Determining the Adjustment Baseline Parameters to Define an Accurate Customer Baseline Load

Demand response is an energy resource that has gained increasing importance in the context of competitive electricity markets and of smart grids. New business models and methods designed to integrate demand response in electricity markets and of smart grids have been published, reporting the need of additional work in this field. In order to adequately remunerate the participation of the consumers in demand response programs, improved consumers’ performance evaluation methods are needed. The methodology proposed in the present paper determines the characterization of the baseline approach that better fits the consumer historic consumption, in order to determine the expected consumption in absent of participation in a demand response event and then determine the actual consumption reduction. The defined baseline can then be used to better determine the remuneration of the consumer. The paper includes a case study with real data to illustrate the application of the proposed methodology.

Relatório de estágio

O presente relatório, realizado no âmbito do Mestrado em Educação Pré- Escolar e Ensino do 1.º Ciclo do Ensino Básico, pretende fundamentar a Prática Pedagógica Supervisionada desenvolvida em contexto de educação pré-escolar e ensino do 1.º CEB. Será apresentada a contextualização da prática e a importância do trabalho em díade pedagógica, os modelos e metodologias utilizadas em estágio, retratando todo o processo de desenvolvimento profissional e pessoal do mestrando. Os processos formativos basearam-se sempre na metodologia de investigação-ação, quer a formação do mestrando, quer a metodologia de investigação sobre a prática, que permitiu a construção de conhecimentos para a docência. Por este modo, a formação e a prática permitiram desenvolver experiências de ensino que visaram a compreensão das possibilidades de interdisciplinaridade entre as áreas de conteúdo, pela utilização de estratégias diversificadas, de modo a motivar e a envolver as crianças nas aprendizagens. De referir também que todas estas aprendizagens e experiências que foram proporcionadas às crianças, tiveram como base um quadro teórico e metodológico rigoroso. O educador/professor desempenha um papel fundamental na organização e gestão do currículo, e nas estratégias que seleciona. Para as crianças, é fundamental que exista estratégias de motivação e envolvimento, por parte do docente, para criar um ambiente educativo rico em experiências e aprendizagens significativas. Com este ambiente todos vão beneficiar de um ambiente educativo favorável.

Practical Quality Control: Comparision of Methods on the Quantification of Stationary Phases in Paper and Thin-Layer Chromatographic Systems

Introduction: Paper and thin layer chromatography methods are frequently used in Classic Nuclear Medicine for the determination of radiochemical purity (RCP) on radiopharmaceutical preparations. An aliquot of the radiopharmaceutical to be tested is spotted at the origin of a chromatographic strip (stationary phase), which in turn is placed in a chromatographic chamber in order to separate and quantify radiochemical species present in the radiopharmaceutical preparation. There are several methods for the RCP measurement, based on the use of equipment as dose calibrators, well scintillation counters, radiochromatografic scanners and gamma cameras. The purpose of this study was to compare these quantification methods for the determination of RCP. Material and Methods: 99mTc-Tetrofosmin and 99mTc-HDP are the radiopharmaceuticals chosen to serve as the basis for this study. For the determination of RCP of 99mTc-Tetrofosmin we used ITLC-SG (2.5 x 10 cm) and 2-butanone (99mTc-tetrofosmin Rf = 0.55, 99mTcO4- Rf = 1.0, other labeled impurities 99mTc-RH RF = 0.0). For the determination of RCP of 99mTc-HDP, Whatman 31ET and acetone was used (99mTc-HDP Rf = 0.0, 99mTcO4- Rf = 1.0, other labeled impurities RF = 0.0). After the development of the solvent front, the strips were allowed to dry and then imaged on the gamma camera (256x256 matrix; zoom 2; LEHR parallel-hole collimator; 5-minute image) and on the radiochromatogram scanner. Then, strips were cut in Rf 0.8 in the case of 99mTc-tetrofosmin and Rf 0.5 in the case of 99mTc-HDP. The resultant pieces were smashed in an assay tube (to minimize the effect of counting geometry) and counted in the dose calibrator and in the well scintillation counter (during 1 minute). The RCP was calculated using the formula: % 99mTc-Complex = [(99mTc-Complex) / (Total amount of 99mTc-labeled species)] x 100. Statistical analysis was done using the test of hypotheses for the difference between means in independent samples. Results:The gamma camera based method demonstrated higher operator-dependency (especially concerning the drawing of the ROIs) and the measures obtained using the dose calibrator are very sensitive to the amount of activity spotted in the chromatographic strip, so the use of a minimum of 3.7 MBq activity is essential to minimize quantification errors. Radiochromatographic scanner and well scintillation counter showed concordant results and demonstrated the higher level of precision. Conclusions: Radiochromatographic scanners and well scintillation counters based methods demonstrate to be the most accurate and less operator-dependant methods.

