Adaptive learning in multiagent systems: a forecasting methodology based on error analysis

Electricity markets are complex environments, involving a large number of different entities, playing in a dynamic scene to obtain the best advantages and profits. MASCEM is a multi-agent electricity market simu-lator to model market players and simulate their operation in the market. Market players are entities with specific characteristics and objectives, making their decisions and interacting with other players. MASCEM pro-vides several dynamic strategies for agents’ behaviour. This paper presents a method that aims to provide market players strategic bidding capabilities, allowing them to obtain the higher possible gains out of the market. This method uses an auxiliary forecasting tool, e.g. an Artificial Neural Net-work, to predict the electricity market prices, and analyses its forecasting error patterns. Through the recognition of such patterns occurrence, the method predicts the expected error for the next forecast, and uses it to adapt the actual forecast. The goal is to approximate the forecast to the real value, reducing the forecasting error.

Global material analysis on phosphorus flows, supply horizon and impact assessment on phosphorus depletion

Different problems are daily discuss on environmental aspects such acid rain, eutrophication, global warming and an others problems. Rarely do we find some discussions about phosphorus problematic. Through the years the phosphorus as been a real problem and must be more discussed. On this thesis was done a global material flow analysis of phosphorus, based on data from the year 2004, the production of phosphate rock in that year was 18.9 million tones, almost this amount it was used as fertilizer on the soil and the plants only can uptake, on average, 20% of the input of fertilizer to grow up, the remainder is lost for the phosphorus soil. In the phosphorus soil there is equilibrium between the phosphorus available to uptake from the plants and the phosphorus associate with other compounds, this equilibrium depends of the kind of soil and is related with the soil pH. A reserve inventory was done and we have 15,000 million tones as reserve, the amount that is economical available. The reserve base is estimated in 47,000 million tones. The major reserves can be found in Morocco and Western Sahara, United Sates, China and South Africa. The reserve estimated in 2009 was 15,000 million tone of phosphate rock or 1,963 million tone of P. If every year the mined phosphate rock is around 22 Mt/yr (phosphorus production on 2008 USGS 2009), and each year the consumption of phosphorus increases because of the food demand, the reserves of phosphate rock will be finished in about 90 years, or maybe even less. About the value/impact assessment was done a qualitative analysis, if on the future we don’t have more phosphate rock to produce fertilizers, it is expected a drop on the crops yields, each depends of the kind of the soil and the impact on the humans feed and animal production will not be a relevant problem. We can recovery phosphorus from different waste streams such as ploughing crop residues back into the soil, Food processing plants and food retailers, Human and animal excreta, Meat and bone meal, Manure fibre, Sewage sludge and wastewater. Some of these examples are developed in the paper.

Evaluation of dynamic pass-through of carbon prices into electricity prices – a cointegrated VECM analysis

This paper addresses the impact of the CO2 opportunity cost on the wholesale electricity price in the context of the Iberian electricity market (MIBEL), namely on the Portuguese system, for the period corresponding to the Phase II of the European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS). In the econometric analysis a vector error correction model (VECM) is specified to estimate both long–run equilibrium relations and short–run interactions between the electricity price and the fuel (natural gas and coal) and carbon prices. The model is estimated using daily spot market prices and the four commodities prices are jointly modelled as endogenous variables. Moreover, a set of exogenous variables is incorporated in order to account for the electricity demand conditions (temperature) and the electricity generation mix (quantity of electricity traded according the technology used). The outcomes for the Portuguese electricity system suggest that the dynamic pass–through of carbon prices into electricity prices is strongly significant and a long–run elasticity was estimated (equilibrium relation) that is aligned with studies that have been conducted for other markets.

An analysis of the impact of bus contention on the WCET in multicores

The use of multicores is becoming widespread inthe field of embedded systems, many of which have real-time requirements. Hence, ensuring that real-time applications meet their timing constraints is a pre-requisite before deploying them on these systems. This necessitates the consideration of the impact of the contention due to shared lowlevel hardware resources like the front-side bus (FSB) on the Worst-CaseExecution Time (WCET) of the tasks. Towards this aim, this paper proposes a method to determine an upper bound on the number of bus requests that tasks executing on a core can generate in a given time interval. We show that our method yields tighter upper bounds in comparison with the state of-the-art. We then apply our method to compute the extra contention delay incurred by tasks, when they are co-scheduled on different cores and access the shared main memory, using a shared bus, access to which is granted using a round-robin arbitration (RR) protocol.

Force and pressure analysis during occasional loaded gait

O documento em anexo encontra-se na versão pre-print (versão inicial enviada para o editor).

