Virtual power players demand response programs management based on locational marginal prices

Power systems have been suffering huge changes mainly due to the substantial increase of distributed generation and to the operation in competitive environments. Virtual power players can aggregate a diversity of players, namely generators and consumers, and a diversity of energy resources, including electricity generation based on several technologies, storage and demand response. Resource management gains an increasing relevance in this competitive context, while demand side active role provides managers with increased demand elasticity. This makes demand response use more interesting and flexible, giving rise to a wide range of new opportunities.This paper proposes a methodology for managing demand response programs in the scope of virtual power players. The proposed method is based on the calculation of locational marginal prices (LMP). The evaluation of the impact of using demand response specific programs on the LMP value supports the manager decision concerning demand response use. The proposed method has been computationally implemented and its application is illustrated in this paper using a 32 bus network with intensive use of distributed generation.

Dynamic artificial neural network for electricity market prices forecast

This paper presents an artificial neural network applied to the forecasting of electricity market prices, with the special feature of being dynamic. The dynamism is verified at two different levels. The first level is characterized as a re-training of the network in every iteration, so that the artificial neural network can able to consider the most recent data at all times, and constantly adapt itself to the most recent happenings. The second level considers the adaptation of the neural network’s execution time depending on the circumstances of its use. The execution time adaptation is performed through the automatic adjustment of the amount of data considered for training the network. This is an advantageous and indispensable feature for this neural network’s integration in ALBidS (Adaptive Learning strategic Bidding System), a multi-agent system that has the purpose of providing decision support to the market negotiating players of MASCEM (Multi-Agent Simulator of Competitive Electricity Markets).

Zonal prices analysis supported by a data mining based methodology

A methodology based on data mining techniques to support the analysis of zonal prices in real transmission networks is proposed in this paper. The mentioned methodology uses clustering algorithms to group the buses in typical classes that include a set of buses with similar LMP values. Two different clustering algorithms have been used to determine the LMP clusters: the two-step and K-means algorithms. In order to evaluate the quality of the partition as well as the best performance algorithm adequacy measurements indices are used. The paper includes a case study using a Locational Marginal Prices (LMP) data base from the California ISO (CAISO) in order to identify zonal prices.

Electricity markets: transmission prices methods

In the context of electricity markets, transmission pricing is an important tool to achieve an efficient operation of the electricity system. The electricity market is influenced by several factors; however the transmission network management is one of the most important aspects, because the network is a natural monopoly. The transmission tariffs can help to regulate the market, for this reason transmission tariffs must follow strict criteria. This paper presents the following methods to tariff the use of transmission networks by electricity market players: Post-Stamp Method; MW-Mile Method Distribution Factors Methods; Tracing Methodology; Bialek’s Tracing Method and Locational Marginal Price. A nine bus transmission network is used to illustrate the application of the tariff methods.

Primary screening of the bioactivity of brackishwater cyanobacteria: toxicity of crude extracts to artemia salina larvae and paracentrotus lividus embryos

Cyanobacteria are a diverse group of Gram-negative bacteria that produce an array of secondary compounds with selective bioactivity against vertebrates, invertebrates, plants, microalgae, fungi, bacteria, viruses and cell lines. The aim of this study was to assess the toxic effects of aqueous, methanolic and hexane crude extracts of benthic and picoplanktonic cyanobacteria isolated from estuarine environments, towards the nauplii of the brine shrimp Artemia salina and embryos of the sea urchin Paracentrotus lividus. The A. salina lethality test was used as a frontline screen and then complemented by the more specific sea urchin embryo-larval assay. Eighteen cyanobacterial isolates, belonging to the genera Cyanobium, Leptolyngbya, Microcoleus, Phormidium, Nodularia, Nostoc and Synechocystis, were tested. Aqueous extracts of cyanobacteria strains showed potent toxicity against A. salina, whereas in P. lividus, methanolic and aqueous extracts showed embryo toxicity, with clear effects on development during early stages. The results suggest that the brackishwater cyanobacteria are producers of bioactive compounds with toxicological effects that may interfere with the dynamics of invertebrate populations.

Evaluation of dynamic pass-through of carbon prices into electricity prices – a cointegrated VECM analysis

This paper addresses the impact of the CO2 opportunity cost on the wholesale electricity price in the context of the Iberian electricity market (MIBEL), namely on the Portuguese system, for the period corresponding to the Phase II of the European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS). In the econometric analysis a vector error correction model (VECM) is specified to estimate both long–run equilibrium relations and short–run interactions between the electricity price and the fuel (natural gas and coal) and carbon prices. The model is estimated using daily spot market prices and the four commodities prices are jointly modelled as endogenous variables. Moreover, a set of exogenous variables is incorporated in order to account for the electricity demand conditions (temperature) and the electricity generation mix (quantity of electricity traded according the technology used). The outcomes for the Portuguese electricity system suggest that the dynamic pass–through of carbon prices into electricity prices is strongly significant and a long–run elasticity was estimated (equilibrium relation) that is aligned with studies that have been conducted for other markets.

