A short-term risk management tool applied to OMEL electricity market using particle swarm optimization

Short-term risk management is highly dependent on long-term contractual decisions previously established; risk aversion factor of the agent and short-term price forecast accuracy. Trying to give answers to that problem, this paper provides a different approach for short-term risk management on electricity markets. Based on long-term contractual decisions and making use of a price range forecast method developed by the authors, the short-term risk management tool presented here has as main concern to find the optimal spot market strategies that a producer should have for a specific day in function of his risk aversion factor, with the objective to maximize the profits and simultaneously to practice the hedge against price market volatility. Due to the complexity of the optimization problem, the authors make use of Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) to find the optimal solution. Results from realistic data, namely from OMEL electricity market, are presented and discussed in detail.

Classification Performance of Multilayer Perceptrons with Different Risk Functionals

In the present paper we assess the performance of information-theoretic inspired risks functionals in multilayer perceptrons with reference to the two most popular ones, Mean Square Error and Cross-Entropy. The information-theoretic inspired risks, recently proposed, are: HS and HR2 are, respectively, the Shannon and quadratic Rényi entropies of the error; ZED is a risk reflecting the error density at zero errors; EXP is a generalized exponential risk, able to mimic a wide variety of risk functionals, including the information-thoeretic ones. The experiments were carried out with multilayer perceptrons on 35 public real-world datasets. All experiments were performed according to the same protocol. The statistical tests applied to the experimental results showed that the ubiquitous mean square error was the less interesting risk functional to be used by multilayer perceptrons. Namely, mean square error never achieved a significantly better classification performance than competing risks. Cross-entropy and EXP were the risks found by several tests to be significantly better than their competitors. Counts of significantly better and worse risks have also shown the usefulness of HS and HR2 for some datasets.

Risk Acceptance in the Furniture Sector: Analysis of Acceptance Level and Relevant Influence Factors

Risk acceptance has been broadly discussed in relation to hazardous risk activities and/or technologies. A better understanding of risk acceptance in occupational settings is also important; however, studies on this topic are scarce. It seems important to understand the level of risk that stakeholders consider sufficiently low, how stakeholders form their opinion about risk, and why they adopt a certain attitude toward risk. Accordingly, the aim of this study is to examine risk acceptance in regard to occupational accidents in furniture industries. The safety climate analysis was conducted through the application of the Safety Climate in Wood Industries questionnaire. Judgments about risk acceptance, trust, risk perception, benefit perception, emotions, and moral values were measured. Several models were tested to explain occupational risk acceptance. The results showed that the level of risk acceptance decreased as the risk level increased. High-risk and death scenarios were assessed as unacceptable. Risk perception, emotions, and trust had an important influence on risk acceptance. Safety climate was correlated with risk acceptance and other variables that influence risk acceptance. These results are important for the risk assessment process in terms of defining risk acceptance criteria and strategies to reduce risks.

Diagnóstico de higiene e segurança no trabalho: proposta de medidas correctivas

O trabalho que é de seguida apresentado foi desenvolvido durante o estágio efectuado no Instituto de Desenvolvimento e Inovação Tecnológica (IDIT), tendo em vista a realização de um projecto de fim de Mestrado em Engenharia Química no ramo de Tecnologias de Protecção Ambiental. O projecto teve como principal objectivo a elaboração de um diagnóstico de Segurança, Higiene e Saúde no Trabalho tendo por base as medições de factores de riscos, efectuadas numa empresa pertencente ao sector da alimentação, e o seu respectivo enquadramento legal. A realização deste trabalho consistiu na avaliação de factores físicos e químicos presentes em todas as actividades industriais, que podem constituir riscos para a higiene, saúde e segurança dos trabalhadores. Os factores considerados neste estudo foram: o ruído, a iluminância, as vibrações, o ambiente térmico e os contaminantes químicos. Ao longo do trabalho são apresentados os resultados obtidos nas avaliações efectuadas e a sua análise, que permitiu o conhecimento das condições de trabalho, para as diversas actividades desempenhadas na empresa, revelando as não concordâncias dos factores estudados. Segundo os resultados obtidos conclui-se que a empresa apresenta condições de Higiene, Saúde e Segurança bastantes satisfatórias, apresentando apenas algumas não conformidades, particularmente nos níveis de pressão sonora. No entanto, estas não conformidades podem ser contornadas com a aplicação de medidas correctivas previstas no enquadramento legal que abrange cada factor avaliado. A escassez de tempo não permitiu a elaboração de um diagnóstico de HST completo, uma vez que, uma análise de risco completa necessita de um estudo mais aprofundado na área e uma prática considerável, que não foi possível adquirir até então.

Risk criteria in occupational environments: critical overview and discussion

The current work can be seen as a starting point for the discussion of the problematic on risk acceptance criteria in occupational environments. Some obstacles to the quantitative acceptance criteria formulation and use were analyzed. A look to the long tradition of major hazards accidents was also performed. This work shows that organizations can have several difficulties in acceptance criteria formulation and that the use of pre-defined acceptance criteria in risk assessment methodologies can be inadequate in some cases. It is urgent to define guidelines that can help organizations in the formulation of risk acceptance criteria for occupational environments.