Private cloud computing platforms. Analysis and implementation in a Higher Education Institution

The constant evolution of the Internet and its increasing use and subsequent entailing to private and public activities, resulting in a strong impact on their survival, originates an emerging technology. Through cloud computing, it is possible to abstract users from the lower layers to the business, focusing only on what is most important to manage and with the advantage of being able to grow (or degrades) resources as needed. The paradigm of cloud arises from the necessity of optimization of IT resources evolving in an emergent and rapidly expanding and technology. In this regard, after a study of the most common cloud platforms and the tactic of the current implementation of the technologies applied at the Institute of Biomedical Sciences of Abel Salazar and Faculty of Pharmacy of Oporto University a proposed evolution is suggested in order adorn certain requirements in the context of cloud computing.

Citrate selective electrodes for the flow injection analysis of soft drinks, beers and pharmaceutical products

Aiming the establishment of simple and accurate readings of citric acid (CA) in complex samples, citrate (CIT) selective electrodes with tubular configuration and polymeric membranes plus a quaternary ammonium ion exchanger were constructed. Several selective membranes were prepared for this purpose, having distinct mediator solvents (with quite different polarities) and, in some cases, p-tert-octylphenol (TOP) as additive. The latter was used regarding a possible increase in selectivity. The general working characteristics of all prepared electrodes were evaluated in a low dispersion flow injection analysis (FIA) manifold by injecting 500µl of citrate standard solutions into an ionic strength (IS) adjuster carrier (10−2 mol l−1) flowing at 3ml min−1. Good potentiometric response, with an average slope and a repeatability of 61.9mV per decade and ±0.8%, respectively, resulted from selective membranes comprising additive and bis(2-ethylhexyl)sebacate (bEHS) as mediator solvent. The same membranes conducted as well to the best selectivity characteristics, assessed by the separated solutions method and for several chemical species, such as chloride, nitrate, ascorbate, glucose, fructose and sucrose. Pharmaceutical preparations, soft drinks and beers were analyzed under conditions that enabled simultaneous pH and ionic strength adjustment (pH = 3.2; ionic strength = 10−2 mol l−1), and the attained results agreed well with the used reference method (relative error < 4%). The above experimental conditions promoted a significant increase in sensitivity of the potentiometric response, with a supra-Nernstian slope of 80.2mV per decade, and allowed the analysis of about 90 samples per hour, with a relative standard deviation <1.0%.

Construction and evaluation of cysteine selective electrodes for FIA analysis of pharmaceuticals

A flow injection analysis (FIA) system comprising a cysteine selective electrode as detection system was developed for determination of this amino acid in pharmaceuticals. Several electrodes were constructed for this purpose, having PVC membranes with different ionic exchangers and mediator solvents. Better working characteristics were attained with membranes comprising o-nitrophenyl octyl ether as mediator solvent and a tetraphenylborate based ionic-sensor. Injection of 500 µL standard solutions into an ionic strength adjuster carrier (3x10-3 M) of barium chloride flowing at 2.4mL min-1, showed linearity ranges from 5.0x10-5 to 5.0x10-3 M, with slopes of 76.4±0.6mV decade-1 and R2>0.9935. Slope decreased significantly under the requirement of a pH adjustment, selected at 4.5. Interference of several compounds (sodium, potassium, magnesium, barium, glucose, fructose, and sucrose) was estimated by potentiometric selectivity coefficients and considered negligible. Analysis of real samples were performed and considered accurate, with a relative error to an independent method of +2.7%.

Accounting for the dissociating properties of organic chemicals in LCIA: an uncertainty analysis applied to micropollutants in the assessment of freshwater ecotoxicity

In life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) models, the sorption of the ionic fraction of dissociating organic chemicals is not adequately modeled because conventional non-polar partitioning models are applied. Therefore, high uncertainties are expected when modeling the mobility, as well as the bioavailability for uptake by exposed biota and degradation, of dissociating organic chemicals. Alternative regressions that account for the ionized fraction of a molecule to estimate fate parameters were applied to the USEtox model. The most sensitive model parameters in the estimation of ecotoxicological characterization factors (CFs) of micropollutants were evaluated by Monte Carlo analysis in both the default USEtox model and the alternative approach. Negligible differences of CFs values and 95% confidence limits between the two approaches were estimated for direct emissions to the freshwater compartment; however the default USEtox model overestimates CFs and the 95% confidence limits of basic compounds up to three orders and four orders of magnitude, respectively, relatively to the alternative approach for emissions to the agricultural soil compartment. For three emission scenarios, LCIA results show that the default USEtox model overestimates freshwater ecotoxicity impacts for the emission scenarios to agricultural soil by one order of magnitude, and larger confidence limits were estimated, relatively to the alternative approach.

