Long-term dependence in financial prices: evidence from the Belgian stock market returns

This article aims to contribute to the discussion of long-term dependence, focusing on the behavior of the main Belgian stock index. Non-parametric analyzes of the general characteristics of temporal frequency show that daily returns are non-ergodic and non-stationary. Therefore, we use the rescaled-range analysis (R/S) and the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA), under the fractional Brownian motion approach, and we found slight evidence of long-term dependence. These results refute the random walk hypothesis with i.i.d. increments, which is the basis of the EMH in its weak form, and call into question some theoretical modeling of asset pricing. Other more localized complementary study, to identify the evolution of the degree of dependence over time windows, showed that the index has become less persistent from 2010. This may mean a maturing market by the extension of the effects of current financial crisis.

Long-term price range forecast applied to risk management using regression models

Long-term contractual decisions are the basis of an efficient risk management. However those types of decisions have to be supported with a robust price forecast methodology. This paper reports a different approach for long-term price forecast which tries to give answers to that need. Making use of regression models, the proposed methodology has as main objective to find the maximum and a minimum Market Clearing Price (MCP) for a specific programming period, and with a desired confidence level α. Due to the problem complexity, the meta-heuristic Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) was used to find the best regression parameters and the results compared with the obtained by using a Genetic Algorithm (GA). To validate these models, results from realistic data are presented and discussed in detail.

A long-term swarm intelligence hedging tool applied to electricity markets

This paper proposes a swarm intelligence long-term hedging tool to support electricity producers in competitive electricity markets. This tool investigates the long-term hedging opportunities available to electric power producers through the use of contracts with physical (spot and forward) and financial (options) settlement. To find the optimal portfolio the producer risk preference is stated by a utility function (U) expressing the trade-off between the expectation and the variance of the return. Variance estimation and the expected return are based on a forecasted scenario interval determined by a long-term price range forecast model, developed by the authors, whose explanation is outside the scope of this paper. The proposed tool makes use of Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) and its performance has been evaluated by comparing it with a Genetic Algorithm (GA) based approach. To validate the risk management tool a case study, using real price historical data for mainland Spanish market, is presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.

A long-term risk management tool for electricity markets using swarm intelligence

This paper addresses the optimal involvement in derivatives electricity markets of a power producer to hedge against the pool price volatility. To achieve this aim, a swarm intelligence meta-heuristic optimization technique for long-term risk management tool is proposed. This tool investigates the long-term opportunities for risk hedging available for electric power producers through the use of contracts with physical (spot and forward contracts) and financial (options contracts) settlement. The producer risk preference is formulated as a utility function (U) expressing the trade-off between the expectation and the variance of the return. Variance of return and the expectation are based on a forecasted scenario interval determined by a long-term price range forecasting model. This model also makes use of particle swarm optimization (PSO) to find the best parameters allow to achieve better forecasting results. On the other hand, the price estimation depends on load forecasting. This work also presents a regressive long-term load forecast model that make use of PSO to find the best parameters as well as in price estimation. The PSO technique performance has been evaluated by comparison with a Genetic Algorithm (GA) based approach. A case study is presented and the results are discussed taking into account the real price and load historical data from mainland Spanish electricity market demonstrating the effectiveness of the methodology handling this type of problems. Finally, conclusions are dully drawn.

Influence of long-term wearing of unstable shoes on compensatory control of posture: An electromyography-based analysis

Purpose: This study investigated the influence of long-term wearing of unstable shoes (WUS) on compensatory postural adjustments (CPA) to an external perturbation. Methods: Participants were divided into two groups: one wore unstable shoes while the other wore conventional shoes for 8 weeks. The ground reaction force signal was used to calculate the anterior– posterior (AP) displacement of the centre of pressure (CoP) and the electromyographic signal of gastrocnemius medialis (GM), tibialis anterior (TA), rectus femoris (RF) and biceps femoris (BF) muscles was used to assess individual muscle activity, antagonist co-activation and reciprocal activation at the joint (TA/GM and RF/(BF + GM) pairs) and muscle group levels (ventral (TA + RF)/dorsal (GM + BF) pair) within time intervals typical for CPA. The electromyographic signal was also used to assess muscle latency. The variables described were evaluated before and after the 8-week period while wearing the unstable shoes and barefoot. Results: Long-term WUS led to: an increase of BF activity in both conditions (barefoot and wearing the unstable shoes); a decrease of GM activity; an increase of antagonist co-activation and a decrease of reciprocal activation level at the TA/GM and ventral/dorsal pairs in the unstable shoe condition. Additionally, WUS led to a decrease in CoP displacement. However, no differences were observed in muscle onset and offset. Conclusion: Results suggest that the prolonged use of unstable shoes leads to increased ankle and muscle groups’ antagonist co-activation levels and higher performance by the postural control system.

