Power Law Behavior and Self-similarity in Modern Industrial Accidents

Advances in technology have produced more and more intricate industrial systems, such as nuclear power plants, chemical centers and petroleum platforms. Such complex plants exhibit multiple interactions among smaller units and human operators, rising potentially disastrous failure, which can propagate across subsystem boundaries. This paper analyzes industrial accident data-series in the perspective of statistical physics and dynamical systems. Global data is collected from the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT) during the time period from year 1903 up to 2012. The statistical distributions of the number of fatalities caused by industrial accidents reveal Power Law (PL) behavior. We analyze the evolution of the PL parameters over time and observe a remarkable increment in the PL exponent during the last years. PL behavior allows prediction by extrapolation over a wide range of scales. In a complementary line of thought, we compare the data using appropriate indices and use different visualization techniques to correlate and to extract relationships among industrial accident events. This study contributes to better understand the complexity of modern industrial accidents and their ruling principles.

Effects of early life permethrin exposure on spatial working memory and on monoamine levels in different brain areas of pre-senescent rats

Pesticide exposure during brain development could represent an important risk factor for the onset of neurodegenerative diseases. Previous studies investigated the effect of permethrin (PERM) administered at 34 mg/kg, a dose close to the no observable adverse effect level (NOAEL) from post natal day (PND) 6 to PND 21 in rats. Despite the PERM dose did not elicited overt signs of toxicity (i.e. normal body weight gain curve), it was able to induce striatal neurodegeneration (dopamine and Nurr1 reduction, and lipid peroxidation increase). The present study was designed to characterize the cognitive deficits in the current animal model. When during late adulthood PERM treated rats were tested for spatial working memory performances in a T-maze-rewarded alternation task they took longer to choose for the correct arm in comparison to age matched controls. No differences between groups were found in anxiety-like state, locomotor activity, feeding behavior and spatial orientation task. Our findings showing a selective effect of PERM treatment on the T-maze task point to an involvement of frontal cortico-striatal circuitry rather than to a role for the hippocampus. The predominant disturbances concern the dopamine (DA) depletion in the striatum and, the serotonin (5-HT) and noradrenaline (NE) unbalance together with a hypometabolic state in the medial prefrontal cortex area. In the hippocampus, an increase of NE and a decrease of DA were observed in PERM treated rats as compared to controls. The concentration of the most representative marker for pyrethroid exposure (3-phenoxybenzoic acid) measured in the urine of rodents 12 h after the last treatment was 41.50 µ/L and it was completely eliminated after 96 h.

Effects of treatment, awareness and condom use in a coinfection model for HIV and HCV in MSM

We develop a new a coinfection model for hepatitis C virus (HCV) and the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). We consider treatment for both diseases, screening, unawareness and awareness of HIV infection, and the use of condoms. We study the local stability of the disease-free equilibria for the full model and for the two submodels (HCV only and HIV only submodels). We sketch bifurcation diagrams for different parameters, such as the probabilities that a contact will result in a HIV or an HCV infection. We present numerical simulations of the full model where the HIV, HCV and double endemic equilibria can be observed. We also show numerically the qualitative changes of the dynamical behavior of the full model for variation of relevant parameters. We extrapolate the results from the model for actual measures that could be implemented in order to reduce the number of infected individuals.