Multidimensional scaling analysis of the dynamics of a country economy

This paper analyzes the Portuguese short-run business cycles over the last 150 years and presents the multidimensional scaling (MDS) for visualizing the results. The analytical and numerical assessment of this long-run perspective reveals periods with close connections between the macroeconomic variables related to government accounts equilibrium, balance of payments equilibrium, and economic growth. The MDS method is adopted for a quantitative statistical analysis. In this way, similarity clusters of several historical periods emerge in the MDS maps, namely, in identifying similarities and dissimilarities that identify periods of prosperity and crises, growth, and stagnation. Such features are major aspects of collective national achievement, to which can be associated the impact of international problems such as the World Wars, the Great Depression, or the current global financial crisis, as well as national events in the context of broad political blueprints for the Portuguese society in the rising globalization process.

Ethernet-based systems: contributions to the holistic analysis

A number of characteristics are boosting the eagerness of extending Ethernet to also cover factory-floor distributed real-time applications. Full-duplex links, non-blocking and priority-based switching, bandwidth availability, just to mention a few, are characteristics upon which that eagerness is building up. But, will Ethernet technologies really manage to replace traditional Fieldbus networks? To this question, Fieldbus fundamentalists often argue that the two technologies are not comparable. In fact, Ethernet technology, by itself, does not include features above the lower layers of the OSI communication model. Where are the higher layers that permit building real industrial applications? And, taking for free that they are available, what is the impact of those protocols, mechanisms and application models on the overall performance of Ethernetbased distributed factory-floor applications? In this paper we provide some contributions that may pave the way towards providing some reasonable answers to these issues.

Dynamical analysis of the global warming

Global warming is a major concern nowadays. Weather conditions are changing, and it seems that human activity is one of the main causes. In fact, since the beginning of the industrial revolution, the burning of fossil fuels has increased the nonnatural emissions of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. Carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas that absorbs the infrared radiation produced by the reflection of the sunlight on the Earth’s surface, trapping the heat in the atmosphere. Global warming and the associated climate changes are being the subject of intensive research due to their major impact on social, economic, and health aspects of human life. This paper studies the global warming trend in the perspective of dynamical systems and fractional calculus, which is a new standpoint in this context. Worldwide distributed meteorological stations and temperature records for the last 100 years are analysed. It is shown that the application of Fourier transforms and power law trend lines leads to an assertive representation of the global warming dynamics and a simpler analysis of its characteristics.

WCET analysis considering contention on memory bus in COTS-based multicores

The usage of COTS-based multicores is becoming widespread in the field of embedded systems. Providing realtime guarantees at design-time is a pre-requisite to deploy real-time systems on these multicores. This necessitates the consideration of the impact of the contention due to shared low-level hardware resources on the Worst-Case Execution Time (WCET) of the tasks. As a step towards this aim, this paper first identifies the different factors that make the WCET analysis a challenging problem in a typical COTS-based multicore system. Then, we propose and prove, a mathematically correct method to determine tight upper bounds on the WCET of the tasks, when they are co-scheduled on different cores.

Analysis of temperature time-series: embedding dynamics into the MDS method

Global warming and the associated climate changes are being the subject of intensive research due to their major impact on social, economic and health aspects of the human life. Surface temperature time-series characterise Earth as a slow dynamics spatiotemporal system, evidencing long memory behaviour, typical of fractional order systems. Such phenomena are difficult to model and analyse, demanding for alternative approaches. This paper studies the complex correlations between global temperature time-series using the Multidimensional scaling (MDS) approach. MDS provides a graphical representation of the pattern of climatic similarities between regions around the globe. The similarities are quantified through two mathematical indices that correlate the monthly average temperatures observed in meteorological stations, over a given period of time. Furthermore, time dynamics is analysed by performing the MDS analysis over slices sampling the time series. MDS generates maps describing the stations’ locus in the perspective that, if they are perceived to be similar to each other, then they are placed on the map forming clusters. We show that MDS provides an intuitive and useful visual representation of the complex relationships that are present among temperature time-series, which are not perceived on traditional geographic maps. Moreover, MDS avoids sensitivity to the irregular distribution density of the meteorological stations.

GTS allocation analysis in IEEE 802.15.4 for real-time wireless sensor networks

The IEEE 802.15.4 protocol proposes a flexible communication solution for Low-Rate Wireless Personal Area Networks including sensor networks. It presents the advantage to fit different requirements of potential applications by adequately setting its parameters. When enabling its beacon mode, the protocol makes possible real-time guarantees by using its Guaranteed Time Slot (GTS) mechanism. This paper analyzes the performance of the GTS allocation mechanism in IEEE 802.15.4. The analysis gives a full understanding of the behavior of the GTS mechanism with regards to delay and throughput metrics. First, we propose two accurate models of service curves for a GTS allocation as a function of the IEEE 802.15.4 parameters. We then evaluate the delay bounds guaranteed by an allocation of a GTS using Network Calculus formalism. Finally, based on the analytic results, we analyze the impact of the IEEE 802.15.4 parameters on the throughput and delay bound guaranteed by a GTS allocation. The results of this work pave the way for an efficient dimensioning of an IEEE 802.15.4 cluster.