Age-period-cohort effects in the incidence of hip fractures: political and economic events are coincident with changes in risk

Introduction: Healthcare improvements have allowed prevention but have also increased life expectancy, resulting in more people being at risk. Our aim was to analyse the separate effects of age, period and cohort on incidence rates by sex in Portugal, 2000–2008. Methods: From the National Hospital Discharge Register, we selected admissions (aged ≥49 years) with hip fractures (ICD9-CM, codes 820.x) caused by low/moderate trauma (falls from standing height or less), readmissions and bone cancer cases. We calculated person-years at risk using population data from Statistics Portugal. To identify period and cohort effects for all ages, we used an age–period–cohort model (1-year intervals) followed by generalised additive models with a negative binomial distribution of the observed incidence rates of hip fractures. Results: There were 77,083 hospital admissions (77.4 % women). Incidence rates increased exponentially with age for both sexes (age effect). Incidence rates fell after 2004 for women and were random for men (period effect). There was a general cohort effect similar in both sexes; risk of hip fracture altered from an increasing trend for those born before 1930 to a decreasing trend following that year. Risk alterations (not statistically significant) coincident with major political and economic change in the history of Portugal were observed around birth cohorts 1920 (stable–increasing), 1940 (decreasing–increasing) and 1950 (increasing–decreasing only among women). Conclusions: Hip fracture risk was higher for those born during major economically/politically unstable periods. Although bone quality reflects lifetime exposure, conditions at birth may determine future risk for hip fractures.

Field experiments for marine casualty detection with autonomous surface vehicles

In this paper we present a set of field tests for detection of human in the water with an unmanned surface vehicle using infrared and color cameras. These experiments aimed to contribute in the development of victim target tracking and obstacle avoidance for unmanned surface vehicles operating in marine search and rescue missions. This research is integrated in the work conducted in the European FP7 research project Icarus aiming to develop robotic tools for large scale rescue operations. The tests consisted in the use of the ROAZ unmanned surface vehicle equipped with a precision GPS system for localization and both visible spectrum and IR cameras to detect the target. In the experimental setup, the test human target was deployed in the water wearing a life vest and a diver suit (thus having lower temperature signature in the body except hands and head) and was equipped with a GPS logger. Multiple target approaches were performed in order to test the system with different sun incidence relative angles. The experimental setup, detection method and preliminary results from the field trials performed in the summer of 2013 in Sesimbra, Portugal and in La Spezia, Italy are also presented in this work.