Photostabilization of phenoxyacetic acid herbicides MCPA and mecoprop by hydroxypropyl-β-cyclodextrin

New strategies to reduce the environmental and economic costs of pesticides use are currently under study. Microencapsulation has been used as a versatile tool for the production of controlled release agricultural formulations. In this study, the photochemical degradation of the herbicides MCPA and mecoprop has been investigated in different aqueous media such as ultrapure and river water under simulated solar irradiation. To explore the possibility of introducing cyclodextrins in the herbicide formulations, the photodegradation study of the inclusion complexes of MCPA and mecoprop with (2-hydroxypropyl)-β-cyclodextrin (HP-β-CD) was also performed. The half-lives of MCPA and mecoprop inclusion complexes were increased approximately by a factor of three related to the free molecules. Additionally, it has been shown that the photodegradation of MCPA and mecoprop is influenced by their structural features. The additional methyl group existing in mecoprop molecular structure has a positive influence on the stabilization of the radical intermediate formed in the first stage of photodegradation of both herbicides. The results found indicated that MCPA and mecoprop form inclusion complexes with HP-β-CD showing higher photostability compared to free herbicides indicating that HP-β-CD may serve as ingredient in these herbicide formulations.

Assigning real-time tasks on heterogeneous multiprocessors with two unrelated types of processors

A preliminary version of this paper appeared in Proceedings of the 31st IEEE Real-Time Systems Symposium, 2010, pp. 239–248.

Increasing the wear resistance of molds for injection of glass fiber reinforced plastics

Abrasion by glass fibers during injection molding of fiber reinforced plastics raises new challenges to the wear performance of the molds. In the last few decades, a large number of PVD and CVD coatings have been developed with the aim of minimizing abrasion problems. In this work, two different coatings were tested in order to increase the wear resistance of the surface of a mold used for glass fiber reinforced plastics: TiAlSiN and CrN/CrCN/DLC. TiAlSiN was deposited as a graded monolayer coating while CrN/CrCN/DLC was a nanostructured coating consisting of three distinct layers. Both coatings were produced by PVD unbalanced magnetron sputtering and were characterized using scanning electron microscopy (SEM) provided with energy dispersive spectroscopy (EDS), atomic force microscopy (AFM), micro hardness (MH) and scratch test analysis. Coating morphology, thickness, roughness, chemical composition and structure, hardness and adhesion to the substrate were investigated. Wear resistance was characterized through industrial tests with coated samples and an uncoated reference sample inserted in a feed channel of a plastic injection mold working with 30 wt.% glass fiber reinforced polypropylene. Results after 45,000 injection cycles indicate that the wear resistance of the mold was increased by a factor of 25 and 58, by the TiAlSiN and CrN/CrCN/DLC coatings, respectively, over the uncoated mold steel.

Occupational risk in a glass manufacturing industry unit

Risk assessment is one of the main pillars of the framework directive and other directives in respect of health and safety. It is also the basis of an effective management of safety and health as it is essential to reduce work-related accidents and occupational diseases. To survey the hazards eventually present in the workplaces the usual procedures are i) gathering information about tasks/activities, employees, equipment, legislation and standards; ii) observation of the tasks and; iii) quantification of respective risks through the most adequate risk assessment among the methodologies available. From this preliminary evaluation of a welding plant and, from the different measurable parameters, noise was considered the most critical. This paper focus not only the usual way of risk assessment for noise but also another approach that may allow us to identify the technique with which a weld is being performed.

Enterprise Risk Management e o seu impacto no desempenho das empresas: Estudo de caso de seis instituições financeiras nacionais

Dissertação de Mestrado apresentado ao Instituto de Contabilidade e Administração do Porto para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Auditoria, sob orientação do Mestre Fernando Teixeira Pinto

Safety climate and its relationship with furniture companies’ safety performance and workers’ risk acceptance

This study aims to analyse the relationship between safety climate and the level of risk acceptance, as well as its relationship with workplace safety performance. The sample includes 14 companies and 403 workers. The safety climate assessment was performed by the application of a Safety Climate in Wood Industries questionnaire and safety performance was assessed with a checklist. Judgements about risk acceptance were measured through questionnaires together with four other variables: trust, risk perception, benefit perception and emotion. Safety climate was found to be correlated with workgroup safety performance, and it also plays an important role in workers’ risk acceptance levels. Risk acceptance tends to be lower when safety climate scores of workgroups are high, and subsequently, their safety performance is better. These findings seem to be relevant, as they provide Occupational, Safety and Health practitioners with a better understanding of workers’ risk acceptance levels and of the differences among workgroups.