Comparative study between two distinct methods for attenuation correction and the use of no-attenuation correction for the assessment of relative uptake of 99mTc-DMSA on pediatric patients

Introduction: Although relative uptake values aren’t the most important objective of a 99mTc-DMSA scan, they are important quantitative information. In most of the dynamic renal scintigraphies attenuation correction is essential if one wants to obtain a reliable result of the quantification process. Although in DMSA scans the absent of significant background and the lesser attenuation in pediatric patients, makes that this attenuation correction techniques are actually not applied. The geometric mean is the most common method, but that includes the acquisition of an anterior (extra) projection, which it is not acquired by a large number of NM departments. This method and the attenuation factors proposed by Tonnesen will be correlated with the absence of attenuation correction procedures. Material and Methods: Images from 20 individuals (aged 3 years +/- 2) were used and the two attenuation correction methods applied. The mean time of acquisition (time post DMSA administration) was 3.5 hours +/- 0.8h. Results: The absence of attenuation correction showed a good correlation with both attenuation methods (r=0.73 +/- 0.11) and the mean difference verified on the uptake values between the different methods were 4 +/- 3. The correlation was higher when the age was lower. The attenuation correction methods correlation was higher between them two than with the “no attenuation correction” method (r=0.82 +/- 0.8), and the mean differences of the uptake values were 2 +/- 2. Conclusion: The decision of not doing any kind of attenuation correction method can be justified by the minor differences verified on the relative kidney uptake values. Nevertheless, if it is recognized that there is a need for an accurate value of the relative kidney uptake, then an attenuation correction method should be used. Attenuation correction factors proposed by Tonnesen can be easily implemented and so become a practical and easy to implement alternative, namely when the anterior projection - needed for the geometric mean methodology – is not acquired.

