnaire. 70% of the students that failed the course respond that, nevertheless, didn’t repent having done the continuous assessment.

Experimental and numerical study on the evaluation of ventilation efficiency

Buildings account for 40% of total energy consumption in the European Union. The reduction of energy consumption in the buildings sector constitute an important measure needed to reduce the Union's energy dependency and greenhouse gas emissions. The Portuguese legislation incorporate this principles in order to regulate the energy performance of buildings. This energy performance should be accompanied by good conditions for the occupants of the buildings. According to EN 15251 (2007) the four factors that affect the occupant comfort in the buildings are: Indoor Air Quality (IAQ), thermal comfort, acoustics and lighting. Ventilation directly affects all except the lighting, so it is crucial to understand the performance of it. The ventilation efficiency concept therefore earn significance, because it is an attempt to quantify a parameter that can easily distinguish the different options for air diffusion in the spaces. The two indicators most internationally accepted are the Air Change Efficiency (ACE) and the Contaminant Removal Effectiveness (CRE). Nowadays with the developed of the Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) the behaviour of ventilation can be more easily predicted. Thirteen strategies of air diffusion were measured in a test chamber through the application of the tracer gas method, with the objective to validate the calculation by the MicroFlo module of the IES-VE software for this two indicators. The main conclusions from this work were: that the values of the numerical simulations are in agreement with experimental measurements; the value of the CRE is more dependent of the position of the contamination source, that the strategy used for the air diffusion; the ACE indicator is more appropriate for quantifying the quality of the air diffusion; the solutions to be adopted, to maximize the ventilation efficiency should be, the schemes that operate with low speeds of supply air and small differences between supply air temperature and the room temperature.

Numerical solution of a PDE system with non-linear steady state conditions that translates the air stripping pollutants removal

This work deals with the numerical simulation of air stripping process for the pre-treatment of groundwater used in human consumption. The model established in steady state presents an exponential solution that is used, together with the Tau Method, to get a spectral approach of the solution of the system of partial differential equations associated to the model in transient state.