Multidimensional scaling analysis of electricity market prices

This paper studies the impact of energy and stock markets upon electricity markets using Multidimensional Scaling (MDS). Historical values from major energy, stock and electricity markets are adopted. To analyze the data several graphs produced by MDS are presented and discussed. This method is useful to have a deeper insight into the behavior and the correlation of the markets. The results may also guide the construction models, helping electricity markets agents hedging against Market Clearing Price (MCP) volatility and, simultaneously, to achieve better financial results.

Persistence characteristics in financial prices: evidence from the portuguese stock market returns

The objective of this article is to provide additional knowledge to the discussion of long-term memory, leaning over the behavior of the main Portuguese stock index. The first four moments are calculated using time windows of increasing size and sliding time windows of fixed size equal to 50 days and suggest that daily returns are non-ergodic and non-stationary. Seeming that the series is best described by a fractional Brownian motion approach, we use the rescaled-range analysis (R/S) and the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA). The findings indicate evidence of long term memory in the form of persistence. This evidence of fractal structure suggests that the market is subject to greater predictability and contradicts the efficient market hypothesis in its weak form. This raises issues regarding theoretical modeling of asset pricing. In addition, we carried out a more localized (in time) study to identify the evolution of the degree of long-term dependency over time using windows 200-days and 400-days. The results show a switching feature in the index, from persistent to anti-persistent, quite evident from 2010.

Long-term dependence in financial prices: evidence from the Belgian stock market returns

This article aims to contribute to the discussion of long-term dependence, focusing on the behavior of the main Belgian stock index. Non-parametric analyzes of the general characteristics of temporal frequency show that daily returns are non-ergodic and non-stationary. Therefore, we use the rescaled-range analysis (R/S) and the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA), under the fractional Brownian motion approach, and we found slight evidence of long-term dependence. These results refute the random walk hypothesis with i.i.d. increments, which is the basis of the EMH in its weak form, and call into question some theoretical modeling of asset pricing. Other more localized complementary study, to identify the evolution of the degree of dependence over time windows, showed that the index has become less persistent from 2010. This may mean a maturing market by the extension of the effects of current financial crisis.

Long-term memory in financial prices: evidence from the Dutch stock market returns

Prepared for presentation at the Portuguese Finance Network International Conference 2014, Vilamoura, Portugal, June 18-20

Demand Response Design and Use Based on Network Locational Marginal Prices

Power systems have been experiencing huge changes mainly due to the substantial increase of distributed generation (DG) and the operation in competitive environments. Virtual Power Players (VPP) can aggregate several players, namely a diversity of energy resources, including distributed generation (DG) based on several technologies, electric storage systems (ESS) and demand response (DR). Energy resources management gains an increasing relevance in this competitive context. This makes the DR use more interesting and flexible, giving place to a wide range of new opportunities. This paper proposes a methodology to support VPPs in the DR programs’ management, considering all the existing energy resources (generation and storage units) and the distribution network. The proposed method is based on locational marginal prices (LMP) values. The evaluation of the impact of using DR specific programs in the LMP values supports the manager decision concerning the DR use. The proposed method has been computationally implemented and its application is illustrated in this paper using a 33-bus network with intensive use of DG.

Toxicity assessment of crude and partially purified extracts of marine Synechocystis and Synechococcus cyanobacterial strains in marine invertebrates

Among the Cyanoprokaryota, the genera Synechocystis and Synechococcus have rarely been studied with respect to potential toxicity. This is particularly true with marine environments where studies about the toxicity of cyanobacteria are restricted to filamentous forms at the warmer temperate and tropical regions and also to filamentous forms at cold seas such as the Baltic Sea. In this study, we describe the effects of cyanobacterial strains of the Synechocystis and Synechococcus genera isolated from the marine coast of Portugal, on marine invertebrates. Crude and partially purified extracts at a concentration of 100 mg/ml of freeze-dried material of the marine strains were tested for acute toxicity in nauplii of the brine shrimp Artemia salina, in the rotifer Brachionus plicatillis and in embryos of the sea urchin Paracentrotus lividus and the mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis. The cyanobacterial extracts, especially the crude extract, had an impact on A. salina nauplii. No significant toxic effects were registered against the rotifer. A negative impact of all strains was recorded on the embryonic development of the sea urchin, with toxic effects resulting in an inhibition of embryogenesis or development of smaller larvae. To the mussel embryos, the effects of cyanobacterial extracts resulted in a complete inhibition of embryogenesis. The results of all assays indicate that Synechocystis and Synechococcus marine strains contained toxic compounds to marine invertebrates.