Short- and medium-term effects of manual therapy on cervical active range of motion and pressure pain sensitivity in latent myofascial pain of the upper trapezius muscle: a randomized controlled trial

Objective: The purpose of this study was to investigate effects of different manual techniques on cervical ranges of 17 motion and pressure pain sensitivity in subjects with latent trigger point of the upper trapezius muscle. 18 Methods: One hundred seventeen volunteers, with a unilateral latent trigger point on upper trapezius due to computer 19 work, were randomly divided into 5 groups: ischemic compression (IC) group (n = 24); passive stretching group (n = 20 23); muscle energy technique group (n = 23); and 2 control groups, wait-and-see group (n = 25) and placebo group 21 (n = 22). Cervical spine range of movement was measured using a cervical range of motion instrument as well as 22 pressure pain sensitivity by means of an algometer and a visual analog scale. Outcomes were assessed pretreatment, 23 immediately, and 24 hours after the intervention and 1 week later by a blind researcher. A 4 × 5 mixed repeated- 24 measures analysis of variance was used to examine the effects of the intervention and Cohen d coefficient was used. 25 Results: A group-by-time interaction was detected in all variables (P b .01), except contralateral rotation. The 26 immediate effect sizes of the contralateral flexion, ipsilateral rotation, and pressure pain threshold were large for 3 27 experimental groups. Nevertheless, after 24 hours and 1 week, only IC group maintained the effect size. 28 Conclusions: Manual techniques on upper trapezius with latent trigger point seemed to improve the cervical range of 29 motion and the pressure pain sensitivity. These effects persist after 1 week in the IC group. (J Manipulative Physiol 301 Ther 2013;xx:1-10)

Long-term memory in financial prices: evidence from the Dutch stock market returns

Prepared for presentation at the Portuguese Finance Network International Conference 2014, Vilamoura, Portugal, June 18-20

Expatriates recruitment and selection for long-term international assignments in portuguese companies

Long-term international assignments’ increase requires more attention being paid for the preparation of these foreign assignments, especially on the recruitment and selection process of expatriates. This article explores how the recruitment and selection process of expatriates is developed in Portuguese companies, examining the main criteria on recruitment and selection of expatriates’ decision to send international assignments. The paper is based on qualitative case studies of companies located in Portugal. The data were collected through semi-structured interviews of 42 expatriates and 18 organisational representatives as well from nine Portuguese companies. The findings show that the most important criteria are: (1) trust from managers, (2) years in service, (3) previous technical and language competences, (4) organisational knowledge and, (5) availability. Based on the findings, the article discusses in detail the main theoretical and managerial implications. Suggestions for further research are also presented.

TURTLE: Systems and technologies for deep ocean long term presence

This paper describes the TURTLE project that aim to develop sub-systems with the capability of deep-sea long-term presence. Our motivation is to produce new robotic ascend and descend energy efficient technologies to be incorporated in robotic vehicles used by civil and military stakeholders for underwater operations. TURTLE contribute to the sustainable presence and operations in the sea bottom. Long term presence on sea bottom, increased awareness and operation capabilities in underwater sea and in particular on benthic deeps can only be achieved through the use of advanced technologies, leading to automation of operation, reducing operational costs and increasing efficiency of human activity.

Immediate effects of hip mobilization with movement in patients with hip osteoarthritis: A randomised controlled trial

Background Mobilization with movement (MWM) has been shown to reduce pain, increase range of motion (ROM) and physical function in a range of different musculoskeletal disorders. Despite this evidence, there is a lack of studies evaluating the effects of MWM for hip osteoarthritis (OA). Objectives To determine the immediate effects of MWM on pain, ROM and functional performance in patients with hip OA. Design Randomized controlled trial with immediate follow-up. Method Forty consenting patients (mean age 78 ± 6 years; 54% female) satisfied the eligibility criteria. All participants completed the study. Two forms of MWM techniques (n = 20) or a simulated MWM (sham) (n = 20) were applied. Primary outcomes: pain recorded by numerical rating scale (NRS). Secondary outcomes: hip flexion and internal rotation ROM, and physical performance (timed up and go, sit to stand, and 40 m self placed walk test) were assessed before and after the intervention. Results For the MWM group, pain decreased by 2 points on the NRS, hip flexion increased by 12.2°, internal rotation by 4.4°, and functional tests were also improved with clinically relevant effects following the MWM. There were no significant changes in the sham group for any outcome variable. Conclusions Pain, hip flexion ROM and physical performance immediately improved after the application of MWM in elderly patients suffering hip OA. The observed immediate changes were of clinical relevance. Future studies are required to determine the long-term effects of this intervention.

