Long-term price range forecast applied to risk management using regression models

Long-term contractual decisions are the basis of an efficient risk management. However those types of decisions have to be supported with a robust price forecast methodology. This paper reports a different approach for long-term price forecast which tries to give answers to that need. Making use of regression models, the proposed methodology has as main objective to find the maximum and a minimum Market Clearing Price (MCP) for a specific programming period, and with a desired confidence level α. Due to the problem complexity, the meta-heuristic Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) was used to find the best regression parameters and the results compared with the obtained by using a Genetic Algorithm (GA). To validate these models, results from realistic data are presented and discussed in detail.

Short- and medium-term effects of manual therapy on cervical active range of motion and pressure pain sensitivity in latent myofascial pain of the upper trapezius muscle: a randomized controlled trial

Objective: The purpose of this study was to investigate effects of different manual techniques on cervical ranges of 17 motion and pressure pain sensitivity in subjects with latent trigger point of the upper trapezius muscle. 18 Methods: One hundred seventeen volunteers, with a unilateral latent trigger point on upper trapezius due to computer 19 work, were randomly divided into 5 groups: ischemic compression (IC) group (n = 24); passive stretching group (n = 20 23); muscle energy technique group (n = 23); and 2 control groups, wait-and-see group (n = 25) and placebo group 21 (n = 22). Cervical spine range of movement was measured using a cervical range of motion instrument as well as 22 pressure pain sensitivity by means of an algometer and a visual analog scale. Outcomes were assessed pretreatment, 23 immediately, and 24 hours after the intervention and 1 week later by a blind researcher. A 4 × 5 mixed repeated- 24 measures analysis of variance was used to examine the effects of the intervention and Cohen d coefficient was used. 25 Results: A group-by-time interaction was detected in all variables (P b .01), except contralateral rotation. The 26 immediate effect sizes of the contralateral flexion, ipsilateral rotation, and pressure pain threshold were large for 3 27 experimental groups. Nevertheless, after 24 hours and 1 week, only IC group maintained the effect size. 28 Conclusions: Manual techniques on upper trapezius with latent trigger point seemed to improve the cervical range of 29 motion and the pressure pain sensitivity. These effects persist after 1 week in the IC group. (J Manipulative Physiol 301 Ther 2013;xx:1-10)

A qualitative description of soil parameters variation due to a prescribed fire in Portuguese northwestern forests using Fuzzy Boolean Nets — The case study of Cabreira mountain

In this paper we study the modifications that occurred in some forest soil properties after a prescribed fire. The research focused on the alterations of soil pH, soil moisture and soil organic matter content during a two-year span, from 2008 to 2009. The study site is located in Anjos, Vieira do Minho municipality, a forest site that has suffered from recurrent wildfires for several decades. Furze (Ulex, sp.), broom (Cytisus, sp.), gorse (Chamaespartum tridentatum) and a very few disperse adult pine (Pinus sylvestris) are the predominant vegetation type in the study area. The average height of this shrub vegetation is around 1.5 m. The prescribed fire was conducted by the National Forestry Authority (AFN) in November 2008. Fuzzy Boolean Nets (FBN) were used to evaluate the alteration in soil parameters when compared with adjacent spots where: i) no fire occurrence was registered since 1998; ii) fire occurrence was registered in 2008; and iii) vegetation pruning by mechanical cut was done in Spring six months prior to the prescribed fire event. Results suggest that in the particular case of the studied site, Anjos, the observed soil properties alterations cannot be related with the prescribed fire.

CANDi: context-aware node discovery for short-range cooperation

Multi-standard mobile devices are allowing users to enjoy higher data rates with ubiquitous connectivity. However, the benefits gained from multiple interfaces come at an expense—that being higher energy consumption in an era where mobile devices need to be energy compliant. One promising solution is the usage of short-range cooperative communication as an overlay for infrastructure-based networks taking advantage of its context information. However, the node discovery mechanism, which is pivotal to the bearer establishment process, still represents a major burden in terms of the total energy budget. In this paper, we propose a technology agnostic approach towards enhancing the MAC energy ratings by presenting a context-aware node discovery (CANDi) algorithm, which provides a priori knowledge towards the node discovery mechanism by allowing it to search nodes in the near vicinity at the ‘right time and at the right place’. We describe the different beacons required for establishing the cooperation, as well as the context information required, including battery level, modes, location and so on. CANDi uses the long-range network (WiMAX and WiFi) to distribute the context information about cooperative clusters (Ultra-wideband-based) in the vicinity. The searching nodes can use this context in locating the cooperative clusters/nodes, which facilitates the establishing of short-range connections. Analytical and simulation results are obtained, and the energy saving gains are further demonstrated in the laboratory using a customised testbed. CANDi saves up to 50% energy during the node discovery process, while the demonstrative testbed shows up to 75% savings in the total energy budget, thus validating the algorithm, as well as providing viable evidence to support the usage of short-range cooperative communications for energy savings.

Determination of Microcystin-LR in waters in the subnanomolar range by sol–gel imprinted polymers on solid contact electrodes

The present work reports new sensors for the direct determination of Microcystin-LR (MC-LR) in environmental waters. Both selective membrane and solid contact were optimized to ensure suitable analytical features in potentiometric transduction. The sensing layer consisted of Imprinted Sol–Gel (ISG) materials capable of establishing surface interactions with MC-LR. Non-Imprinted Sol–Gel (NISG) membranes were used as negative control. The effects of an ionic lipophilic additive, time of sol–gel polymerization, time of extraction of MC-LR from the sensitive layer, and pH were also studied. The solid contact was made of carbon, aluminium, titanium, copper or nickel/chromium alloys (80 : 20 or 90 : 10). The best ISG sensor had a carbon solid contact and displayed average slopes of 211.3 mV per decade, with detection limits of 7.3 1010 M, corresponding to 0.75 mg L1 . It showed linear responses in the range of 7.7 1010 to 1.9 109 M of MC-LR (corresponding to 0.77–2.00 mg L1 ), thus including the limiting value for MC-LR in waters (1.0 mg L1 ). The potentiometric-selectivity coefficients were assessed by the matched potential method for ionic species regularly found in waters up to their limiting levels. Chloride (Cl) showed limited interference while aluminium (Al3+), ammonium (NH4 + ), magnesium (Mg2+), manganese (Mn2+), sodium (Na+ ), and sulfate (SO4 2) were unable to cause the required potential change. Spiked solutions were tested with the proposed sensor. The relative errors and standard deviation obtained confirmed the accuracy and precision of the method. It also offered the advantages of low cost, portability, easy operation and suitability for adaptation to flow methods.