3 resultados para Expectations-driven business cycles

em Instituto Politécnico do Porto, Portugal


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This paper analyzes the Portuguese short-run business cycles over the last 150 years and presents the multidimensional scaling (MDS) for visualizing the results. The analytical and numerical assessment of this long-run perspective reveals periods with close connections between the macroeconomic variables related to government accounts equilibrium, balance of payments equilibrium, and economic growth. The MDS method is adopted for a quantitative statistical analysis. In this way, similarity clusters of several historical periods emerge in the MDS maps, namely, in identifying similarities and dissimilarities that identify periods of prosperity and crises, growth, and stagnation. Such features are major aspects of collective national achievement, to which can be associated the impact of international problems such as the World Wars, the Great Depression, or the current global financial crisis, as well as national events in the context of broad political blueprints for the Portuguese society in the rising globalization process.

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This paper presents a novel method for the analysis of nonlinear financial and economic systems. The modeling approach integrates the classical concepts of state space representation and time series regression. The analytical and numerical scheme leads to a parameter space representation that constitutes a valid alternative to represent the dynamical behavior. The results reveal that business cycles can be clearly revealed, while the noise effects common in financial indices can elegantly be filtered out of the results.

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Dissertação apresentada ao Instituto Superior de Contabilidade e Administração do Porto para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Gestão das Organizações, Ramo Gestão de Empresas Orientador: Professor Doutor Eduardo Manuel Lopes de Sá e Silva Co-orientador: Mestre Maria de Fátima Mendes Monteiro