Effects of Aerobic Exercise Associated with Abdominal Microcurrent: A Preliminary Study

Objective: To analyze the short- and long-term effects of microcurrent used with aerobic exercise on abdominal fat (visceral and subcutaneous). Methods: Forty-two female students from a university population were randomly assigned into five group: intervention group (IG) 1 (n=9), IG2 (n=9), IG3 (n=7), IG4 (n=8), and placebo group (PG) (n=9). An intervention program of 10 sessions encompassing microcurrent and aerobic exercise (performed with a cycloergometer) was applied in all groups, with slightly differences between them. In IG1 and IG2, microcurrent with transcutaneous electrodes was applied, with different frequency values; 30-minute exercise on the cycloergometer was subsequently performed. IG3 used the same protocol as IG1 but with different electrodes (percutaneous), while in IG4 the microcurrent was applied simultaneously with the cycloergometer exercise. Finally, the PG used the IG1 protocol but with the microcurrent device switched off. All groups were evaluated through ultrasound and abdominal perimeter measurement for visceral and subcutaneous abdominal fat assessment; through calipers for skinfolds measurement; through bioimpedance to evaluate weight, fat mass percentage, and muscular mass; and through blood analyses to measure cholesterol, triglyceride, and glucose levels. Results: After intervention sessions, visceral fat decreased significantly in IG1 compared with the PG. Subcutaneous fat was reduced significantly in all groups compared with the PG. After 4 weeks, almost all results were maintained. Conclusion: The addition of microcurrent to aerobic exercise may reduce fat more than does aerobic exercise alone.

Responses of the alga Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata to long-term exposure to metal stress

The green alga Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata has been widely used in ecological risk assessment, usually based on the impact of the toxicants in the alga growth. However, the physiological causes that lead algal growth inhibition are not completely understood. This work aimed to evaluate the biochemical and structural modifications in P. subcapitata after exposure, for 72 h, to three nominal concentrations of Cd(II), Cr(VI), Cu(II) and Zn(II), corresponding approximately to 72 h-EC10 and 72 h-EC50 values and a high concentration (above 72 h-EC90 values). The incubation of algal cells with the highest concentration of Cd(II), Cr(VI) or Cu(II) resulted in a loss of membrane integrity of ~16, 38 and 55%, respectively. For all metals tested, an inhibition of esterase activity, in a dose-dependent manner, was observed. Reduction of chlorophyll a content, decrease of maximum quantum yield of photosystem II and modification of mitochondrial membrane potential was also verified. In conclusion, the exposure of P. subcapitata to metals resulted in a perturbation of the cell physiological status. Principal component analysis revealed that the impairment of esterase activity combined with the reduction of chlorophyll a content were related with the inhibition of growth caused by a prolonged exposure to the heavy metals.

Exploring the long-term associations between adolescents’ music training and academic achievement

There is a positive relationship between learning music and academic achievement, although doubts remain regarding the mechanisms underlying this association. This research analyses the academic performance of music and non-music students from seventh to ninth grade. The study controls for socioeconomic status, intelligence, motivation and prior academic achievement. Data were collected from 110 adolescents at two time points, once when the students were between 11 and 14 years old in the seventh grade, and again 3 years later. Our results show that music students perform better academically than non-music students in the seventh grade (Cohen’s d = 0.88) and in the ninth grade (Cohen’s d = 1.05). This difference is particularly evident in their scores in Portuguese language and natural science; the difference is somewhat weaker in history and geography scores, and is least pronounced in mathematics and English scores (η2 p from .09 to .21). A longitudinal analysis also revealed better academic performance by music students after controlling for prior academic achievement (η2 p = .07). Furthermore, controlling for intelligence, socioeconomic status and motivation did not eliminate the positive association between music learning from the seventh to the ninth grade and students’ academic achievement (η2 p = .06). During the period, music students maintained better and more consistent academic standing. We conclude that, after controlling for intelligence, socioeconomic status and motivation, music training is positively associated with academic achievement.