Hybrid fuzzy Monte Carlo technique for reliability assessment in transmission power systems

This paper proposes a new methodology to reduce the probability of occurring states that cause load curtailment, while minimizing the involved costs to achieve that reduction. The methodology is supported by a hybrid method based on Fuzzy Set and Monte Carlo Simulation to catch both randomness and fuzziness of component outage parameters of transmission power system. The novelty of this research work consists in proposing two fundamentals approaches: 1) a global steady approach which deals with building the model of a faulted transmission power system aiming at minimizing the unavailability corresponding to each faulted component in transmission power system. This, results in the minimal global cost investment for the faulted components in a system states sample of the transmission network; 2) a dynamic iterative approach that checks individually the investment’s effect on the transmission network. A case study using the Reliability Test System (RTS) 1996 IEEE 24 Buses is presented to illustrate in detail the application of the proposed methodology.

Power systems reliability calculation based on fuzzy data mining

This paper presents a methodology supported on the data base knowledge discovery process (KDD), in order to find out the failure probability of electrical equipments’, which belong to a real electrical high voltage network. Data Mining (DM) techniques are used to discover a set of outcome failure probability and, therefore, to extract knowledge concerning to the unavailability of the electrical equipments such us power transformers and high-voltages power lines. The framework includes several steps, following the analysis of the real data base, the pre-processing data, the application of DM algorithms, and finally, the interpretation of the discovered knowledge. To validate the proposed methodology, a case study which includes real databases is used. This data have a heavy uncertainty due to climate conditions for this reason it was used fuzzy logic to determine the set of the electrical components failure probabilities in order to reestablish the service. The results reflect an interesting potential of this approach and encourage further research on the topic.

Reliability of nasal auscultation and their relation to middle ear condition – a clinical interest to pediatrics respiratory physiotherapy

Background: Acute respiratory infections are usual in children under three years old occurring in upper respiratory tract, having an impact on child and caregiver’s quality of life predisposing to otitis media or bronchiolitis. There are few valid and reliable measures to determine the child’s respiratory condition and to guide the physiotherapy intervention. Aim: To assess the intra and inter rater reliability of nasal auscultation, to analyze the relation between sounds’ classification and middle ear’s pressure and compliance as well as with the Clinical Severity Score. Methods: A cross-sectional observational study was composed by 125 nursery children aged up to three years old. Tympanometry, pulmonary and nasal auscultation and application of Clinical Severity Score were performed to each child. Nasal auscultation sounds’ were recorded and sent to 3 blinded experts, that classified, as “obstructed” and “unobstructed”, with a 48 hours interval, in order to analyze inter and intra rater reliability. Results: Nasal auscultation revealed a substantial inter and intra rater reliability (=0,749 and evaluator A - K= 0,691; evaluator B - K= 0,605 and evaluator C - K= 0,724, respectively). Both ears’ pressure was significantly lower in children with an "unobstructed" nasal sound when compared with an “obstructed” nasal sound (t=-3,599, p<0,001 in left ear; t=-2,258, p=0,026 in right ear). Compliance in both ears was significantly lower in children with an "obstructed" nasal sound when compared with “unobstructed” nasal sound (t=-2,728, p=0,007 in left ear; t=-3,830, p<0,001 in right ear). There was a statistically significant association between sounds’ classification and tympanograms types in both ear’s (=11,437, p=0,003 in left ear; =13,535, p=0,001 in right ear). There was a trend to children with an "unobstructed" nasal sound that had a lower clinical severity score when compared with “obstructed” children. Conclusion: It was observed a good intra and substantial inter reliability for nasal auscultation. Nasal auscultation sounds’ classification was related to middle ears’ pressure and compliance.

Fuzzy Monte Carlo model for transmission power systems reliability based decision making

This thesis presents the Fuzzy Monte Carlo Model for Transmission Power Systems Reliability based studies (FMC-TRel) methodology, which is based on statistical failure and repair data of the transmission power system components and uses fuzzyprobabilistic modeling for system component outage parameters. Using statistical records allows developing the fuzzy membership functions of system component outage parameters. The proposed hybrid method of fuzzy set and Monte Carlo simulation based on the fuzzy-probabilistic models allows catching both randomness and fuzziness of component outage parameters. A network contingency analysis to identify any overloading or voltage violation in the network is performed once obtained the system states. This is followed by a remedial action algorithm, based on Optimal Power Flow, to reschedule generations and alleviate constraint violations and, at the same time, to avoid any load curtailment, if possible, or, otherwise, to minimize the total load curtailment, for the states identified by the contingency analysis. For the system states that cause load curtailment, an optimization approach is applied to reduce the probability of occurrence of these states while minimizing the costs to achieve that reduction. This methodology is of most importance for supporting the transmission system operator decision making, namely in the identification of critical components and in the planning of future investments in the transmission power system. A case study based on Reliability Test System (RTS) 1996 IEEE 24 Bus is presented to illustrate with detail the application of the proposed methodology.