Electricity markets modeling considering complex contracts and aggregators

All over the world, the liberalization of electricity markets, which follows different paradigms, has created new challenges for those involved in this sector. In order to respond to these challenges, electric power systems suffered a significant restructuring in its mode of operation and planning. This restructuring resulted in a considerable increase of the electric sector competitiveness. Particularly, the Ancillary Services (AS) market has been target of constant renovations in its operation mode as it is a targeted market for the trading of services, which have as main objective to ensure the operation of electric power systems with appropriate levels of stability, safety, quality, equity and competitiveness. In this way, with the increasing penetration of distributed energy resources including distributed generation, demand response, storage units and electric vehicles, it is essential to develop new smarter and hierarchical methods of operation of electric power systems. As these resources are mostly connected to the distribution network, it is important to consider the introduction of this kind of resources in AS delivery in order to achieve greater reliability and cost efficiency of electrical power systems operation. The main contribution of this work is the design and development of mechanisms and methodologies of AS market and for energy and AS joint market, considering different management entities of transmission and distribution networks. Several models developed in this work consider the most common AS in the liberalized market environment: Regulation Down; Regulation Up; Spinning Reserve and Non-Spinning Reserve. The presented models consider different rules and ways of operation, such as the division of market by network areas, which allows the congestion management of interconnections between areas; or the ancillary service cascading process, which allows the replacement of AS of superior quality by lower quality of AS, ensuring a better economic performance of the market. A major contribution of this work is the development an innovative methodology of market clearing process to be used in the energy and AS joint market, able to ensure viable and feasible solutions in markets, where there are technical constraints in the transmission network involving its division into areas or regions. The proposed method is based on the determination of Bialek topological factors and considers the contribution of the dispatch for all services of increase of generation (energy, Regulation Up, Spinning and Non-Spinning reserves) in network congestion. The use of Bialek factors in each iteration of the proposed methodology allows limiting the bids in the market while ensuring that the solution is feasible in any context of system operation. Another important contribution of this work is the model of the contribution of distributed energy resources in the ancillary services. In this way, a Virtual Power Player (VPP) is considered in order to aggregate, manage and interact with distributed energy resources. The VPP manages all the agents aggregated, being able to supply AS to the system operator, with the main purpose of participation in electricity market. In order to ensure their participation in the AS, the VPP should have a set of contracts with the agents that include a set of diversified and adapted rules to each kind of distributed resource. All methodologies developed and implemented in this work have been integrated into the MASCEM simulator, which is a simulator based on a multi-agent system that allows to study complex operation of electricity markets. In this way, the developed methodologies allow the simulator to cover more operation contexts of the present and future of the electricity market. In this way, this dissertation offers a huge contribution to the AS market simulation, based on models and mechanisms currently used in several real markets, as well as the introduction of innovative methodologies of market clearing process on the energy and AS joint market. This dissertation presents five case studies; each one consists of multiple scenarios. The first case study illustrates the application of AS market simulation considering several bids of market players. The energy and ancillary services joint market simulation is exposed in the second case study. In the third case study it is developed a comparison between the simulation of the joint market methodology, in which the player bids to the ancillary services is considered by network areas and a reference methodology. The fourth case study presents the simulation of joint market methodology based on Bialek topological distribution factors applied to transmission network with 7 buses managed by a TSO. The last case study presents a joint market model simulation which considers the aggregation of small players to a VPP, as well as complex contracts related to these entities. The case study comprises a distribution network with 33 buses managed by VPP, which comprises several kinds of distributed resources, such as photovoltaic, CHP, fuel cells, wind turbines, biomass, small hydro, municipal solid waste, demand response, and storage units.

Decision Support for Energy Contracts Negotiation with Game Theory and Adaptive Learning

This paper presents a decision support methodology for electricity market players’ bilateral contract negotiations. The proposed model is based on the application of game theory, using artificial intelligence to enhance decision support method’s adaptive features. This model is integrated in AiD-EM (Adaptive Decision Support for Electricity Markets Negotiations), a multi-agent system that provides electricity market players with strategic behavior capabilities to improve their outcomes from energy contracts’ negotiations. Although a diversity of tools that enable the study and simulation of electricity markets has emerged during the past few years, these are mostly directed to the analysis of market models and power systems’ technical constraints, making them suitable tools to support decisions of market operators and regulators. However, the equally important support of market negotiating players’ decisions is being highly neglected. The proposed model contributes to overcome the existing gap concerning effective and realistic decision support for electricity market negotiating entities. The proposed method is validated by realistic electricity market simulations using real data from the Iberian market operator—MIBEL. Results show that the proposed adaptive decision support features enable electricity market players to improve their outcomes from bilateral contracts’ negotiations.

Performance of state space and ARIMA models for consumer retail sales forecasting

Forecasting future sales is one of the most important issues that is beyond all strategic and planning decisions in effective operations of retail businesses. For profitable retail businesses, accurate demand forecasting is crucial in organizing and planning production, purchasing, transportation and labor force. Retail sales series belong to a special type of time series that typically contain trend and seasonal patterns, presenting challenges in developing effective forecasting models. This work compares the forecasting performance of state space models and ARIMA models. The forecasting performance is demonstrated through a case study of retail sales of five different categories of women footwear: Boots, Booties, Flats, Sandals and Shoes. On both methodologies the model with the minimum value of Akaike's Information Criteria for the in-sample period was selected from all admissible models for further evaluation in the out-of-sample. Both one-step and multiple-step forecasts were produced. The results show that when an automatic algorithm the overall out-of-sample forecasting performance of state space and ARIMA models evaluated via RMSE, MAE and MAPE is quite similar on both one-step and multi-step forecasts. We also conclude that state space and ARIMA produce coverage probabilities that are close to the nominal rates for both one-step and multi-step forecasts.