9 resultados para Mean Squared Error

em Instituto Politécnico do Porto, Portugal


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O documento em anexo encontra-se na versão post-print (versão corrigida pelo editor).

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The performance of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model in wind simulation was evaluated under different numerical and physical options for an area of Portugal, located in complex terrain and characterized by its significant wind energy resource. The grid nudging and integration time of the simulations were the tested numerical options. Since the goal is to simulate the near-surface wind, the physical parameterization schemes regarding the boundary layer were the ones under evaluation. Also, the influences of the local terrain complexity and simulation domain resolution on the model results were also studied. Data from three wind measuring stations located within the chosen area were compared with the model results, in terms of Root Mean Square Error, Standard Deviation Error and Bias. Wind speed histograms, occurrences and energy wind roses were also used for model evaluation. Globally, the model accurately reproduced the local wind regime, despite a significant underestimation of the wind speed. The wind direction is reasonably simulated by the model especially in wind regimes where there is a clear dominant sector, but in the presence of low wind speeds the characterization of the wind direction (observed and simulated) is very subjective and led to higher deviations between simulations and observations. Within the tested options, results show that the use of grid nudging in simulations that should not exceed an integration time of 2 days is the best numerical configuration, and the parameterization set composed by the physical schemes MM5–Yonsei University–Noah are the most suitable for this site. Results were poorer in sites with higher terrain complexity, mainly due to limitations of the terrain data supplied to the model. The increase of the simulation domain resolution alone is not enough to significantly improve the model performance. Results suggest that error minimization in the wind simulation can be achieved by testing and choosing a suitable numerical and physical configuration for the region of interest together with the use of high resolution terrain data, if available.

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The behavior of robotic manipulators with backlash is analyzed. Based on the pseudo-phase plane two indices are proposed to evaluate the backlash effect upon the robotic system: the root mean square error and the fractal dimension. For the dynamical analysis the noisy signals captured from the system are filtered through wavelets. Several tests are developed that demonstrate the coherence of the results.

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In the present paper we assess the performance of information-theoretic inspired risks functionals in multilayer perceptrons with reference to the two most popular ones, Mean Square Error and Cross-Entropy. The information-theoretic inspired risks, recently proposed, are: HS and HR2 are, respectively, the Shannon and quadratic Rényi entropies of the error; ZED is a risk reflecting the error density at zero errors; EXP is a generalized exponential risk, able to mimic a wide variety of risk functionals, including the information-thoeretic ones. The experiments were carried out with multilayer perceptrons on 35 public real-world datasets. All experiments were performed according to the same protocol. The statistical tests applied to the experimental results showed that the ubiquitous mean square error was the less interesting risk functional to be used by multilayer perceptrons. Namely, mean square error never achieved a significantly better classification performance than competing risks. Cross-entropy and EXP were the risks found by several tests to be significantly better than their competitors. Counts of significantly better and worse risks have also shown the usefulness of HS and HR2 for some datasets.

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Electricity markets are complex environments, involving a large number of different entities, playing in a dynamic scene to obtain the best advantages and profits. MASCEM is a multi-agent electricity market simu-lator to model market players and simulate their operation in the market. Market players are entities with specific characteristics and objectives, making their decisions and interacting with other players. MASCEM pro-vides several dynamic strategies for agents’ behaviour. This paper presents a method that aims to provide market players strategic bidding capabilities, allowing them to obtain the higher possible gains out of the market. This method uses an auxiliary forecasting tool, e.g. an Artificial Neural Net-work, to predict the electricity market prices, and analyses its forecasting error patterns. Through the recognition of such patterns occurrence, the method predicts the expected error for the next forecast, and uses it to adapt the actual forecast. The goal is to approximate the forecast to the real value, reducing the forecasting error.

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Mestrado em Engenharia Electrotécnica – Sistemas Eléctricos de Energia

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A eletromiografia é, hoje em dia, uma das técnicas mais utilizadas no estudo dos músculos, estando presente em áreas como a medicina, a biomecânica e a fisiologia, possibilitando o desenvolvimento científico e contribuindo para proporcionar melhorias na qualidade da vida humana. Sendo assim, este trabalho apresenta um protótipo de um aparelho de aquisição de sinais eletromiográficos, explicando também toda a teoria, técnicas, componentes utilizadas e softwares que estiveram presentes na sua implementação. De uma forma sucinta, para a aquisição do sinal eletromiográfico usou-se uma placa de aquisição NI-USB 6009 e para a visualização do mesmo recorreu-se ao software LabVIEW. Para validar o sinal adquirido com o equipamento desenvolvido, utilizou-se um outro equipamento, o Biopac MP36 Student Lab System, fazendo-se assim recolhas de sinais eletromiográficos com ambos os equipamentos. Os sinais recolhidos pelos dois equipamentos foram analisados no software Acknowledge 3.9.0 (Biopac Systems, Inc.), podendo observar-se os espetros de frequência correspondentes a cada sinal e retirar valores para posterior análise estatística. Feita essa análise, concluiu-se que não foram detetadas diferenças significativas entre os sinais eletromiográficos recolhidos com ambos os equipamentos, validando-se assim, o equipamento desenvolvido.

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The use of bit error models in communication simulation has been widely studied. In this technical report we present three models: the Independent Channel Model; the Gilbert-Elliot Model and the Burst-Error Periodic Model.

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This paper addresses the calculation of fractional order expressions through rational fractions. The article starts by analyzing the techniques adopted in the continuous to discrete time conversion. The problem is re-evaluated in an optimization perspective by tacking advantage of the degree of freedom provided by the generalized mean formula. The results demonstrate the superior performance of the new algorithm.