An approach for reliability-based robust design optimisation of angle-ply composites

Variations of manufacturing process parameters and environmental aspects may affect the quality and performance of composite materials, which consequently affects their structural behaviour. Reliability-based design optimisation (RBDO) and robust design optimisation (RDO) searches for safe structural systems with minimal variability of response when subjected to uncertainties in material design parameters. An approach that simultaneously considers reliability and robustness is proposed in this paper. Depending on a given reliability index imposed on composite structures, a trade-off is established between the performance targets and robustness. Robustness is expressed in terms of the coefficient of variation of the constrained structural response weighted by its nominal value. The Pareto normed front is built and the nearest point to the origin is estimated as the best solution of the bi-objective optimisation problem.

Uncertainty propagation in inverse reliability-based design of composite structures

An approach for the analysis of uncertainty propagation in reliability-based design optimization of composite laminate structures is presented. Using the Uniform Design Method (UDM), a set of design points is generated over a domain centered on the mean reference values of the random variables. A methodology based on inverse optimal design of composite structures to achieve a specified reliability level is proposed, and the corresponding maximum load is outlined as a function of ply angle. Using the generated UDM design points as input/output patterns, an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is developed based on an evolutionary learning process. Then, a Monte Carlo simulation using ANN development is performed to simulate the behavior of the critical Tsai number, structural reliability index, and their relative sensitivities as a function of the ply angle of laminates. The results are generated for uniformly distributed random variables on a domain centered on mean values. The statistical analysis of the results enables the study of the variability of the reliability index and its sensitivity relative to the ply angle. Numerical examples showing the utility of the approach for robust design of angle-ply laminates are presented.

Improving the reliability of WiDom in a single broadcast domain

WiDom is a previously proposed prioritized medium access control protocol for wireless channels. We present a modification to this protocol in order to improve its reliability. This modification has similarities with cooperative relaying schemes, but, in our protocol, all nodes can relay a carrier wave. The preliminary evaluation shows that, under transmission errors, a significant reduction on the number of failed tournaments can be achieved.

Reliability and availability in reconfigurable computing: a basis for a common solution

Dynamically reconfigurable SRAM-based field-programmable gate arrays (FPGAs) enable the implementation of reconfigurable computing systems where several applications may be run simultaneously, sharing the available resources according to their own immediate functional requirements. To exclude malfunctioning due to faulty elements, the reliability of all FPGA resources must be guaranteed. Since resource allocation takes place asynchronously, an online structural test scheme is the only way of ensuring reliable system operation. On the other hand, this test scheme should not disturb the operation of the circuit, otherwise availability would be compromised. System performance is also influenced by the efficiency of the management strategies that must be able to dynamically allocate enough resources when requested by each application. As those resources are allocated and later released, many small free resource blocks are created, which are left unused due to performance and routing restrictions. To avoid wasting logic resources, the FPGA logic space must be defragmented regularly. This paper presents a non-intrusive active replication procedure that supports the proposed test methodology and the implementation of defragmentation strategies, assuring both the availability of resources and their perfect working condition, without disturbing system operation.

Using mobile device detection approaches to augment the accuracy of web delivery content

Recent studies of mobile Web trends show a continuous explosion of mobile-friendly content. However, the increasing number and heterogeneity of mobile devices poses several challenges for Web programmers who want to automatically get the delivery context and adapt the content to mobile devices. In this process, the devices detection phase assumes an important role where an inaccurate detection could result in a poor mobile experience for the enduser. In this paper we compare the most promising approaches for mobile device detection. Based on this study, we present an architecture for a system to detect and deliver uniform m-Learning content to students in a Higher School. We focus mainly on the devices capabilities repository manageable and accessible through an API. We detail the structure of the capabilities XML Schema that formalizes the data within the devices capabilities XML repository and the REST Web Service API for selecting the correspondent devices capabilities data according to a specific request. Finally, we validate our approach by presenting the access and usage statistics of the mobile web interface of the proposed system such as hits and new visitors, mobile platforms, average time on site and rejection rate.