Defining risk acceptance criteria in occupational settings: A case study in the furniture industrial sector

The use of appropriate acceptance criteria in the risk assessment process for occupational accidents is an important issue but often overlooked in the literature, particularly when new risk assessment methods are proposed and discussed. In most cases, there is no information on how or by whom they were defined, or even how companies can adapt them to their own circumstances. Bearing this in mind, this study analysed the problem of the definition of risk acceptance criteria for occupational settings, defining the quantitative acceptance criteria for the specific case study of the Portuguese furniture industrial sector. The key steps to be considered in formulating acceptance criteria were analysed in the literature review. By applying the identified steps, the acceptance criteria for the furniture industrial sector were then defined. The Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) for the injury statistics of the industrial sector was identified as the maximum tolerable risk level. The acceptable threshold was defined by adjusting the CDF to the Occupational, Safety & Health (OSH) practitioners’ risk acceptance judgement. Adjustments of acceptance criteria to the companies’ safety cultures were exemplified by adjusting the Burr distribution parameters. An example of a risk matrix was also used to demonstrate the integration of the defined acceptance criteria into a risk metric. This work has provided substantial contributions to the issue of acceptance criteria for occupational accidents, which may be useful in overcoming the practical difficulties faced by authorities, companies and experts.

Sertraline accumulation and effects in the estuarine decapod Carcinusmaenas: Importance of the history of exposure to chemical stress

Sertraline is widely prescribed worldwide and frequently detected in aquatic systems. There is, however, a remarkable gap of information on its potential impact on estuarine and coastal invertebrates. This study investigated sertraline accumulation and effects in Carcinus maenas. Crabs from a moderately contaminated (Lima) and a low-impacted (Minho) estuary were exposed to environmental and high levels of sertraline (0.05, 5, 500 μg L−1). A battery of biomarkers related to sertraline mode of action was employed to assess neurotransmission, energy metabolism, biotransformation and oxidative stress pathways. After a seven-day exposure, sertraline accumulation in crabs’ soft tissues was found in Lima (5 μg L−1: 15.3 ng L−1 ww; 500 μg L−1: 1010 ng L−1 ww) and Minho (500 μg L−1: 605 ng L−1 ww) animals. Lima crabs were also more sensitive to sertraline than those from Minho, exhibiting decreased acetylcholinesterase activity, indicative of ventilatory and locomotory dysfunction, inhibition of anti-oxidant enzymes and increased oxidative damage at ≥0.05 μg L−1. The Integrated Biomarker Response (IBR) index indicated their low health status. In addition, Minho crabs showed non-monotonic responses of acetylcholinesterase suggestive of hormesis. The results pointed an influence of the exposure history on differential sensitivity to sertraline and the need to perform evaluations with site-specific ecological receptors to increase relevance of risk estimations when extrapolating from laboratory to field conditions.

Influence of Hydroxypropyl- β -Cyclodextrin on the Photostability of Fungicide Pyrimethanil

Pesticides continue to play an important role in pest management. However, the intensive pesticide application has triggered several environment negative effects that cannot be disregarded. In this study, the inclusion complex of pyrimethanil with HP- β -CD has been prepared and characterized by proton nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy. The formation of the pyrimethanil/HP- β -CD inclusion complex increased the aqueous solubility of this fungicide around five times. To assess the influence of microencapsulation on the environmental photostability of the fungicide, the photochemical degradation of pyrimethanil and pyrimethanil/HP- β -CD inclusion complex has been investigated in different aqueous media such as ultrapure and river water under simulated solar irradiation. The studies allow concluding that pyrimethanil/HP- β -CD inclusion complex increases significantly the photostability of the fungicide in aqueous solutions, especially in natural water. Actually, the half-life of pyrimethanil/HP- β -CD inclusion complex was increased approximately by a factor of four when compared to the free fungicide. The overall results point out that pyrimethanil can be successfully encapsulated by HP- β -CD, a process that can improve its solubility and photostability properties.

Influence of cardiorespiratory fitness and parental lifestyle on adolescents' abdominal obesity

The aims of this study were (1) to analyse the influence of cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) and parental overweight status (POS) and socioeconomic status (SES) on abdominal obesity. This study was comprised of 779 adolescents (12-18 years). Waist-height ratio (WHtR), 20 m shuttle-run test to ascertain CRF, POS according to World Health Organization recommendations and SES of parents using level of education were analysed. Using WHtR, the prevalence of abdominal obesity was 21.3% (23.5% girls and 17.9% boys; p = 0.062). Regardless of gender, participants who belonged to the WHtR risk group had significantly (p ≤ 0.05) lower CRF scores than the WHtR non-risk group; 84.4% of girls who belonged to the WHtR risk group had one or two overweight parents (p ≤ 0.05). Boys with low CRF (OR: 6.43; CI: 3.33-12.39) were more likely to belong to the WHtR risk group compared with their lean peers. Girls with low CRF (OR: 1.78; CI: 1.14-2.78) and with at least one overweight parent (OR: 2.50; CI: 1.07-5.85) or two overweight parents (OR: 4.90; CI: 2.08-11.54) were associated with the risk of abdominal obesity. This study highlights the influence of adolescents' family on abdominal obesity, especially in girls. Further, the data suggested that low CRF was a strong predictor of risk values of abdominal obesity in adolescence.