14 resultados para Dependent Failures, Interactive Failures, Interactive Coefficients, Reliability, Complex System
em Instituto Politécnico do Porto, Portugal
Resumo:
Presented at 21st IEEE International Conference on Embedded and Real-Time Computing Systems and Applications (RTCSA 2015). 19 to 21, Aug, 2015, pp 122-131. Hong Kong, China.
Resumo:
This paper proposes a new methodology to reduce the probability of occurring states that cause load curtailment, while minimizing the involved costs to achieve that reduction. The methodology is supported by a hybrid method based on Fuzzy Set and Monte Carlo Simulation to catch both randomness and fuzziness of component outage parameters of transmission power system. The novelty of this research work consists in proposing two fundamentals approaches: 1) a global steady approach which deals with building the model of a faulted transmission power system aiming at minimizing the unavailability corresponding to each faulted component in transmission power system. This, results in the minimal global cost investment for the faulted components in a system states sample of the transmission network; 2) a dynamic iterative approach that checks individually the investment’s effect on the transmission network. A case study using the Reliability Test System (RTS) 1996 IEEE 24 Buses is presented to illustrate in detail the application of the proposed methodology.
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This thesis presents the Fuzzy Monte Carlo Model for Transmission Power Systems Reliability based studies (FMC-TRel) methodology, which is based on statistical failure and repair data of the transmission power system components and uses fuzzyprobabilistic modeling for system component outage parameters. Using statistical records allows developing the fuzzy membership functions of system component outage parameters. The proposed hybrid method of fuzzy set and Monte Carlo simulation based on the fuzzy-probabilistic models allows catching both randomness and fuzziness of component outage parameters. A network contingency analysis to identify any overloading or voltage violation in the network is performed once obtained the system states. This is followed by a remedial action algorithm, based on Optimal Power Flow, to reschedule generations and alleviate constraint violations and, at the same time, to avoid any load curtailment, if possible, or, otherwise, to minimize the total load curtailment, for the states identified by the contingency analysis. For the system states that cause load curtailment, an optimization approach is applied to reduce the probability of occurrence of these states while minimizing the costs to achieve that reduction. This methodology is of most importance for supporting the transmission system operator decision making, namely in the identification of critical components and in the planning of future investments in the transmission power system. A case study based on Reliability Test System (RTS) 1996 IEEE 24 Bus is presented to illustrate with detail the application of the proposed methodology.
Resumo:
No presente trabalho procura-se evidenciar algumas soluções para aplicação de simulação estocástica num contexto de gestão dos ativos, aplicado a um sistema de abastecimento de água, tirando partido da informação disponível sobre a manutenção que vem realizando, ao longo dos anos. Procura-se também descrever como estas metodologias podem ser aplicadas noutros casos, futuramente, beneficiando ainda da recolha de informação de colaboradores da empresa, com experiência no cargo e com elevado conhecimento do funcionamento das infraestruturas. A simulação estocástica é uma área cujas ferramentas podem dar uma preciosa ajuda no processo de tomada de decisão. Por outro lado, as organizações preocupam-se, cada vez mais, com o tema da gestão de ativos e com os custos a si associados, começando a investir mais tempo e dinheiro nessa matéria com o objetivo de delinearem estratégias para aumentar o período de vida útil dos seus ativos e otimizarem os seus investimentos de renovação. Nesse contexto, evidencia-se que um adequado plano de intervenções de manutenção e operação é uma boa metodologia, para garantir a redução de falhas no sistema de abastecimento de uma empresa desse setor, bem como garantir que as infraestruturas se encontram em condições de funcionamento. Contudo, esta abordagem tradicional não será suficiente para garantir as melhores práticas e os objetivos que se pretendem alcançar com uma gestão de ativos atual. O trabalho inclui, ainda, um estudo de caso com que se aplicaram as ferramentas estudadas a um caso real de um grupo de bombagem, de uma das Estações Elevatórias da empresa.
Fuzzy Monte Carlo mathematical model for load curtailment minimization in transmission power systems
Resumo:
This paper presents a methodology which is based on statistical failure and repair data of the transmission power system components and uses fuzzyprobabilistic modeling for system component outage parameters. Using statistical records allows developing the fuzzy membership functions of system component outage parameters. The proposed hybrid method of fuzzy set and Monte Carlo simulation based on the fuzzy-probabilistic models allows catching both randomness and fuzziness of component outage parameters. A network contingency analysis to identify any overloading or voltage violation in the network is performed once obtained the system states by Monte Carlo simulation. This is followed by a remedial action algorithm, based on optimal power flow, to reschedule generations and alleviate constraint violations and, at the same time, to avoid any load curtailment, if possible, or, otherwise, to minimize the total load curtailment, for the states identified by the contingency analysis. In order to illustrate the application of the proposed methodology to a practical case, the paper will include a case study for the Reliability Test System (RTS) 1996 IEEE 24 BUS.