Analysis of Electricity Market Prices Using Multidimensional Scaling

This paper studies the impact of the energy upon electricity markets using Multidimensional Scaling (MDS). Data from major energy and electricity markets is considered. Several maps produced by MDS are presented and discussed revealing that this method is useful for understanding the correlation between them. Furthermore, the results help electricity markets agents hedging against Market Clearing Price (MCP) volatility.

Valorização da Borra de Café: Otimização da Produção de Biodiesel por Catálise Enzimática

O decréscimo das reservas de petróleo e as consequências ambientais resultantes do recurso a combustíveis fósseis nos motores a diesel têm levado à procura de combustíveis alternativos. Esta pesquisa alicerçada nas fontes de energia renovável tornou-se essencial, face à crescente procura de energia e ao limitado fornecimento de combustíveis fósseis . Resíduos de óleo de cozinha, gordura animal, entre outros resíduos de origem biológica, tais como a borra de café, são exemplos de matérias-primas para a produção de biodiesel. A sua valorização tem interesse quer pela perspetiva ambiental, quer pela económica, pois aumenta não só a flexibilidade e diversificação das matérias-primas, mas também contribui para uma estabilidade de custos e alteração nas políticas agrícolas e de uso do solo. É neste contexto que se enquadra o biodiesel e a borra de café, pretendendo-se aqui efetuar o estudo da produção, à escala laboratorial, de biodiesel a partir da borra de café, por transesterificação enzimática, visando a procura das melhores condições reacionais. Iniciando-se com a caracterização da borra de café, foram avaliados antes e após a extração do óleo da borra de café, diversos parâmetros, de entre os quais se destacam: o teor de humidade (16,97% e 6,79%), teor de cinzas (1,91 e 1,57%), teor de azoto (1,71 e 2,30%), teor de proteínas (10,7 e 14,4%), teor de carbono (70,2 e 71,7%), teor de celulose bruta (14,77 e 18,48%), teor de lenhina (31,03% e 30,97%) e poder calorifico superior (19,5 MJ/kg e 19,9 MJ/kg). Sumariamente, constatou-se que os valores da maioria dos parâmetros não difere substancialmente dos valores encontrados na literatura, tendo sido evidenciado o potencial da utilização desta biomassa, como fonte calorifica para queima e geração de energia. Sendo a caracterização do óleo extraído da borra de café um dos objetivos antecedentes à produção do biodiesel, pretendeu-se avaliar os diferentes parâmetros mais significativos. No que diz respeito à caracterização do óleo extraído, distingue-se a sua viscosidade cinemática (38,04 mm2/s), densidade 0,9032 g/cm3, poder calorífico de 37,9 kcal/kg, índice de iodo igual a 63,0 gI2/ 100 g óleo, o teor de água do óleo foi de 0,15 %, o índice de acidez igual a 44,8 mg KOH/g óleo, ponto de inflamação superior a 120 ºC e teor em ácidos gordos de 82,8%. Inicialmente foram efetuados ensaios preliminares, a fim de selecionar a lipase (Lipase RMIM, TL 100L e CALB L) e álcool (metanol ou etanol puros) mais adequados à produção de biodiesel, pelo que o rendimento de 83,5% foi obtido através da transesterificação mediada pela lipase RMIM, utilizando como álcool o etanol. Sendo outro dos objetivos a otimização do processo de transesterificação enzimática, através de um desenho composto central a três variáveis (razão molar etanol: óleo, concentração de enzima e temperatura), recorrendo ao software JMP 8.0, determinou-se como melhores condições, uma razão molar etanol: óleo 5:1, adição de 4,5% (m/m) de enzima e uma temperatura de 45 ºC, que conduziram a um rendimento experimental equivalente a 96,7 % e teor de ésteres 87,6%. Nestas condições, o rendimento teórico foi de 99,98%. Procurou-se ainda estudar o efeito da adição de água ao etanol, isto é, o efeito da variação da concentração do etanol pela adição de água, para teores de etanol de 92%, 85% e 75%. Verificou-se que até 92% decorreu um aumento da transesterificação (97,2%) para um teor de ésteres de (92,2%), pelo que para teores superiores de água adicionada (75% e 85%) ocorreu um decréscimo no teor final em ésteres (77,2% e 89,9%) e no rendimento da reação (84,3% e 91,9%). Isto indica a ocorrência da reação de hidrólise em maior extensão, que leva ao desvio do equilíbrio no sentido contrário à reação de formação dos produtos, isto é, dos ésteres. Finalmente, relativamente aos custos associados ao processo de produção de biodiesel, foram estimados para o conjunto de 27 ensaios realizados neste trabalho, e que corresponderam a 767,4 g de biodiesel produzido, sendo o custo dos reagentes superior ao custo energético, de 156,16 € e 126,02 €, respetivamente. Naturalmente que não esperamos que, a nível industrial os custos sejam desta ordem de grandeza, tanto mais que há economia de escala e que as enzimas utilizadas no processo deveriam ser reutilizadas diversas vezes.