Electricity markets modeling considering complex contracts and aggregators

All over the world, the liberalization of electricity markets, which follows different paradigms, has created new challenges for those involved in this sector. In order to respond to these challenges, electric power systems suffered a significant restructuring in its mode of operation and planning. This restructuring resulted in a considerable increase of the electric sector competitiveness. Particularly, the Ancillary Services (AS) market has been target of constant renovations in its operation mode as it is a targeted market for the trading of services, which have as main objective to ensure the operation of electric power systems with appropriate levels of stability, safety, quality, equity and competitiveness. In this way, with the increasing penetration of distributed energy resources including distributed generation, demand response, storage units and electric vehicles, it is essential to develop new smarter and hierarchical methods of operation of electric power systems. As these resources are mostly connected to the distribution network, it is important to consider the introduction of this kind of resources in AS delivery in order to achieve greater reliability and cost efficiency of electrical power systems operation. The main contribution of this work is the design and development of mechanisms and methodologies of AS market and for energy and AS joint market, considering different management entities of transmission and distribution networks. Several models developed in this work consider the most common AS in the liberalized market environment: Regulation Down; Regulation Up; Spinning Reserve and Non-Spinning Reserve. The presented models consider different rules and ways of operation, such as the division of market by network areas, which allows the congestion management of interconnections between areas; or the ancillary service cascading process, which allows the replacement of AS of superior quality by lower quality of AS, ensuring a better economic performance of the market. A major contribution of this work is the development an innovative methodology of market clearing process to be used in the energy and AS joint market, able to ensure viable and feasible solutions in markets, where there are technical constraints in the transmission network involving its division into areas or regions. The proposed method is based on the determination of Bialek topological factors and considers the contribution of the dispatch for all services of increase of generation (energy, Regulation Up, Spinning and Non-Spinning reserves) in network congestion. The use of Bialek factors in each iteration of the proposed methodology allows limiting the bids in the market while ensuring that the solution is feasible in any context of system operation. Another important contribution of this work is the model of the contribution of distributed energy resources in the ancillary services. In this way, a Virtual Power Player (VPP) is considered in order to aggregate, manage and interact with distributed energy resources. The VPP manages all the agents aggregated, being able to supply AS to the system operator, with the main purpose of participation in electricity market. In order to ensure their participation in the AS, the VPP should have a set of contracts with the agents that include a set of diversified and adapted rules to each kind of distributed resource. All methodologies developed and implemented in this work have been integrated into the MASCEM simulator, which is a simulator based on a multi-agent system that allows to study complex operation of electricity markets. In this way, the developed methodologies allow the simulator to cover more operation contexts of the present and future of the electricity market. In this way, this dissertation offers a huge contribution to the AS market simulation, based on models and mechanisms currently used in several real markets, as well as the introduction of innovative methodologies of market clearing process on the energy and AS joint market. This dissertation presents five case studies; each one consists of multiple scenarios. The first case study illustrates the application of AS market simulation considering several bids of market players. The energy and ancillary services joint market simulation is exposed in the second case study. In the third case study it is developed a comparison between the simulation of the joint market methodology, in which the player bids to the ancillary services is considered by network areas and a reference methodology. The fourth case study presents the simulation of joint market methodology based on Bialek topological distribution factors applied to transmission network with 7 buses managed by a TSO. The last case study presents a joint market model simulation which considers the aggregation of small players to a VPP, as well as complex contracts related to these entities. The case study comprises a distribution network with 33 buses managed by VPP, which comprises several kinds of distributed resources, such as photovoltaic, CHP, fuel cells, wind turbines, biomass, small hydro, municipal solid waste, demand response, and storage units.

Platform for Smart Car to Car Content Delivery: Results of CISTER Research Centre within CarCoDe project

Poster presented in Redes de Veiculos nas sociedades do futuro (RVSF 2015). 3, Jun, 2015. Castelo Branco, Portugal.

Study of the Reliability of Statistical Timing Analysis for Real-Time Systems

Presented at 23rd International Conference on Real-Time Networks and Systems (RTNS 2015). 4 to 6, Nov, 2015, Main Track. Lille, France.

Reliability of Two Methods for Identifying the Postural Phase of Gait Initiation in Healthy and Post-stroke Subjects

This study aims to compare two methods of assessing the postural phase of gait initiation as to intrasession reliability, in healthy and post-stroke subjects. As a secondary aim, this study aims to analyse anticipatory postural adjustments during gait initiation based on the centre of pressure (CoP) displacements in post-stroke participants. The CoP signal was acquired during gait initiation in fifteen post-stroke subjects and twenty-three healthy controls. Postural phase was identified through a baseline-based method and a maximal displacement based method. In both healthy and post-stroke participants higher intra-class correlation coefficient and lower coefficient of variation values were obtained with the baseline-based method when compared to the maximal displacement based method. Post-stroke participants presented decreased CoP displacement backward and toward the first swing limb compared to controls when the baseline-based method was used. With the maximal displacement based method, there were differences between groups only regarding backward CoP displacement. Postural phase duration in medial-lateral direction was also increased in post-stroke participants when using the maximal displacement based method. The findings obtained indicate that the baseline-based method is more reliable detecting the onset of gait initiation in both groups, while the maximal displacement based method presents greater sensitivity for post-stroke participants.