Resumo:
In this paper we analyze the behavior of tornado time-series in the U.S. from the perspective of dynamical systems. A tornado is a violently rotating column of air extending from a cumulonimbus cloud down to the ground. Such phenomena reveal features that are well described by power law functions and unveil characteristics found in systems with long range memory effects. Tornado time series are viewed as the output of a complex system and are interpreted as a manifestation of its dynamics. Tornadoes are modeled as sequences of Dirac impulses with amplitude proportional to the events size. First, a collection of time series involving 64 years is analyzed in the frequency domain by means of the Fourier transform. The amplitude spectra are approximated by power law functions and their parameters are read as an underlying signature of the system dynamics. Second, it is adopted the concept of circular time and the collective behavior of tornadoes analyzed. Clustering techniques are then adopted to identify and visualize the emerging patterns.
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This paper studies forest fires from the perspective of dynamical systems. Burnt area, precipitation and atmospheric temperatures are interpreted as state variables of a complex system and the correlations between them are investigated by means of different mathematical tools. First, we use mutual information to reveal potential relationships in the data. Second, we adopt the state space portrait to characterize the system’s behavior. Third, we compare the annual state space curves and we apply clustering and visualization tools to unveil long-range patterns. We use forest fire data for Portugal, covering the years 1980–2003. The territory is divided into two regions (North and South), characterized by different climates and vegetation. The adopted methodology represents a new viewpoint in the context of forest fires, shedding light on a complex phenomenon that needs to be better understood in order to mitigate its devastating consequences, at both economical and environmental levels.
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Atmospheric temperatures characterize Earth as a slow dynamics spatiotemporal system, revealing long-memory and complex behavior. Temperature time series of 54 worldwide geographic locations are considered as representative of the Earth weather dynamics. These data are then interpreted as the time evolution of a set of state space variables describing a complex system. The data are analyzed by means of multidimensional scaling (MDS), and the fractional state space portrait (fSSP). A centennial perspective covering the period from 1910 to 2012 allows MDS to identify similarities among different Earth’s locations. The multivariate mutual information is proposed to determine the “optimal” order of the time derivative for the fSSP representation. The fSSP emerges as a valuable alternative for visualizing system dynamics.
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A adoção da metodologia BIM (Building Information Modeling) é vista como um processo transformador que engloba as empresas e os seus projetos e, em última instância, toda a Indústria da Construção Civil. Devido ao facto de que o BIM é um complexo sistema cuja implementação tem impactos sociais, técnicos e metodológicos, este tema há já alguns anos que tem sido alvo de pesquisas com o objetivo primordial de difundir as práticas associadas ao BIM nas empresas, nos seus projetos, e na indústria. Um pouco por todo mundo, várias iniciativas de entidades públicas e privadas, governamentais e não-governamentais, têm produzido guias, normas, manuais e outros documentos que funcionam como um motor propulsor da implementação BIM. O presente trabalho contém a proposta de um Guia de Implementação da Metodologia BIM, desenvolvido no contexto do um estágio curricular levado a cabo na empresa Building Information Modeling & Management Solutions (BIMMS) e que resultou do estudo e adaptação de alguns dos mais conceituados guias, normas e manuais BIM existentes e em vigor noutros países. Este documento de caráter técnico e prático foi concebido para servir o propósito de auxiliar gabinetes de Engenharia, Arquitetura, e empresas de Construção na integração do BIM na sua atividade e foi elaborado com o intuito de poder ser divulgado e utilizado como referência a nível nacional.
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When exploring a virtual environment, realism depends mainly on two factors: realistic images and real-time feedback (motions, behaviour etc.). In this context, photo realism and physical validity of computer generated images required by emerging applications, such as advanced e-commerce, still impose major challenges in the area of rendering research whereas the complexity of lighting phenomena further requires powerful and predictable computing if time constraints must be attained. In this technical report we address the state-of-the-art on rendering, trying to put the focus on approaches, techniques and technologies that might enable real-time interactive web-based clientserver rendering systems. The focus is on the end-systems and not the networking technologies used to interconnect client(s) and server(s).
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In this paper, we intend to present some research carried out in a state Primary school, which is very well-equipped with ICT resources, including interactive whiteboards. The interactive whiteboard was used in the context of a Unit of Work for English learning, based on a traditional oral story, ‘Jack and the Beanstalk’. It was also used for reinforcing other topics like, ‘At the beach’, ‘In the city’, ‘Jobs’, etc. An analysis of the use of the digital board, which includes observation records as well as questionnaires for teachers and pupils, was carried out.
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Interactive products are appealing objects in a technology-driven society and the offer in the market is wide and varied. Most of the existing interactive products only provide either light or sound experiences. Therefore, the goal of this project was to develop a product aimed for children combining both features. This project was developed by a team of four thirdyear students with different engineering backgrounds and nationalities during the European Project Semester at ISEP (EPS@ISEP) in 2012. This paper presents the process that led to the development of an interactive sound table that combines nine identical interaction blocks, a control block and a sound block. Each interaction block works independently and is composed of four light emitting diodes (LED) and one infrared (IR) sensor. The control is performed by an Arduino microcontroller and the sound block includes a music shield and a pair of loud speakers. A number of tests were carried out to assess whether the controller, IR sensors, LED, music shield and speakers work together properly and if the ensemble was a viable interactive light and sound device for children.
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Os Transformadores de potência são máquinas de elevada importância ao nível dos Sistemas Elétricos de Energia (SEE) uma vez que são estas máquinas que possibilitam a interligação dos diferentes níveis de tensão da rede e a transmissão de energia elétrica em Corrente Alternada (CA). Geralmente, estas máquinas são de grandes dimensões e de elevado nível de complexidade construtiva. Caracterizam-se por possuírem períodos de vida útil bastante elevados (vinte a trinta anos) e preços elevados, o que conduz a um nível de exigência de fiabilidade muito elevada, uma vez que não e viável a existência de muitos equipamentos de reserva nos SEE. Com o objetivo de tentar maximizar o período de vida útil dos transformadores de potência e a sua fiabilidade, tenta-se, cada vez mais, implementar conceitos de manutenção preventiva a este tipo de máquinas. No entanto, a gestão da sua vida útil e extremamente complexa na medida em que, estas máquinas têm vários componentes cruciais e suscetiveis de originar falhas e, quase todos eles, encontram-se no interior de uma cuba. Desta forma, não e possível obter uma imagem do seu estado, em tempo real, sem colocar o transformador fora de serviço, algo que acarreta custos elevados. Por este motivo, desenvolveu-se uma técnica que permite obter uma indicação do estado do transformador, em tempo real, sem o retirar de serviço, colhendo amostras do óleo isolante e procedendo a sua análise físico-química e Analise Gases Dissolvidos (DGA). As análises aos óleos isolantes tem vindo a adquirir uma preponderância muito elevada no diagnóstico de falhas e na analise do estado de conservação destes equipamentos tendo-se desenvolvido regras para interpretação dos parâmetros dos óleos com carácter normativo. Considerando o conhecimento relativo a interpretação dos ensaios físico-químicos e DGA ao oleol, e possível desenvolver ferramentas capazes de otimizar essas mesmas interpretações e aplicar esse conhecimento no sentido de prever a sua evolução, assim como o surgimento de possíveis falhas em transformadores, para assim otimizar os processos de manutenção. Neste campo as Redes Neuronais Artificiais (RNAs) têm um papel fundamental
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Post-MAPS is a web platform that collects gastroenterological exam data from several european hospital centers, to be used in future clinical studies and was developed in partnership with experts from the gastroenterological area and information technology (IT) technicians. However, although functional, this platform has some issues that are crucial for its functioning, and can render user interaction unpleasant and exhaustive. Accordingly, we proposed the development of a new web platform, in which we aimed for an improvement in terms of usability, data uni cation and interoperability. Therefore, it was necessary to identify and study different ways of acquiring clinical data and review some of the existing clinical databases in order to understand how they work and what type of data they store, as well as their impact and contribution to clinical knowledge. Closely linked to the data model is the ability to share data with other systems, so, we also studied the concept of interoperability and analyzed some of the most widely used international standards, such as DICOM, HL7 and openEHR. As one of the primary objectives of this project was to achieve a better level of usability, practices related to Human Computer-Interaction, such as requirement analysis, creation of conceptual models, prototyping, and evaluation were also studied. Before we began the development, we conducted an analysis of the previous platform, from a functional point of view, which allowed us to gather not only a list of architectural and interface issues, but also a list of improvement opportunities. It was also performed a small preliminary study in order to evaluate the platform's usability, where we were able to realize that perceived usability is different between users, and that, in some aspects, varies according to their location, age and years of experience. Based on the information gathered during the platform's analysis and in the conclusions of the preliminary study, a new platform was developed, prepared for all potential users, from the inexperienced to the most comfortable with technology. It presents major improvements in terms of usability, also providing several new features that simplify the users' work, improving their interaction with the system, making their experience more enjoyable.